Wednesday, April 27th - Indianapolis Indians @ Iowa Cubs
SP Caleb Kilian, Iowa Cubs
Originally drafted by the Giants in the eighth round of the 2019 draft, Kilian really came into form last season when he started throwing harder. This prompted many evaluators to take notice, and he was ultimately one of the prospects received in last summer’s Kris Bryant trade. He threw 15.2 innings with Double-A Tennessee after the trade, but it was during instructs when Kilian began retooling his repertoire. In addition to throwing harder, Kilian added a circle changeup and reshaped his curveball at the behest of the Cubs organization.
Those few changes have increased his raw stuff and, when paired with potentially plus command, have elevated his prospect stock. Rick Mahieu labeled him a 50 OFP in his offseason report, and I went as far naming him for my bold pitching prediction which involved projecting him as a second-half rotation member of the Chicago Cubs and then some. I finally had the opportunity to catch him live in Des Moines, IA on Wednesday, April 27 while the Iowa Cubs hosted the Indianapolis Indians.
Kilian’s tall and lean, but he’s also probably heavier than his listed weight. The official Iowa Cubs roster lists him at 6’4” and 180 pounds, but I’d put him closer to 200 pounds. It’s a good frame that would support more mass in his upper half, but it’s unnecessary because his present stuff is sufficient and he holds up to starter innings. He already has strong quads that he uses to drive and generate velocity off the mound. He throws from a high ¾ slot with clean mechanics once he gets through his long-ish windup. It’s an easy, repeatable motion that generates above-average velocity.
Kilian was fastball-dominant from the beginning of first inning. He throws two traditional fastballs - a 2-seam/sinker and 4-seam - and a cutter. He throws his 2-seam more regularly, but his 4-seam fastball is a bit firmer and was touching 95. He didn’t reach back and hit 97 like he did last year, but his velocity was otherwise in the same range as he’s previously thrown. His 2-seam works 92-93 and shows some natural sink. While he’s capable of throwing it to all four quadrants of the strike zone, he primarily tries to keep it at the corners. He threw it for strikes, but he was getting squeezed by the umpire on both sides of the plate. Regardless, his command of the 2-seamer (and really all of his pitches) was shaky all afternoon. The pitch didn’t generate a ton of swing-and-misses, but it does induce pretty weak contact when he’s locating it. He left it out over the plate several times, but the only real damage was an opposite field homer to Ji-hwan Bae in the third inning.
As noted, Kilian’s 4-seamer is firmer than his 2-seamer, sitting 93-95, and he’ll run it to either side of the plate, but he does prefer to keep it down. The pitch can be a weapon when located down and away or when he’s running it in. He creates solid extension on the pitch and the velocity inside can really jam righties. Kilian’s cutter works 88-91, and the pitch reminds me a lot of the variation former Iowa Cubs rotation stalwart Cory Abbott used to throw. He throws the pitch for strikes, often up in the zone, but it’s more of an average pitch that plays off the 4-seamer and sets up his off-speed stuff.
Kilian’s new circle changeup is a work-in-progress, but it shows good arm-side fade. The pitch is not a present weapon, but he’s still refining his command of the pitch, and I personally liked his ability to mix it in, even if it was used sparingly. The pitch works 85-87, which is just fringy separation from his set of fastballs, but it flashes average to above-average in terms of shape, and I think more repetition will get the pitch to be more viable than it currently is.
I was more encouraged by Kilian’s new spike curve. It has a big, 12/6 action with substantial vertical movement. The pitch can get loopy, and I saw him snap off a couple into the dirt, but I was very encouraged by the overall shape and his confidence in the pitch. It sat 73-79, generated strikes on both sides of the plate, and was thrown in all counts. Like the changeup, I’d still call the pitch a bit of a work-in-progress, but there’s plus potential in the curveball, even if it’s playing closer to average right now. Getting that pitch to plus might be a substantial development for Kilian who currently has a tool bag of mostly average and above-average pitches.
Kilian has been lauded for his plus command for some time, but it was below-average throughout the game, and he ultimately didn’t make it out of the fifth inning. His command drives a large part of his projection, so it was disappointing to see him miss his spots. He didn’t have a great day - his final line was 4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K - but there’s something to be said for mitigating damage when you don’t have your best stuff and/or command. I think he’s a #4 starter if he consistently shows plus command, and there’s room for more if he continues to refine his off-speed stuff. Rick nailed his offseason report, and I agree with the present 50 OFP. I think he’s a Top 100 prospect, albeit more near the backend of the list.
CF Brennen Davis, Iowa Cubs
I believe this was my third or fourth time seeing Davis, and much of what I’ve previously seen is still there: the body, the big bat speed, and the general athleticism. However, Davis’ performance is not near the level that he’s previously shown. Much has already been written about Davis’ struggles to begin the year, so I went into my look with an intent on determining precisely where the issue lies. I have several takeaways.
Davis is far less patient than when I’ve previously seen him. He’s not taking nearly as many pitches as he did in my limited looks last year, and I honestly think he’s just so far into a rut at the plate that he’s simply trying to hit his way out. Numerous hitters have done the same and eventually overcome their struggles. He’s swinging at off-speed stuff that is out and away from him, which has never been his kind of pitch. He’s simply chasing too often. He has the length to cover those pitches, but he’s more of a fastball hitter capable of barreling off-speed pitches in the lower-middle of the zone. He’s not consistently getting those pitches right now because pitchers simply don’t need to throw them. In theory, laying off more pitches will force pitchers to give him something to hit, and better swing decisions will certainly help him make more contact.
What I’m more concerned about right now is his inability to even get the bat on the ball on good pitches. I saw him swing through velocity down the heart of the plate, and those are pitches that he’s previously hammered to all fields. I’ve noticed that he’s toyed slightly with his position in the batter’s box, and I think he’s cognizant of issues with his timing. It’s well-known that batters with long levers are more susceptible to contact issues, and while his swing is not overly long, there's an obvious opportunity here for him to be more direct to the ball.
Ultimately, I think the issue is both mental and physical. Slight adjustments in his stance and/or swing should unlock his promising bat and allow him to break out of this rut he finds himself in. I hate the idea of knocking him down a rung based on about 20 games, but the burden is on him at this point to sustain his prospect status. He needs to hit.
SS Oneil Cruz, Indianapolis Indians
My view of Cruz was largely disappointing. He played shortstop and, while he’s long and solidly rangy at the position, he wasn’t getting to 50/50 balls in the dirt. He showed a strong, plus arm from deep in the hole during warmups, but his in-game performance was much more average. One obvious positive is his body. The man is a legitimate 6’7” and lean throughout. He is as impressive a physical specimen as I’ve ever seen on the field at Principal Park. I spent some time in the press box before the game and everybody was in awe of his physical prowess.
Cruz falls into the same boat as Davis in terms of present offensive performance, but the issue with Cruz appears much more mental. He made multiple mistakes, including dropping a baseball in the field and swinging at pitches far off the plate. He was lost at the plate and, for the better part of the game he was also visibly frustrated. I received a text the night before I saw him from someone watching him that labeled Cruz as “disinterested.” I don’t want to personally speculate as to whether such is true, but it is well-documented (and largely logical) that he was considered for the Opening Day roster in Pittsburgh. He crushed Triple-A pitching in a brief stint last year and ended the season with Pittsburgh.
The raw tools are still there for him to break out of his slump, but it’s going to take some focus and hard work.