There is a common belief in the public sphere that BABIP is just luck. They believe BABIP is not sustainable. Players like Randy Arozarena, Tim Anderson, Austin Riley offer evidence to the contrary. They will consistently post high BABIPs year after year, and while there is some year-to-year variance, they don’t just regress to league average every other year. BABIP might not have the strongest correlation (R² of .165 year-to-year) and there are elements of luck in play, but they are not the only determining factor or even the most determining factor.
Three Factors
BABIP is composed of a variety of factors aside from luck; batted ball spin, spray direction, defensive shifts, launch angle tightness, etc. All of those deserve attention, but I will only actually cover three things today. Hard Hit Rate, Sweet-Spot rate, and popup rate form the pillars of BABIP.
The average batted ball at 95+ MPH has a BABIP of .453 in the statcast era. Considering the average batted ball under 95 MPH has a .227 BABIP in that same time frame, it’s not an enormous leap in logic to say that hitting the ball harder means higher BABIPs. This explains why someone like Julio Rodríguez is running a .345 BABIP. Hard-Hit rate is also very stable year to year with an R² of .546.
Sweet-Spot Rate is another core component of BABIP. Sweet-Spot rate is the percentage of a player’s batted balls with a launch angle between 8° and 32°. The average batted ball with a launch angle in that range has a BABIP of .533. Their high sweet-spot rates are why Luis Arráez, Jeff McNeil, Nick Castellanos and several others consistently post .330+ BABIPs. This is probably the most common reason a high BABIP hitter posts high BABIPs regularly.
The last pillar is popup rate. During the statcast era, 7.1% of batted balls are categorized as popups. For all intents and purposes, the average popup is essentially a strikeout, as they average a .021 BABIP against them. The only player to homer on a popup is Joey Gallo (Marco Luciano did so in Eugene last year as well). The variance on popups might not be huge, but the difference between a 2% popup rate and a 7% popup rate is essentially 20+ outs over a full season of plate appearances. Things add up quickly. You probably wouldn’t expect popups to be predictive, but they actually are fairly predictive with an R² of 0.359.
With the three key metrics established, it’s time to look at a few minor league hitters who excel at all three. Those players should hit for a high BABIP and that could carry them past non-elite tools to be productive major leaguers.
Edouard Julien
Edouard Julien doesn’t get the most hype because of his lack of defensive value, and he’s slightly on the older side at 23 in AA. However, he is one of the better hitters in all of minor league baseball. He projects to get on base at a high rate while also hitting for above-average power.
The contact rates are about average for his age group. Julien makes contact on 80.9% of in-zone swings. He has a minor strikeout problem, however, because he works on such deep counts thanks to his extremely patient approach. Julien for better or for worse only swings 35.6% of the time. This comes with the benefit of a 100th percentile chase rate but also means he takes some strikes looking. I’m not advocating he change his approach soon given that he has a career walk rate of over 20% in the minors. You can accept extra strikeouts for such ridiculous rates, even with some expected regression in the majors.
As important as his elite approach is, I think the best skill from Julien is his ability to do damage when he makes contact. Edouard is hitting over .300 this year because of the exceptional BABIP profile despite a 25% strikeout rate. This is because Edouard excels in all three primary factors for producing high BABIPs. For starters, Julien only pops out 1.5% of the time. That is in the 98th percentile. He also finds the sweet spot at a high rate, ranking in the 87th percentile in that field as well.
As exceptional as the barrel accuracy is, where Julien stands out most is in the power department. Edouard Julien hits the ball hard with a 91st percentile hard-hit rate and a 104 MPH 90th EV. There is only average feel to elevate, but he’s frequently hitting at optimal angles to post high ISOs formed equally of doubles and home runs. The three-part trifecta of BABIP has led to Julien posting a .383 BABIP in his minor league career. Obviously, it won’t be quite that high in the majors, but he’ll certainly be above the league-average baseline and that could allow him to carve out an everyday role in the majors despite not having an obvious defensive home.
Colt Keith
Colt Keith is one of the most underrated prospects in baseball. He is currently out with a right shoulder injury that won’t require surgery. However, up to that point, he was posting a 160 PF wRC+ in A+ as a 20-year-old. The Tigers’ fifth-round pick in 2020 stands out at the plate and should be an impact player, in part, because of his elite BABIP profile.
Colt Keith has a contact rate issue. He whiffs 24.6% of the time on pitches within the strike zone. I believe his whiff issues result from a steeper bat angle that leads to Keith struggling with the high fastball. High heat is a somewhat worrying concern for Keith long term that might not have an easy fix. He shows some ability to flatten his swing for pitches up in the zone, but when there is velocity behind it, he can still struggle to get the bat up in time.
