Perhaps the greatest organizational asset in any draft is bonus pool flexibility. The new CBA will make it a bit more difficult for teams to find creative ways to save money in the middle rounds. Now, agents/advisors are encouraging their older draft-eligible clients from submitting pre-draft physicals or participating in the Draft Combine. Indeed, the 2022 Draft cycle figures to be one of the most complicated cycles to date for upperclassmen.
The rules surrounding the draft are changing. While some of the new rules should benefit first-year eligible players, upperclassmen could potentially be worse for wear. Starting this summer, the league will introduce a rule that guarantees any “Top-300 Draft prospect” at least 75-percent of his assigned pick value so long as he submits to a pre-draft physical. The top 300 prospects also will be eligible to participate in this summer’s Draft Combine. Last year, the Mets selected Kumar Rocker 10th overall and verbally agreed to a $6 million bonus, only to later rescind their offer when he failed his physical. Rocker, however, did not submit his medicals to teams pre-draft, and he refused to go through a pre-draft physical. So while this rule doesn’t perfectly reflect what happened with Rocker, it does attempt to protect future players from theoretically being used as helpless pawns.
It has yet to be disclosed just how those “Top 300” prospects will be chosen.
But here’s the thing. One could rightly argue that upperclassmen should want nothing to do with being classified as a Top 300 prospect. If you’re a 22- or 23-year-old prospect, as history has shown, teams will want to use your age to creatively leverage its bonus pool. At the end of the day, it might behoove older players from avoiding that honor.
Teams agree. Some team executives and player agents agree that it may be more financially beneficial for older prospects to stay away from top 300 status and the subsequent 75-percent guarantee.
Consider this. A 22-year-old prospect who is deemed by many to be a Top-4 round selection in the 2022 Draft after a big redshirt junior (or senior) year should, in theory, line that player up for a $500,000 signing bonus, the typical slot value for a player selected in the middle of the fourth round. But he’s older, he doesn’t have leverage, and minor league baseball is getting younger. So inherently, teams will try to draw down the signing bonus to use elsewhere in the draft, usually on a high school talent. But the new rules state that any player designated inside the Top 300 prospects is owed 75-percent of their slot value. In this scenario, that would be at least $375,000.
Let’s use 2021 Marlins 4th round pick Tanner Allen as an example. Allen, a standout outfielder at Mississippi State, was selected with the 118th pick in the draft, a slot valued at $488,000. MLB Pipeline ranked Allen as the no. 136 prospect in the draft. We had Allen ranked at no. 119. Naturally, Allen likely would have been ranked among the “Top 300” prospects available in the draft. Allen ended up signing for $248,000, just 50 percent of his slot value. Miami used those $240,000 savings to afford first round selection Khalil Watson.
You could make a pretty logical argument that being in Allen’s shoes in 2022 and electing to keep your name off the top 300 would be more financially beneficial. Maybe he goes in the third round, signs for $350,000 and saves the team who drafted him $500,000. Those types of savings will be tougher to come by, so players with financial flexibility, in theory, could be more sought after. After all, the landscape is tougher for teams who want to be creative with their money.
“The new CBA screwed older guys, no doubt,” one AL Scouting Director said. “It takes all the power out of agents’ hands.”
By my count, the following players were deemed by most outlets as “top 300” players who also signed for less than 75-percent of their slot bonus. It begs the question whether these players would have been drafted where they were if they were to be guaranteed more money under the new system.
· TCU RHP Russell Smith, Milwaukee Brewers, Third Round – 69% of slot.
· Mississippi State OF Tanner Smith, Miami Marlins, Fourth Round – 51% of slot.
· Purdue NW RHP Chad Patrick, Arizona Diamondbacks, Fourth Round – 64% of slot.
· Oklahoma 1B Tyler Hardman, New York Yankees, Fifth Round – 58% of slot.
· Lee U RHP Logan Workman, Tampa Bay Rays, Seventh Round – 62% of slot.
· Coastal Carolina OF Parker Chavers, Chicago Cubs, Seventh Round – 61% of slot.
· Vanderbilt LHP Hugh Fisher, Arizona Diamondbacks, Tenth Round – 67% of slot.
The Draft got more complicated for upperclassmen in 2020 when minor league contraction began. The elimination of an entire level of minor league baseball left far less organization spots for incoming amateur players. Teams had less incentive to draft older players, instead focusing on younger, more projectable players to fill out their low minors. Upperclassmen are viewed more as finished products. That’s not so much the case with second and third-year college standouts. In the eyes of some scouts and front office personnel, an upperclassman should be expected to jump into Double-A the year after they’re drafted, or even sooner in some cases (see: Kevin Kopps).
It seems counterintuitive to want to avoid being designated a Top 300 prospect for any draft. But that is the reality for upperclassmen. Many will likely decline being included on that list and roll the dice to encourage teams to draft them higher with the prospects of a bigger bonus, gladly accepting they’ll be used as leverage for other acquisitions. From this chair, many upperclassmen who rank in the 150-300 range who elect to submit pre-draft physicals and attend the draft combine likely won’t hear their name until day three, then offered the coinciding $125,000 bonus, maybe less. It may make more sense to designate yourself a prospect who can be used as leverage in earlier rounds.
The fact these financial hoops have to be jumped through is undoubtedly frustrating for older players and their representation. Surely, they wish they’d be drafted off their talent and their performative numbers alone. Obviously, it is not that simple.
One thing remains incredibly clear. The draft is still going to be a game of chess and, unfortunately, while advances have been made for first-year eligible college players, there remains work to be done for older breakout players who took a little longer to blossom.