Rookie Ball is undoubtedly the hardest level to scout a player- especially the Dominican Summer League. The lack of quality from most of the competition, combined with a lack of public video makes it a total gray zone in player evaluation- especially in the public sphere. Fans and teams alike have both missed on players with star upside because they failed to pay attention to them.
When Oneil Cruz was traded to the Pirates he had just eight career home runs in 144 career games. He also had a 90th EV of 109.8 MPH which was higher than everyone in the majors that year not named Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Nelson Cruz, or Joey Gallo. He also had a higher contact rate than all four. The data was always fantastic, it just went unnoticed due to launch angle issues.
Cristian Javier didn’t crack the Baseball America Top 30 Astros prospects list until 2018- after he put up a 2.25 ERA in 60 innings across three levels of A-ball. However, did we need to wait that long to know he had a ton of talent? The prior year he had a 2.29 ERA in 51 innings of rookie ball, and that 2.29 ERA was always backed by exceptional pitch data. He averaged 22” IVB on the fastball, but because he was in rookie ball with no pedigree, we ignored it. He now has a 152 ERA+ in just his third MLB season. His greatness was always there, we just didn’t pay attention.
However, for every low minors performer with exceptional output who does succeed, there are dozens who don’t. In the DSL, the average fastball is just 89.6 MPH, and 61% of pitches are fastballs. This means that hitters can dominate just by hitting pitches they will never see in the majors, and that means the production value is completely non-predictive. Additionally, pitchers can dominate just by spamming a 95 MPH fastball or by using a slider aggressively against hitters who have never seen one in their lives.
So how do you tell when the production is sustainable? For hitters? That might be covered at a later date. Pitchers, however, are simpler. You just look at stuff. Is their stuff actually on par with major leaguers? Or are they just beating up on terrible competition? Here are five unheralded pitchers (Outside of PLive) who fall in the former camp and actually have a chance to be impact players at the major league level.
The number in () is their ranking on the Data Driven Top 1000 Pitching Prospects List recently published exclusively on our Patreon.
Reynaldo Yean, Los Angeles Dodgers (197)
Reynaldo Yean is an 18-year-old international signing out of the Dominican Republic during July of 2021 for an amount too small to be made public. In his first pro season this year, Reynaldo Yean put up a 2.96 ERA with a 40.2% strikeout rate in 24.1 innings. For an 18 year old in the DSL those are good results but nothing that would indicate that Yean will be a successful major leaguer.
The pitch data, however, puts Reynaldo Yean in rarified air. The fastball in particular. As an 18 year old, Reynaldo Yean has touched 101 MPH. Picture him as an American who was draft eligible this past year. How high do you think a 6’4 180 lbs RHP who is hitting 101 and averaging 96 MPH would be drafted? Let’s put it this way: There have been 11 pitchers to hit 99+ MPH in a Perfect Game Showcase event. Of those eleven, the latest any of them have been drafted (who has been eligible yet) is the fourth round. He hit 99 on fifteen occasions. This level of velocity at his age is a highly coveted trait that carries a lot of value.
This isn’t just empty velocity though. Yean has some of the best fastball shape in the minors. He averaged 20” IVB on the fastball this year. That is in the 99th percentile of major leaguers. Of all players in the majors or minors who threw 50 fastballs this year, there are six total who have Yean beat in both IVB and velocity. One of them is Daniel Espino, another is his twin, and the other four are some of the best relievers in the entire sport.
The knocks on Yean are numerous. He has a quirky delivery with a ton of spinal tilt to create an over-the-top arm slot with a release height of just 6’. He also only really throws one pitch. His second pitch is a slider at 83.4 with 2.3” IVB and 9.2” HB. He has no command over the pitch, and it’s only average on stuff. He threw a changeup just five times this year. The command and secondary questions will keep him from getting much recognition for now. However, the fastball is an outlier pitch. There is no one better at player development than the Dodgers, and Yean’s fastball is an incredible foundation so he is a name to watch.
Ricardo Yan, Arizona Diamondbacks (722)
Ricardo Yan was not exactly dominant in the Arizona Complex League this year. He put up a 3.75 ERA with 4.43 FIP in 24 innings. He missed bats and got groundballs but he also struggled with walks in a huge way. I don’t actually think Yan is all that much of a notable prospect right now, but he has some unique attributes that give him the potential to be one with minor improvements.
Yan throws from a 4.5’ release height which is an outlier for a starting pitching prospect. He also has a 2.9’ horizontal release which against creates tough matchups. That low release would lead to a four-seam fastball having a very flat VAA, but Yan opts for a ludicrous sinker instead. The sinker has just 1.7” IVB which ranks in the 97th percentile of MLB sinkers. He also throws a sinker with 17.7” of horizontal movement. That is in the 92nd percentile of MLB arms. He has an outlier release with exceptional sink. The sinker only sits at 91.3 MPH, but he still has room to grow into his 6’4” frame and add power to the pitch. If he has league average velocity the sinker should be awesome.
