The second edition of the Fringe (College) Five is here with five more inconspicuous players from the college ranks. If you missed the initial Fringe (College) Five post, you could learn more about this series by following this link HERE. You can find my methodology and criteria below:
Methodology:
I intend to use available data, game footage, and live looks/scouting reports to fill my fringe five lists.
Criteria:
Must be eligible for the 2022 MLB Draft
Must play at the Division 1 College Level
Can’t be included on the current Prospects Live Draft Board.
This Fringe (College) Five edition will focus entirely on arms. All five pitchers (three from the SEC) are high-octane relievers with big league quality fastballs and questionable strike-throwing ability. There’s a path for each to be an effective major league pitcher, perhaps even an impact arm, but also a high probability that each guy flames out well before reaching the majors.
The next iteration of the Fringe (College) Five will focus completely on college hitters. I hope to fit in at least two more Fringe Five updates before the draft, which begins July 17th. That will give us a solid group of twenty players to track during the draft.
Dylan Ray, RHP, Alabama
Height/Weight: 6’3 / 225
Year/Draft Age: Second-Year Freshman / 21.01
Ray has an extensive injury history, and missed his freshman season last year because of a UCL tear that required Tommy John surgery. He made his Alabama debut in February and was an essential arm out of the bullpen for the Crimson Tide by the season’s end. While the final line may not jump off the page, it’s important to be mindful of the context. Ray is a completely inexperienced DI arm returning from reconstructive elbow surgery in the most competitive conference in college baseball. Ray progressed appreciably from February to May and is still on the younger side for a college draft prospect. Ray’s stuff jumped during the season, touching 97-98 MPH with his four-seamer and pairing it with two distinct breaking balls capable of generating empty swings.
Ray is a physical, thickly built righty that releases from a near over-the-top arm slot. He does a good job keeping his torso closed before exploding down the mound, and overall, Ray moves well on the bump, given his large body. Ray looks like a pitcher who could return to school and get a shot at a weekend rotation spot. He also has a present three-pitch mix with a four-seam fastball, slider, and curveball, giving him another trait that profiles well in a starter’s role. The fastball is a high spinner with strong riding life through the strike zone. Ray was typically in the 92-96 MPH range towards the end of the 2022 college season. There’s way more fastball control than command, but it’s fairly common for command growth to lag behind the other skills for TJ bouncebacks. I like how all of Ray’s pitches sit in different velocity bands. The slider is thrown hard in the mid-80s (topping at 88 MPH) while the curveball sits around 80 MPH. Both are effective pitches, but Ray has really started leaning on his power slider, which has the makings of a plus pitch. Ray is a late riser with a lot of college eligibility remaining, so he could hold out for another year or two to build up his draft stock before turning pro. He’s currently pitching for the Y-D Red Sox in the Cape Cod League and has two scoreless innings to his name in the early going.
Brandon Johnson was anointed the closer by head coach Mike Bianco even without much previous success at the DI level. Outside of a brutal four-appearance stretch in April, Johnson has locked down the 9th inning while flashing premium stuff in the process. Johnson doesn’t have much length to his frame, but he has excellent compact strength and physicality. Johnson is a future reliever all the way as the righty throws with effort during a zippy, up-tempo delivery that features a high arm slot and good downhill intent. Johnson has some explosive actions on the mound, and he’s also a high-energy pitcher with an attack mode mentality. The primary draw for Johnson is the fastball quality and the way it’s gotten stronger throughout the season. Johnson’s max fastball velocity was around 95-96 MPH in the fall but increased to 97-98 MPH towards the middle of the college season. The heater now sits in the 94-95 MPH range, with some of the best fastball carry you’ll see among the 2022 crop of arms. Johnson shows some feel for spotting the pitch to each side of the plate and at the top of the zone, where he can generate most of his fastball whiffs. Johnson will need to tighten up the fastball command as he progresses through his pro career because he becomes homer prone when he doesn’t locate the fastball high enough in the strike zone.
Johnson throws his four-seamer nearly 70% of the time, but he does have a couple of promising secondaries in his curveball and changeup. The curveball will probably end up being the better pitch in the long run since it plays well off his fastball and, as a likely one-inning reliever, Johnson probably won’t need the third pitch. Johnson’s curve has 12-6 shape with snap and power at 80+ MPH. When he’s able to locate the curve below hitters’ knees, it’s an above-average or better pitch that completes his north-south plan of attack. You will likely notice that many Fringe (College) Five selectees are on the older side, and that’s certainly the case with Brandon Johnson, who is already 23 years old. As you’d expect, that limits his draft stock pretty significantly. However, his stuff and continued college performance (Ole Miss is still competing in the College World Series) could drive enough interest his way for an eventual day two “senior discount” selection.
Paul Gervase, RHP, LSU
Height/Weight: 6’9 / 225
Year/Draft Age: Fourth-Year Junior / 22.01
Gervase started his college career at the DIII level and then made stops at two separate junior colleges before landing at LSU. He acclimated nicely by pitching to a sub 2.00 ERA and leading the Tigers in saves with six. Gervase has some major outlier characteristics, and that starts with his height. Gervase has a long, lean, and projectable frame and is one of the taller pitchers in this class at 6-foot-10.
