Primer
Over the last five to ten years, we have seen a massive change in the type of player that breaks through and makes an impact at the big league level; the quality of athlete is higher than ever. This has coincided with the development of advanced metrics, in particular the trend/obsession of high launch and attack angles for hitters.
With power numbers surging, the need for a counter coming from the mound is crucial. To identify traits found in aces, I’ve examined five Cy Young caliber arms:
Max Scherzer (6’3”, 215 lbs.)
Jacob DeGrom (6’4’’, 180lbs.)
Jack Flaherty (6’4”, 225lbs.)
Corey Kluber (6’4”, 215lbs.)
Josh Hader (6’3”, 180 lbs.)
Each is physically imposing in his own way, yet they are collectively middling in build. Our five average 6’ 3.6’’, 203 lbs, comparable to the league norm of 6’3” 210 lbs for pitchers in 2019.
Stuff-wise, once again, our five are collectively unremarkable, with a mean fastball spin rate of 2320 rpm, as compared to the big league average of 2306 last season. Individually, Scherzer and Kluber have elite fastball spin rates (2470 and 2450 rpm, respectively), DeGrom’s spin rate is nothing special (2385) by contrast, while Flaherty and Hader are rather pedestrian at 2178 and 2117 rpm.
Finally, as a group, they have plus fastball velocity; so do many other less successful arms. So what makes them special? The answer lies in a metric rarely discussed outside of progressive metric-based scouting circles: Their fastballs all have flat vertical approach angles.
Roughly defined, this metric measures the angle the ball travels from the pitcher’s hand until it crosses the plate; In essence, it’s what the hitter sees.
While pitchers’ vertical approach angle statistics are difficult to access publicly, two metrics are known to be chief contributors: release height and extension.
Per Statcast, the average fastball release height in the MLB is 5.9 feet. Each pitcher in our group releases the ball significantly below that mark. Kluber leads the group (5.16 feet) followed by Hader (5.22), Scherzer (5.23) Flaherty (5.35) and DeGrom (5.62). Per Fangraphs, the average extension among MLB pitches is 6.08 feet. Our five average 6.53 feet (DeGrom 6.85, Flaherty 6.73, Hader 6.72, Scherzer 5.96, and Kluber 5.94). Also, It’s worth noting that Kluber and Scherzer make up for lesser extension with lower release heights.
In conclusion, our group extends further and releases the ball lower, creating a flatter fastball (lower vertical approach angle). This is desirable as the hitting planes of the steep attack-angle swings of today line up poorly when confronted with a low approach angled fastball.
Flat fastballs simply lead to more whiffs and pop outs with fewer squared-up baseballs. That’s why I lean heavily on these two metrics (extension and release height) in projecting pitchers for the 2021 draft. Below are my evaluations…
2021 Pitcher Evaluations
Many obvious top prospects — in fact most pitchers projected in the top half of the first round — have been omitted from this list. Rather, for parts 1 and 2 of this three-part series I have evaluated 15 players of our Top 100 MLB Draft list, and 15 that project in the middle rounds of the ’21 draft (they appear in no particular order).
Bottom Line: All of these pitchers feature solid extension and low release points unless otherwise mentioned. Standard metrics and mechanical breakdowns are factored-in to paint the whole picture of each draft candidate. Part 3 of this series will be Wyatt’s Watchlist, which will feature under-17 year old arms with burgeoning talent and superior mechanics, who already have a grasp of the low vertical approach angle.
*An asterisk before a name signifies a player ranked in Prospect Live’s top 100 prospects for 2021.
Wyatt Olds (R)
6’1’’ 179
University of Oklahoma
This little talked about right hander has first round stuff. His plus mid 90s fastball exceeds 2500 rpms, which is elite, and his breaking stuff is highly underrated. Olds is a great example of a guy where the metrics on his offspeed pitches do not tell the whole story. If you look at spin rates, spin axis, etc, one would assume that his slider (his go to secondary) would not have much bite. However, working from the 3rd base side of the rubber allows for it to travel that little bit farther (particularly when throwing glove side), resulting in some wicked hooking action. His extension, maxing out around 6.5 feet is great for a guy of his size, and his release height is rumored to be around or even under 5 feet (couldn’t ask for a better/flatter approach angle).
