I am going to reiterate a lot of what I said in my This Week in Baseball Cards post in regard to design and configuration for 2021 Topps Update Series. As the majority of the rookie class has disappointed, especially in comparison to previous years, this product will likely have a tough go of it. Part of that disinterest is also a result of how 2020 Topps Update Series went over - it was a complete bomb. Topps shot their shot with the 2020 rookie class for Series 1 and 2 with no one interesting left for Update. 2020 Update still languishes on breaker shelves and sealed wax hoards throughout the land. 2021 Update’s biggest hope is that the Jarred Kelenic believers will invest heavily. I am more interested in Update this year than I was last year (I bought none) simply because I still believe in Kelenic and Andrew Vaughn as well as liking a few more of the rookies like Jonathan India and Alek Manoah.
Design
The base design is the exact same as you will find with Series 1 and Series 2. My opinion hasn’t really changed since we got Series 1 in hand - I like the design with the exception of the names being hard to read. I also like the 70 years of Topps throwback series where we get to see some of our favorite Topps designs of years past. I imagine the Black Gold insert will also be a popular subset as the original from 1993 was a hobby favorite.
Configuration
There are two hobby formats - a regular hobby box and a jumbo hobby box. The regular hobby box guarantees one hit - either an auto OR a relic, which the odds lean towards the relic, plus a silver pack. A hobby box will run about $90 - $110 right now - last year Topps sold them online for $79.99 and I would expect them to come in at a slight increase at either $90 or $100. A jumbo hobby box guarantees you one auto and two relics plus two silver packs. They are running around $200 and up and are typically not sold through Topps’ website. In a bit of a surprise move, Topps announced early in the week that while Jumbo Hobby boxes would go live on Friday, Oct.29 as expected, regular Hobby boxes were being pushed back five days to Wednesday, Nov.2. There will also be all of the standard retail formats with blaster boxes, jumbo packs, loose retails packs, etc.
Additional Notes
A couple of more items to mention before we get to the Main Attraction:
The secondary hunt in this product are the Rookie Debut cards. They are less desirable than the True Rookie Cards (TRC) but can still be a worthwhile runner up. In rare circumstances, they can be very desirable cards, as is the case with the 2019 Fernando Tatis Jr. Rookie Debut card. Since the True Rookie Card of Tatis is horizontal and the Rookie Debut card is the more desirable/hobby friendly vertical orientation, his Rookie Debut card has plenty of supporters.
One of the main purposes of the product is to include players that have changed teams so that when appearing in their old uniform in Series 1 or 2, they will now appear in their current team uniform in Update Series. For example, you can find Andres Gimenez first Flagship rookie card in 2021 Topps Series 1 wearing a Mets uniform. In 2021 Topps Update Series, you will now get a rookie card of Gimenez in his current team’s uniform, the Cleveland Indians.
The other main theme of Update Series past and present is the All-Star game. You will got a lot of inserts, relics and autos based on this event.
The redux set looking at a Topps design of the past will be focused on 1992 Topps, which is a pretty boring choice in my opinion. Maybe I am just spoiled by getting 1952 in Series 1 and 1965 in Series 2, which were great choices.
All teams listed in the Main Attraction are the team that is assigned to the player in the checklist and not necessarily the team they are currently on.
The Main Attraction
The Main Attraction in Flagship releases are the base rookie cards and all of their associated parallels. Collectors typically consider these cards to be a rookie’s True Rookie Card (TRC) and they hold a comparatively significant demand over most other rookie cards. Before we jump into the breakdown of the rookie checklist, a quick refresher on how I roughly think of my Tiers.
Tier One - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that wont end up as designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier Two - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top end power, three true outcomes players, may be great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite. High end SP2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier Three - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short term hobby interest, and most likely long term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit tool only bats, defense first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
Tier One
Jarred Kelenic - Mariners - Struggled after his call up, but finished the year strong with a 135 wRC+ and 7 home runs in September. Even with a tough beginning, Kelenic still finished with 14 home runs and 6 stolen bases in just over half a season of MLB games. That definitely is indicative of a future where he hits 35+ home runs and steals 15 to 20 bases. The Power/Speed combo is potentially there, but will the hit tool we expected be there as well? He finished the year with an above average barrel percentage as well as max velocity, so the talent is there. It really is about him adjusting to MLB pitching. He's a very hard worker and has a strong baseball IQ, so I think he figures it out in the long run and reaches more of his hit tool ceiling of a .290 hitter rather than the floor of a .250 hitter. Given how high the expectations were for Kelenic as a consensus top 2 overall prospect entering the season, the early results really had a lot of people jumping off the bandwagon. I, for one, am not off the bandwagon and I think there are still plenty of hobby believers as well that are keeping his singles prices high. I would get in before he rips up Spring Training and takes off in 2022.