Gervase is an impressive mover, especially given his size. He gets elite extension in his high-effort delivery and releases from a low, almost sidearm slot. This unique size, extension, and low release height combination allow Gervase to attack the plate from a tough angle. Gervase has a lower than average VAA* (vertical approach angle) on his four-seamer while also generating a higher than average amount of arm side run. Gervase’s fastball typically sits in the 92-95 MPH range though he’s shown the ability to crank it up to 96-97 MPH at times. When you combine the velocity with his unique pitch characteristics, you get a very effective fastball, and Gervase’s was excellent this spring. Gervase’s whiff rate on his fastball was well over 30%, and he avoided barrels which limited flyball damage. I have Gervase’s fastball graded as a solid plus pitch presently, and I believe a smart pro team will have a lot to work with to enhance that grade even further.
As with Johnson, Gervase has more control than command but is likely to have more margin for error in terms of missing his spots. Gervase leans on his fastball heavily with a usage rate above 75%. He’ll drop his arm slot to a sidearm or lower position when mixing in a sinking fastball to give hitters a different look. Neither his slider nor changeup are present major-league quality pitches. Gervase’s slurvy slider is a low 80s offering and flashes average, but there’s a limited feel for locating it effectively. He also doesn’t tunnel the slider well off the fastball, making it easy for hitters to pick up. Gervase’s changeup has some potential, but ultimately, I think Gervase will become a fastball/slider reliever at the next level because I see the slider eventually playing better off the fastball with increased usage and further development. Gervase is already 22 years old, and his pitch mix is one-dimensional, which means he’s an older project pitcher. His present velocity and outlier traits should interest progressive clubs in the 7-10 round area or at some point on day three during rounds 11-20. I could see a team such as the Rays, Astros, or Giants molding Gervase into a funky, single-inning relief weapon out of the bullpen.
* For more information on VAA, I recommend checking out this helpful explainer HERE)
Trey Nordmann, RHP, Lipscomb
Height/Weight: 6’5 / 220
Year/Draft Age: Third-Year Sophomore / 21.04
Nordmann made an impression on me during the MLB Draft League last summer where he flashed an explosive mid 90s fastball and a dastardly slider. Nordmann made his way to Lipscomb for the 2022 season, where he showed off his profound, raw stuff as the Bison’s closer. Nordmann set the Lipscomb school record for saves in a season (12), and he had his 95+ MPH fastball to thank for that.
Nordmann’s fastball can get up to 98 MPH and could potentially be an elite pitch at the pro level. Like Brandon Johnson, Nordmann’s fastball has riding action through the zone and generates whiffs at a high rate. He also has two different breaking balls in a low 80s curveball and an 83-85 MPH slider that flashes good sweeping action. The slider is the better secondary and grades out as a near-average pitch presently but with the potential to be above average in the future. Nordmann’s big flaw right now is his command or lack thereof. Nordmann walked more than a batter per inning this spring with a BB/9 north of 11.00. That obviously won’t work at the pro level though he allowed just eight hits on the season, limiting batters to a .066 batting average. That’s Nordmann’s profile in a nutshell; nasty stuff but 20-grade command thanks to high effort mechanics. Several pitchers at the college level have had this type of profile in recent years. One of the more notable examples was Notre Dame righty, Joe Boyle. Boyle was a 2020 fifth-round pick by the Reds and is currently pitching for their high A affiliate in Dayton. Boyle had a similarly elite fastball (Boyle’s heater reached triple digits) but finished his Notre Dame career with a BB/9 of 12.00. Boyle has cut that walk rate nearly in half as a pro and currently sports an ERA below 1.00 this season. Nordmann is unlikely to be selected as high as the 5th round for various reasons, but a pro team will take a shot on the arm talent and work to shape him into a powerful weapon for the later innings of games. Nordmann has considerable upside, and likely won’t cost more than a day three pick.
Alex Hoppe (pronounced Hoppy) didn’t experience much success during his first four seasons at UNC-Greensboro, but he often tantalized observers with premium arm talent. It was a different story for Hoppe in 2022, his fifth season with the Spartans, as he put on some good weight, threw more strikes, and saw his velocity explode. Before this year, Hoppe’s fastball sat in the low 90s, topping at around 94 MPH, with inconsistent life and poor command. In 2022, Hoppe’s average fastball velocity hovered around 96 MPH with a max fastball velocity of 99 MPH. Hoppe throws two fastballs, a primary four-seamer, and a lesser-used sinker. The four-seamer is the better strikeout pitch with a flat plane and riding life in on the hands of righty hitters. The sinker has more run and drop and is better at generating weak contact; however, both pitches are capable of missing bats. Hoppe’s slider is his second most used pitch behind the four-seamer, with a usage rate right around 25%. The slider sits in the 83-86 MPH range, and while it isn’t a high spinner, Hoppe can get good two-plane movement with over 10 inches of sweep, making the slider an average or better pitch.
Hoppe threw a career-high 66.2 innings, accumulating that amount without logging a single start. Hoppe was deployed as a multi-inning reliever for the Spartans, usually pitching 2-3 innings per appearance. That may ultimately be Hoppe’s role at the next level, given his success this year and advanced age. At 23 and a half years old, Hoppe’s most likely draft position is in the 7-10 round range. Hoppe’s command is still below average but is moving in the right direction. The significant growth that Hoppe has shown in a relatively short amount of time is an encouraging sign that perhaps there is another level to his current upward trajectory.