Primer
Welcome to Wyatt’s Watchlist.
In the final Part of this three-part series: “What Metrically Makes an Ace”, I will review 15 more draft prospects (2022-2025 drafts) that fit the profile discussed in the first and second articles. For those of you who want to catch up, the links to parts 1 and 2, including the primer from Part 1 (where the important info I am judging prospects on) is directly below.
What Metrically Makes an Ace Part 1
What Metrically Makes an Ace Part 2
As a refresher, here is a less detailed, simple summary of what analytic and mechanical characteristics I will be looking for:
This article features prospects that showcase low vertical approach angles. As mentioned in Parts 1 and 2, a vertical approach angle is essentially the angle in which the ball travels from the pitcher’s release to when it crosses the plate (it’s what the hitter sees). What’s so great about a low vertical approach angle? A low vertical approach angle fastball doesn’t line up with the vertical bat angles of today’s power friendly swings.
In part 1, I mentioned how top big league arms such as Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber, Josh Hader, and Jack Flaherty all have fastballs that play like this; bringing lots of whiffs and mishits on fastballs up in the zone. So, how does a pitcher develop a low vertical approach angle? In order to obtain this trait, one must do two things really well: release the ball low to the ground (so it doesn’t have to angle downward as much- especially helpful with high RPM), and extend closer to the plate (i.e. the ball has less feet to travel= less time for angle to get steeper/added perceived velocity).
UNDER 17 PITCHER EVALUATIONS
Many obvious top prospects — in fact many top pitchers from the classes represented in this article — have been omitted from this list. Rather, just like in parts 1 and 2, the final edition of this three-part series will cover a mix of top notch arms, and players with the package that I am looking for that could project up in the future.
Bottom Line: All of these pitchers feature solid extension and low release points unless otherwise mentioned. Standard metrics and mechanical breakdowns are factored-in to paint the whole picture of each draft candidate..
Ian Ritchie Jr.(R)
6’2’’ 180
Bainbridge HS- Bainbridge Island, WA
Class of 2022
Ritchie, out of Bainbridge Island, Washington is one of the highest ceiling arms in the class of 2022. With a projectable frame, fantastic flexibility, and a very live fastball, Ritchie looks like a guy that could develop into a future fixture in a major league staff.
The first thing that makes Ritchie stand out as a top prospect is his fastball. Living in the low 90s and touching as high as 94, the two seamer plays really well; the pitch can showcase really hard run on occasion (flashes of elite stuff) and jumps on hitters surprisingly well. On top of that, he has a fantastic feel for the pitch, and can spot it up with ease. Ritchie’s offspeed pitches are still a bit of a work in progress, but have shown signs that point towards them being plus secondary options.
His best offspeed pitch is his changeup, which may tunnel better than any other prep changeup in the class. The pitch has a similar break profile to the fastball (not necessarily bad), though comes in nearly 10mph slower. As a result, hitters have struggled dealing with it as they recognize the pitch as a fastball (particularly in terms of flight path). It is worth noting that he tends to change his arm slot on the change, which can make it easier to read (the pitch has the profile to tunnel at an elite level with the fastball, but armslot difference currently makes that not the case).
Ritchie’s third pitch is his curveball, which is very raw and is still being developed. It shows signs of having plus vertical movement, but he consistently still slows his armspeed down on the pitch. The development of his secondaries over the next year and a half will determine if he is draft ready or not.
Mechanically (particularly on the fastball), there is a lot to like when it comes to Richie, though there are some adjustments that can be made. Ritchie has a pretty high leg kick, and stays very balanced post drive in his stress free delivery. As he comes forward, he sinks into his rear leg well, leading to his quality extension. His scap retraction is elite, which contributes to how well his arm comes through during delivery. While nitpicky, it is worth noting that his elite extension/low release comes more from his insane flexibility than it does him sinking into his glutes post drive or exploding downhill. In fact, he hardly sinks in at all after landing. With the profile of an elite velocity and spin fastball, he should want to lower his release as much as possible.
Given that he was blessed with athleticism and flexibility, priority number one in terms of mechanical development should be a focus on sinking lower after his drive, and potentially being more explosive coming downhill. This could lead to a little more velocity, but more importantly would allow the characteristics of his fastball (high rpm, high velo= lots of magnus force= perfect for low vertical approach angle) to be used in full. Ritchie throws from a low ¾ slot, which also contributes to a low release point. His arm is very whippy coming forward, though it is not consistent on all pitches; as mentioned prior, he can slow his arm down on the breaking ball. While still raw, he has a good mechanical foundation; with the right adjustments, we could see his profile skyrocket.
