(Source/Georgia Bulldogs)
As we’re now deep in the middle of the 2021 college baseball season, and we are slowly becoming aware of quite a few things.
Jack Leiter has been utterly dominant and emerged as the top draft prospect in the country. Henry Davis and Sal Frelick have entered themselves into a new tier of college bats and the influx of underclass talent throughout the country has just been astounding.
One thing we thought we knew heading into the 2021 season was that Kansas State’s Jordan Wicks was the clear cut top left handed pitcher in this year’s class, and that still may be the case but i'm here to say that gap may be a lot closer than we first thought.
For my first solo article since joining this stellar team here at Prospects Live, I wanted to dive into who I believe can be the first left handed college pitcher off the board in just a few short months. University of Georgia senior Ryan Webb was a very popular name in the 2020 draft class and is someone I’ve been advocating for long before this season began.
Case in point.
If you’re only a casual college baseball fan then the name Ryan Webb may not be a familiar one, but the Roswell, GA native has been a mainstay in the Bulldogs bullpen the last three years as a high leverage, high K reliever and making the occasional spot start his freshman year, but this year is a brand new role for Webb.
Friday Night Starter.
Webb was in line to make the opening day start against Evansville until he was hit with a bout of COVID-19 in the middle of January that set back his throwing program by just a few weeks. The 6’1” senior was able to make his season debut just a week after opening day with a three inning ramp-up start against Gardner-Webb and we were off to the races. We are now seven starts into his 2021 campaign, and let’s find why those outings have led me to put such a lofty ceiling on his draft stock.
First the basic numbers going into this weekend’s start…
34.2 IP - 11 ER - 12 BB - 55 K - 2.86 ERA
Webb has been able to maintain his high K rates in his limited innings while keeping damage to a minimum in the best conference in the country, but what really has me excited is when you break down how he’s doing it.
This is a true four pitch mix with a very advanced feel for all four pitches leading to a current 40% whiff rate and opponents slashing .189/.268/.370. That’s something you very rarely see from a former primary reliever, but easy to see with Webb’s pitch mix. Fastball, curveball, slider and changeup make up his arsenal, and you see a glimpse of that elite command/stuff combo you see from the best pitchers in the country when Webb has it all working.
First and foremost, a low 90s fastball is the bread and butter of the lefty’s arsenal, with a usage rate of nearly 50% so far this season. Webb has been effective with this pitch to all quadrants of the strike zone, utilizing some heavy arm side run and consistent late life. The overall movement and spin profile of Webb’s fastball is very interesting, As he averages a shade under 19” of induced vertical break (IVB) combined with averaging 2350RPM at 95%+ spin efficiency. There is quite a bit to like in the overall shape of this pitch, but there’s been some hiccups. Left handed batters have seen this pitch really well, slugging .560 with just a 9% whiff rate compared to .395 and 31% from the right side. Webb also has allowed 4 of his 6 total HRs on the year off the fastball while having the lowest whiff rate of anything in his pitch mix, but the quality aspects of this pitch are still hard to ignore.
Command at the top of the zone will be the key to the fastball reaching its full potential, Webb has shown slight command issues at the top of the zone early in counts, which has led to the fastball getting hit harder than it should with its profile. If that is ironed out then this pitch takes a big leap.
When you talk about the secondary pitches that Webb offers, I start to feel even more confident that Webb can reach his ceiling.
Simply put, the curveball has been one of the best pitches in all of college baseball this season. Webb has thrown the curveball 114 times this season for a total of… one single and just 6 balls in play.
You can find this pitch on Aisle 12 on your weekend trip to Home Depot, this is a flat out hammer in every sense.
Webby averages mid to high 70s on a pitch that holds tremendous 11-5 shape out of his high arm slot. Above average vertical and horizontal movement allow Webb to miss barrels at the tune of a 50% whiff rate and notching 12 of his 55 strikeouts on the curveball alone. Another pitch Webb shows an innate feel to spin as well, running it up to 3000 RPM this season, and averaging over 2800.
Here’s a great look at the hammer getting the strikeout of Vanderbilt SS Carter Young in a massive spot last weekend, in the midst of his career high 13 K dual with Jack Leiter. In my mind, this is the best pitch he’s thrown this season.
While this pitch has been a weapon to left and right handed hitters alike, Webb has utilized the curve at a much higher rate to RHH so far this season. After seeing these numbers, a more equal usage may make this pitch a clear cut plus offering.
As I gush about the curveball, it’s Webb’s slider that he personally feels can be his best pitch going forward.
Currently with the lowest usage rate of the pitch mix at 12% but loud results. A low-mid 80s offering with a gyro movement profile that shows occasional sweep and tunnels extremely well off of the fastball. Webb’s ability to throw strikes while missing barrels with this pitch shouldn’t be understated. Sporting a cool 64% whiff and 28% chase rates while pounding the strike zone at 62% is outstanding. Hitters can’t seem to pick up the spin out of his hand, with 12 strikeouts in just 71 sliders. Shows the real ability to be a consistent out pitch.
Shoutout to Pitching Ninja for shining a light on some of the filth we saw last weekend.
So if we’re keeping up, that’s now two breaking balls with a whiff rate of at least 50%, and now we need to chat about the pitch that makes him a long term starter in my eyes, and that’s the changeup.
Now I mentioned Jordan Wicks before, and this isn’t quite on that tier of cambio but Webb has advanced feel and movement that you just can’t teach.
Another offering that Webb will command extremely well (72% strikes) and do more of that missing barrels thing. To drop just a couple more percentages on you, how about a whiff and chase rates of 58 and 48% respectively. Whew.
Averaging almost 85mph on the pitch allows for a near 10 mph velo separation off of the fastball while maintaining arm speed to keep hitters off balance. It will create a near parachute action when it gets to the plate where it just dies and runs. Webb has almost exclusively used this pitch against right handed bats with 6 of the 97 pitches going to LHH, but I see this pitch being highly effective to both sides of the plate going forward.
So…now that we’ve seen the entire arsenal, we are talking about plus command three pitches with whiff rates of 50% or better and a fastball that can touch 95 from the left side. Now let’s not forget to add in SEC pedigree, repeatable mechanics and high level makeup.
Ryan Webb sure sounds like a first round arm to me, how about you?