Mechanically he has a hitch in his windup after the initial leg raise, though it is part of his rhythm and is not detrimental to arm health (no excess arm drag), velocity, ability to locate, etc. He sits very well into his glutes, and creates good separation leading into his extension. Additionally, he stays closed extremely well, rotating at the very last moment to deliver pitches. This helps Olds get as much of the potential energy created by his elite extension and drive into the pitch as possible.
What I like most about him mechanically however is his unique armslot. Throwing semi-sidearm, his look is unconventional, and as stated earlier, further bolsters his sneaky good breaking stuff. The knock on Olds mechanically is the fact that he has a pretty violent delivery upon release. While smooth coming forward, he pulls his left shoulder before release to get more out of his fastball. This creates stress on the arm in the form of drag, which could lead to injury. Many scouts have seen this as well, though the fact that he has zero history of arm injuries tells me that he might be more durable than some project. The rotational correction could be made in a minor league program, which would eliminate the aforementioned drag.
He only weighs 179 lbs right now, and definitely can fill out more physically. As a result, I see him as a good comp to Max Meyer (3rd overall in 2020). His fastball profile (mph and rpm), plus extension, and low release point make the fastball come in flat, playing very well up in the zone (just like Meyer, and the aces discussed in the primer). At Oklahoma this year, he went 4–0 with a 1.89 ERA, a WHIP of 0.76, and a K/9 of 13.74 — all elite. He clearly has the mentality to do this, and projects to start in High A (a plus in getting him along quicker). I like Olds quite a bit, and if a team can get him a lower stress delivery, I see him as a guy that could become a top big league arm (he has the stuff for it).
Watch how well Olds comes down the hill- this allows for him to get solid extension, leading to his otherworldly release height. The violence of the delivery (arm drag) can also be seen.
*Gage Jump (L)
5’11’’ 175
J Serra Catholic- Aliso, CA
The 17-year-old left hander currently committed to UCLA has a ton of potential. He is only 5’11’’ 175, but has room for muscular growth (would expect him to hit 195–200 after getting drafted). Jump lives in the low 90s right now, with his average fastball in a bullpen a few weeks back coming out at 92.7 mph. Gage’s free flowing delivery, which sees him come down the hill very nicely helps contribute to his elite extension. This quality stride comes into play when you look at his release height, which in that same bullpen was measured at only 5 feet 1 inch above the ground (elite vertical approach angle). The vertical break on his fastball is solid, which is important as it makes up for his fastball being average from an rpm standpoint.
What stands out most for me is the fact that his spin efficiency comes out around 99%, with his true spin hitting 2313 out of a total spin of 2328 rpms for the fastball. The average velo on his breaking ball generally runs around 72 mph (almost 20 mph difference), and can even dip into the high 60s. He gets stellar horizontal break on the curveball, with a spin plane at about 5 o’clock. Jump’s third pitch is his changeup, which is a solid middle ground in velocity between his heater and breaking stuff (avg 85 mph). Something of note with the change is that he actually has a higher spin rate on it than his fastball. While this makes it hard for a hitter in regards to pitch recognition, I would like to see the changeup altered. He currently does not have a pitch with armside run, and a hard pronating circle change with a low spin rate would provide this, and give him a deeper arsenal. Jump’s fastball plays really well up in the zone (thanks to his extension and low release point= flat approach angle). A change that drops off the table coming from a nearly identical release point would be preferable, and give him movement in every direction.
Jump projects out to be a quality rotation arm with the already plus stuff, and a projectable frame. When he puts on the weight that most anticipate he will, Jump should be living in the 94–96 range on his fastball with the deadly breaking stuff to go with it. He may be a value pick as some scouts project him lower due to his height being under six feet. Jump being a prep arm is noteworthy, as he has the option to go to UCLA; he will have to be drafted higher than some project in order to give him a bonus that would preclude him from going to college. I feel he is well worth that earlier selection, and quite frankly do not care about his short stature. Marcus Stroman is very successful at the big league level (short pitchers such as Pedro were obviously dominant too), and as stated in the primer, a plus fastball with a flat vertical approach angle projects out.
Jump’s full arsenal is on display in this video. Something of note to watch for is his fantastic hip hinge as he rotates post drive.