Overall, it is still to be seen if Ritchie will develop as desired over the course of the next year; he still has a lot of adjustments to make, but if executed he will be a first round pick. The fastball characteristics are undeniable, and when perfected his mechanics will be more than desirable. His body is extremely projectable, and with the flexibility he possesses, he has the potential to really become something special (elite elite extension, low release height with proper glute sink etc, fastball projects to potentially touch upper 90s). His raw pitches are already performing at a high level, and if he fixes his pitch tipping (arm slot and arm speed), he would be a borderline 1st rounder even without fixing the drive. He may come across as higher risk due to how raw he still is, but with proper coaching this kid could become a big league fixture down the road.
In this image, you can see how Ritchie sinks down to almost a 90 degree angle when he plants. This aids in lowering his release point, a major player in why he has a low vertical approach angle. His scap retraction is also plus.
Ryan Reich (R)
Selinsgrove Area HS- Selinsgrove, PA
Class of 2022
Reich, a right hander out of Selinsgrove, PA might have the best drive and extension in the entire 2022 prep class. With a very athletic frame, and some of the cleanest mechanics out there, Reich is a guy worth keeping tabs on.
Reich primarily throws a four seam fastball that currently lives in the upper 80s. The pitch plays elite up in the zone due to his release profile, and Reich has a fantastic feel for the pitch, locating it at a high level. The heater also features some armside run, which compliments well with his breaking stuff from a low ¾ slot. Reich’s offspeed profile is also to be desired, with his go to secondaries being a tight spinning breaking ball, and a quality changeup. The curve ball typically sits 68-71 with solid spin induced vertical movement. It has sharp bend on it, and is a very nice change in speed for him (it occasionally flashes elite bite). Reich’s change is his best pitch, as the hard fading changeup (up to 78mph) fools a lot of hitters while providing a somewhat similar amount of armside run as the fastball (good for fooling hitters- forcing soft contact). He maintains the same armspeed on all of his pitches, and seems to have a good grasp on how his arsenal plays.
Mechanically, I love what Reich is already doing. He has a very quick gather and leg raise, which is followed by a powerful drive downhill. Upon reaching the apex of his leg lift, Reich immediately sinks into his rear leg, pushing off with maximum force into an elite extension. After planting with the front foot, Reich sits extremely deep into his glutes, and with a ¾ slot, the release height is extremely low (ideal vertical approach angle). Reich has made his delivery very stress free and simple given the power he gets out of his drive, which should be considered ideal (maintains balance at an elite level despite coming downhill like a freight train). He gets an outstanding amount of torque coming through upon rotation, but keeps himself tucked in. This is key, as it means none of the force that he generates during his drive is wasted (he is very efficient in terms of applying all kinetic energy into the pitch). Of note, Reich occasionally fires his backside a little early (pre plant), though this is uncommon.
While his fastball isn't there from a velocity standpoint yet, it is already trending in the right direction. Mechanically he is quite frankly fantastic, and only coming in at 180 lbs he has a lot of room to grow into his body. I don't see him being a fire baller by any means, but with a good grasp on his offspeed stuff and a sneaky fast heater, he could very much project out.
Watch how well Reich’s backside fires as he goes into release in this clip
Barry Manning (R)
6’2’’ 175
Tucker HS- Stone Mountain, GA
Class of 2022
Barry Manning is a prime example of how simplicity can be extremely effective. The 16 year old has one of the most basic deliveries in his class, though does all of the little things right; Manning showcases elite athleticism at his spot, sinking in very deep, and showcasing solid flexibility as he extends better than the majority of pitchers in his class. Fastball velocity is on the way, and at only 145 lbs, there is an absolute ton of room to grow for this kid (note- he was reported as 5’10’’ 145 at PG World Series in early July, then listed as 6’2’’ 175 at PG Elite Southeast on August 1- official height and weight can’t be confirmed on my end. That is a massive change for 3-4 weeks- assumption is that size was exaggerated for the second tournament as growth like that is not physiologically possible).
Manning’s fastball profile is solid, though not beyond elite for his class (85-88). Topping out at 88, he is still pumping, though it is the profile of the pitch that impresses me most. Like the majority of guys on this list, Manning’s fastball plays extremely well up in the zone at velocity. He showcases very good command of the pitch, getting a lot of whiffs and pop ups on it. Manning compliments his fastball with a slower slider that usually sits around 70mph. It is a quality change of speed for him, and the break profile is more than adequate. He is still developing the pitch, though mechanically he is solid on it in regards to maintaining armslot and armspeed coming through into release.
