Top 20 Draft Picks In Best Situations to Succeed - Player Development

It’s no secret that some teams are better at developing talent than others. Some teams flourish developing pitching, while others really do well in developing bats. There’s a track record to prove it with some of these teams. With that said, with over 300 picks in thee books, these players, in my opinion, are best-suited to really flourish with their new ball clubs.

1) 3B Tucker Toman, Toronto

The Blue Jays continue to develop hitters at a clip much higher than the rest of the league. Toman has the clay to become a really impressive big league regular with impressive bat speed and enough athleticism to comfortably stay on the dirt. He’ll be a preseason Top 100 prospect in 2024.

 

 

2)    C Dalton Rushing, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers really know how to mature a hitter both physically and mentally at the plate. Admittedly, their track record with fellow Louisville catcher Will Smith does feel like it cheapens this a bit. Low-hanging fruit? No matter, Rushing has a shot to be a power-first platoon behind the plate a la Omar Narvaez or early Kyle Schwarber.

 

 

3)    3B Josh Kasevich, Toronto

Kasevich’s batted-ball data and swing-decision metrics are better than almost every college bat in this class, but his bat path has limited his upside. It’s a similar narrative to Jordan Westburg in 2020. Sure feels like Toronto can unlock more game power and turn Kasevich into a potential average defensive shortstop or above average third baseman with 25-homer upside. He’s a ways away from that profile right now. Still, the floor right now could be a .270 hitter with a sub 20-percent K-rate.

 

 

4)    RHP Owen Murphy, Atlanta

A bit of recency bias with what the Braves have turned Spencer Strider into of late. Murphy is a spitting image of Strider in terms of a high-efficiency four-seam guy with a dynamic, high-spin breaker. Throw in the athlete that Murphy is and I’m excited to see what’s to come here. Murphy has Top-50 prospect upside from this chair.

 

 

5)    3B Cam Collier, Cincinnati

The Reds are one of the premium organizations when it comes to developing hitters. Couple that with Collier’s age, pure hit tool and track record of handling big velocity and the floor here is already set. Collier’s profile could go several directions. Scouts are split on whether he’s ever going to tap into his plus raw power. Still, I can’t think of many other organizations better suited to maximize his talent. Collier is super-advanced, but Cincinnati can be patient with his ladder.

 

 

6)    RHP Andrew Taylor, Houston

The Astros have a way about handling pitching. It’s a reasonably simple model centered around owning quadrants in the strike zone when the stuff already exists. Taylor throws a ton of strikes and flashes a big breaking ball with plus potential. His changeup is probably his second-best offering. The fastball works as it comes out of a deceptive slot. It’s a package that’s worked for Framber Valdez, and Taylor has a premium body Valdez has never had the luxury of owning.  

 

7)    RHP JR Ritchie, Atlanta

This really boils down to the Braves history of developing pitching. Ritchie has the second-best operation in this class behind Dylan Lesko. He’s as surefire a starting pitcher as you can find in a high school hurler. The Braves should be able to maximize his slider consistency and get him into the 94-96 range with regularity. He’s a rare high school arm that could conceivably move quickly, though he may not have the pure stuff to ever be considered a top-flight prospect. He’s the type of arm that pitches a decade in the big leagues as a stellar no. 3 arm.

 

 

8)    OF Druw Jones, Arizona

This may feel like low hanging fruit, but that’s because it is. The Diamondbacks do a nice job developing hitters and have made it a habit to start ‘em young as teens. Jones is the best clay they’ve ever had, and that’s saying something with Corbin Carroll in the fold. Arizona fans should feel quite excited at what their team can do with Jones, because they’ve shown the ability to maximize tools and impact.

 

9)    RHP Thomas Harrington, Pittsburgh

While Pittsburgh has struggled at the big league level of late, their pitching development has quietly been turning heads in analytic and scouting circles. Harrington is fantastic clay with an athletic delivery, a loose arm and projection throughout. He’s up to 97 with two fastballs and feel for two breaking balls and a changeup. I feel confident the Pirates can get him to his no. 3/4 starter ceiling.

 

 

10) CF Drew Gilbert, Houston

The Astros develop talent better than just about every organization in baseball and Gilbert is a premium talent. It’s plus raw power that he’s not quite tapping into yet. He will. Gilbert is an above average runner with plus instincts on the field, though his impact on the bases were thwarted a bit due to a balky hamstring this spring. He adds stellar defense in centerfield and a big throwing arm too. This is better pure ability than Miles Straw and Chas McCormick. Gilbert will play in All-Star games.