*Josh Hartle (L)
6’5’’ 195
Reagan HS- King, NC
The 6’5” left hander is one of my favorite arms in this entire draft class (college or prep). Josh is committed to Wake Forest, showcasing a fastball in the low 90s. Given that big league pitchers such as Josh Hader and Jack Flaherty were almost identical in build and fastball velocity at his age, I would not be surprised to see him fill out some, picking up mphs over the next couple of years. A combo of Chris Sale and Josh Hader is a good comp for him, as he is built like Sale, with similar mechanical attributes to both, and a fastball that projects more like Hader’s.
Like both aforementioned aces, Hartle has a very lengthy stride (low release height for someone his size and flat approach angle) that finishes slightly closed off on the left side of the rubber (Sale). This landing point allows for his whole body to rotate extra, which provides more torque with little added arm stress. The closed off landing point also helps particularly on glove side breaking balls (like Sale, he has a really nice sweeping breaking ball). Hartle sits deep into his glutes to create a very low release height post drive, while getting the maximum out of his legs with a fantastic hip hinge.
He is very raw in terms of his physical build, but he has a projectable frame and will undoubtedly put on more weight. The frame is even more reason for a team to jump on him now, as having him in your own arm program as he fills out and adds velo would be more advantageous than trying to draft him later.
If I had to give him a comp to a recently drafted prospect, I would say he could look like a Garret Crochet (R1 P11 in 2020) with a couple more years of physical development and fastball velo. Just like Crochet, Hartle throws a fastball that plays well up in the zone, has a solid breaking ball, and a build that projects to similar big league left handers. Hartle’s release point is actually far lower than Crochet (more similar to the aforementioned Sale and Hader), yet he will likely have less velo at the end of the day than Crochet (hence better Hader comp than Sale).
Hartle is a high school arm definitely worth drafting early. He could project to an ace if he fills out as expected (would like to see 20lbs more on him), and gets better scap retraction to create better separation (minor league coaches can address this).
In this image, you can see Hartle’s elite extension, and unique slightly closed off landing point (Sale esque)
*Irving Carter (R)
6’4’’ 200
Calvary Christian Academy- Boynton Beach, FL
Carter, one of the best prep arms in the draft class is a warrior. He is extremely intense, and has an inner self confidence in his stuff that very few in this class possess. With a very athletic build, he is extremely mature physically, which plays into his style on the bump. Carter attacks the zone with a 91–94 mph fastball that gets on the hitter quicker than expected (plus extension). His ¾ armslot (low release) helps him greatly when it comes to his breaking ball, which shows sharp bite and makes up for his below average change (a work in progress).
He throws all three of his pitches for strikes consistently and has good arm action. Carter up the pacing of his delivery extraordinarily well (Cueto esque), which does not affect him in regards to locating his pitches. Irving has a solid stride length (though he could get more) and his backside drive is very good (sinks into his rear glute and leg prior to stride beautifully).
When watching his different deliveries, it's worth noting that his extension is superior on his slidestep variant; I would like to see said extension applied to all variations of his windup. If the pieces are put together properly, he could become more dangerous with a lower release height (see sidestep variation of delivery).
I see Carter projecting out as a mid rotation to top of the line starter (2–4) depending on the development of his fastball. He has the competitive attitude needed to be a top arm, and is reported to have a solid work ethic. Carter doesn’t feel very high risk (and has fewer shots used in the gun), which may make him more attractive than some college arms that will be available at a similar stage of the first 2–3 rounds.
Between 1:08 and 1:34 are all typical variations of his delivery. Notice how in his slidestep, the energy he creates coming downhill is greater than his usual windup.
*Doug Nikhazy (L)
5’10’’ 205
Ole Miss
Ole Miss’ new starman is underrated given what he shows us analytically for 2021. He has a relatively quick windup, but comes down the hill beautifully. Nikhazy has a very smooth and repeatable release, and maintains balance very well throughout.
The biggest eye opener is his extension, which at nearly 7 feet is the largest in relation to body size amongst top prospects (he is only 5’10’’). The low spin rate and plus movement on his low 90s fastball suggest high efficiency and a very good pitch axis (12 o clock= ideal). He has a nice hooking breaking ball (around 2500rpm) that compliments the heater well. Nikhazy also has a curve in his arsenal, and he does a very good job with his changeup (both drop with a slight running action to the arm side on the change). Three of his four pitches are completely fine tuned, with the slider still looking raw at times.