Notice how low Manning gets as he drives towards the plate. He is a prime example of a guy with a low vertical approach angle, as he sinks very deep, and pushes off exceptionally, contributing to an elite extension
As mentioned prior, Manning is a prime example of having success while keeping things simple. Manning takes a very direct approach to the plate, with a low and quick leg kick followed by solid sink and a long extension towards the plate. Manning is very linear with his drive and stride, keeping nearly exactly perpendicular to the plate with his front foot after planting. The short delivery does mean he may not be able to generate as much potential energy, meaning there may be a couple mphs missing from his fastball. I am not promoting a change to the mechanics however, as he has no arm injuries to date, and the linear, simple approach has proven to be effective for Manning at a high level.
Manning is a guy that has an extremely high ceiling. He has a lot of physical room for growth and with the fastball flashing upper 80s, he definitely projects to be throwing low to mid 90s at the very least. The simplicity of the delivery makes it very easy to correct issues, and with the plus drive and extension that he is getting, I see him trending upward as we get closer and closer to the 2022 draft. The further development of his offspeed stuff will be key, as he is still getting a feel for his entire arsenal; the rate in which he is developing suggests that he should be able to accomplish this.
Robert Evans (L)
6’1’’ 206
All Hallows HS- Bronx, NY
Class of 2022
Evans is a left hander that I love as an under the radar 2022 draft candidate. Recently reclassified to the class of ‘22 (was a year younger than most 2021 prospects), Evans will finally be graded up against players his own age (he is 16). I see this boding well for the left hander, who was already ranked as New York’s top left handed arm for the class of ‘21. Evans has a very athletic build, which plays into his ability to both sink into his glutes, and extend beyond what kids of his size normally do.
Evans throws out of a mid/low ¾ slot, making his release point extremely low after adding on the plus extension and quality sink and drive (Solid vertical approach angle). His heater from the aforementioned slot sits in the 87-90 range, which plays quite well up in the zone despite the lack of elite velocity. Evans compliments his primary offering with a devastating change up (hovers around 80mph) that fades beautifully. His third pitch is a curve that could really be evaluated as a slurve due to the horizontal movement induced by the lower armslot (avg 74mph). The breaking ball tunnels well with both of his other two pitches, though it is less refined.
Mechanically, Evans’ delivery is pretty unique. He showcases an unorthodox, quick leg raise that could almost be described as a flick. As he ‘flicks’ the foot up, he immediately sinks deep into his rear glute, allowing him to almost fall down the hill. While a fall would normally be considered bad as many players tend to collapse their upper bodies pre release/post landing, Evans does not do that; he stays strong and balanced. This allows him to get a very elite extension, generating a lot of force in his drive. Evans typically works off of the right side of the mound, though I would be interested to see the results if he flipped to the left side. His release point is pretty wide, so working from the left side of the mound would make it very tough for left handed bats; his release x would be far out there, making pitches especially tough to pick up. This move may also give his breaking ball additional glove side run, which could become an additional weapon on the outside corner against left handers (the break is already there). The same could be said of an inside change to lefties, where it will look like a strike and then run out of the zone (would become a bat breaker).
In this clip, Evans’ quick flick leg kick is on display, along with his solid stride and extension
When projecting Evans it is important to note that he is still 16, and has a lot of room to grow. I would expect his fastball to eventually climb up into the low to mid 90s (92-95 would be a fair projection), which would be more than enough given his unique slot, delivery, and the refinement he already has on two of his three pitches. If he picks up a couple MPHs over the course of the next year, I would expect a big league team to pull the trigger, as the polish and mechanics are already there. Younger arms are tougher to project ceiling wise, but I believe that Evans has the stuff, head, and projectability of a guy that could end up on a big league staff.
Brock Porter (R)
6’3’’ 185
Orchard Lake St. Mary’s Prep- Milford, MI
Class of 2022
The Clemson commit is an arm I expect to be heavily looked at by the time 2022 comes around. With a 6’3’’ frame, he has a lot of filling out to do, and his fastball velocity (94) is elite for his age.
Stuff wise, his arsenal is very advanced for a ’22 grad. As mentioned prior, Porter’s fastball projects elite, already touching 94. Given the filling out he still has to do, an upper 90s fastball is not out of the question. He compliments the primary offering with a plus 1/7 breaking ball, and a quality late fading change. The breaking ball has solid bend on it, and is a quality secondary offering with further room to grow. The pitch has slight horizontal action (more than a typical curve), but doesn’t get remotely enough gyro spin to be considered a slider. His changeup is the better of his two offspeed pitches, with a lot of late armside run. This is exceptional, as it tunnels like a fastball fantastically (the curve/slurve does not accomplish this as well).
