According to sources close to the event, only 70 percent of players who attended the 2022 MLB Draft Combine opted to take Major League Baseball’s pre-draft physical. Those who didn’t take the physical have currently voided their guarantee of receiving 75 percent of their future draft slot bonus. 255 players attended the event. Roughly 180 of those players took the physical.
A new piece of the collective bargaining agreement executed this winter guaranteed amateur players 75 percent of their slot bonus in the MLB Draft. Only players designated as “Top 300” prospects were eligible for that guarantee, so long as they took Major League Baseball’s pre-draft physical. The clause was added to the new CBA to help protect amateur players from being used as pawns for teams to either save money or procure future draft picks awarded to them after failing to sign their draft picks. Some have referred to this new clause as the “Kumar Rocker Rule”, though Rocker never submitted a pre-draft physical in 2021. The New York Mets eventually drafted him in the first round and failed to sign him after he “failed” his physical.
As things currently stand, more than 100 players designated as “Top 300” players in the 2022 MLB Draft will still be able to negotiate deals with teams under that 75 percent guarantee. According to sources, most of the players who elected to forego the physical were older players who lack leverage to return to school and improve their draft stock for 2023.
There isn’t a long history of “top” players receiving less than 75 percent of their slot bonus. In fact, in some cases, players made more money than they likely would have had they been required to take 75 percent of their slot bonus. Prep LHP Frank Mozzicato was selected seventh overall in 2021 by the Kansas City Royals, though most had him pegged a second-round value. Mozzicato signed for $3.55 million, roughly the value of the 17th pick slot bonus. It was just 65 percent of the $5.43 slot value for the seventh pick. Prospects Live ranked Mozzicato the no. 49 prospect in the class. The value of the 49th pick in the draft is just $1.5 million. It’s easy to see why he’d agree to take such a pay cut to go seventh overall.
There are several examples of “Top 300” players taking less than 75 percent of their slot value from the 2021 Draft. RHP Russell Smith, OF Tanner Smith, RHP Chad Patrick, 1B Tyler Hardman, RHP Logan Workman, OF Parker Chavers and LHP Hugh Fisher all ranked inside our Top 300 for 2021 and agreed to less than 75 percent of their slot bonus. In almost every case, they were drafted well-above our ranking and received more than they would have should they have been picked closer to their value spot.
Players electing not to take a physical this year and opt-in to that guarantee suggests advisors (agents) and players still want every bit of negotiable leverage they can possibly own in the draft. In an interview conducted in April, one AL Scouting Director suggested this might happen.
“The new CBA screws older guys, no doubt,” he said. “It takes all the power out of agents’ hands.”
Agents and players have clearly decided to take some of that power back by not participating in the new rule.
It’s impossible to be certain what the ramifications of these players opting out of combine physicals will be until the draft takes place from July 17 through July 19, though it’s probably safe to assume we’re once again going to see a handful of upperclassmen taking signing bonus haircuts on day two of the draft in rounds three through ten. The real intrigue will be whether we see another deal like Mozzicato this year, or ever again for that matter.