Before the coronavirus shutdown, Doug had a nice 12.1 K/9 with a 0.78 WHIP. Nikhazy reminds me a lot of a younger Jason Vargas (left hander with not the greatest of fastballs or spin rates, but locates extremely well with his offspeed pitches and gets enough action on the fastball). He won’t be a top of the line starter, but definitely can project out into a big league rotation on the back end as a reliable lefty arm.
While he is known to be a good kid, it has to be mentioned that in February he was arrested on a DUI charge. It was his first criminal offense, and given his knowledge of the direction his career is going, I would not expect him to make further mistakes. Nikhazy should still go around the 2nd round as expected.
Notice the way Nikhazy is driving off of his back leg down the hill. This creates maximum force moving forward, contributing to his otherworldly 7 foot extension (He’s only 5'10'’).
Ma’Khail Hilliard (R)
6’0’’ 150
LSU
Hilliard out of LSU is probably the most interesting pitcher that I have on this list as a prospect (and one of my favorites). Coming in at 6’0 150lbs, it would not be fair to compare him to power arms (which frankly too many MLB teams have looked exclusively for velocity).
Hilliard is a shining example of a guy that could project out to be a sneaky star from the pen at the big league level. The first box he checks off is the mental one. This kid doesn't care about his size, pressure, or any other factor; he does not back down from anything (exactly what I want out of the pen).
When it comes to his physical stuff, he sits at only 86–89 on his fastball. This is not a problem however, as his spin rate on the heater is a remarkable 2636 (his 2020 average). With vertical movement of around 8 inches (plus) and some horizontal tail (arm side run around 3 inches on average), his fastball is not so easy to hit (plays like a sinker). Hillard extends very well off the mound, coming in at just over his height in push off. This is acceptable in the creation of an ideal flat vertical approach angle, as any extension number longer than the height of the pitcher is considered adequate. While not conventional, due to his fastball playing like a sinker (usually most effective with steep approach angles) his fastball remains remarkably difficult to square up. Hilliard’s curve is elite; frankly it is his best pitch. Living around 75 mph, it provides a solid change in pace, and with a Bauer Unit score of a whopping 37.48 (over 2800 rpm on the pitch), it is next level. His third pitch is a changeup, which has a high spin rate, which he takes advantage of. While it doesn’t have the movement of a slower spin rated change, it is read by the hitter as a fastball. This is fine, as his fastball velo isn’t high enough for a need in a slower playing change (his curveball is slow enough and he is looking for miss hit baseballs, not K’s).
In today’s age of fireballing starters (and relievers), having a consistent option out of the pen in middle relief that brings a massive change in armslot, velocity, and break is extremely advantageous. Particularly, with the new rule of pitchers having to face a minimum of 3 batters, he could be a unicorn that teams struggle to prepare for. Hilliard isn’t going to be a guy taken in the first few rounds, or seen high up on many draft boards, but he is worth putting on a board to me.
In the middle rounds of drafts, sometimes it is preferable to take a player who might not have the highest ceiling in regards to stuff, but that can carve a niche that will impact the organization. I think a team that is a (borderline) contender or that is father along in a rebuild would be ideal, as he is a guy I see as a final, special piece in building a playoff roster, not as a guy to come into the league early in a rebuild.
Pitchers like him that reach the show can have careers that go one of two ways. They can be a bit of a one hit wonder, being dominant early and eventually being figured out a few years in. On the flip side, they can continue to be dominant and have a long successful career as a niche reliever. This makes him a higher risk pick, which is another reason for a team with a quality big league roster/built up farm system to take him (looking at you Dodgers and Rays).
In this image you can see how well Hilliard begins his drive- He starts sinking into his glutes really nicely, and remains closed off as he begins his drive (ideal as all of his energy stays back until hip hinge and extension=he is able to use all of the potential energy he creates)
*Seth Lonsway (L)
6’3’’ 200
Ohio State
Lonsway is an underrated Big 10 pitching prospect despite being on many top 100 lists. He comes in at a solid 6’3’’ 200, with a relatively athletic build. His fastball is average by professional standards hovering around 92–94, with a lackluster spin rate of just over 2100.
However, this doesn’t tell the whole story, as he gets a massive 10 inch plus vertical movement on the heater. This means that he has nearly a 100% spin efficiency on the fastball, and that his axis is at a perfect 12:00, both ideals. As mentioned prior, the massive vertical movement and solid spin axis, offsetting previous concern regarding his low spin rate.