Mechanically, Porter is very calm and collected into his leg kick, remaining balanced through drive. His drive and extension are average and plus respectively, but neither are anything special. However, his arm action is elite. He keeps arm speed the same on all three of his offerings, and gets a lot of his mphs from the natural whip he gets as it comes forward. I feel that a more explosive drive downhill could add to the extension and potentially result in a little more velo. Porter throws from a high ¾ slot, which could promote the low vertical approach angle that he would get from and extended stride (from a more explosive drive downhill).
Porter’s physical projectability along with an elite fastball and at least one plus offspeed pitch (changeup) make him an attractive 2022 draft candidate. He has proven to be durable thus far, and the low stress release should alleviate concerns of stress based injuries. While he does have some fixes to make in regards to his delivery and tweaks to the offspeed, Porter is a guy worth tracking for 2022.
Porter’s smooth and explosive delivery
Logan Lunceford (R)
6’0’’ 170
Edmond Santa Fe HS- Edmond, OK
Class of 2022
Lunceford is a 2022 arm I can see popping up on draft boards if his development continues at the same rate. The Oklahoma native has someone of the best mechanics in his class when it comes to the creation of an ideal vertical approach angle, and he has continued to trend up over the last couple of years.
Lunceford’s primary offering is a four-seam fastball that sits low to mid 80s, topping out around 86. While this is clearly not what would typically be seen of a draft candidate, his build (140lbs right now) suggests that he should pick up additional velocity in the coming years (would project low 90s). His offspeed pitches are still pretty raw, though he is building his arsenal the right way. His primary secondary pitch is his curveball (good 4 seam compliment), which shows flashes of elite spin, but isn’t quite there yet. The curveball is typically in the low 70s, but plays pretty hard given where his fastball velocity is (tunnels well). His third pitch is a changeup, which averages around 77 on the gun. His change plays exactly how one would expect a change with a velocity closer to the fastball would: tunneling well with a slight run. Though the main goal of the pitch is for it to fool the hitter in recognition, rather than it being a real breaker. He does a very good job of accomplishing this, though he could work to induce more run on the pitch as a contingency for a bad spot.
Lunceford might have the best mechanics in the 2022 prep class. He stays balanced into his drive, before sinking beautifully into his right leg pre drive. His drive itself is explosive, and he sinks deep into his glutes pre delivery, resulting in a low release point and a plus extension (= quality vertical approach angle). Lunceford also gets elite hip/shoulder separation, and showcases solid scap retraction (though he could get more). His arm is very whippy, and it stays consistent on all pitches.
While his stuff is not clearly there yet, Lunceford has a budding arsenal and is mechanically exactly where I want to see an arm. His build suggests that he will fill out and pick up velocity, and the low stress, yet explosive delivery suggests that he should be durable. He may be a guy that needs 3 years of college to physically mature more, but I fully expect his name to eventually be called in a draft- his delivery and vertical approach angle scream “yes please”.
Lunceford maximizes the energy he creates with a very linear, direct drive. He stays closed very well and gets a solid amount of low stress torque.
Nazier Mule (R)
6’3’’ 205
Passaic CO Tech HS- Paterson, NJ
Class of 2022
Mule has some of the most exciting stuff in the 2022 class, and is a guy that I expect to see drafted early in 2022. Showcasing an easy low to mid 90s fastball, solid mechanics, and a low vertical approach angle, he already checks off many of the boxes over a year before the draft.
Mule’s arsenal is designed to compliment his elite fastball, which averages in the low 90s and tops out at 95-96. This pitch plays extremely well up in the zone, as Mule creates a pretty flat vertical approach angle coming from a low ¾ slot. However, what makes the pitch special is that it showcases a lot of horizontal run to the arm side; it could almost be considered a flat sinker rather than a 2 seam fastball. This is a fantastic pitch when paired with his power slider (go to secondary). The slider gets a lot of gyro action on it and has shown to be particularly effective against right handed bats. Mule also has a changeup in his arsenal that is pretty advanced, though not quite at the level of his other two pitches.
Mechanically, Mule also has a lot of good things going on. With a simple yet explosive delivery, Mule minimizes arm stress while getting the most out of his body possible. He collects himself very calmly, then sinking into his rear leg well, for a powerful push off and drive. He extends well and releases the ball very low; the ball jumps on the hitter faster than expected. His fantastic hip/shoulder separation contributes to him getting max velocity. Even better, he keeps consistent both mechanically and with his arm speed on all pitches. I feel he still could get some more on his pitches however, as his scap retraction could be improved.