Andrew Vaughn - White Sox - If you look at the surface stats, Andrew Vaughn did not live up to the Top 10 prospect hype in his debut season. Given the proper context, I actually think Vaughn had a solid rookie season and, like Kelenic, I am not at all off the bandwagon. He had to play most of the season in the outfield playing out of position, only had 55 games of minor league baseball under his belt while never playing above High A, and had to play for a less than ideal manager. Even with the deck stacked against him, he still had a hard hit rate in the 81st percentile, a max exit velocity in the 94th percentile, and a barrell rate in 72nd percentile. He'll never steal many, if any, bases, so that will put more pressure on his hit AND power tools to be great to elite. I am still of the opinion that we will see .300 averages with 30+ home runs in Vaughn's future, even if it's not next year in a crowded White Sox lineup with TLR steering the ship.
Tier Two
Jonathan India - Reds - The likely NL Rookie of the Year was a surprise to break camp with the Reds, but he soon proved it was completely warranted. You might ask how I could NOT have a Rookie of the Year in Tier 1, and that is a question I ask myself since I am a Jonathan India fan. The reality is that he has shown in his debut season the profile of what he should mostly be in his MLB career moving forward. A strong OBP approach (he finished in the Top 10 in OBP) with 20 to 25 home run power and 10 to 15 steals. If this wasn't such a down year for the rookie class, India would more than likely be a top 5 vote getter, but unlikely a winner, and I wouldn't question my Tier 2 ranking as much. Not sure if India can take it to another level and what that would look like, but I honestly hope he proves me wrong by taking it to that next level and that this is just the beginning rather than indicative of his future profile.
Alek Manoah - Blue Jays - There were probably a few Manoah believers that saw a debut season like the one he put together, but I doubt there were many. The Blue Jays 2018 1st round draft pick had a spectacular and memorable debut in late May shutting out the Yankees for six innings in Yankee Stadium. He used that as a jumping off point to have a very solid debut season. He finished the season with a 9-2 record, 3.22 ERA, 1.048 WHIP, and 127 strikeouts in 111.2 innings. One of his keys to success was limiting the hard hit rate with a four-pitch mix of a 4 seam fastball, slider, sinker, and a lesser-used changeup. That changeup was really the pitch that got him in trouble the most, so either more development is needed or he needs to ditch it. All said and done, he has a workhorse frame with two swing and miss pitches that also limit the hard hit rate. Right now he looks more like an SP2 than a backend starter with relief risk, which prior to his debut, was his floor. One of the rare rookie success stories in 2021 and, even though he's a pitcher, someone that I think the hobby will hold a more than typical amount of interest in.
Logan Gilbert - Mariners - Came up in mid-May to get 24 starts in his debut season for an up and coming Mariners team. Lives in the zone and starting pitching deeper into games as the season wore on. If you take out a rough August, his numbers look really promising for a young pitcher. Strong control with a four-pitch mix featuring a 95 mph 4 seamer and a slider that has a floor of a mid-rotation starter and a ceiling of an SP2 which gets him a spot at the bottom of Tier 2.
Tier Three
Akil Baddoo - Tigers - Baddoo was the most successful Rule 5 pick this year as he put up a better-than-league average season for the Tigers. The main concern with Baddoo moving forward is his hit tool and getting more than 20 home runs a year - the raw power is there, but it didn't show up often enough in games. On the positive side, he has a really good idea of the strike zone and will likely be putting up 20+ stolen base seasons regularly. I think he is what he showed he is, even at such a young age. A .260 hitter with a strong OBP and a 20/20 stat-line is his most likely future outcomes. I wavered back and forth between putting him at the bottom of Tier 2 and the top of Tier 3, but I'm going with the top of Tier 3 since I haven't fully bought in yet and would like to see him be able to handle left handed pitching better.
Geraldo Perdomo - Diamondbacks - He was a bit of a surprise call-up this year, but it was mostly due to injury fill-in opportunities when Nick Ahmed went to the IL in April and then again in September. Strong defensive skills will allow him to stay at short and give him a reliable floor. Good plate skills and base-stealing speed have been a foundation of his offensive game for a while but he hasn't shown a ton of power. At some point, the power could come given his physical makeup, but we have yet to really see it. Given the projection and the pedigree, he fits into the top of Tier 3. With how he performed in 2021, I wouldn't question anyone who argues he needs to slide down to the bottom of Tier 3.
Trevor Larnach - Twins - When Larnach hits the ball, he can hit it very hard (97th percentile in Max EV). The problem is he doesn't hit the ball often enough, especially when they are not of the straight variety. He's a guy I liked as a cheap buy prior to the season given his home run potential, but until he shows he can put the bat on the ball regularly, he'll hang out in the top half of tier three. Definitely a player to keep an eye to see if he can figure out the hitting side of the equation.
Andres Gimenez - Indians - He was in Series 1 as a rookie card in Mets gear and I ranked him in Tier 3. This time around he gets the Update treatment to show him in his Indians gear, similar to Randy Arozarena last year when he went from a Cardinals uniform in Series 1 to a Rays uniform in Update. Elite defense with speed and decent prospect pedigree give Gimenez a decent floor that keeps him in Tier 3. He performed well in 2020, but didn't do so well with his new team in 2021. He started the season with the big league club, spent the summer in Triple A, and came back in August to finish out a disappointing season in the majors. At his peak, he could be an every day player with a 15/30 statline, which keeps him in Tier 3 for now.