Ricardo Yan also throws an outlier sweeper. The sweeper averages 21.5” of sweep. The full list of pitches in the majors or minors with more horizontal movement is as follows: Rich Hill’s slider. End of list. The problem is, of course, velocity. Yan averages just 73.5 MPH. If he throws it harder or can land it for a strike consistently, it might be a difference maker. Yan also throws an outlier changeup. He throws it 9 MPH slower than the fastball without losing any depth- he actually has more rise as he averages 2.6” IVB. The velocity separation with comparable depth lends itself towards the changeup getting weak contact, but it’s doubtful it misses that many bats. He also has the second most fade of any changeup thrown more than ten times at any level with 22.2” HB.
Ricardo Yan has three freakish pitches with outlier shape, but there are a number of reasons to be skeptical that Yan will find success in the major leagues. For starters, Ricardo Yan is incapable of tunneling any of his pitchers ever. Hitters, especially right-handed ones, will always know what pitch is coming because his slider is so distinct from the sinker with nearly 40” of horizontal separation between them.
The second worry is that Yan doesn’t throw hard enough. That is a question he has to answer, true, but there is still plenty of projection in his 6’4” frame and room for mechanical optimization. The final concern is command. The fastball is the only pitch that Yan can reliably throw for a strike. The top half is consistently late, and it holds him back both in terms of command and velocity. Yan has obvious upside given his feel to create horizontal movement from a low slot, but he’s a long way from doing anything in the majors.
Omar Gonzalez, New York Yankees (4)
When I was designing the Data Driven Top 1000, Omar Gonzalez was the best pitching prospect in baseball during the first draft of it. After reworking the formula to value the quality of their competition more, Gonzalez dropped to… 4th. To call Omar dominant in his 20.1 innings at the DSL last year is an understatement. He allowed just one run, struck out 47.4% of batters, and had a sub 1.5 xERA. Obviously, the 17 year old was incredible. But is it predictive of his future in the majors? I think yes.
Omar Gonzalez has one major thing going for him. Namely, he has the most vertical movement on his fastball of any player at any level as he averaged 24.6” IVB. The second most by any player with a minimum of just one pitch is 23.8” IVB. Could the Yankees DSL Trackman just be broken and over-inflating Omar’s fastball? It seems unlikely. The average Yankee in the DSL has 16.8” IVB. The average fastball in the DSL this year had 16.4” IVB. There is only one other Yankee over 20” IVB in the DSL. Maybe his results are slightly inflated, but it’s still the best fastball movement in the world.
The fastball only sits at 90.5 MPH and tops out at 92.5. He has a very high release point at 6.5’ which means despite the unprecedented vertical movement, the VAA is much more ordinary. Raw vertical movement from a high release can still dominate but it requires being backed up by velocity. Omar will probably fill into his 6’4” frame and add a few ticks to his fastball, but he needs more than just average velocity for the fastball to truly be elite. The potential is obviously enormous though given his unprecedented feel for generating ride on the pitch.
Omar’s secondary of choice is a curveball that sits at 75.4 MPH with almost identical spin rates to the fastball. The curve has close to a mirrored axis but 50% variation in spin efficiency doesn’t help with deception. The high release, however, typically has a positive impact on curveball performance. The changeup shows solid fade and would naturally have great VAA separation from the high fastball when working down in the zone. Command and feel are very much a work in progress as one would expect for a teenager.
Omar struggles to consistently find the strike zone. That did not matter in the DSL where hitters swing at junk constantly, but it likely will lead to walks at the highest level. Omar has a very violent delivery with a lot of twist and recoil, so I’m skeptical that the stuff will hold up deep into games. There’s a lot of excess movement and tilt to create the very vertical slot that gives him such outlier movement. Omar Gonzalez is probably going to wind up in relief, but with a velocity boost, it’s not hard to imagine him pitching in a high-leverage role. You buy in now, while the price is low, because the fastball traits are that good, even if the risk is monumental.
Mauricio Maican, Houston Astros (541)
Mauricio Maican was not good in the DSL this year. He posted a 6.35 ERA because of a 24.8% walk rate. The command is no better than a 30, and he likely has no future in the majors. However, there are some really intriguing data in Maican’s profile that makes him a name to watch moving forwards even if he’s a longshot.
Maican has a fastball with an extraordinary shape. He sits at 93.4 MPH and has plus ride, averaging 19” IVB. What makes the pitch really stand out, however, is his release. Maican is getting 19” of ride from a 5.3’ release height. This leads to him having a mere -3.4° VAA in the top third of the zone. That is in the 99th percentile of major leaguers. The package comes with MLB velocity and has some similarities to another Astro in Cristian Javier.
