Historically, the PNW has been a lower priority scouting area for the MLB due to its upper-left and cold weather state designation. It was simply more efficient to put more emphasis on scouting states with year round baseball and more population density. This year in particular it was tough, with some of the local showcases (as well as the Cape Cod league) cancelled and many players opting to stay at home due to health concerns.
However, with a flood of talent including the likes of Nick Madrigal, Tarik Skubal, Adley Rutchsman, Corbin Carroll and Mick Abel among others coming out of the PNW in recent years; the area simply can’t (and won’t) be ignored. On average, 6.7 PNW players are drafted in the top 5 rounds (per NWScoutGames) and 60 PNW players are on 60 man rosters. Players from the area will be drafted and drafted early. This means the PNW is uniquely set up to have “helium” prospects rocketing up 2021 draft boards late in the process when scouts see them for the first time in nearly two years. That made me really want to dive into the local draft talent and try to throw some darts at who those names will be. While this PNW class may not have a locked in top 15 player like recent years, I was surprised by the pure depth of talent in the area. Let’s dive in.
What better way to start then with the cream of the crop, the guys who have a shot to wind up getting drafted on day one.
Malakhi Knight
OF
Marysville-Getchell HS (WA)
6’3 190 R/R
Knight, arguably the top prospect in the pacific northwest this year, has the kind of athleticism that immediately stands out. The 6’3 190 17 year old has the picture perfect outfield frame for scouts to dream on with room to add 20-25 pounds of good weight to an already strong frame. Knight, a star basketball player as well has athleticism dripping from every facet of his game. The young outfielder has a simple, compact swing at the plate with easy bat speed and a line-drive geared bat path. He makes consistent, hard contact with easy bat speed and has put the ball out in a major event this summer. However, where he stands out the most at the plate is his remarkable hip/shoulder separation which should allow him to grow into more power as he fills out.
Even as of now, Knight has above average raw power. His patient approach and compact swing give him the making of an above average hit tool as well. Though he runs plus times, Knight will likely settle in as an above average runner as well once filled out. Add in standing out as one of the better defenders I’ve seen this summer with multiple highlight-reel plays and a strong arm...and you have the makings of a player who can be above average across the board. Then add in the physical projection to grow into plus power and a plus arm and you get excited. While he does appear to be a strong commit to Oregon State, there will be plenty of MLB scouts eager to get this kid into their development system. I don’t usually do comps, but I am reminded of Cubs prospect Brennen Davis, who was a second round pick in 2018. I expect Knight to be drafted in the same range.
Grade: Round 2
Max Debiec
RHP
O’Dea HS (WA)
6’7 200 R/R
Very few players in the class pack the pure upside potential of Debiec. The athletic 6’7 righty is unsurprisingly a basketball star at O’Dea as well and that athleticism translates over to the mound. Despite his height, Debiec pitches from a low ¾ arm slot, with his release points varying from 5’10 to 5’4 depending on the offering. While a 5’10 release point is fairly average for the MLB (5’9 being average) it is a true outlier for pitchers 6’5 or taller and should help keep hitters off balance, especially when combined with the plus extension from his frame. Debiec has been up to 97 with a heavy fastball that sits 90-94 early in starts before settling in in the 89-92 range after the second inning. Debiec’s fastball has a lower spin rate with sinking action that functionally plays similarly to Andrew Heaney’s sinker. Given the massive projection remaining in his frame, the upside for it to begin consistently sitting in the upper 90’s is there. Debiec’s best secondary is a 12-6 curveball with fairly low (2000-2300 RPM) spin rates but good spin efficiency that could tunnel well off of his fastball. He will also throw a mid 70’s slider (that has touched the low 80’s) with tight spin and a hard changeup that is still developing.
As you’d expect for a gangly 6’7 17 year old who has split time between two sports from a cold-weather state, Debiec has some moving parts and can get out of sync at times. He should add coordination as he begins to fill out and the natural athleticism should help him repeat; but with his natural length and a longer arm-action, there will inevitably struggles at times. Down the line, this could lead to reliever concerns, but Debiec should get every chance to stick as a starter. While Debiec is far from a finished product, he is absolutely dripping with upside and projection. His four pitch mix, frame upside and profile that offers uniqueness across the board could get his name called as early as the second round. Should he make it to campus at Washington, he has a true chance to develop into the Huskies first top 10 pick since Tim Lincecum. Very exciting profile.