Chris Gittens - Yankees - Typically a Quad-A power bat with a concerning strikeout rate would be in Tier None, but Gittens has some big time exit velos AND he's in the Yankees org. If he wasn't on the most collectable team in the hobby, I would push him down, but there is an outside chance he catches fire, hits 10 bombs in 2 and half weeks, and sells like hotcakes for a month along the lines of Yermin Mercedes, Aristedes Aquino, and Kevin Maas.
Kyle Isbel - Royals - Somewhat of a surprise that we got to see Isbel break camp with the big league team in April, he performed ok, but the strikeout rate was quite high at 42%. He spent most of the rest of the year at Triple A until a mid-September callup. He's a solid prospect all around although his power may not play much at the MLB level. With a floor of a strong side platoon outfielder and a ceiling of a competent every day outfielder that hits for average with respectable power and chip-in steals, he gets slotted into the middle of Tier Three. This is often a Tier None profile, especially on the floor side of the equation, but I think Isbel hits his ceiling more than his floor with potential development for even more.
Daniel Lynch - Royals - One of a plethora of promising Royals pitching prospects, Lynch did not have a good showing at all this year at the big league level as well as in Triple A. The lanky lefty will throw four to five different pitches with the 4 seamer coming in around 93 mph and a slider/changeup mix being the primary secondaries. He has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter, but after this season, it's a much tougher to squint and see that. It's much easier to see his floor of a backend starter becoming the reality. If he can get his fastball velocity up a few more ticks like it has been reported from time to time, suddenly that frontline starter future becomes less of a squint and more of a reality. He'll hang out in Tier 3 as a watch guy that could jump up into Tier 2 or fall into Tier None if he continues to look like he did this year.
Yermin Mercedes - White Sox - Oh how the mighty have fallen. The hottest rookie in the hobby in the first month of the 2021 season, his uber-aggressive approach betrayed him as more and more pitchers took advantage of him (and TLR's management antics didn't help). By the time June rolled around, his confidence was shot and he was sent down to the minors, where he retired for a day or so before rejoining the White Sox Triple A affiliate. The DH role does lead to some of his upside being limited, and we saw probably the peak of his hobby hype already. I think there is still Tier 2 upside in the long term just based on if he could find that magic again, but until then, he will be a watch list player in the top half of Tier Three.
DJ Peters - Rangers - Big time power is the only reason Peters slides into the middle of Tier Three. His game is swing for the fences or miss which likely keeps him from having an everyday role in the long term although he can play all three outfield positions helping his value to a team. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that he hits 40+ home runs with full run, but it likely comes with a .220 average and 220 strikeouts. If/when he does that, sell all of your DJ Peters cards immediately.
Dane Dunning - Rangers - I ranked him in Tier 3 for his initial rookie card in Series 1 and will keep him the same in Update with his 2021 Rangers attire. Acquired from the White Sox in the off-season as part of the Lance Lynn deal, he threw just under 120 innings in 2021 while only making it past 6 innings once. The Rangers in general under-performed and Dunning essentially followed suit, even though it was his first full season after a small seven game sample in 2020. A backend starter that has a slew of pitches, but mainly relies on his sinker, which doesn't lead to him filling up the stat sheet with strikeouts. Sticking him in towards the bottom of Tier 3 with his pedigree and potential ability to become a mid-rotation SP as he develops.
Huascar Ynoa - Braves - A two pitch (4-seam/slider) starting pitcher who looked like he was on his way to becoming a "thing" at the beginning of the season and then torpedoed that by punching an immovable object. Given his two pitch repertoire, there is the standard relief risk, but there is also the healthy Dinelson Lamet ceiling where he becomes a top 25 pitcher and an SP2. For now, I will keep him in Tier 3 as I think that is his most likely outcome (backend starter that occasionally pops), but I can easily see him jumping into Tier 2 with some maturity and development or dropping into Tier None without it.
Vladimir Gutierrez - Reds - Right-handed starting pitcher that struggled with consistency in the minors came off an 80 game steroid suspension from the middle of last year to start 22 games for the Reds starting in late May. Low 90's fastball paired with a slider versus righties and a curveball and changeup vs. lefties. He was pretty much league average and will likely continue to profile as a backend starter. If he does develop further, he justifies his Tier 3 slotting. But given his past challenges and the fact that he couldn't make it through one start without giving up at least one run in 2021, I could easily see him becoming more of a long relief/spot starter in the future. For now I am putting him towards the bottom of Tier 3.
Carlos Hernandez - Royals - Met the higher end of expectations as a backend starter in 2021 with 11 starts, mostly in the second half of the season. Throws a high velocity 4 seamer averaging 97 mph with a mix of secondaries mainly focused on the curveball and slider. If he can take the next step into a middle of the rotation starter, then the Tier 3 ranking is justifiable. On the other hand, if he drifts back into a bullpen/spot starter role where he was at the beginning of the season, he's headed back to Tier None. Someone to keep an eye on.