Mule might have the highest ceiling of all 2022 prep arms. Due to the low vertical approach angle, and solid flat sinker/fastball, I could see him being a good comp to a young Dustin May. With room to fill out physically, I would expect the fastball to eventually flirt with triple digits (Mule is still 15). A flat sinker with a lot of horizontal run plays just like May’s, and the slider tunnels well with the pitch (tough recognition at high velocity is a problem for hitters). If Mule stays on course, I could easily see him going round 1 in 2022.
Mule’s explosive arm action and elite mid 90s velocity can be seen in this clip of his fastball
Noah Schultz (L)
6’8’’ 200
Oswego East HS- Aurora, IL
Class of 2022
The left hander out of Aurora, Illinois is an arm that I am extremely high on for 2022. With a fastball in the low 90s and a lot of room to grow, the 6 foot 8 Schultz feels like an ace in the making. He is already showcasing mechanical characteristics to big leaguers such as Chris Sale, and is on the right path in regards to the development of an arsenal that suits his projected style.
As mentioned prior, Schultz has a solid fastball hovering in the 90-92 range. Given he is only 200lbs at 6’8’’, it would be expected that he gains a lot of weight as he gets older, and thus should be able to get his fastball up around 95. His secondary pitches are a plus slider, and solid changeup. The slider is his best of the two right now, as he is able to locate it with ease both early and late in counts. While it doesn't showcase as much bite as other sliders in the draft class, the movement is late, which freezes a lot of hitters (tunnels well). His changeup fades pretty well, and is a slight change of pace averaging at about 83mph. He locates the pitch well, and keeps the armspeed the same as both of his other pitches.
Schultz does an outstanding job of sinking into his rear leg as he begins his drive. This accomplishes two things: it allows him to have more force to push away from the mound (better extension), and leads into a more explosive, lower drive (lower release height)
Dylan Lesko (R)
6’3’’ 170
Buford HS- Buford, GA
Class of 2022
Lesko is another high ceiling guy that I love for 2022. With the combo of elite velocity, a quality extension, and a projectable frame, he is definitely one to keep tabs on.
Lesko’s primary pitch is his four seam fastball, which sits 93-95, topping out at 96. The fastball has a lot of late life, garnering a lot of whiffs. His arsenal is pretty well rounded; his sweeping slider is his go to breaking pitch, and a late diving changeup gives him some vertical movement and armside run. The slider gets a lot of horizontal movement with little drop, suggesting that his axis is around 9 o’clock, which is ideal. His arm action remains the same on both offspeed offerings, and with a low spin change falling off the table late, his pitches can be hard to pick up.
At the 12 second mark, Lesko’s plus slider is on display. Watch how he maintains armspeed in relation to his other offerings.
Lesko has a very smooth and collected delivery. He maintains pace throughout his windup, and drives off the hill very nicely. With elite hip/shoulder separation, solid scap retraction, and very good rhythm, everything is maximized as efficiently as possible. I feel that he could create more force coming forward, though that may not be necessary, as his current stress free wind up already gives mid 90s velocity at age 16.
Lesko is one of the lowest risk/highest ceiling prep arms for the 2022 draft. The combination of the low stress delivery, high velocity, and a projectable frame means he should project even higher, while being a lower injury risk. He might not be the flashiest arm in his class, but he showcases the stuff, mechanics, and consistency needed to make it into a big league staff.
Jackson Ferris (L)
6’4’’ 185
Mount Airy HS- Mount Airy, NC
Class of 2022
The 6’4’’ Ferris out of Mount Airy High School is a guy that could skyrocket on draft boards over the course of the next 12 months. With a projectable frame, good mechanics, and a solid arsenal, he is a kid that with some added velocity could become an elite prospect.
Ferris’ main offering is a four seam fastball that lives in the upper 80s (88-90), touching as high as 91. When he fills out, I would expect the fastball to eventually sit low 90s (91-94 range). While the fastball is not dominant, he spots it up well, particularly higher in the zone (plays well with his plus extension= elite vertical approach angle). Ferris’ best secondary offering is a solid 1/7 curveball, which he consistently spots up. The curve is by no means a big bender; however, it's late break profile is desirable, as it is tough for hitters to pick up. He has a very good feel for both the fastball and curve, and is working on developing a quality 3rd pitch (changeup).