Grade: Rounds 2-3
Mason Guerra
SS
Westview HS (OR)
6’3 195 R/R
Guerra, an Oregon State commit is older for the class but has truly electric offensive upside. Already 6’3 195 with a long, lean frame, Guerra projects to shift over to third base defensively. He is a solid athlete with an above average arm and shows good footwork coming in on the ball, so he should have little trouble sticking there, though a corner outfield spot could become a possibility as well. Guerra is a tick above average runner, who figures to grade out as average once he fills out his frame.
Where Guerra really stands out is at the plate. Guerra gets his weight moving with a calm rock-back approach and simple swing but stands out for his plus hand speed. When you see the simple approach, the charge he puts into the ball almost doesn’t make sense. This kid crushes baseballs with a consistent track record of hitting for power in games. Guerra’s simple approach allows him to stay back on spin, while his hand speed allows him to catch up to velocity. As a result, he has an advanced approach with much less swing and miss than you’d expect for a guy with his long levers. Guerra works counts, uses all fields in games and produces consistent triple digit exit velocities (including 103 in a recent PBR event), Guerra is a mature player in how he goes about the game, which is evident in his BP sessions where he works gap to gap before turning and launching to showcase his already plus raw power. Considering his already plus raw power, it’s scary to think about the impact Guerra could have once he fills out his frame.
All in all, Guerra projects as a power corner player whose value is tied to his bat. Average hit, glove and run tools with plus power and arm seem like a realistic outcome for a player who has been flying somewhat below the radar for his talent level.
Grade: Rounds 2-4
Kevin Abel
RHP
Oregon State
6’2 200 R/R
For such a big name, Abel is a bit of a confusing profile. The 6’2 command artist has been on MLB radars since high school and had his spotlight moment as a true freshman in the college world series of 2018. Unfortunately, Abel was lost early in the 2019 season to TJS and was unable to return for the shortened 2020 season, so we haven’t seen him in a live game in two full years. When healthy, Abel sits 89-92 with his riding action fastball and works more as a “paint the corners” type of pitcher than a power arm. He mixes in a solid to above average curveball that’s balanced out by a plus changeup that is his best pitch.
While Abel has solid control, he will get too cute at times trying to nibble on corners and has sported walk rates above 5 per 9 in both of his college seasons. His ability to work corners, mess with batters eyes and throw off timing have led to much more swing and miss than you’d expect for his profile. The injury history, walk rates and dependency on command after TJS are all current red flags and scouts will need to get live looks before taking him early. However, the combination of pedigree, college production at a major program and high floor should get him off of the board between the third and fifth rounds of the draft.
Grade: Rounds 2-4
While the “cream of the crop” guys are the Filet Mignon of this PNW Chateaubriand, the true meat of the piece. Let’s move on to the guys who project to come off of the board early day two.
Jack Enger
RHP
Washington
6’4 225 R/R
A non-scholarship walk-on in 2018, Enger has rocketed up the UW depth chart and was so impressive in 2020 that he actually stole the “ace” role from fifth round draft pick Stevie Emanuels during the season. Enger went 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA, 0.833 WHIP and struck out 28 batters in 24 IP across 4 games (3 starts) in his first year as a starter. Enger has an ideal pitcher’s frame and bumps 91-95, T97 from a high ¾ delivery. He compliments the plus heat with a hard mid 80’s wipeout slider and a developing changeup. Enger has experience in the backend of a bullpen and has stuff that would play up in that role.
A strong 2021 that builds off of his 2020 with a tick up in the change could get Enger drafted in the third round or higher. If teams view him as a reliever, he will more likely go in the 4-5 range. Command will be the key to Enger’s 2021 season as UW’s staff ace. Enger receives rave reviews for his work ethic, personality and make-up from the UW staff and teammates.
Grade: Rounds 3-5
Braiden Ward
OF
Washington
5’10 160 L/R
This kid can FLY! Ward is arguably the fastest player in the entire draft with true 80 grade speed. As is typical with players with his size and speed, he isn’t a huge power threat. However, he’s hit for decent power with wood bats on the Cape circuit, where he was an all star in 2019. The centerfielder gets plus jumps both in the outfield and on the bases, where he is a truly dynamic threat. As such, Ward projects to stick in centerfield and has a real shot to be among the best base stealers in the game.