Luis Patino - Rays - Another player that had his rookie card in Series 1 and we get the Updated version now with his Rays uniform instead of his Padres one. I had him in Tier 3 in Series 1 and will maintain that for Update. If we had absolutely no context and just looked at the statline and role (mostly starting, but still getting some bullpen innings), Patino would absolutely fall into Tier None. Given that he is relatively early in his journey as a pitcher and has some tantalizing velocity and raw stuff with his 4 seam fastball and slider combo, he slides into the bottom of Tier Three. If he can't develop the necessary command and control to stick in the rotation and become the potential SP2 that is his ceiling outcome, he will unfortunately slide down into Tier None.
Gilberto Celestino - Twins - I put him in Tier 3 for his 1st Bowman in the just released 2021 Bowman Chrome and don't feel there is a huge reason to pivot now. He didn't do anything with his 59 MLB at bats this year, but wrapped up the Triple A season by doing what he does best in putting the ball in play without hitting for much power. A floor guy that has the chance to be an every day regular which slides him into the bottom of Tier 3.
Taylor Trammell - Mariners - Given his pedigree as a highly ranked prospect and 35th overall draft pick out of high school back in 2016, I am keeping Trammell in Tier 3. As he has reached the upper minors and especially the big leagues, he has gotten more overmatched by advanced pitching and breaking stuff. He really looked lost at the plate and had no idea what was coming when I watched him at the beginning of the year. He typically ran 22 K% in the minors with the exception of 27 K% in 2019, but had a 42 K% in his 51 MLB games in 2021. He has trended towards more of a speed and defense platoon outfielder, a standard Tier None profile, rather than a potential 20/20 every day starter. For at least one more go around, I am going to hold out a small modicum of hope and keep him at the bottom of Tier Three.
Tier None
Garrett Whitlock - Red Sox - Rule 5 pick that the Red Sox grabbed from their division rival Yankees, making this success story extra sweet. Mostly a sinker baller with mid-90s velocity and a slider and changeup, he was one of the better high leverage relievers in baseball this season. He only got 2 saves, but the Red Sox were mostly uses him as their fireman, and rightly so. He could easily get some closer run in the future or the pendulum could possibly swing the other way and he could get some starter shots, so it's someone to watch as a closer for a top 5 hobby team or if he can figure out how to translate this to a starting job, he can get some Tier 3 interest through that avenue. For now, he slides in towards the top of Tier None as a pitcher to watch.
Brent Honeywell Jr. - Rays - Once one of the most interesting and anticipated pitching prospects in baseball with a bevy of pitches including a rarely seen today screwball, Honeywell has been best by injuries leading to 4 surgeries since 2017. He finally got back on the mound and made his MLB debut in 2021, but spent most of his time working in Triple A Durham with a relatively average results. While starting just under half his games between the MLB and Triple A, it remains to be seen if the path forward is the bullpen or starting. For now, he is an easy Tier None slotting, but he is someone worth watching as he could easily jump up one or even two tiers if he can recapture everything he had prior to his run of injuries.
Taylor Walls - Rays - A plus defender up the middle with doubles power who kept the Rays middle infield positions warm early in the season for the eventual owner (Wander Franco), he didn't set the world on fire in his 54-game sample. Has the skills to be an everyday regular, but doubt he will be much more and lacking the home run power keeps him at the top of Tier None until further development.
Owen Miller - Indians - A 60-game debut season that didn't really change the expected profile of a solid defender, especially at 2B, with average tools across the board. Maybe a bit better with the hit tool, but didn't really put that together at the big league level. The utility player or second division regular projection with minimal in game power hasn't really changed which cements his current Tier None status.
Josh Palacios - Blue Jays - Outfielder with decent speed, an above average hit tool, and not a ton of power. A hand injury took two months of his season away - if not, I think we would have a much better idea if Palacios is more of a left handed platoon bat/second division regular or if there is actual potential trend towards an everyday regular. A Tier None guy with a potential to move up to Tier 3 if he develops further. If he can figure out how to put the ball over the fence regularly without negatively impacting his hit tool, then we can get a LOT more interested.
Tyler Nevin - Orioles - Nevin spent most of the year in Triple A but did get a quick two-game debut at the end of May to be able to qualify for this product and then got run in the last four games of the year. A 1B/LF profile that leans more on the hit tool than the power, he did put 16 balls over the fence in Norfolk, which is more than he's ever done in any previous minor league season. Unfortunately that came with a .227 batting average which leads to long term concerns that if his bat can't play and the power isn't plus, he's nothing more than a platoon or emergency depth bat. That will keep him in Tier None until he can show his expected plus hit tool actually can stand up to advanced pitching.
Mario Feliciano - Brewers - Offensive first catcher that is a free swinger. Had a one plate appearance debut back in May that qualified him for this product, but otherwise he has a long way to go to know what he will end up being. The floor is low and the ceiling is high as long as he can stick at catcher, which is a big question. If he doesn't stick behind the dish, the offensive profile becomes a lot more suspect, and if he does end up catching, there is a question if he can do it full time given his defensive deficiencies. I won’t argue anyone who thinks Feliciano should be in Tier 3, but with all of the questions surrounding his skillset, the catcher penalty, and lack of success in 2021, I am sticking him in Tier None until further notice.