Lonsway’s entire repertoire doesn’t lack quick rotating pitches however, as both his curve and slider are plus in the rpm department. Both feature solid numbers in regards to both vertical and horizontal break as well. The Bauer Unit scores of 32.5 (SL) and 35.65 (CU) are very good, and tell the tale of what kind of a pitcher he is. Lonsway has only allowed 3 home runs in 110+ innings pitched at the division 1 level, and has an outstanding K/9 sitting at 13.73 lifetime. He won’t overpower you, but with his long stride and a good low center of gravity, he creates a low approach angle that keeps balls in the yard, and forces a lot of pop ups. Lonsway’s arm speed stays consistent on the offspeed, and the hitch in his wind up helps him gain momentum driving forward.
I can see Seth projecting as a bottom of the rotation kind of guy, but one that can definitely reach the big league level (low risk pick) due to his outstanding movement. He will have to cut down on walks to reach that level however, as the high walk rate (77 bb in 110.1 ip) is of concern.
Watch Lonsway sit into his glutes in his drive. This helps lower his release height, creating a solid vertical approach angle despite his average stride.
*Luke Hayden (R)
6’1’’ 206
Edgewood HS- Bloomington, IN
Luke Hayden is a pitcher that I am particularly high on when looking towards the 2021 draft. At 6’1 206, he is built strong, particularly in his lower half. Hayden tops out at around 95 on the gun right now, and should pick up a couple more MPHs as he gets his man muscles (would like to see him maintain a similar weight range but flip some bulk for muscle). The Bloomington, Indiana native gets a lot out of his back leg drive when throwing, and has a very lively arm and back side creating a ton of torque.
What I like most about Hayden though, is that his current mechanical weakness may end up being his ultimate strength. Simply put, his stride is shorter than it can be. As a fan of low approach angles, which result in less barreled baseballs in this launch angle crazed era, a low approach angle is key. When assessing Hayden, the idea that he is an arm already hitting 95 (from a 17 year old no less) without the use of the full force he can generate going downhill is exciting. The fact that he is already trending toward being a 3rd or 4th round type of selection with his smaller stride means he is doing a lot of other things right. His breaking stuff is plus (slider is elite), and he seems to be a well demeanored kid (student of the game).
After watching a lot of his tape, I observed that the last little bit that he can get out of that stride may not be there now due to a lack of flexibility in the groin muscles. This can be easily rectified post draft through the introduction of a flexibility program. If said flexibility can be added, Hayden could project out really well, as his potential is undeniable.
This clip showcases how short Hayden’s stride is. It’s incredible that he can throw 95 with next to zero leg drive and extension- this actually makes him an attractive prospect however (more flexibility=more drive=more legs= even more mph+lower approach angle=top of the line prospect).
Dominic Hamel (R)
6’2’’ 206
Dallas Baptist
Hamel might be the biggest steal in the ’21 draft from an analytic standpoint. The Dallas Baptist right hander has arguably the best spin rates across his repertoire of all pitchers eligible for the ’21 draft.
He hits the mark with his slider and curve both approaching 3000 rpm (elite), and his fastball is a solid 93–96. That fastball has possibly the best vertical movement in the draft, at 2500 rpm which is also elite. His extension is a solid 6.5 feet, resulting in a very good vertical approach angle, release height, and an even quicker feel on the heater. He is very efficient with his fastball, and with elite break on the curve and slider, he could easily become a first round pick with a quality 2021 season.
Mechanically he is very smooth, though I feel he could still get a little more from his backside coming forward post leg drive and front foot plant (+1–2 mph are definitely in him). Hammel carries himself with a swagger on the rubber, something you want to see out of your pitchers.
Teams in need of arms in the 2nd round should look to snatch him up, as the metrics point towards him projecting out, and Dallas Baptist has a reputation of developing its players very well.
Showcased in this image is Hamel’s great shoulder/hip separation
Mason Erla (R)
6’4’’ 220
Michigan State
The 6’4’’ 220 Erla out of Michigan State is a very good guy to look at for teams that need big league ready arms. Erla has a sinker/fastball that touches up to 97 (big league average spin rate in the 2300s), with solid secondary options including a plus slider along with a good change and curve.