Offensively, Ward has plus discipline but often fails to truly impact the ball at the plate for hard contact. As such, he projects to have an average hit tool with well below average power. Defensively, his jumps and range should allow him to stick in CF, although his fringe average arm means he would have to shift to left if unable to stick in center. Ward projects as a nine hole hitter, who will take his walks and work deep pitch counts, but ultimately adds more value defensively and on the bases. If you were to give him 500+ at bats, 60 or more stolen bases is within the realistic range of outcomes. But his bat could restrict him to quad A type duties.
Grade: Rounds 3-5
Mitchell Bratt
LHP
Newmarket HS (CN)
6’1 190 L/L
The top Canadian prospect in the 2021 draft, Bratt attacks hitters with a well-commanded low 90’s fastball, an above average curveball with sharp spin and an average changeup. Bratt sticks out for his command, control and poise on the mound. Results have simply been amazing. Hitters simply don’t reach base against him and he generates elite swing and miss. He has a loose, easy ¾ delivery with above average arm speed and should continue to tick up from a velocity standpoint.
As a pitchability lefty with upside in both frame and age (will still be 17 at the time of draft), Bratt will likely entice the eyes of scouts. Given the recent track record of advanced prep lefties, Bratt may be taken early enough to lure him away from a commitment to Florida State.
Grade: Rounds 4-6
Tyson Guerrero
LHP
Washington
6’0 195 L/L
Guerrero, a former Wazzu arm, was simply dominant in two starts for Lower Columbia CC in 2020, striking out 20 batters in 10 innings. The two-way player also hit for average, but his future is on the mound. A three-pitch mix led by a mid 90’s fastball and an above average curve (along with a below average changeup) will give the lefty a chance to start, but this is most likely a power reliever profile.
Guerrero is a bit undersized at 6’0 195, but can reach back for some heat in shorter stints and tunnels his curve well off of his fastball causing both offerings to play up. His change is very rough right now and will likely have to be scrapped if it does not improve. Command will be the key for Guerrero, who has been up and down in this area. There have also been a few off field concerns in the past, but at just 19 at the time, may be issues of the past. Regardless, there is upside for a backend MLB reliever if Guerrero can put it all together and perhaps more if the changeup improves to average. He’s an exciting and fiery arm to watch who could further unlock his potential for UW in 2021.
Grade: Rounds 4-6
Kenyon Yovan
RHP/3B
Oregon
6’2 225 R/R
Yovan has been on draft radars since his high school days, having both in 2016 and again in 2019. When healthy, Yovan can be dominant on the mound with a traditional starters four pitch mix highlighted by a low to mid 90’s fastball. Yovan was simply dominant for Team USA in 2018, posting a 1.08 ERA. He rolled into 2019 considered a potential day one pick, but missed the 2019 season with blood clots in his wrist and again struggled to get on the mound in 2020.
As such, the star may have faded a bit with Yovan’s potential starting future, but the bat really stood out in 2020. Yovan slashed .429/.566/.714 with 4 hr and 15 walks to just 9 BB across 15 games. Yovan stands out for his patient approach and easy plus raw power with an arm that plays well at third base. A team that drafts Yovan will have to be willing to take a gamble on his health and now age (he will be 23) but he has upside as an intriguing power bat at third who could be used in relief as well.
Grade: Rounds 4-6
Zane Mills
RHP
Washington State
6’4 215 R/R
Mills wasn’t exactly the highest pedigree player on the Wazzu staff, but he has quickly established himself as the best. The prototypically sized righty throws his sinking fastball in the low 90’s from a deceptive low ¾ arm slot. He pairs this with a solid average slider and a developing changeup. Mills repeats well and the frame says starter, but his pitch mix is currently more geared towards that of a ground ball heavy reliever.
Mills was phenomenal in his first year as a starter for Wazzu, going 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 32K/10BB over 25 IP in the shortened 2020 season. He has rolled that success into the Northwoods league this summer, going 3-0 with a 0.58 ERA, 0.742 WHIP and 26K/6BB over 31 IP. If Mills can develop his change and perhaps have a slight uptick in velocity, he could have a chance to start, though his stuff and delivery play up in a pen role. He will be a fun name to watch in 2021 and comes into the season with excellent momentum.