Khalil Lee - Mets - Acquired as part of the three-team Andrew Benintendi trade, Lee is a three true outcome outfielder that also comes with some potential speed to boot. The speed may not show up as he ages since he seems to have bulked up, but he did steal 53 bases in the 2019 minor league season. Strikeouts really are an issue though, and in his 18 MLB at bats in his debut, he struck out 13 times. He most likely ends up as a strong-side platoon outfielder with a small chance at more. Keep an eye out if he suddenly cuts down those strikeouts and still remains effective to see if he can jump into Tier 3.
Alex Vesia - Dodgers - A lefty middle relief option that the Dodgers swapped for Dylan Floro with the Marlins in the offseason, and get an interesting pitching prospect thrown in as well in Kyle Hurt (don't trade with the Dodgers or the Rays). He was very successful this year and features a 94 mph fastball with a slider and to a lesser extent a change up. I can see him getting more high leverage opportunities in his future, but his handedness may prevent him from getting long-term closer run, which keeps him in Tier None.
Bailey Ober - Twins - Backend starter with exceptional command and control with a four-pitch mix and not much velocity. A useful MLB piece, but not a profile that has much hobby interest. At peak, he may be Tier 3 worthy, but won't likely ever get beyond that.
Peter Solomon - Astros - Got some low leverage innings in the bullpen in his small sample size debut in 2021, but he likely fits more into the back end starter role long term, especially if he can continue to improve his command and control. I could see Solomon making the jump up into Tier Three pretty easily just because of the Astros pitching dev, but for now will slot him into the upper half of Tier None.
Nick Gordon - Twins - Former first round pick from 2014 that finally debuted in 2021 with a lot of the prospect shine having dulled. His defensive versatility and speed will likely make him a valuable MLB bench piece. Without some plate approach changes, there isn't much more here than a utility player.
Nick Maton - Phillies - Debuted in late April and was hitting over .300 after his first 27 games causing the hobby to absolutely lose their minds over his 1st Bowman cards which had just come onto the market with the 2021 Bowman Baseball release (I hope everyone sold high). Once June hit, reality started to take hold and he was more like what we expected - a glove-first utility player rather than the second coming of Chase Utley. He spent the rest of the year shuttling between the big league club and Lehigh Valley and didn't make it back up once September hit. The window for Maton's hobby interest seems to have passed and his profile fits into Tier None which is where I will slot him.
Sam Hentges - Indians - Big lefty that split time between the bullpen and starting, but was pretty much a bullpen arm to finish out the season. Appears he may have been a bit of a victim of bad luck, but pretty much the majority of his numbers did not look good. There is still a story to be told with Hentges where he develops into an intimidating left handed starter with velocity, an effective slider, and an already difficult to hit curveball. That outcome is a small one that we should be monitoring for, but the majority of outcomes of a backend starter or lefty bullpen arm will keep him in Tier None.
Jorge Mateo - Padres - Once a highly touted prospect from the Yankees organization, he was part of the A's return for Sonny Gray. The A's moved on in 2020 and sent him to the Padres, who eventually waived him in June 2021 after not doing much of anything for them. Chosen by the Orioles, he had a respectable 32 game sample heavily aided by Jobu, the BABIP god. But then an aching back sent him to the IL for the remainder of the season. His calling card is speed as he is in the 99th percentile of MLB sprint speed in 2021, but that is about it. His future is most likely a bench bat pinch runner type which is another classic Tier None profile.
Ryan McKenna - Orioles - Spent the majority of the season on the big league roster and ended up playing 90 games for the big league squad. Unfortunately they were pretty underwhelming and likely indicative of what we get from McKenna. A safe floor with speed and defense that will make him a valuable bench piece and occasional starter, but a below average hit tool and almost no power to speak of doesn't spark any hobby interest.
Jordan Holloway - Marlins - Big kid with a high velocity fastball that has had challenges with command and control throughout his development. Started a few games, but mostly was a long reliever for the big league club this year. If he ever puts it together as an impact starter, there is potential to move up the tiers, but that is a very small outcome at the moment.
Corey Ray - Brewers - The fifth overall pick in the 2016 draft by the Brewers had all the tools to dream on, but injuries, contact issues, and plate discipline have been his downfall. Speed, defense, and raw power still give him a chance at being a platoon bat in the short term and perhaps he gets some health plus development that leads to an every day role. But any dreams of him being anything above Tier None have long since evaporated.
Jose Devers - Marlins - A contact/speed/defense middle infielder that is allergic to hitting the ball over the fence. In fact, he is only credited with one home run since he started playing pro ball in 2017. He had a shoulder issue in the summer and did not get much run after that - outside of his MLB debut, pretty much a lost season. It's possible he can get into Tier 3 at some point, but without the power, that will pretty much be his ceiling.
Cody Poteet - Marlins - Backend starter that got seven games with the big league club before a knee injury early in the summer. Was trending as org depth until recently, so there's something here, but nothing to get him out of Tier None. And with the Marlins starting pitching depth, he likely is facing an uphill battle for MLB innings in the short term.