Mechanically, Ferris is very unique. Showcasing a very high leg kick, almost reminiscent of Tim Lincicum, Ferris can be hard to pick up. The high kick allows for him to maximize the potential energy created before he drives downhill, which plays into the rest of his delivery. Much like Lincicum, Ferris has an elite extension, which comes from the energy created in the high leg kick, and a stellar, albeit non explosive drive (this creates the desired low vaa fastball). As he enters his drive, he stays extremely closed off (front side), which visually looks like a fusion of Lincicum and a Bumgarner’s deliveries (slow collected stride of Mad Bum, kick/gather/extension Lincicum). This “wild” leg kick is not detrimental to his ability to locate at all, as he comes into his plant in a very controlled manner. With a solid hip hinge, he is able to utilize all of the power generated and apply it into the pitch. Ferris’ unique delivery does not come without its downsides. One glaring issue is that he has a tendency to pull down with his chest on the curveball, almost making it look like he is bowing. This is due to the fact that he is looking to create additional vertical movement on the pitch; however, all this accomplishes is lost velocity (due to lack of trunk firmness) and oftentimes decreased accuracy. At the next level, pitch tipping like this will see him get hammered. Quick adjustments on how he releases the ball, and staying back on rotation could alleviate these issues.
Ferris’ unique windup can be seed here. Pay attention to the little hitch he has at the apex of his leg kick- it slows him down, keeping him in control as he delivers, though he loses some of the potential energy created from his leg kick in the process.
Overall, Ferris is an extremely interesting prospect as he checks off the boxes, yet provides his own wrinkle mechanically which makes him unique (a potential asset). With a fastball trending towards low 90s, a good breaking ball, and a repeatable, very closed off delivery, I see him looking like a young, raw Madison Bumgarner stuff wise. He is not going to be a guy that regularly sits hitters down, though he will force a lot of soft contact, and will be especially tough against left handed bats. He already has the right idea working off the left side of the rubber (gives him more horizontal run on the breaking ball, and tougher release point for lefties). Along with the mechanical fix in relation to tipping, he will need to develop the changeup more and pick up a couple mphs on his fastball in order to be a serious draft prospect. All in all, Ferris is a guy that creates the desired low vertical approach angle, and despite being raw, possesses what is necessary to eventually become a top arm. Only time will tell.
Chance Mako (R)
6’5’’ 180
East Rowan HS- Salisbury, NC
Class of 2023
Mako has the potential to be in the discussion for the first prep arm taken out of the 2023 class (after Thomas White). At 6’5’’ 180, he is already a physical specimen, and still has a ton of room to grow. The 15 year old has a pretty advanced arsenal for his age, and his fastball is in the 90s already. Mechanically, Mako is also very sound, showcasing a solid extension and drive.
When diving deeper into Mako’s predominantly 2 pitch arsenal, all I have been is impressed. The 15 year old throws a four seam fastball currently sitting in the mid to upper 80s, topping out at 90. Mako has one plus offspeed pitch, a curveball which flashes high spin and solid break. The curve generally sits in the low 70s, and is a good change of pace that tunnels well. Mako has thrown other offspeed offerings including a changeup and occasionally gets more horizontal movement on his breaking pitch (could be a slurve variant, but unlikely since its thrown so rarely- probably a change in axis as a result of a release centric mechanical issue on a given pitch); those offerings are nowhere near the level of his fastball/curve combo, though at age 15, he obviously still has a lot of time to develop them.
His windup is very smooth, with his release being very quick and easy (low stress). Mako drives from his backside pretty well, and his stride is solid. I would like to see him sink into his glutes a little bit more to create a more desirable vertical approach angle. Right now, he has a tendency to sit into his glutes, but then bounce back up prior to release. If he starts to sit into the glutes more into his drive, the resulting extension and vertical approach angle would improve; he may get a little more velo as well in the process (lost kinetic force as he bounces up pre delivery).
Though he is only 15, now is a good time to start keeping tabs on him, as he seriously projects up already. The combination of the easy velocity on the fastball with a low stress release and plus feel on the breaking ball projects out. For him to take the next step, I would like to see him further develop his offspeed arsenal. The breaking ball has a pretty good vertical break profile; while this is advantageous, the lack of a changeup or cutter means all of his break profile is vertical (slight run on 4 seam fastball, but not enough to be significant). I think a cutter could be an effective option to add some glove side run while maintaining high velocity. It is comparatively not as difficult of a pitch to teach when put up against other options, and even slight horizontal movement would add a dimension that is not currently present. If he develops the aforementioned cutter, and a high spin fading change, he would have 3 pitches that look like fastballs with high spin, tailing off in all directions. Throw those 2 new offerings in with the already plus curve, and you have an arsenal that projects out for a starting pitcher.
The hitch in Mako’s delivery can be seen in this clip. The slight bounce during his drive as he plants means that he does not use all of the kinetic force created when he comes forward. This is important, as he doesnt have an elite fastball- if he remains linear he may gain a critical mph or two.