Grade: Rounds 4-6
Simon Lusignan
RHP
Foothills Composite HS (CN)
6’5 200
Lusignan, A Stetson commit from Quebec (now playing in Alberta) has one of the deepest repertoires in the entire prep class with an ideal pitcher's frame. The 6’5 righty has room to fill out, but is already touching 94 mph and sitting 88-91 in games. He compliments the fastball with an upper 80’s splitter, low 80’s slider, mid 70’s curve and a solid changeup that gets 10 mph of separation from the fastball. All five pitches are usable and he is consistently in the zone.
Lusignan has a good deal of deception to his delivery with a hesitation leg kick and short arm stroke. This should help his stuff play above its grade early on. Whether Lusignan winds up traveling south to Stetson or playing for an organization in 2021 is still up to decision makers, but the young righty has an intriguing pitch mix on day 2.
Grade: Rounds 4-6
Chad Stevens
SS
Portland
6’4 190 R/R
Stevens, a long, lanky SS for the Pilots may be at a smaller school but was actually drafted out of high school. Stevens may shift to either third or second base ultimately but has the range to stick at the position for now. Stevens has power from the natural leverage in his frame, and while he has yet to consistently tap into it, he showed signs of doing so in 2020 hitting 10 XBH in 16 games. Stevens still has plenty of room to add good weight onto his frame, which could lead to more power as well.
Stevens slashed .299/.373/.493 in 2020 and made big strides with his approach. He profiles as a physical upside utility player who could take his game to a next level with MLB coaching. He should go mid day two.
Grade: Rounds 4-6
Kyle Manzardo
1B
Washington State
6’1 195 L/R
Simply put, Manzardo was absolutely dominant in 2020. He slashed .435/.500/.694 in the covid shortened season with 10 extra base hits (3 HR) in 16 games. The performance had him named a third team All-American by Collegiate Baseball Magazine. It also caught the attention of Brian Greene who comped him to a former player of his, Kris Bryant.
While he may not be Bryant, Manzardo certainly has a feel for hitting. The left-handed hitter has continued his success to Northwoods, where he has turned on the power with a wood bat, slashing .297/.408/.534 with 7 home runs in 33 games. Perhaps most importantly, Manzardo has shown an improved approach in Northwoods with an almost equal K/BB ratio. Manzardo is a bit below average size at first base, but makes up for it with above average range at the position. You can easily see the makings of a 50 hit, 55 power bat here. But with Manzardo’s ability to consistently make improvements, it’s possible to dream on a bit more.
Grade: Rounds 4-6
Nathan Deschryver
RHP/OF
Bainbridge HS (WA)
6’2 185 R/R
Deschryver, a Gonzaga commit, has a long, whippy ¾ delivery with above average arm speed and solid future projection. Deschryver has been sitting 88-92 with his fastball and has touched 93 at times with future projection to consistently sit in the low 90’s. He rounds out the arsenal with a 78-80 slider and a mid 80’s change up. The change is ahead of the slider right now but both flash average when they are on.
Deschryver also plays in the outfield where he has a strong, accurate arm and takes good routes. However, his future is on the mound. Older for the class, Deschryver will command some scouting attention, but is likely best suited to end up on campus at Gonzaga, where he will have a chance to emerge as a premier starter for the conference.
Grade: Rounds 4-6
Kai Francis
RHP
Bainbridge HS (WA)
6’3 180 R/R
Francis is somebody who really jumped for me in film study. Young for the class, Francis is the kind of frame and delivery you dream on. Francis has an easy, athletic delivery featuring a high leg lift. He keeps he lands tall to generate considerable leverage and has quick, natural arm speed. It’s an easy,repeatable delivery, but one that projects to add significant power as he matures.
Francis sits 85-88 (has been up to 92 in games though) right now but controls the pitch well and projects to add significant velocity to the offering over time. His curveball is his best pitch with wiffle ball 11/5 movement in the low to mid 70’s. More power will come on the pitch and projects as an easy plus pitch. He throws a high 70’s change that will need to add arm speed, but has good sinking life to it. All in all, Francis is more intriguing future stuff than “now” stuff and that’s a profile that often makes it to campus. As such, he could join draftable Bainbridge teammate Nathan Deschryver at Gonzaga. However, Francis is the prototype of an arm that teams who value age and projection into models will covet. Very exciting young arm who could really jump.