Edwin Uceta - Dodgers - A bit of a surprise DFA during the playoffs when Justin Turner went down with hamstring strain in the NLCS to add a journeyman bench bat to the playoff roster. Perhaps the Dodgers already made up their mind he wasn't starter material and was more of the expected floor of a middle relief arm. I was not surprised a second division team picked him up (Diamondbacks). We'll see if they can turn him into the backend starter ceiling that has been a possible projection rather than running him out of the bullpen. Regardless, a lack of success in his debut season and getting DFA'd makes this an easy Tier None call until further notice.
Seth Romero - Nationals - Debuted in 2020 in middle relief for 3 games and then broke his hand on a slip and fall ending his season. Spent time in all four levels of the minors in 2021, but never made it back up to the big league club. Maturity issues in college and injuries as a pro have negatively impacted what was once thought of as a possible middle of the rotation starting pitcher. Lacking an ideal fastball and having to rely on his secondaries with a focus on weak contact as opposed to strikeouts limit his hobby upside. He likely gets a shot at a rotation spot in D.C. this year as a prove it year before being relegated to a bullpen role, so worth monitoring, but likely will never have a ceiling of more than a Tier 3 player. For now, he gets slotted into Tier None.
Travis Blankenhorn - Mets - Bounced around from the Twins to the Dodgers to the Mariners and finally to the Mets at the beginning of June as he was claimed and released on the fringes of these teams’ rosters. And that is just what Blankenhorn is - a basket of fringe tools that allows him to provide depth and utility value from the strong side of the platoon. There may be a little bit of upside if he can put to use his raw power in game and close some of the holes in the swing, but he's a Tier None player until further development changes that.
Jorge Ona - Padres - Had a 5 game debut in 2020 and then spent most of 2021 on the IL due to arthroscopic surgery on his elbow. A power over hit kid with a thick build who doesn't really belong on the field would do best to find a DH role on an AL team or hopefully an NL team if the CBA negotiations actually go positively. Anyways, a limited defensive profile with a lot of potential to end up as a two outcome hitter belongs in Tier None all day long.
Justin Williams - Cardinals - Most likely a platoon outfielder or quad A player on his third organization without much speed or pop. Going to take a lot more than that to get out of Tier None.
Luke Raley - Dodgers - Left-handed platoon outfield depth who can occasionally put the ball over the fence. Like a lot of young hitters, he struggled with the offspeed stuff in the bigs. Doubt we ever see much hobby interest here.
J.B. Bukauskas - Diamondbacks - Acquired from the Astros back in 2019 as part of the Zack Greinke return, the prospect sheen has worn off a bit due to injuries and his fastball velo dipping. In his debut season in Arizona, he was used exclusively out of the pen, mostly in low leverage situations. To be fair, there weren't that many high leverage innings to be had in Arizona this year. His secondaries are still effective and it's possible he could shift into a starting role at some point, but at the moment he's just a Tier None pitcher.
John Nogowski - Pirates - Bench bat 1B that started the year on the Cardinals roster but didn't find any success. Picked up by the Pirates and had a 15 minute hot streak that lead to every deep league fantasy owner picking him up, and then got sent down to Triple A and eventually waived. Giants picked him up and stashed him Triple A as emergency depth, which is likely his future role wherever he goes moving forward. Easy Tier None type of player.
Will Craig - Pirates - Quad A 1B best known for chasing Javy Baez back to home plate instead of just turning around and going back to 1st base for the out. That ultimately led to him deciding to head over to Korea and the KBO for the promise of full time work. Has a little bit of pop, but really nothing to get excited about. Classic Tier None player.
Keegan Thompson - Cubs - Thompson came into the year looking like he had a legitimate shot at one of the many open rotation spots for the Cubs, but ended up getting mostly bullpen innings until some shorter starts to finish up the year. This bullpen usage led to increased fastball velocity as one would hope, but it didn't prove to be an effective increase as his statcast numbers don't look encouraging. Future as a bullpen arm or spot starter/backend SP with only average strikeout potential keeps him planted firmly in Tier None.
Kyle Finnegan - Nationals - After a really nice 2020, he came back to earth a bit in a full season in 2021. Three pitch guy with a sinker as his primary and a slider and split finger as his secondaries. Got some opportunities to close last year and likely will in the future, but doesn't have a dominate closer profile which keeps him in Tier None.
Connor Brogdon - Phillies - Middle relief arm that is mostly a 96 mph 4 seamer changeup guy but will mix in a cutter as well. There could be some future high leverage closer role in his future, so there is an outside chance he gets to a Tier 3 ranking, but for now he will hang out in Tier None.
Will Vest - Mariners - 2021 Rule 5 pick of the Mariners from the Tigers, returned to the Tigers in mid-July. But somehow gets a card for the Mariners. Quick, shot delivery which could cause hitters some problems, it really didn't at all in his 3 months in the big leagues. A backend reliever with maybe some future saves in the cards, but there's really no reason to own his cards.
Tyler Wells - Orioles - Taylor Walls and Tyler Wells in the same product? Well that's not going to cause any breaker to misspeak while opening up packs on camera! Anyways, Tyler debuted at the backend of the Orioles bullpen this year with mid-90's velocity and mainly throwing a slider for his second pitch while mixing in a changeup here and there. He got a fair amount of strikeouts, but when he did get hit, it was regularly for hard contact. Don't see much reason to be interested in his cards and doubt he will ever make it out of Tier None.