Being a senior in 2021, Erla will not struggle with any personal issues in the minors, as he should be more mature having traveled for four plus years at the collegiate level (redshirted due to torn acl senior year of hs). His delivery is solid mechanically, as he takes a pretty good stride (low release) and rotates well from the back (quality hip hinge). I see him being a guy that could be brought up to the bigs quickly as a stopgap, then finding a role similar to that of Ross Stripling on the Dodgers. W
ith his plus fastball, he could find immediate use in a bullpen, while on the other hand his solid arsenal of pitches and experience could land him as an immediate filler in a rotation (developing into a mid to bottom of the rotation starter). He is a very low risk pick that could give a major league team some help faster than most other players in the draft. The only concern with Erla is the discussion of bullets in the gun. Being a senior, he has thrown more in college than what most would find ideal, though his versatility and stuff can’t be denied.It is worth noting that Erla is a kid very focused on his development.
After struggling in 2019, he elected to not play in a summer league, and instead go on a throwing program to improve his fastball velocity. He got said velocity and took a massive leap in his development. This says a ton in regards to his maturity and understanding of what he needs to do to reach the next level; something that I would like to see out of all arms drafted into an organization. He would be a great 5th-10th round pickup, and could go higher if he has a dominant 2021 season.
Erla, above, sitting really well into his glutes as he gets his foot down post drive. His back foot is still parallel to the plate, which is a plus, keeping as much energy back that can be transferred upon hip hinge and eventual release.
*Eric Cerantola (R)
6’5’’ 222
Mississippi State
Cerantola is a very exciting prospect for the 2021 draft. With a solid, athletic frame, and a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, he has the physical attributes of a Major League starter. Cerantola has an elite curve (avg spin rate of around 2650) to go along with his heater, and an average change.
His delivery is a little slow for my liking, with a slow paced stride that results in a shorter than preferable extension. This windup suits a sinker baller better than his own profile, which is four seam dominant. He stays closed with his front shoulder until the very last second prior to release, which helps him get great torque and hide the baseball well.
He’s a good comp to Cade Cavalli (R1 P22) from the 2020 draft class, and if a coaching staff worked on speeding up his delivery a little on his drive downhill, his release height would go down. I feel that the lower release height would benefit him particularly based on how his offspeed tends to play. The sped up drive downhill would give him more potential energy to work with, resulting in him likely flirting with triple digits on the fastball.
In this clip you can see the slow speed of his drive downhill, along with his solid breaking ball coming from a 10 o’clock axis. One thing of note on the breaking ball: it plays better with the shorter stride due to its axis being at 10, not 12. This gives it more horizontal run (Slurve like), which is beneficial for pitchers with shorter strides (sinker/slider vs fastball/curve paradox). If he were to speed up his motion (hello triple digits), he would probably need to shift to a 12/6 curve for a more complementary pairing-it would still be effective at 10 though.
Aidan Maldonado (R)
5’11’’ 180
Illinois
A 5’11 180 right hander out of Illinois, Maldonado is a very low risk option for the early middle rounds that showcases the ideal approach angle. Featuring a very repeatable, simple, and stress free motion, Maldonado checks off many boxes mechanically. He gets a very tight spin on the breaking ball from 11/5, which has solid vertical movement, with a slight horizontal dip. His change is workable (flattens out a bit but still good enough action), with a quality low to mid 90s fastball; in other words, his stuff is good enough. Another example of a shorter arm with a very high efficiency rating and a solid spin axis, Maldonado could project out to the bottom of a big league rotation. His very tight and low approach angle is a plus, and it shows as he gets a lot of pop outs (while keeping the ball in the yard).
He is a solid pick for rounds 4–10 depending on how he improves over the next few months. Maldonado could probably still get some more out of his legs as well, as he has a relatively methodical lower half during delivery. His aforementioned curveball shows flashes of elite bite, though I would like to see larger variation in velocity between said breaking ball and his fastball. The difference is less than 10mph between his slowest offspeed and max fastball velocity (83 mph on curve and 92–93 on heater).
This lack of differentiation in velocity would not be as big of an issue for a pitcher throwing an upper 90s fastball, but for Maldonado I’d like to see the rpms on his changeup go down by 200–300 in order to give him the difference he needs to take an even further step. Coaches in the minors should be able to help him accomplish this, which is why I am not concerned in this regard.