Grade: Rounds 4-6
Anything can happen in the draft, which was more clear than ever in a wildcard filled 2020 draft and signability/org fits will always play a huge role. But the mid to late day two projected picks are undeniably the meatiest portion of the PNW ‘21 class.
Cameron Clayton
SS
Lakeridge HS (OR)
6’0 185 R/R
One of the biggest risers this summer, Clayton has really shown out in workouts. The quick twitch, lean, high-waisted shortstop has looked cool, calm and controlled defensively this summer. A plus athlete, Clayton has posted plus run times and could continue to get faster as he adds good weight. Clayton has shown surprising power and lightning fast wrists, even producing 100 mph exit velocity. With his frame, it’s easy to dream on above average power in the future. However, where he has truly stood out is his ability to hit in games. Clayton makes consistent, hard contact with a patient approach and excels at picking up spin. There are the makings of an above average hit tool here.
Clayton is older for the class (already 18) but his combination of physical projection, athleticism, now hit tool and premium defensive position should get him looks from scouts. If he makes it to campus at UW, he should have a chance to compete for a starting job very quickly. Really exciting young player who you can dream on becoming a 55 hit, 55 power, 55 run player playing up the middle if it all comes together.
Grade: Rounds 5+
Crosby Albee
3B
West Salem HS (OR)
6’2 225 R/R
The lack of buzz I’m seeing for Albee makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Is he the best athlete in the history of the planet? No, but he’s not bad for his size. He has an arm that has a shot to play at third or a corner outfield spot. But when you’re writing about Albee, that’s not what matters. This kid has true, rare top of the scale power. Legitimate 70 grade maybe more raw power. It shows too. In a recent PBR event, he recorded a top exit velo of 108.6! Not only that but a 431 foot bomb and average distance of 324 feet and average exit velo of 96 mph...average. That’s insanity. The bat speed is ridiculous. His 85.7 max barrel speed dwarfs that of even Benny Montgomery (generally considered to have the top bat speed in the class). It’s just insane pop. More than just the easy pop, he gets the ball elevated as well. Should he make it to campus at Oregon, Albee would have genuine 20 HR in a year type upside. That said, scouts rarely let this kind of power get to campus.
Grade: Rounds 5+
Jake Holcroft
OF
Portland
6’0 180 L/L
Holcroft has always hit in games, but nobody expected this kind of debut at Portland. Holcroft hit .484/.522/.758 with more xbh (11) than strikeouts (7) across 15 games. He also chipped in 5 walks and 4 stolen bases. Holcroft is an advanced hitter with a good two strike approach and above average bat to ball. He has fringe average power and above average speed, though a fringe-average arm limits him to left field defensively.
Grade: Rounds 5+
Trace Tammaro
1B
Portland
6’3 225 L/L
Tammaro, the first baseman for Portland was arguably the best hitter in the WCC last year slashing .333/.438/.733. The big lefty learned to tap into his plus power in 2020, hitting 7 HR in just 16 games. More than just power, Tammaro has a good eye at the plate and rarely strikes out. While he is unlikely to become a star player, he’s a solid defender at first base with prototype size and left-handedness. You can see a potential 50 hit/60 power ceiling and that should get him drafted in day two.
Grade: Rounds 5+
Antonio Guerrero
3B/OF
Fife HS (WA)
6-0 190 R/R
As much as I love new school scouting, every once in a while there’s just an old school throwback player that makes you just say some cliche like “this kid can just hit”. Guerrero is that player for me. Is he the best athlete ever? No, but he’s solid. Is the bat path ideal? No, but he stays back and the barrel is in the zone for a long time. Will he play a premium defensive position? No, but he can play third, corner outfield and possibly second base. Is it rare bat speed? No, but it’s above average and more importantly it’s functional bat speed.
All of that to say, the kid just puts the barrel on the ball damn near every time. If it’s not the best prep hit tool in the PNW, it’s damn close. Teams that value consistent, hard contact will love this kid. It’s easier to optimize a swing than it is to teach someone how to have plus bat to ball skills. Guerrero has the potential to be a name that gets called much earlier than people expect. If not, he has a real shot to earn at bats quickly at UW, due to his advanced hit tool.