Patrick Weigel - Brewers - Low leverage bullpen arm that is basically an up and down arm. Acquired from the Braves as part of the deal for Orlando Arcia is about the best I can say about him. Classic Tier None rookie.
Ryan Hendrix - Reds - Debuted in 2021 as a low leverage reliever in an unsettled Reds bullpen featuring a Slider Fastball combo. He may figure into more high leverage situations in the future, but still won’t be able to find his way out of Tier None. Unless he’s related to Jimi and plays a mean guitar - then we’ll be cooking with gas.
Franklyn Kilome - Mets - Big kid with a lot of raw talent that doesn't seem to translate into baseball dominance. Small sample debut in 2020 that did not go well and spent all of 2021 in Triple A with most of that coming out of the pen. Doesn't look like his future is in the rotation as once thought and his best outcome is high leverage bullpen innings. Hard to see his cards having much future value.
Aaron Fletcher - Mariners - Potential for a high leverage relief role but has not been able to stick in his two short stints with the big league club in 2020 and 2021. Moved off of starting a few years ago, so we don't have much ceiling to speculate on which locks him into Tier None.
Luis Gonzalez - White Sox - Waived by the White Sox in early August as part of a roster crunch and with shoulder surgery on the horizon, he is now on the Giants 60 day IL. An outfielder with a set of average tools with a bit less on the power side, he likely ends up as a second division regular or platoon/bench bat. Nothing to be excited about at the moment and an easy Tier None call.
Angel Rondon - Cardinals - Backend SP or long relief profile without overwhelming stuff that pitches to induce weak contact. No reason for any hobby interest with that type of profile.
Victor Gonzalez - Dodgers - In a small sample size debut in 2020, the lefty middle reliever absolutely shined for the Dodgers. However, in 2021, he was more around league average as a nice left-handed bullpen piece, but not likely the future closer type of arm that some may have been dreaming about after 2020. Clear Tier None profile.
Kyle Funkhouser - Tigers - A bullpen arm that got some high leverage innings this season as well as couple of opener games thrown in for good measure. Came to rely on his sinker more throughout the season which helped induce weak contact. While a closer role may be part of his future, the low strikeout rate wont get much hobby interest.
Antonio Santos - Rockies - More effective out of the bullpen where he can get his fastball velocity up to the mid-90s, he was originally targeted for the rotation but as he hasn't taken a jump forward on the pitches, he's been shifted to the pen as a low leverage arm. Nothing to see here.
Joey Gerber - Mariners - Potential for a high leverage bullpen role featuring a decent fastball slider combo, but underwent back surgery early in the summer. A pitcher with back surgery is a huge stay away signal for me and makes this an easy Tier None call.
Nick Nelson - Yankees - Transitioned to a bullpen over the past couple of years and features a 4 seamer that goes around 96 mph paired with a changeup. Has not found much success in his small sample debut in 2020 or in 2021 and there isn't much to get excited about with this relief profile unless his fastball becomes a lot harder to hit.
Ka’ai Tom - Pirates - Rule 5 pick from the Cleveland Baseball Team in the off-season by the A's, then released after seven games and picked up by the Pirates for 39 games. Released again and picked up the Giants and stashed in the minors to see if there is anything left of interest, but essentially an emergency depth outfielder at this point which is a typical Tier None player.
Ben Rortvedt - Twins - Defense first catcher with a limited offensive profile. Not much more to say without offensive profile changes. Classic Tier None.
Tyson Miller - Cubs - Doesn't have spectacular stuff, but has strong command of his fastball and can manipulate it well. Likeliest outcome for him is a swingman. Very little to be interested in here.
Ali Sanchez - Cardinals - Defense first backup catcher acquired from the Mets in the off-season, likely as a stopgap while Yadier was still not signed (there was a 10-day gap between bringing in Sanchez and Yadi re-signing, so this may or may not be a thing) and a bridge to Ivan Herrera. No argument for anything but Tier None here.
Kohei Arihara - Rangers - A Japanese import that didn't have much velocity and instead relied on the kitchen sink repertoire, he signed with the Rangers for his rookie MLB season at the age of 28 and things did not go as planned. He had four decent to good starts to kick off the year, but then had three really bad ones before going on the 60 day IL for the majority of the rest of the season. Got a few games in September and then the Rangers DFA'd him, which was a bit surprising given that he had a two-year deal at not a lot of money. Not sure if he sticks around next year or heads back to the NPB, but I don't see any reason for him to be anywhere but Tier None given the situation.
Hirokazu Sawamura - Red Sox - 32 year old rookie that came over from the NPB (Japan) to pitch in the Red Sox bullpen. Mostly threw in the middle innings although occasionally was looked to get a hold. Pretty hard to see any hobby interest here even from Japan as he only had two years as a closer and that was the middle of the last decade.