The only other critique of note is not stuff related, but has to do with control. His strikeout to walk ratio is negative during his college career. This is obviously a red flag, though it has slowly improved year by year. In other words, it (K/BB Ratio) is a work in progress that should be followed closely heading into his 2021 season.
Maldonado sits really well into his glutes, allowing for elite extension and an ideal vertical approach angle.
Luke Murphy (R)
6’5’’ 175
Vanderbilt
Murphy, a right hander out of Vanderbilt has the goods to be a fixture in a big league rotation in the future. He has already had Tommy John, though there should not be concern, as Vandy has a history of treating its pitchers’ arms well. I find this critical when evaluating college arms.
Murphy has a very projectable frame, though quite frankly I would like to see him put on 25 plus pounds, as he is very lean. Murphy has a lively fastball reaching as high as 96 on the gun (solid spin rate over 2400), and could throw even harder with some weight gain. His breaking stuff is top notch as well, with a hooking slider being his go to. The slider features a ton of horizontal break on it, making it a fantastic option playing low in the strike zone.
Mechanically there are some concerns when it comes to Murphy however. He tends to lean from his front side into the hill on occasion instead of sinking down into his back leg pre drive. This movement causes Murphy to have to compensate for the lost energy and rapidly pull with his glove side shoulder to deliver the pitch. This creates drag on the elbow and could have been the cause of his Tommy John injury through repetition a couple years back.
The mechanical blip can easily be corrected by ensuring he stays back on that right foot pre drive; it should make his motion more effortless. Despite the history, he has recovered well from his injury and continues to project high. The team that drafts him will have to make arm care priority number one from day one.
Watching the video (while a couple years old) is the best way to break this down (his arm drag). Watch how he pulls his glove out towards the first base line, instead of in towards his chest; sending his body weight/energy away from the plate, and forcing his arm to drag through behind him. With repetition, this is detrimental to arm health.
Brock Selvidge (L)
6’3’’ 205
Hamilton HS- Chandler, AZ
An LSU Commit from Arizona, he is a 6’3” 205 athletically built LHP, with a low to mid 90s fastball at a 3/4 release. Selvidge has a fantastic approach angle, and takes full advantage of his stride with an easy, low stress delivery. He keeps his looks very similar with his breaking stuff in contrast to his fastball, which is a major plus. I can see Brock gaining 2–4 mph on a professional strength program, as he could gain a little more weight.
His easy release is reminiscent of Francisco Liriano in the early 2010s. The rpms on the fastball are almost identical to his slider at 22–2500, which is elite and makes the pitches harder to read. His slider tops out around 2400 rpm, and I would expect the fastball to sit on the upper part of the current range in a couple years with physical development. He is working on a 2 seam to add some armside movement, which could bolster his projection if developed well.
This is important as the 2 seam fastball he is trying to develop profiles similar to what Trevor Bauer throws, creating more armside run than metrics account for. The four seamer is holding him back a bit with his apparent lack of armside run in his arsenal, so the development is seen as important in him projecting up to the next level.
Right now he projects as a late 3rd early 4th round pick, but has what seems like a very low floor. If he is fine tuned, Selvidge could easily project into the middle of a rotation.
The way Selvidge gathers his energy (leg lift), and subsequently drives down the hills, rotates, and delivers pitches is very Liariano esque.
*JP Massey (R)
6’5’’ 180
Minnesota
Massey is one of my favorite right handed college arms due to the insane extension he gets. At 6.9 feet, Massey gets himself closer to the plate than almost anyone else available in this draft class, making his low 90s fastball appear to play mid 90s. Massey also throws a change and curveball, the latter of the two being his best out pitch.
He is a guy that fits the idea of the low approach angle really well, and with further room to fill out, I’d expect to see him consistently touching 95 in the next couple of years (he tops out 94–95 now). Massey has a very repeatable delivery, sinking into his glutes really well on his drive. Arm speed is consistent, and his clean mechanics leave me worry free in regards to stress related arm injuries (from a mechanical standpoint).
He is a solid pick for the mid second round, and is one to follow in regards to development heading into 2021 (we could see him shoot up).
Massey’s elite extension and plus separation are on display in this photo. He stays very linear upon landing, which gives him the ability to fully rotate (lots of torque) upon delivery.
Part 2 of this 3 part series will release soon, featuring 15 more 2021 draft prospects.