Thomas White (L)
6’4’’ 190
Phillips Academy- Andover, MA
Class of 2023
When evaluating a 15 year old, it is almost unheard of to be able to say that you are almost definitely looking at the number one pick in a draft; White is an example of one such case. With a projectable frame, spin rates that would be elite at the big league level now, and velocity that could play in the upper 90s when fully mature, White from a raw stuff perspective is as sure fire a young ace as you can find.
White’s primary pitch is his four seam fastball. The fastball generally lives in the 90-92 range, and he has touched 93. The velocity is not the whole story with his fastball though; with spin rates nearing 2500, and 15 inches of vertical break coming from an 11 o’clock axis, its characteristics are beyond elite. If you want a big league comp to fastball spin rates, the 15 year old White looks a lot like Max Scherzer, only he is 21 years younger than the Nationals’ ace. Much like Scherzer, and the other aces I mentioned in Part 1 of the series, White’s high spin fastball plays up in the zone due to the immense amount of Magnus force on the ball due to the spin. White’s elite arsenal does not end with his fastball however. The left hander also showcases a slurve and a changeup.
The breaking ball (avg 72-74) is the pitch he tends to get more outs on, with its characteristics looking a little more like a slider than a curveball. Coming from a 4 o’clock axis, the tilt screams slurve, though the lack of vertical break on the pitch (5.9 inches) coupled with its strong horizontal movement (late biting 9 inches) makes it play more like a slider (suggests lower efficiency, more gyro spin). It is an extremely unique profile, as the velocity suggests that it is nothing like a typical hard, gyro heavy, horizontal movement based slider; it shows slider type break with curveball velo. His second offspeed is a changeup that lives in upper 70s, with spin rates consistently sitting in the 1600s. The pitch compliments his slurve really well, and with 11 inches of vertical break plus around 8 of armside run, it fades off really well. He throws the change from a 10:45 axis, making it look nearly identical to the fastball out of the hand (very efficient, elite tunneling properties). White’s arsenal is beyond any typical 15 year old, and as he grows into his frame, spin rates and velocity should go up on all of his pitches, which will make the breaking stuff bite a little more, and the fastball even more dangerous.
Mechanically, White is also a specimen. His gather is relatively stereotypical, with a simple leg kick to an average height. White ends up landing in a closed stance after driving down nicely into his elite extension of 7 feet 1 inch. With the fantastic, simple stride/extension and plus glute sink (solid hip flexer flexibility), the 6’4’’ White releases the ball at a fantastic 5 foot 4 inches above the ground. This plays perfectly into the idea of a high spin fastball coming from a low release height being effective.
Post plant, White has a solid hip hinge, generating easy power going into release. One thing of note with the delivery is how easy and stress free it is. At times when watching White it can be hard to believe that he is throwing 93, as his drive downhill looks almost effortless; there is no hard explosion down the hill. As a result, I would be interested to see what would come of implementing a more explosive drive; I would anticipate a slight bump in velocity, though I would not be one to mess with a good thing, so the change isn’t necessary whatsoever.
At 6’4’’ 190 with a lot of room to fill out, I would not be surprised to see White at 220 when things are all said and done. Already living in the low 90s, I would be surprised if he isn’t sitting 95-96 by his 20th birthday, flirting with triple digits. With a unique playing breaking ball, and a solid changeup, his arsenal is beyond his years. If ever there was an ace candidate out of a prep arm, White is it; He is a guy that should be followed closely as his draft year (2023) approaches.
In this clip, watch how well White drives forward, then reaching out exceptionally as he releases the ball. These two factors contribute to his elite 7 foot extension.
Griffin Graves (L)
5’10’’ 160
Trinity Christian Academy- Jackson, TN
Class of 2023
Griffin Graves is an example of a prospect that is showing everything a scout wants to see in the mechanics and offspeed profile departments, yet he isn't physically mature enough to have a top notch fastball. He will never be an elite velocity guy, but with a good feel for all of his pitches, and a touch angle/slot to pick up, he is a prospect worth following over the next couple of years.
Look at how low Graves’ back knee is to touching the ground as he brings his arm forward. This tells us that his stride is massive for his body size.
Graves’ primary offering is a fastball that currently lives in the low 80s, touching as high as 85. Coming from a ¾ slot from the left side, it is not a look that hitters see all the time (especially since he is only 5’10’’). This helps play into the pitch, as the different profile along with his ability to spot up well projects looking forward. Graves’ offspeed pitches are what make him a prospect worth tracking. Showcasing a solid 1/7 curveball with solid bite, and a changeup that falls off the table, he has a great feel for his pitches. When attacking batters, Graves has shown an ability to work backwards, and his feel for the breaking ball in particular has allowed him to execute the aforementioned plan of attack quite effectively.
