Are Prospect Evaluators Sleeping on Mariners Outfielder Cade Marlowe?

The 20th round in any MLB Draft is generally regarded as organizational filler. That’s no slight to the players selected in that round, but historically speaking, those players generally don’t see the big leagues and instead put in several years of service at the minor league level. That said, unearthing a gem isn’t unheard of. The 20th round has actually produced significantly valuable players at the highest level. Jeff Kent, Ryne Sandberg and Gene Tenace were all 20th round selections. Up in the Pacific Northwest, a 2019 20th rounder is making waves and beginning to catch the eyes of pro scouts.

 

Indeed, Seattle Mariners prospect Cade Marlowe has burst onto the scene this season, posting impressive number across two levels. Marlowe is one of just seven full-season minor leaguers in 2021 to join the 20/20 club (20 homer and 20 stolen bases). He joins Bobby Witt Jr., Anthony Volpe, Josh Lowe, Romy Gonzales, Izzy Wilson and Joey Wiemer with the distinction. It’s no small feat with just a handful of names breaking such a threshold each year.

 

In 2018, only Kyle Tucker, Kevin Smith, Cavan Biggio, Dom Thompson-Williams, Corey Ray and Casey Golden reached such a milestone. In 2019, the list grew a bit larger with ten names joining the club. That year featured the likes of Luis Robert, Jarred Kelenic, Dylan Carlson, Josh Rojas, Sam Hilliard, and Brian O’Grady, to name a few.

 

Reaching the 20/20 club is a significant mark. In fact, from 2014 to 2020, only 40 players got there in a single season. 35 of those players have since debuted at the big league level. Jeter Downs (2019) and Will Benson (2019) are widely respected prospects in the game and are also expected to debut for the respective organizations in 2022, if not sooner. That means of the players to go 20/20 in that seven-year span, roughly 93-percent of them will have played Major League Baseball. Indeed, one could rightfully argue such an accomplishment is a sign of things to come.

 

All that said, Marlowe does have more development in front of him, and hurdles to leap should he hope to become a big leaguer in the not-so-distant future. At 24 years old, The University of West Georgia product is a bit too old for High-A Everett. A promotion to Double-A Arkansas would certainly test whether his mettle is really up to snuff. He’s made it clear he’s quite advanced for his current assignment.

 

While the pure counting numbers have been impressive for Marlowe, he’ll need to cut down his strikeouts if he hopes to hit enough to buoy at the big league level. His 27.3 percent punch out rate is certainly high, but not so outlandish that carving out a path to a big league role is out of the question. Hell, Lowe is running a 26.8 percent strikeout rate and the industry narrative surrounding his future role is pretty positive. Granted that is at Triple-A. Marlowe boasts an 11.4 percent walk rate, and while walk rates at the minor league level are largely anecdotal and not entirely reliable, it does show, if nothing else, he’s willing to be patient at the plate.

Marlowe has generated an average exit velocity of roughly 88 mph this season, right on par with the average for Major League Baseball. His discipline is sublime, only chasing pitches outside the zone 23 percent of the time (30 percent is average), but his contact rate sits just below 70 percent. That’ll need to improve moving forward as the big league average generally sits closer to 80 percent.

Some of the more granular pieces of data suggest Marlowe’s production is real too. Marlowe is currently running a 49 percent fly ball rate at High-A Everett with a minuscule 28.4 percent ground ball percentage. 18.3 percent of his fly balls are leaving the yard.

None of this should be entirely surprising considering Marlowe’s track record. After being selected in June 2019, Marlowe debuted for Seattle’s former Low-A affiliate the Clinton Lumberkings, slashing .301/.372/.438 in 62 games. He slugged three homers and nabbed ten bases along the way. Going back even further, Marlowe slashed .389/.460/.548 with five homers and 48 stolen bases his senior season at West Georgia. He was simply overlooked by most teams in the draft due to his small school/small conference profile.

 

One could argue the kid is scratching the surface of what’s to come. After all, he’s only got 581 career minor league at-bats. We’re not talking about a guy with prospect fatigue here. Marlowe essentially has one minor league season under his belt after being a senior draftee and the subsequent 2020 shutdown.

 

I’ve had the chance to watch Marlowe play three times this season and there are certainly tools here. At 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, Marlowe has a stocky build with much of his strength in his lower half. He runs especially well underway, usually clocking above-average to plus run times home-to-first. Marlowe has a short, compact swing that displays power to all-fields. He does a good job keep his barrel through the zone, though he can be susceptible to off-speed stuff low-and-away. It’s a quiet, calm demeanor at the plate that tends to work a professional at-bat despite the high strikeout rates.

 

Marlowe will be tested in 2022. He’ll be 25 years old for most of the season and will almost certainly see a large chunk of time at the Double-A and potentially Triple-A levels. Scouts I’ve talked to think it’s a high-floor profile at every level with low risk of cratering thanks to his quiet mechanics and supporting physical toolset. Marlowe can play centerfield, but he best projects into a corner with fringier route running ability and an average arm.


Seattle’s system is flush with talent and it’s easy to overlook an older prospect like Marlowe with guys like Julio Rodriguez and Zach Deloach grabbing the outfield headlines. That said, it’d be hard to argue Marlowe isn’t one of the 20 best prospect in the Mariners system right now.