Week six of the weekly mailbag diving into your questions and providing what information we know. While I (@JoeDoyleMiLB) will be the one writing the piece, this is always a team effort. We’ll all see these questions and provide what insight we can. We all have different industry connections and different regional access, so I’ll be leaning on my team of Geoff (@ProspectJesus), Tyler (@TylerJennings24) and Ian (@FlaSmitty) for their expertise as well.
We’ve talked about Brady House quite a bit in recent weeks, and for good reason. He’s one of the more famous names in the entire class, and has been for a few years.
I think I speak for the entire Prospects Live Draft team when I say we really, really like House. He’s an incredibly physical athlete with a ton of twitch and explosiveness at the plate. He’s a big-bodied shortstop with a legitimate shot to stick at the position long-term. At worst, he’s a plus defender at third base.
The narrative surrounding House’s draft stock has always revolved around the hit tool and that really hasn’t changed. He’s looked good this spring. Last week, he went to work against arguably the top 2022 high school arm in Dylan Lesko. House registered three hits, including two doubles. That’s a good day at the shop against a guy throwing mid-90s cheese. We really like the approach improvements he seems to have made at the plate, as well as staying inside the zone with his swings. The team is a bit more split on House’s swing as it’s presently constructed, but at just 18 years old, the swing is going to look a whole lot different four(ish) years from now when he debuts.
We’re all in agreement he’s likely a top-20 pick and more likely probably fits in somewhere in the 6-15 range.
Sal Frelick’s power projection is certainly a hot button topic. Outside of the juice, there’s a lot to like about Frelick. He’s a plus hitter with a swing that should have no problem translating into pro ball. He’s got great bat speed for his size and has shown he can use the whole field. Frelick is really quick out of the box and clocks 70-grade run times. That should help him get on base and put pressure on infielders at the next level.
In terms of the power, I think most of us at Prospects Live believe he’s a future 40+ power bat. That would slot him in as a 10-15 homer guy at his peak. We’ve compared his game to Brian Roberts here before.
I think the power projection will certainly give teams pause. Teams at the top want impact if they’re going to drop $4 million on a first round pick. That said, I think the skillset is just too intriguing for him to fall out of the top 10-12 picks. So long as he keeps hitting all season.
Most of us believe the answer is yes.
Heritage Hall RHP Jackson Jobe is getting some seriously high praise on the scouting trail these days. His name is being talked about by teams in the Top 10. He’s got an extremely athletic delivery, a fastball that’s been up to 98, and a super high-spin slider that grades out double-plus.
Mainland Reg. HS RHP Chase Petty appears a good bet to go in the Top 15 as well. Without sounding too exaggerative, Petty has prodigious arm talent. He’s been up to 102 on a number of occasions in-game. He’s got a 70-grade breaking ball and the changeup flashes plus. Some teams will undoubtedly have pause due to the prep righty demographic and the long arm action, but Petty’s stuff is so good, it could play out of a big league bullpen right now. That sort of talent just doesn’t last long.
Outside of Jobe and Petty, North Oconee RHP Bubba Chandler is a popular name at the top as well, though his profile is a little more divisive and polarizing among evaluators. Calvary Christian RHP Andrew Painter is another potential Top 15 pick, though his command and in-game performances this spring have pushed him toward the back-half of the first round now for most scouts.
It’s pretty hard to ignore Hagen Smith at this point. He’s coming off his 5th no-hitter of the season. Yes, 5 no-hitters this spring…
Smith is a talented lefty out of Bullard, Texas. He possesses prototypical size (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) with projection left in his frame. An Arkansas commit, Smith works mostly 90-93, but has reportedly been up to 96 with heavy sink on his fastball. His go-to secondary is a hard slider with late vertical movement. He works in a looping curveball and a changeup that’s flashed significant progress this spring.
Smith is a bit of a late bloomer on the draft circuit in that he’s got some injury history. He’s been working diligently cleaning up his mechanics as he’s had the tendency to get arm-heavy at times.
The injury history and mechanics will scare some teams away, but it’s hard to argue with five no-hitters. Hard to say where he fits in the draft right now, but he’s got scouts’ attention.
Love this question. This is an industry to check your ego at the door.
I was a pretty big believer in the arm talent and frame of Riley Pint, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations. Control and command issues have done Pint in to this point in his career, though maybe he has a future role in a bullpen if he can find even below average command.
Elsewhere, I really liked Victor Roache in 2012, Eric Jagielo in 2013, Trey Supak in 2014, Jagger Rusconi in 2015 and Blake Rutherford in 2016.
Can’t win em’ all.