Third base can be a tricky position in terms of scouting. In a lot of cases, college third basemen are destined for first base or a corner outfield role at the pro level. Many of them just aren’t athletic enough to handle the rigors of the hot corner in Major League Baseball. Amateur shortstops often shift to their right and handle third base after adding a little weight and strength.
That may not be the case in 2022. We haven’t seen four college third basemen drafted on day one (first round and competitive balance A) since 2008. That year, Pedro Alvarez, Lonnie Chisenhall, Conor Gillaspie and Ryan Flaherty received such a distinction.
2022 looks to be top-heavy, but there are also some significant sleepers to be found in the later rounds as well. Let’s dive in.
Jace Jung, Texas Tech
Jace, the younger brother to 2018 first round pick Josh Jung, can flat out mash. A power-oriented corner infielder, Jung hit almost .500 as a senior in high school before stepping in and starting immediately for the Red Raiders. He hit four home runs in 16 starts for Texas Tech in 2020 and pumped out 21 more as a true sophomore in 2021. His .337 average was among the best in the Big 12. At 6-foot, 205 pounds, Jung is a thick, super strong infielder with serious thump at the plate. He draws a ton of walks and limits his strikeouts to very healthy levels. Jung doesn’t expand the zone, and his exit velocities are strong enough to suggest a guy who could hit 25 homers per year as a pro.
A second baseman now, Jung will probably move to third base at the next level. He’s got an average arm and fringy lateral mobility, but he’s quick enough on his feet where scouts think he may be able to handle the hot corner. That said, we’re certainly talking about a bat-first prospect who could eventually end up a plus-plus hitter with at least solid average juice. Proven, pure college hitters rarely last long in any draft. Should Jung produce in 2022 as he has in his first two years on campus, he’s a good bet to go on day one.
Jacob Berry, LSU
Simply put, Berry was one of the best hitters in the entire country in 2021. A year removed from anchoring the Arizona Wildcats lineup, Berry transferred to LSU to follow Head Coach Jay Johnson. Berry was not only arguably the best freshman in college baseball in 2021, you could make the argument he was one of the best players in the country regardless of age, slashing .352/.439/.676 with 17 homers. He followed that up with a .375/.463/.844 performance for the US Collegiate National Team including four more homers in just 41 plate appearances. He's a potential plus hitter with plus power. Berry hits from both sides with an optimized swing allowing his raw power to play immediately. It’s a physical, imposing physique with power to all fields and enough speed to be given some credit on the base paths. There’s not a ton of projection left on the physicality side, so teams will want to see the bat play loud in 2022 once again.
We’re evaluating him a third baseman at the next level, though some believe he'll have to shift to first base due to some stiff actions at the position. That will be a tough narrative to crunch next spring as Berry might not be the best defensive option the Tigers have at the position. Scouts want to see the strikeouts tick down a few points, but Berry doesn’t expand the zone and his contact rates are healthy, especially for his archetype. Considering he was an 18-year-old freshman posting the numbers he did, it's nothing terribly alarming at this stage.
Tyler Locklear, Virginia Commonwealth
Now straight out the gates, most evaluators believe Locklear is destined for first base as a pro. But it’s hard to ignore the fact that 64 of his 65 collegiate games have come with him manning the hot corner. Locklear is a really big, burly, barrel-chested kid. At 6-foot-3, 235 pounds, he can flat out pound a baseball. With Jung the lone exception, Locklear posted the highest xwOBA of any third baseman in the country last season (.492).
Locklear has the makings of complete hitter. His .345/.515/.686 slash with 16 homers really paints a picture. He also ranks among the cream of the crop in exit velocities in college ball. If you wanted to nitpick, you could show some concern over his nearly 48 percent pull-side percentage, but even that feels a bit disingenuous. Locklear also hasn’t seen the consistent velocity guys in other conferences have.
Playing in the Atlantic 10, Locklear is going to have to mash in 2022. This summer, the bat proved plenty loud once again. On the Cape with Orleans, he slashed .256/.333/.504 with nine homers. Locklear’s strikeouts and chase rate jumped a bit on the Cape, but not to any levels that should disqualify the bat. More than anything, he was being exposed to stuff he doesn’t see on a nightly basis in Richmond. Locklear won’t be a third baseman as a pro, but it might not matter considering he’s one of the bigger bats in the class.
Peyton Graham, Oklahoma
Graham posted an incredibly impressive freshman campaign hitting .368 and punishing the baseball in 2020. He was slowed a bit in 2021 by strikeouts, but the power took a step forward and he took his walks. The 6-foot-4-inch Sooner has played a good deal of shortstop in his time in Norman, but most believe it’s a foregone conclusion he’ll slide over to third base permanently as a pro. Graham has a good internal clock and soft hands for the position, though he can get in trouble at times with a lower sidearm throw across the diamond. When he’s not right, Graham’s throws can tail down the first base line and occasionally short-hop the first baseman. Still, it’s hard not to envision an above average defender at the position with more grooming. Graham is long-levered and has a smooth routine, not to mention above average arm strength. He just needs to work on the fundamentals of the position, and that should come with time. Remember, he’s still rather new to third base full-time.