Other than the in-zone whiffs, Colt Keith looks like a spectacular hitter. He makes elite swing decisions by not swinging at balls and swinging at every strike. Keith is one of just eight minor league hitters under 25 years old who have a chase rate below 15% and a xZ-Swing over 75%. Those elite swing decisions allow Keith to keep his strikeout rate below 20% despite the whiff concerns.
The incredible damage on contact is what will allow Keith to play in the majors, despite the whiffs possibly rising as he moves closer to the majors. Colt Keith has plus raw power with a 90th percentile EV of 103.2 MPH. That power is consistent too, which is why Keith has posted a 37% hard-hit rate this year.
On top of the plus power, Keith augments his batted ball profile with excellent launch angle control. He has a 37% sweet-spot rate which is in the 94th percentile of minor leaguers, and he has a 95th percentile popup rate. Keith is constantly squaring balls up at optimal angles, and as a result, does significant damage on contact.
There are a bit too many ground balls, and he probably doesn’t go to his pull side enough to maximize the home run power, but he should still post strong wOBAcons. The damage on contact paired with the elite swing decisions could carry Keith past mediocre contact and defensive abilities; probably even, to an everyday gig in the majors.
Grant McCray
Grant McCray has had an incredible breakout season this year on the back of a .394 BABIP. I am here to tell you that his production is not completely unsustainable. A 65% contact rate, and average swing decisions might limit the upside, but I still think McCray might have a future in the major leagues.
Grant McCray never pops out. He has a grand total of two infield flyballs in a 235 batted ball sample. That is the lowest popup rate of any minor league hitter with at least 300 plate appearances. However, I think a large part of his aversion to popups is an aversion to aerial contact, as McCray only has a 21st percentile groundball rate this year. Even so, a 0.8% popup rate is elite, and avoiding automatic outs is a large part of why McCray is running such high BABIPs.
Grant McCray also hits the ball hard and does so consistently. His 90th EV is 104.5 MPH, and he has a 40% hard-hit rate. The hard contact and his ability to go to all fields with high sweet-spot rates mean he finds holes and steals a lot of hits. He has elite HR/FB rates because of the plus power, but just as impactful is the ability to hit the ball in the gap for doubles.
Grant McCray is also a fantastic runner. I think his speed is probably part of why his BABIPs are so absurdly high right now. Against bad minor league defenses, fast players with high groundball rates like McCray often steal a lot of hits.
The BABIPs will fall some as he climbs the ladder because of his reliance on poor defense, but McCray should still be a plus BABIP guy. He’s a fine centerfielder with an above-average arm and should find himself on the bench of a contending team. I think McCray profiles somewhat similarly to Jake Cave, who has stuck in the majors for five years. Cave is a useful major leaguer, and McCray has the upside to be more than just the next Jake Cave.
Moisés Gómez
The Cardinals best hitter in the minors this year by wRC+ has been none of their top 100 prospects- despite having four hitters on our mid-season top 100. Their best hitter has been the 23-year-old minor league free agent signing from the Rays, Moisés Gómez. Gómez profiles similarly to a current Cardinals outfielder who has turned into a productive major leaguer despite some of the same issues. That player is obviously Tyler O’Neill.
Moisés Gómez has very problematic contact rates and is a bit of a free swinger at the plate. His approach is highly volatile and will require elite contact quality to even have a chance of working in the majors. Even with elite contact quality, Gómez will probably strike out too much to be useable in the majors.
Moisés Gomez absolutely drills the ball when he makes contact. He consistently is hitting the ball hard and is doing so at optimal angles. His Hard-Hit rate is in the 99th percentile of minor leaguers, and his sweet-spot rate is in the 97th percentile. Moisés Gómez admittedly has a popup problem with him sitting at 11.2% this year. However, despite that popup issue, Gómez still has the 2nd highest xwOBAcon in the entire minors (Min 100 BBE). The only player above him is Brent Rooker. Rooker is four years older, and given that barrel, accuracy is often age-dependent, I would take Gómez over him in a heartbeat. The contact quality is unbelievable.
Moisés Gómez has that elite contact quality, but it still doesn’t guarantee major league success by any means. Gómez is not a top prospect because the odds are high that he never even gets to replacement level in the majors with the hit tool risk. You have to respect the upside of the contact quality turning him into Tyler O’Neill, but it would be foolish to expect him to be a major league contributor. Moisés Gómez is a very high-risk and high-reward prospect who will be a very interesting rule five decision in the offseason.
Stay tuned for the sequel to this article where I talk about how BABIP is a teachable skill. In that part, I will highlight a few players who do everything right except they produce low BABIPs that drive their production down.