Every organization has a different philosophy in the war room on draft night, but one popular approach as the rounds go by is taking players with a carrying tool. A guy that has double-plus speed or better can find a way to impact the game. A guy with double-plus or better raw power can develop into a pinch-hitter. A double-plus fastball can work out of the bullpen.
With any luck, some development of a player with a carrying tool can be a real coup for a big league organization.
Back in 2010, Corey Dickerson was lauded for his bat. Some scouts slapped plus raw power and on the stick, and folks in the industry loved the body. Despite that, he fell due to questions over his arm and ability to run. He fell 260 spots into the eighth round where the Colorado Rockies took a shot on him. A decade later, he’s been to an All-Star Game, won a Gold Glove, and has two 24-homer seasons under his belt.
In 2015, the Cardinals drafted Paul DeJong and many scouts believed he was better off developing as a catcher. DeJong had legit pop. Only Alex Bregman had more home runs in their collegiate career among 2015 draftees than DeJong, and Bregman had an enormous edge in plate appearances (2,238 to 1,597). DeJong ended up going in the fourth round. Pretty good for a guy who’s been one of the better power hitters at his position in the big leagues for some time now.
In 2016, the Red Sox grabbed Bobby Dalbec in the fourth round out of the University of Arizona. It was always 70-grade power, but scouts wondered if that would be enough to buoy his value to the bigs. Well, in 2020, he debuted for Boston, going long in ten percent of his at-bats. It’s still early, but that’s a great sign for a fourth-round pick value.
With that said, what names should we be paying attention to come July when the 2021 MLB Draft rolls around? Or better yet, what names are expected to light up the box scores in amateur baseball this spring?
Power
1) Alex Toral - 1B - Miami
2) Niko Kavadas - 1B - Notre Dame
3) Cael Baker - 1B - Ole Miss
4) T.J. Collett - DH - Kentucky
5) Elijah Cabell - OF - Florida State
6) Ryan Holgate - OF/1B - Arizona
Toral has long been revered for his raw power going back to his days at Archbishop McCarthy HS. The pure strength and ability to lift is certainly there for Toral, though strikeouts and plate discipline have been an issue at Miami. That did show improvement in 2020, though he’ll have to show it again in 2021 if he’s to reclaim some of the upside surrounding his name in 2017. Kavadas is a big, strong, hulking lefty in the box who’s hit for power at every stop. Unlike Toral though, the data behind Kavadas supports the notion of next-level impact juice. The Irishman led the entire country in both average exit velocity and max exit velocity in 2020. He’s no joke.
Baker is a three-true-outcome guy at Ole Miss, but the raw power is undeniable. He’s a slugger right now but hasn’t shown the ability to purely hit. If that changes, his name could rise. Collett is a tall, well-levered lefty with big, whippy bat speed who’s shown power to all-fields. He, too, has been a renowned power hitter for a couple years now. Collett will be 23 this season. Cabell, like Toral, has been a ‘famous’ name since his high school days. Some had him a day-one pick in 2018. Unlike the other four players, Cabell can player a corner outfield spot thanks to a plus arm. While the power may be impressive, he’s also posted strikeout rates near 40% his first two years on campus. That must improve.
Holgate may go higher in the draft than any of the players listed above. He really made huge strides during the summer of 2020. Some scouts have said it’s double-plus power. He had some loud balls-in-play in 2020, and the loft is natural and easy. Big name to watch.
Speed
1) Luke Brown - OF - Louisville
2) Braiden Ward - OF - Washington
3) Blake Dunn - OF - Western Michigan
4) Spencer Myers - OF - Notre Dame
5) Noah Bridges - OF - UNC Wilmington
6) J’Quann Smith - OF - Georgia Premier Academy
Brown heads a list of speedsters who not only snag a ton of bases, but each of them play a pretty solid brand of defense as well. Brown is a legit 70-runner, maybe better. He plays a dynamic centerfield for the Cardinals. He’ll likely lead off for Louisville once again in 2021 where his speed, put a good hit tool, should lead to plenty of chances to create havoc. Ward may be the fastest player in the class. He was draft-eligible in 2020, though teams passed. He doesn’t present much value in terms of impact with the bat, but he’s a very good defender and a nightmare on the base paths. Dunn was also draft-eligible in 2020, but he’ll head back to Western Michigan representing one of the more dynamic players in the country. He’s a pretty good hitter who stole 30 bags in 2019. Myers will be a name to watch. At the time the season was cut short, he was hitting .431 with a .492 on-base percentage. He led the country with 15 stolen bases in 12 games. Bridges, like Ward, may be an 80-grade runner. He’s struggled with strikeouts and opportunities on the bases, though he’ll once again be a big cog in the Wilmington lineup.
Smith is one of the few preps on our lists, but he’s a sure-thing. The Georgia Premier Academy speedster has comfortably elite speed. The bat is still coming around, so it remains to be seen if he’ll hit enough at the next level to create opportunities for himself, but the pure ability is there and it’s loud.
Hit
**We’ll preface the top hitters by saying these are guys who are not expected to go in the first round. Being a good hitter is the most-heavily weighted tool for position players in the draft, so naturally, the hitters drafted early are generally regarded as some of the best. So, without further ado, here are the best under-the-radar hitters in the class.
1) John Rhodes - OF - Kentucky
2) Luke Brown - OF - Louisville
3) Cody Morrisette - 2B/SS - Boston College
4) Jacob Young - OF - Florida
5) Daylen Lile - OF - Trinity
Rhodes will be a draft-eligible sophomore in 2021. He’s been a huge performer at every stop, and frankly could play his way into the first round. In 2020 he slashed .426/.486/.672 with 12 XBH in 15 games. The kid also just doesn't strike out and plays a good outfield. He went on to bat .382 in the Northwoods League during the summer of 2020. He’s a well-balanced player likely destined for a corner spot. Brown, as previously mentioned in the speed category, can really put the bat on the ball. In his first year at Louisville, he hit .328 with just six punch outs. Hit hit almost .400 in his two-year career at Western Michigan before transferring.
Like Rhodes, Morrisette may ultimately end up being a first round pick as well. He’s a career .348 hitter for the Eagles, putting up a beefy .448 campaign in 2020. He also has a career K% under 15 percent. Young is a diminutive outfielder with a solid approach. He doesn’t strikeout, and like others on this list, was off to a hot start in 2020.
Lile is the sole prep on this list as we consider him one of the best pure hitters in the 2020 class. Lile’s ability to cover the entire strike zone and put the ball in play can’t be understated. He was one of the most impressive bats all summer and figures to be a consistent bat at the next level.
Stay tuned for Pt. 2, dropping soon!