The slider rates solidly on stuff models. He sits at 80.4 MPH and throws it with over 10” of sweep and just -0.6” IVB. The pitch is an elite called strike pitch when he is landing it for a strike. There is also a curve at 78.2 that has the same sweep as the slider but an additional 12” of drop. Again, it serves as a called strike pitch if he could land it for a strike with any consistency. The changeup rounds out his repertoire and has poor shape, feel, and command.
The appeal of Maican is in the fastball with outlier angles, but the command is likely going to hold him back. Maican lands his breaking balls in the zone less than 20% of the time each. The fastball frequently misses to the gloveside, and the changeup misses low. The upper body is quicker than the lower half and it causes him to pull hard into the gloveside. The stuff is there, and that is worth gambling on but he’ll need considerable mechanical progress to pitch in the majors.
Joel Ibarra, Los Angeles Dodgers (478)
Joel Ibarra wasn’t actually that great splitting time between the ACL and Low-A this year. He logged just a 4.17 ERA and a 4.83 FIP in 36.2 innings. Despite that, I think Ibarra has real ace caliber upside in the rotation and deserves your respect immediately.
The Dodgers signed Joel Ibarra out of Mexico in 2019 for just 300K. At the time, he was a shortstop prospect. However, after a disastrous first season where he hit just .177/.341/.231 in 164 PA, the Dodgers converted him to the mound. 2021 was his first season as a pitcher. In his 23 innings during 2021, Ibarra looked great even with an ERA over 5. Ibarra struck out 31% of batters by spamming an overpowering fastball that sat 92 with over 20” of vertical movement from a 5.4’ release. Not bad for having only just converted to the mound.
This year, Ibarra made some crucial adjustments. He dropped his arm slot, and shifted the fastball shape and release profile. Gone was the overpowering high-ride fastball. Now he throws the overpowering, even flatter fastball that also has a ridiculous tail and is thrown harder too. The fastball now sits at 95 MPH and touches as high as 98. His release height has dropped to just 5’. The fastball lost vertical movement so it now only averages 14.8” IVB- a below-average figure.
However, in spite of the limited vertical movement, the fastball has a flatter VAA in the top third of the zone than it did last year. It also has a flatter VAA than all but six fastballs in the majors. All six are elite pitches. To top it off, the fastball now has 16.2” of horizontal movement. More than all but one MLB fastball (Nick Lodolo). If you call it a sinker then it is the flattest sinker in baseball even ahead of Josh Hader. This is an exceptional hybrid fastball that has an outlier shape both vertically and horizontally. This is because he has nearly 100% efficiency on a fastball over 2400 RPMS on a 1:40 axis.
Joel Ibarra is not a one-pitch wonder either, he has three more standout pitches. The changeup is filthy. He throws it just 8.8 MPH slower than the fastball and has elite fade on the pitch with 18.8” HB. The real draw, however, is that Ibarra kills every inch of lift on the pitch, and has just 2.3” IVB as a result. Coming off the supremely flat fastball at the top of the zone, the contrast is jarring. As such, the changeup should decimate hitters when working down and off the plate.
The mediocre slider he threw last year has been split into two pitches- a cutter and a sweeper. The sweeper sits at 81.4 MPH and has 16.6” of sweep with solid depth at -1.8” IVB. It’s an elite called strike pitch in the strike zone, particularly when working to the armside. The cutter, however, is what builds a working tunnel and should allow Ibarra to collect chases at a high rate- even against upper-level competition.
The cutter sits at 89.5 MPH, and has 7.1” IVB and 3.1” HB. This allows the slider to tunnel off the cutter, which has a vertical tunnel off of the tailing fastball. It makes it hard for hitters to guess when the sweeper is coming, and should lead to chases when located semi-competitively. The cutter is also just a good pitch in its own right.
The catch here is despite his exceptional stuff, Ibarra has not been that dominant because of command woes. However, I am less concerned with the command than I probably should be. First off, Joel Ibarra is only in his second year of pitching. He’s a former shortstop who only recently took the mound for the first time. He’s an exceptional athlete and has great body control. I think getting more comfortable on the mound will do wonders.
It actually already has. He struggled with locating once again this year, but the fastball command is night and day. The changeup command isn’t any worse, even if it affected him more because he uses it more often. The sweeper command was worse than his slider command last year, but the cutter command was better than last year’s gyro. He struggled to locate a new pitch, but that’s not anything too alarming.
I like the delivery, and I love the athlete. He’s young and inexperienced which likely has played a large role in Ibarra’s command issues. As he gets more comfortable, I’m expecting major progress. It’s also notable that given the stuff quality, command is not the end all. Ibarra can still thrive as a starter with below-average command. He has four pitches with promising shape, and real ace potential. It’s too risky to call him one of the best pitching prospects yet, but in a year he could easily be near the top of every list. This is what they look like.