Daniel Espino was #11 on our midseason top 100 prospects list, and we were not alone in ranking him so high. ESPN, FanGraphs, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB Pipeline all have him within their top 16 as well, despite only making four starts this year before a knee injury shut him down for 2022. Despite the lack of innings, Espino is still commonly considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball due to how elite the fastball and slider “stuff” is. Would he be the best if he had been healthy?
There is a version of Daniel Espino who has the same elite stuff, and actually made 24 starts this year. I’m not talking about some alternate universe nonsense, but his brother from another mother (and father). Meet Prelander Berroa, Daniel Espino’s secret twin.
Fastball
Daniel Espino’s fastball is his best pitch and some scouts have thrown out the generational label when describing it. That label is more than warranted. With a minimum of two fastballs, there are zero major leaguers who average more IVB on their heater than Daniel Espino does with 21.4” across a 151 pitch sample size. Daniel Espino is also averaging 96.6 MPH. There are only eleven starting pitchers in the majors who throw as hard. The combination of velocity and vertical movement would have Daniel Espino tied with Pete Fairbanks for the least drop with gravity on a fastball in the statcast era (min 50 pitches). So yeah, it is a generational pitch.
Prelander Berroa throws a very comparable fastball to Espino’s, even if it’s slightly worse. The fastball comes in just 0.1 MPH slower than Espino’s on average and he tops out at 102 MPH. Berroa throws his fastball on a spin axis just 1.5° off that of Espino’s. Prelander has slightly less vertical movement, but 20.4” IVB is still more than all but seven fastballs in the majors (min two pitches). Prelander Berroa also gets slightly more horizontal movement when compared to Espino. Espino has a generational fastball, but you could argue that Berroa’s was also generational shape if it wasn’t for the presence of Espino’s.
The difference in vertical movement is negligible in measurement, and even more negligible in games. Espino throws his fastball from a release height three inches higher, which is almost exclusively because Espino is three inches taller. The location-independent vertical approach angle is almost completely identical between the two of them. Espino has the slight edge in fastball shape, but it is entirely plausible that with a larger sample, Espino would have fallen down to “only” Berroa levels of movement. (Where he was in 2021)
Slider
Daniel Espino’s slider is almost as feared as his fastball, and it is not that hard to see why when it had a 66.7% whiff rate in 2021, and was again at 63.8% in a small sample this year. The slider is a gyro slider and a hard one at that- sitting at 86.8 MPH this year. The slider has fairly average vertical movement, and 3.4” of sweep. The gyro slutter plays down off of the fastball to the glove side, regardless of where he locates the fastball. Espino baits a ton of swings with the slider coming from the same tunnel and that is no doubt a good things when you miss as many bats as he does. It is once again hard to dispute that Espino throws a 70-grade slider.
Prelander Berroa also throws pretty much the same slider. He throws his slider at the exact same average velocity. Berroa’s slider spin rate is just 7 RPMs higher, and a spin axis that is just 11° off of Espino’s. The movement is less than a single inch on both planes as Berroa averages 1.6” IVB and 2.4” of sweep. The two pitches are identical according to stuff models and have very comparable performance for the most part. This slider is a pitch that could carry both of them to the major leagues. Both Espino and Berroa have an embarrassment of riches in their ability to pair this slider with an 80-grade fastball.
Changeup
Daniel Espino’s changeup is indisputably his worst pitch. He throws it at 89 MPH with nearly as much rise as the average four-seam fastball 15.1” IVB this year is indisputably abysmal, and he has below-average horizontal movement as well. He has shown flashes of greatness in the past, and still misses some bats in the zone, because he uses it sparingly and it catches hitters hunting the fastball off guard, but it can’t be a regular feature in Espino’s arsenal right now.
Prelander Berroa’s changeup is probably not any better- if anything, it is worse. He throws the changeup very hard, averaging 90.5 MPH in a minuscule sample size this year. The changeup also has very little depth to it with just 13.6” IVB. Berroa does at least 2.4” more horizontal movement on his cambio, but he shows even less feel for it. In addition, the lack of velocity separation is crippling for his bat missing abilities in the strike zone. Neither Espino nor Berroa have a remotely good changeup, but I have more confidence in Espino filling this hole in his arsenal if he needs to.
Start the Hype Train?
If Daniel Espino and Prelander Berroa have the same stuff, then why is Berroa not putting up otherworldly numbers as well? There are a few reasons for the lack of hype surrounding Berroa, but a lack of production is not one of them. Berroa splitting time in both the Mariners and Giants minor league system has seen action in both High-A+ and AA. He has excelled according to most definitions of the term at both levels with a 2.33 ERA, and a 3.01 FIP.
You could argue that Berroa is over performing based on his 3.80 xFIP, but I vehemently disagree. Berroa has a sub .250 xwOBAcon this year. His xERA is actually lower than his real ERA this year. Prelander Berroa has performed exceptionally this year, and deserves more attention than he is getting.
That does not mean that Berroa deserves to be in the same ratified air as Daniel Espino, or be on top-100 lists. The stuff measures up to Espino, and tops just about every other minor league arm, but he is very one-dimensional. The difference between Espino and Berroa is mostly just what are at least two full grades of command. Espino has average command, Berroa has disastrous command. The lack of command creates a tremendous amount of bullpen risk for Prelander Berroa.
Command Changes Everything
Daniel Espino and Prelander Berroa miss a comparable amount of bats- Prelander even misses a few percent more than Espino did in his last full season. The problem is that Prelander Berroa struggles to throw strike consistently. Berroa only throws 45% of pitches in the strike zone. Espino throws nearly 9% more than that. The issue is also how bad Berroa’s misses are relatively.
Prelander Berroa has thrown 20.3% of his pitches this year in what is referred to as the “waste zone.” Pitches in the waste zone have a 5.6% chase rate this year. The average major league throws 8.5% of their pitches in the waste zone. Berroa is throwing more than twice that, and the abundance of wasted pitches is leading a lot of walks.
The lack of called strikes because he struggles to find the zone is also a sizable issue, and it limits his strikeout rates relative to the stuff. Berroa struggles to zone both the fastball, and the slider at a respectable rate- Espino has no such troubles so he gets more punch outs despite the same amount of swing and miss. He also can manage his pitch counts better because of his ability to find the zone.
Prelander has elite chase rates when he is not that far out of the zone. His stuff is exceptional, but Berroa will always have a walk problem unless he can learn to locate just a tiny bit better. He can never pitch deep enough to start games if he solely depends on swinging strikes- especially when he is missing so badly to his glove side so frequently.
Right now, Prelander Berroa is tracking as a reliever, and Daniel Espino as a front of the rotation starter. The good news for Berroa stans is that he will probably be an elite reliever. The bad news is it’s still just a bullpen gig. However, just because Berroa is currently tracking as a reliever does not mean that Berroa has to remain pigeonholed into that role. Prelander Berroa has glaring flaws, but I believe they are fixable. How? You’ll just have to check back in a few days when I go in-depth on how I think the Mariners can develop Prelander Berroa into a potential front of the rotation starter.