Each week over the past year our resident card expert Joe Lowry has given everyone on our Prospects Live Discord Baseball Card chat a heads up on what’s dropping in the Hobby. We’re now bringing those posts over to the main site to help keep everyone up-to-date on what is coming out and what might be worthy of your time. This week we have one product being released on October 6th: 2021 Panini Donruss Optic Baseball. ***Update - 2021 Bowman Chrome X was announced post-release and is now included in this week’s article
2021 Panini Donruss Optic Baseball
2021 Panini Donruss Optic Baseball is a lower tier release that is essentially a chrome version of the Donruss Baseball release earlier in the year.
There are three hobby configurations - the standard hobby box, a first off the line (FOTL) hobby box, and a choice hobby box. The standard hobby box will bring you two autographs on average. The FOTL hobby box will bring you three autographs on average with one cracked ice prism and twenty pandora prizms. The choice hobby box will also bring you three autographs on average and one freedom or liberty prizm along with three red or green dragon prizms. Panini had a dutch auction for the FOTL hobby boxes last week and they got really close to their floor of $150 before selling out. Currently you can pick up the various hobby box formats for between $175 - $200. There are likely to be all the various retail formats like we have seen in years past with retail packs, cellos, and blasters.
The design, as mentioned at the top, is a chrome version of Donruss Baseball released earlier in the year. Outside of the chrome finish, the main differentiator for the design are the inserts. You’ll see Mythical, Fort Knox, Neon, Lights Out, and T-Minus 3…2…1! inserts that are not found in the base Donruss Baseball product. The main draw, however, is always the classic Rated Rookie logo and to a lesser extent the Rated Prospect logo. Even though it is an “unlicensed” product, that Rated Rookie logo still holds a fair amount of cachet and value.
The checklist is yet to be released, but expect a slimmed down list of what was found in Donruss Baseball. Likely a majority of the MLB vets and rookies along with a small group of prospects will comprise the final checklist. What we do know from the sell sheet is that on the autos side, we will be seeing at least Jo Adell, Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Torkelson, Greg Maddux, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Luis Robert.
This is arguably my favorite “unlicensed” release every year. I’ve loved the Rated Rookie branding since I was a kid and that love is still strong today. Getting the chrome version of that and not having to pay a significant premium over the paper version is also a nice plus. I probably will find my way into picking up some singles and/or getting into a few breaks as I do every year for this product. One thing to be aware of is that the unlicensed nature will cap value on this product in general, but there will be players that will be able to overcome that hobby prejudice. A final reminder is that since this is a Panini product, the hits are not guaranteed and you can get more or less than what is displayed on the box.
2021 Bowman Chrome X
2021 Bowman Chrome X is now in its third year of production and new to this year is that it is becoming an exclusive Topps Online product where it had previously been a StockX exclusive.
There is one hobby configuration - a single encased card in a hobby box that is being sold for $150 through Topps’ website. It is being offered as a Montgomery Club exclusive at the moment limited to one box per membership and given that it is on 3,570 boxes, it probably does not get a general public sale opportunity. In previous years, this was a PSA-graded card, but given the significant backlog there, as well as at BGS, the other main player in the graded card space, Topps has opted not to spend the money nor face the delays.
The design is exactly what you would find in the 2021 Bowman Baseball and 2021 Bowman Chrome release this year but given the X-Fractor treatment. Essentially the checkerboard pattern that most collectors tend to like including myself. The base cards are out of 31 and are green refractors with red refractors out of 3 and gold refractors out of 1 while the autographs are out of 5 (at this time, no info on the color of the autographed cards).
The checklist just released, and in a departure from previous releases, the typical 70/30 split in favor of prospects over rookies has been changed to an almost 50/50 split (47 base rookies and 53 base prospects). As in years past, there are not any veterans included in the checklist. There usually are very few 1st Bowman cards and the prospects are more focused on the big name guys who have already had 1st cards. But that also seems to have changed with at least 34 of the 53 base prospects and all 11 of the prospect autos seemingly “should” qualify for the 1st Bowman logo. The other three autos in the product will be rookies (Andrew Vaughn, Cristian Pache, and Ha-Seong Kim). Of the big named prospects, you will find Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Bobby Witt Jr., Austin Martin, Adley Rutschman, Wander Franco, etc. Of the potential 1st Bowman prospects from the most recent Bowman Chrome release, you will find all the big names like Carlos Colmenarez, Cristian Hernandez, Victor Acosta, Wilman Diaz, Luis Rodriguez, Pedro Pineda, etc.
I have never purchased any sealed Bowman Chrome X from the primary or secondary markets. I have also never purchased singles on the aftermarket simply because, for my PC guys in past iterations, they weren’t 1st Bowmans, and thus I couldn’t justify the prices they were going for. With them no longer being PSA-graded cards, I am hoping the secondary singles market will not be as high as it has been, but given the primary entry price point, I tend to doubt that. There will likely be a huge rush as these boxes climb in value and people flip the cards as fast they can once ripped. But in the long run, I am a bit skeptical, especially with them not being pre-graded. The only exception will likely be the low numbered prospect autographed cards which will definitely be outside of my comfort level price point.
2021 Topps Rip
2021 Topps Rip is in its second year and was just announced yesterday (Wednesday, 10/6) as an online product going live to Montgomery Club members today (Thursday, 10/7).
There is one hobby configuration which is a single box with a single pack containing four rip cards which each contain a mini card within. The box is the same price as it was last year at $100.
The design of the base card is very “blah” with an action photo but none of the background and a bit less interesting and definitely different than last year. A large geometric shape dominates the background with an additional smaller geometric cut-out on each side. The mini-card contained within the base card is more similar to last year and is very busy with the team name in the background and a large “rip” running through the background.
The checklist is 100 base cards deep with an equal amount of base mini and variation mini cards and comprises various vets, rookies, and retired players. Essentially the same formula as last year, although there are definitely more rookies to be found in the mini cards than in the base cards. This likely is to encourage collectors to rip the base card as opposed to keeping it untouched.
If/when this product gets released to the general public for sale on Topps website, I will be passing. I wasn’t interested last year and don’t have any interest this year. There was some backlash last year in that it did feel like a knock-off and derivative of Allen & Ginter. But for me, it was primarily spending $100 or more for 4 to 8 cards without a guaranteed hit that turned me off. I also am not a fan of the design, and I dislike having to store mini cards in standard card sleeves/top loaders or purchase mini card-specific supplies. While singles can sell decent, this product doesn’t tend to do well in the long term for flipping purposes as you can buy sealed 2020 Topps Rip for roughly $125. Not much of an ROI which further dampens my interest.
Topps NPB Cards
It was announced yesterday (Wednesday, 10/6) that Topps had signed an agreement with Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) to produce and sell baseball cards for all 12 teams for 2021. There was no mention of production past 2021, but it would seem likely that is part of the agreement and just not included in the press release.
Topps will be selling these cards in Japanese card shops as well as through their recently launched Topps Japan website. At the moment, shipping internationally does not appear to be an option, unlike the various Topps European web sites. We will see if this changes as products begin rolling out.
Currently there are three main domestic card producers in Japan - BBM, Epoch, and Calbee. It may be a high bar for Topps to clear given their outsider status as newcomers to the market. My guess is that they will likely try and include Ichiro, Shohei Ohtani, and Hideki Matsui in their NPB uniforms as a throwback insert to try and drive the products. I would love to personally get some cards from these sets assuming that shipping costs direct or via the secondary market aren’t exorbitant. Hoping for good things here, but not holding my breath.