With him not graduating high school for another 3 years, it would be expected that his fastball will pick up velocity and eventually live in the upper 80s/low 90s. Given his age, I am evaluating him as a starting pitcher; starters that don't have elite velocity need to have multiple break profiles, and thus I feel like the development of a cutter would suit him best. He already gets some armside run out of both the changeup and fastball, and the curveball provides the diving action. However, the addition of a pitch that can force soft contact or misses that looks a lot like a fastball (little vertical movement slight late horizontal bite) may serve him well, expanding his repertoire.
Zach Edwards (R)
6’2’’ 190
Riverton HS- Riverton, UT
Class of 2024
The 14 year old Edwards throws a fastball already topping out at 88mph. That alone would normally raise eyebrows, but what is even more impressive as an evaluator is that he sits 86-88, consistently touching the ceiling of 88. Edwards locates the fastball pretty well, and compliments the pitch with a slider and changeup. His slide piece looks very good for someone his age; he has a very good feel for it, and already is throwing it with a near 9 o’clock tilt (good gyro spin= ideal for slider). The changeup is a solid pitch as well and shows good vertical dip late (don't have spin numbers, but this suggests low spin changeup). It's hard to critique the arsenal of such a young kid, but he is doing everything right at his current age in regards to furthering its development. If I had to change anything, I would probably switch the type of fastball he is throwing. Due to the fact that he projects to have an electric fastball in the velocity department, I am a firm believer in catering the profile of the fastball to compliment his offspeed pitches. Given that he has already committed to throwing a slider (and throws it well), a sinker or hard running 2 seam fastball may be better for him in the future. I love the recent trend in the MLB where some arms are showcasing sinkers/two seamers with little vertical break and a lot of run; Edwards could project to be one of those guys; starting him young on the two seam would lead to better feel as he ages.
Edwards does a great job of sinking into his back leg pre drive as seen in this clip.
Mechanically, Edwards is pretty simple. His load into his leg kick is pretty quick, and his leg raise is not particularly high. He drives off of his back foot very well, which leads to a plus extension. Edwards sinks into his glutes well upon plant, and does a very good job of keeping his trunk firm through rotation and delivery. He has a bit of an over the top release, coming in at about a 1 o’clock tilt on the fastball, and does a very good job of keeping his front side closed off until hip hings/rotation into delivery. Being as young as he is it would not be fair to expect him to be extremely explosive in his drive, but he physically is showing the characteristics (delivery wise) that suggest his drive and extension could play that way in the future.
Overall, Edwards is one to watch due to his solid mechanics, and plus pitch profile for a fourteen year old. The velocity is worth raising an eyebrow over, and his feel for the slider is beyond his age. As mentioned prior, I think the transition to a high velocity pitch that showcases more armside run may benefit him more in the long run than a traditional four seam; now could be a good time to start developing it so it is performing at a high level by the time he is 16-17 years old.
Sam Cozart (R)
6’6’’ 225
High Point, NC
Class of 2025
Cozart, the youngest name on this list does not graduate high school until 2025. Why am I featuring a 13 year old in a series about the development of future aces? Well, he’s already showing the stuff.
Cozart’s arsenal is obviously a little more limited given his stage in development, but the combination of his fastball profile and mechanics are to be desired. At age thirteen, Cozart is already touching 88mph, and projects to see that climb even more as he gets into his growth spurts. The fastball profile is even more exciting when breaking down his mechanics. While he does do a very good job in gathering potential energy through his leg kick, he doesn't maximize the use of said energy. He is stellar mechanically through butt lean (at the start of his drive), though he doesn't really sink into the hill or push off of the mound that well. What does this mean? He is a thirteen year old throwing 88 that doesn't use all of his power; he could easily be touching 90-91 with a better drive and extended stride. In the offspeed department, Cozart is just developing a breaking ball, so it is not worth judging yet, and his changeup is plus for his age. What is most important in regards to the offspeed pitches is that he maintains armspeed throughout, and that the release points are very similar on all three pitches.
While extremely young, Cozart is a kid that already possesses electric stuff. With a ton of physical growth coming over the next few years, and multiple mechanical adjustments that can be made, he is a kid with a sky high ceiling.
Cozart has a solid lean with his rear in this image, also sinking into his back leg pre drive. He is very big for his age, and thus hasn’t really grown into himself when it comes to full coordination. In time, he will get even more dangerous.
That concludes this Three Part “What Metrically Makes an Ace” series. Look out for future updates on the 45 arms mentioned in the coming months.