For the most part, the industry as a whole is in agreement. Druw Jones is the consensus top prospect available in the 2022 Draft. Beyond that, there seems to be seven-or-so guys who are interchangeable through pick eight. After that, it’s anybody’s guess. The separation in talent between the guy picked at nine and the guy picked at twenty-nine isn’t terribly vast.
But what if I said Jones could fall out of the Top 10 picks altogether? Now surely, any rational human being with familiarity on how the draft works would say it’s a foregone conclusion he’s headed to Vanderbilt at that point. Well, you’d be wrong.
In speaking with a couple scouting executives this past weekend, the what-ifs surrounding the New York Mets and their two Top 15 picks live rent free in the outmost corners of decision-makers’ minds. If the Mets so wanted, they could probably buy Jones all the way down to the eleventh pick in the draft; their first pick. Here’s how:
The slot value for the number one overall pick in this year’s draft is roughly $8.8 million. The Baltimore Orioles hold that pick and, if history is any indication, they’ll want to cut a deal with Jones a save a bit of money to use on later picks. Considering the slot bonus for the second overall pick in the draft is less than $8.2 million, there should be some wiggle room for the Orioles to shave some off the top and come in a shade under full slot.
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The Orioles have almost $17 million to spend on their 2022 draft class. Let’s be clear. If they want to fit Jones into the budget, they could do so quite easily. But they’ve been frugal in round one in the past and you’d think they’d like as much bang for their buck as possible with that healthy bonus pool.
But what about the Mets? While the Orioles have roughly $8.8 million allocated to their first round pick, the Mets, holding two first round picks, have roughly $9.1 million to spend in the first round. What if Jones wanted to play in the New York market and put his price tag at $9 million? Could the Mets float Jones down the board with the promise of paying him $9 million? They could “punt” the 14th pick and go full slot with every pick moving forward, starting at pick 52.
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Now, sure, there are other teams in a semi-similar situation. Colorado has three picks (10, 31, 38) in the first 40 picks that equate to $9.5 million. But burning three picks for one player for a team largely in a rebuilding phase would be categorically insane. The Diamondbacks have close to $10.5 million to spend on their first two picks (2, 34), but again, Arizona needs quality in volume. They don’t have the luxury of being one player away from a long competitive window. And certainly not a high schooler.
This is a brand-new Mets era. An era bursting at the seams with money, ego, and gall. If there was one team that could splurge on a potential superstar-caliber player in this draft, bullying and buying their way into the bright lights, it’s New York.
Now let’s be clear. There’s hardly been any legitimate rumors regarding this situation in scouting circles. Nobody is saying it’s going to happen. But the idea was brought up unsolicited on two occasions. Is it so farfetched? I don’t think so. Andruw Jones made over $128 million in his career. The family isn’t strapped for cash. They hold more leverage than most top prospects in this position. Could they pilot their way to the destination of their choosing?
It remains to be seen what will happen on July 17, but if he’s still on the board after the first couple picks, don’t say I didn’t warn you.