Grade: Late Day Two
Kyle Fossum
OF
Eastside Catholic HS (WA)
6’2 180 R/R
Fossum, a UW commit, has flown a bit under the radar due to a 2019 summer lost to a lower body injury. However, this kid has big time upside. He’s shown well defensively in the outfield with good ball tracking and a strong arm that profiles in right field. That said, where he really shines is with the bat. Fossum has a simple lower half in his swing, shifting his weight efficiently and generating plus bat speed from extremely quick wrists. Currently, the swing is geared towards gap to gap linedrives, but there is above average raw power with the frame to grow into plus. Fossum has always hit in games when healthy and shows solid plate discipline considering the long layoff from in game reps. He’s recently started flashing triple digit exit velocities as well, so the power is really coming. If you want to bet on a bat without sacrificing too much defensive value, Fossum is a solid play.
Grade: Late Day Two
Micah Bucknam
RHP
M.E.I HS (CN)
6’1 180 R/R
Bucknam, who has grown up in a combo of Seattle, New Zealand and Canada hasn’t exactly been in a traditional set up for baseball talent, but make no mistake, this is a dude. Bucknam, who has a clean, athletic delivery and build that should add another 15-20 pounds of good weight already has solid stuff. Bucknam sits 90-92 with a fastball that has touched 94 and still has projection remaining. He compliments the pitch with a high 70’s slider and a mid 80’s changeup. It’s a nice pitch mix that should continue to tick up, but where Bucknam really stands out is with his clean delivery and strong command of all three pitches.
This is a polished young arm with notable pitchability and big projection. The UW commit is fairly reminiscent of a right-handed version of former UW commit (current Diamondback) Brock Jones who obviously was signed away from campus. Should he make it to campus, Bucknam could move quickly into the rotation and earn day one consideration but will likely attract attention from scouts now. It’s also worth noting that Bucknam is young for the class and will only be 17 on draft day.
Grade: Late Day Two
Collin Montez
OF
Washington State
6’2 210 L/L
Montez has the tools to become an impact college level bat, but is unlikely to ever hit well enough to justify his left field only profile in the big leagues. That said, he flashes average hit and power and is an average runner. He has a chance to get drafted as quad A type depth and could possibly tick up if more power can be unlocked in his game. He has really struggled this summer in Northwoods.
Grade: Late Day Two
Ernie Yake
2B/SS/3B/C
Gonzaga
5’11 170 L/R
Yake gets the “gamer” moniker from scouts due to his ability to play above his natural tools. From a pure scouting standpoint, Yake has four average tools with well below average power. However, he seems to be one of the guys who just “gets it”. HIs baseball IQ is an easy plus grade. This has allowed Yake to get on base consistently at Gonzaga, including slashing .338/.403/.523 with 2 HR, 3 SB and a 7BB/5k ratio over 15 games in 2020.
Defensively, Yake isn’t a standout at any one position but has the ability to play across the diamond and even has experience as a catcher in HS. This versatility makes him valuable as a utility player at the next level. While Yake lacks the ultimate upside of the other early day two players, his high floor, makeup and versatility (along with signability) should make him a target for teams.
Grade: Late Day Two
Troy Claunch
C
Oregon State
6’0 200 R/R
It’s not fair to ask someone to follow in Adley Rutcshman’s footsteps, but that’s Claunch’s burden to bear. Claunch isn’t the same level of player, but has above average pop and a good understanding of how to call a game. High floor college catchers will always be in demand for teams looking to round out their catching corps.
Grade: Late Day Two
Mitchell Verburg
RHP
Oregon State
6’4 208 R/R
Verburg missed the end of 2019 and all of 2020 with UCL surgery, but was highly regarded as a prep and simply dominant out of the pen in 2019 for the Beavers. Verburg will touch 96 with a fastball that he pairs with a hard slider from a high ¾ delivery. Career 1.27 ERA with a 0.906 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 over two years in Corvallis. High leverage upside.