 

 

11) RHP Trystan Vrieling, New York Yankees

The Yankees really know how to develop an arm and Vrieling is a good one. He’s shown the ability to throw volume pitches and has feel for four pitches. It’s a loose arm and an athletic lower half. Vrieling has no. 3/4 starter upside and could be a guy that sits 93-95 with a dynamic breaking ball and a cutter that can give righties fits.

 

12) RHP Drew Thorpe, New York Yankees

A lot of the same here. Thorpe is a projection play in a good system. Thorpe has one of the better changeups in this class, coupled with a fastball up to 96. He’s got a fringier slider, but the Yankees have proven time and time again they can develop a breaking ball. Thorpe was a good value where he was had and has the potential to pitch in a big league rotation for a decade.

 

13) OF Jacob Melton, Houston

Much like Gilbert, Melton has pure tools and a track record of performing in a big conference, anchoring a tough Beavers squad. Melton might not have as good a shot at stick in centerfield as Gilbert, but the potential for a Jake Marisnick type of player is certainly in there. The raw power is sneaky. If Houston can get Melton handling breaking balls with great authority, he’ll soar.

 

14) RHP Walter Ford, Seattle

The Mariners have made a living developing pitchers over the last half-decade. Whether it’s premium guys like Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, or fringier bullpen reclamation projects, Seattle has squeezed immense value out of the arms they dig into. Ford is the best clay they’ve ever had in their system; a teenager up to 97 that could touch 100 in no time. The breaking ball is what Seattle has mastered, and Ford can really snap through a curveball. There’s risk in the high school righty demographic, but the sky is the limit here. Ford is in good hands.  

 

15) C Cade Hunter, Cincinnati

Cincinnati has been one of the best organizations in baseball in developing bats and squeezing value out of bats on the fringes. Hunter does just about everything well, and especially for a catcher. He runs, he hits for power, and he can defend behind the plate. Skeptics aren’t sure on the throwing arm behind the plate, but it’s not often you can find a backstop with this athleticism. The Reds will need to get Hunter consistently handling breaking balls on the offensive side of the ball, but Hunter has big league regular upside.

 

16) RHP Seth Keller, Atlanta

The Braves made a habit of drafting upside prep righties this year, jumping back to their roots. Keller is another good one. He’s a smaller frame than Ritchie, but Keller has a wicked-quick arm and a sound operation riding down the bump. He’s smaller, like Murphy, but the metrics and release traits are really good here. The Braves are big on pitching analytics and turning those traits into weapons. Keller is a great talent to do just that.

 

17) 1B Ivan Melendez, Arizona

Like Jones, Melendez is in a good spot to maximize his tools in Arizona. The DBacks have done well developing power and hit tools from imposing figures. Josh Rojas, Christian Walker and Daulton Varsho are good examples. Melendez will need to hit if he’s going to turn heads with his prodigious, elite power. I think Arizona is well-equipped to get him there.

 

18) RHP Jacob Misiorowski, Milwaukee

The Brewers have turned countless high-octane righties with iffy command into starter-quality guys year in and year out. Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta… they all had command woes at one point or another. Misiorowski is in that same camp. It’s huge stuff, up to 102, but commanding the baseball and working long outings will be his development pillars. I can’t imagine a better organization to rein in that power.

 

19) RHP Gary Gill Hill, Tampa Bay

Tampa develops arms better than just about every organization in baseball, and better yet, they develop unique arms better than most. Hill is a long, extremely lean righty who rides low down the mound with an efficient back-spinning fastball coming from a low slot. He’s got two breaking balls and a changeup too, all of which show promise. This kid is going to add weight and muscle and the Rays are going to take great care of him, putting him into positions to succeed with his unique operation.

 

20) RHP Justin Campbell, Cleveland

As previously mentioned, this is such a classic Guardians pick. Athletic righty with appealing fastball traits and the ability to flip over a promising curveball. Moreover, the changeup is scratching the surface of just how good it can be, some throwing a future “plus” grade on it. Campbell pitches to both sides of the plate and just needs to learn how to pitch backwards and see his weapons miss in safer locations. He’s equipped for success in Cleveland.