Tyler Ivey - Astros - Low velocity fastball keeps Ivey from being able to be looked at as anything more than a bulk innings/backend starter guy even with his sexy curveball. Only got one start in his debut and was sent back down after that, so not much to work with, but Topps was sure excited to get another Pitcher into the product. Not much here for the hobby which keeps him in Tier None.
Jimmy Lambert - White Sox - Spot starter that features a four pitch mix with nothing plus, but everything attacking the zone. Had TJ in 2019 and arm soreness when he came back in 2020. That's not great, and I don't think we will get to a point where we have any hobby interest in his cards, so Tier None it is.
Sterling Sharp - Nationals - A rule 5 pick of the Marlins in 2020 that got a few major league games in before getting returned to the Nationals. He has still yet to get any MLB time with the Nationals before or after but somehow is getting a rookie card for the Nationals. It would be quite the hobby trivia that if he never gets any MLB run again, yet still has a rookie card for a team he never pitched for in the big leagues. However, his soft tossing backend starter profile probably gets back to the bigs for a second division team or as a spot starter. All that said, it’s going to be real tough for Sharp to ever make it out of Tier None.
Ashton Goudeau - Rockies - Goudeau has been in at least 8 different MLB organizations and he finished up the season by returning to the team he was on for a brief two weeks in late April in the Rockies for his second go around and who he debuted with in 2020. Early in May after being waived by Colorado, he spent just under two months with the Reds before being DFA'd by them and purchased by the Rockies. Timing being what it was, he gets in the set as a Cincinnati Red. All of that is the fun stuff. The not fun stuff is a low velocity fastball with a curveball and changeup that is pitching out of the bullpen in low leverage situations. Hard to see a player being passed around the league like a hot potato being put anywhere but into Tier None.
Gregory Santos - Giants - Fireballer out of the pen with a 4 seamer around 98 mph and a sharp breaking slider who had one good outing and two bad ones at the beginning of the season before being sent down to the minors and then getting suspended for 80 games for a PED positive test result at the end of June. Prior to this year, he had been working as a starter, which was much more interesting, but a future closer may make more sense here. If that comes to fruition, he could bump up to Tier 3, but for the foreseeable future he is going to be slotted into Tier None.
Jorge Guzman - Marlins - Reliever that used to regularly touch 99 but has lost a few ticks and was once thought of as a potential high leverage arm did not develop the consistency to be relied upon for that role. Still likely gets some MLB run in his career because of the stuff, but it likely won't be anything other than middle relief with a few chances to prove otherwise. Easily a Tier None player until something changes.
Nivaldo Rodriguez - Astros - Used exclusively out of the pen as a low leverage reliever in his MLB exposure. Could get some spot starts or backend of the rotation run, and you never know what the Astros dev can do with arms you underestimate, but until further notice, Rodriguez will hang out with the majority of the rest of the pitchers in this product in Tier None.
Bryan Garcia - Tigers - A bullpen arm that features a sinker/slider/changeup combo that has not found much success at all in his three big league seasons. Went so poorly this year he got sent down for two months in mid-summer to work things out. Nothing to get excited about in the short term and an obvious Tier None player.
Ben Bowden - Rockies - Low leverage reliever that we had pegged with a mid-to-high 90's fastball that ended up being in the 92 mph range at the MLB level this year - that's not great. Accordingly, his numbers in 39 relief games, he did not have the greatest success to the tune of a 6.56 ERA. Command and control are additional concerns with Bowden. Not much more to say here - that is an easy Tier None call.
Tyler Zuber - Royals - Low leverage middle reliever that outperformed his peripherals in his debut season of 2020, but he wasn't able to do it again in 2021. Not much more to the story which would drive any hobby interest.
Rony Garcia - Tigers - Has been a starter throughout his career in the minors, but used as a bullpen arm by the big league club. Was hit around in his debut season in 2020 and his stuff doesn't appear to be ideal. A low 90's velocity without a ton of velo separation from his changeup. He got hit around a lot in 2020 and didn't get much of a shot in 2021 after tearing his meniscus. Bullpen arm with not much velo that doesn't have a track record of success? Tier None.
Kyle Cody - Rangers - Middle relief profile that can likely spot start with injury history. Nothing to see here.
Seth Elledge - Cardinals - Two-pitch, low leverage reliever that likely never makes it to the back end of the bullpen. Tier None all day long.
Roel Ramirez - Cardinals - Low leverage reliever that has yet to perform at the big league level. Hard pass.
Final Thoughts
If this product had been released before the 2021 season instead of at the conclusion of it, it would likely be flying off the shelves. I know it’s a bit of an impossibility given that the top two tiers are comprised of players that had yet to debut, but imagine in an alternate universe that this could actually happen. Instead we have a year that has been a challenge for the majority of rookies for one reason or another and the Topps Flagship and Chrome products have more and more felt the pain of this poor performance. I don’t think Update Series bucks the trend, but I also wouldn’t completely push it aside and ignore it. As we’ve learned so many times in the hobby, products we thought were not worth our time can turn out to be highly sought after in the long term.
For more info on the overall checklist, team set breakdowns, inserts, variations, etc., go check out Ryan Cracknell’s Product Details over at Beckett.