Grade: Late Day Two
Cullen Kafka
RHP
Oregon
6’4 220 R/R
Kafka has been a name in draft circles for a few years due to an ever impending breakout. The righty has an ideal frame and throws three distinct pitches, including a low to mid 90’s fastball. Everything is just average and lacks any distinct out pitch. Late day two project arm that is based more on frame and pitch mix than results thus far.
Grade: Late Day Two
Jake Pfennings
RHP
Oregon State
6’7 195 R/R
Drafted out of his Idaho high school, Pfennings has always been a high pedigree project. Pfennings can hit the upper 90’s at times with projection simply oozing from his frame and has been given chances to start early. He’s fairly athletic for his size, but has thus far had problems with command and consistency. Has a chance to jump up if stuff ticks up this year but relief risk is obvious.
Grade: Late Day Two
Jake Dukart
2B/SS/3B
Oregon State
6’2 185 L/R
Drafted by the Red Sox out of high school, Dukart instead made it to campus in Corvallis where he was signed on as a QB prospect for the football team. Ultimately, Dukart wound up the starting across the infield his freshman year before settling at second base in 2020. Dukart has shown good bat to ball skills and an absurdly good eye at the plate, but has simply failed to impact the ball enough to profile as an everyday starter despite a solid frame (6 xbh in 49 games, all doubles).
Grade: Late Day Two
David Rhodes
RHP
Washington
6’2 210 R/R
Canadian arm drafted by the Mariners out of high school with a three pitch mix anchored by a low 90’s fastball, power curve and an average change. Rhodes has a chance to jump in 2021 as a starter, but has simply been hit harder than his profile suggests and lacks much physical upside in his frame. Stuff is good enough to jump into a backend type arm with improved command and sequencing.
Grade: Late Day Two
While that wraps up the players I currently have first two day grades on, this PNW class is particularly heavy on guys who could rise into that range with a strong 2021 spring. Next up we have the “high follow” category of player. These are the type of guys who often sneakily sign larger bonuses in rounds 11-15.
Nate Leibold
RHP
Ballard HS (WA)
6’3 195 R/R
A personal favorite of mine as he plays HS ball literally 2 minutes away from me, Leibold has been a somewhat polarizing name in scouting communities this summer. Leibold, A UCLA commit and 2019 standout, came into the year with momentum to go in the top five rounds, but has been a bit down with his velocity and hasn’t played in as many events. As such, Leibold is a good bet to wind up on campus for the perennial championship contending Bruins, but he has shown the type of stuff to impress scouts. At his best Leibold has sat 87-91 with sinking action, flashes a mid 70’s curve and a changeup with plus shape and velocity separation. He would be well served to add something with horizontal movement to change batters eyes, but he shows stuff that works in games.
Leibold has a very compact arm-action that should allow him to repeat well and prevent hitters getting a good look. He throws with an athletic delivery featuring a high leg raise that really allows him to get his hips through. He seems to have a good feel for pitching and is willing to work up in the zone. If Leibold’s stuff ticks up again in spring, he could easily wind up being drafted but he projects as an arm that could pitch himself into the top three rounds at UCLA. Frame, mechanics and pitchability all check boxes.
Grade: High Follow
Caden Vire
LHP
Skyview HS (WA)
6’5 175 L/L
One of the youngest players in the entire class, Vire stands out as the definition of projectable. 6’5 175, Vire has legitimately 50 plus pounds of room for good weight to come on. Vire sits in the mid 80’s currently with a fastball that consistently touches 89. The pitch has good, late life and he has plus plus extension that really makes the ball jump from his left-hand side. The fastball is oozing with projection and could become a true plus pitch in time given his extension and projection though it’s fringe average currently. Vire will mix in mid 70’s curves and sliders that can blend together at times but both flash average. His changeup is currently too close to his fastball but has upside given the arm speed he throws it with.
The Arizona State commit has been a bit all over the place with his velocity and control, not surprising for a 16 year with a rail thin 6’5 (conservatively) body. He will struggle to repeat his release consistently and command has come and gone. But he’s also posted some silly statlines. At Perfect Game 16 Under West Elite Championships, he struck out 20 batters over 7 ⅔ innings with just one hit allowed! He also walked 9 batters over those same 7 ⅔. All in all, Vire stands out as an arm who could reaaaaaally start to jump in a year or two once he starts to fill out his massive frame and gain more coordination/power. Whether that will happen at ASU or for a pro club will be seen in June and depend greatly on his spring. Deceptive 6’5 lefties don’t grow on trees.