At the plate, it's a mature approach that suggests a fairly enticing hitter moving forward so long as the punch outs creep back down as most expect they will. He's got a premier, projectable body with the already-present elite exit velocities you’d expect from a 6-foot-4-inch third baseman. Graham has a propensity to hit the ball on the ground too much at times too. Evaluators would like to see that fly ball rate north of 35 percent in 2022 and for Graham to get the ground ball rate back under 35 percent. If Graham can get his contact percentage up a bit in 2022 and see strikeouts trickle back down south of 20%, he’s the type of player that goes in the front-half of the first round. All the tools are there in spades, he just needs to put it all together, and he’s close.
Cade Doughty, LSU
With Berry in the fold, it’ll be interesting to see who gets most of the reps at third base this spring for the Tigers. My money is on Doughty. The 6-foot-1-inch, 200-pound Doughty is a professional through-and-through. He gets extremely high marks for his leadership inside and outside of the clubhouse and performs on the biggest stages to back up his reputation. Doughty has an impressive, mature approach at the plate and refuses to strikeout. He can chase pitches outside of the zone now and again, but he’ll buckle down with two strikes and won’t sacrifice the at-bat. It's average raw power, though Doughty gets the most of it right now, routinely finding a way to hit the ball over the fence. This is a pretty polished hitter profile with the potential for a 50 hit/50 power run producer at the next level.
Defensively, Doughty is an asset. He’s got really good hands, a quick transfer, and a strong arm with plenty of carry across the diamond. He rounds through the baseball nicely and comfortably projects an above average defender or better at the next level. The only time Doughty can get in trouble is when his throws sail a bit, but even those are few and far between. If Doughty’s bat takes another step in 2022 and he starts hitting the ball with a little more authority, he’s got the blueprint of a day one pick.
Zane Denton, Alabama
Denton was a big league prospect in the 2019 draft, and continues to be a big deal for 2022. A switch-hitter, Denton has good bat-to-ball skills and enough power to make it a significant threat at the plate. He’s got a good feel for driving and lifting the baseball into the gaps. He covers the plate nicely, doesn't chase outside of the zone and makes enough contact to project a future average hitter at the next level, maybe better. Denton is unique in that he’s got average-to-above average raw power from both sides of the plate. He’s not getting to all of it just yet. He isn’t particularly more accomplished from one side of the plate than the other. That’s a good thing.
Denton is a fringy runner and a fringy athlete, though he does have reasonably soft hands that can handle third base. He's got an average arm. The profile may eventually end up at first base at the pro level or into a corner outfield spot, but Denton is still remarkably young with his best defensive baseball ahead of him. Denton still has a bit of projection left in him, so it’ll be interesting to see how physical the profile can become.
Mac Horvath, North Carolina
Horvath is a bit of a wildcard in the bunch. The Rochester, Minnesota product was the 11th ranked high school shortstop in the 2020 draft according to Perfect Game, though he went unselected. Now 6-foot-1, 200 pounds, Horvath is a big, strong kid with a lot of the building blocks of a future contributor at the pro level. He’s still tapping into just how strong he is, especially at the plate. In two years, Horvath has started to engage his hips more offensively, and his swing continues to get shorter, even though he can get extended a little early on pitches away. But Horvath’s strength right now is in his approach. He struck out less than 19 percent of the time in 2021, and chased pitches outside of the zone just 17 percent of the pitches he saw. Now Horvath’s .227/.311/.387 line won’t blow anyone away, nor should it. But if Horvath can find more consistency in barrels next spring, and stay more up-the-middle of the field instead of getting pull-happy, he’s got the foundational mature approach and physical tools to succeed.
Defensively, Horvath still possesses the bounce he had when he manned shortstop full-time. He can make all the angular throws, all of which are supplemented by a plus throwing arm. Horvath’s footwork is among the best you’ll find at the position. As he continues to age into the position, the possibility exists Horvath could be a plus defender at the hot corner. Defensively, he’s an asset.
Of note: Not included on this list are guys like Ethan Long and Cayden Wallace. Those players will publish with different lists.
Others to Watch: Jack Brannigan, Notre Dame; Drew Compton, Georgia Tech; Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State; Josh Rivera, Florida; Sterlin Thompson, Florida; Braylen Wimmer, South Carolina; Brennan Milone, Oregon; Austin Knight, Charlotte; Parker Noland, Vanderbilt; Andrew Benefield, Dallas Baptist; Max Wagner, Clemson; Ethan Lege, Delgado College; Zach Agnos, East Carolina; Kamren James, Mississippi State; Chris Brito, Rutgers; Teddy Burton, Michigan