Grade: High Follow
Jack Johnson
3B/OF
Archbishop Murphy HS (WA)
6’2 210 R/R
One of the top uncommitted players in the class, Johnson stands out for his power. A teammate of Malakhi Knight, Johnson will get plenty of pro scout looks and should impress a few along the way. Johnson is a big kid with a big frame and as such will never have great long speed, but he makes it up with a plus first step and solid “baseball speed”. This allows him to play third or right field, where his arm is a good fit. He’s still learning things defensively, so it’s lucky that the bat will play.
Johnson has a very simple, easy and balanced swing but generates truly electric bat speed and has excellent hip separation. More than just bat speed and high end exit velocities, Johnson has a knack for getting the ball in the air and should get the ball over the fence a healthy amount with above average raw power. The frame doesn’t offer much projection, which caps the ceiling a bit, but he’s a fairly optimized bat with a solid blend of hit and power. He also pitches and would have a shot to get on the mound should he play in college.
Grade: High Follow
Jed Decooman
RHP/OF
Mulgrave HS (CN)
6’4 190 R/R
Decooman, who is young for the class, has an ideal blend of frame and athleticism on the mound. The Canadian UCSB commit sits 86-88 with more coming with his heater. He compliments this with a curveball/changeup combo that both show the ability to be average or better pitches down the line. Decooman gets good leverage from his frame and has generated a ton of swing and miss whenever he’s on the mound.
In a perfect world, he shortens his arm action in the back but the delivery works well. He needs to become more consistent with his location, though adding weight to his frame should help. He has an easy 25-30 pounds of room remaining on the frame that is truly the prototype for an arm. Right now, it’s all projection but it’s a nice ball of clay to work with. UCSB has also done very well developing this profile, so he will be a name to keep an eye on should he make it to campus. Decooman is also a solid athlete in right field with a strong arm and notable pop.
Grade: High Follow
Loreto Siniscalchi
RHP
Ecole Alpha HS (CN)
6’3 200 L/R
Siniscalchi has been on radars since starring for the 2016 Team Canada in the LLWS but the stuff justifies it. He sits 85-91 with an above average curve and solid average changeup. More than just the intriguing stuff, Siniscalchi has a very long history of playing for the top local teams and against the top talent at a young age. The Wazzu commit has a decent shot to make it to campus, but he has enough stuff and scouts have gotten enough looks for someone to fall in love.
Grade: High Follow
Zach Toglia
3B
Gig Harbor HS (WA)
6’3 200 R/R
The younger brother of Rockies first round pick Michael Toglia, Zach has a similar frame and somewhat similar (although not quite as loud) skillset. Toglia is a solid defender at third with a plus arm and quick feet. The Utah commit hits from a wide base with a toe-tap and has a swing with both length and natural bat speed. He’s hit well in games and has natural home run power that should be plus at maturity and is already producing loud exit velos. That said, there will likely be some swing and miss given his natural length. Just how committed he is to Utah might determine if he winds up on campus or goes pro. He profiles as an early day three flier teams who think they can develop the power will covet. If not, Toglia could put up some serious power numbers in college playing in Utah’s high altitude environment.
Grade: High Follow
Justin Van De Brake
OF
Washington State
5’11 190 R/R
A transfer after two years staring at Tacoma Community College, Van De Brake hit the ground running for the Cougars slashing .333/.420/456 with 2 HR and 4 SB in 16 games. He has since transitioned this into .277/.361/.471 line in the Northwoods league. Van De Brake is a left field only profile and lacks any one true standout tool, but he can do a bit of everything and has always hit at every level.
Grade: High Follow
Stephen Lund
C
Gonzaga
5’11 190 R/R
Bat first catcher with good bat to ball skills and average power but an aggressive approach and fringey arm. Valuable depth at a position of need for most teams with some offensive upside and a solid catchers frame.
Grade: High Follow
Gabe Matthews
1B
Oregon
6’2 225 L/R
High performance college first baseman who should be cheap to sign and could potentially unlock some untapped power. Likely lacks the offensive upside to profile at first base in the MLB, but has an average hit tool and a solid approach. Will be 23 at day of draft.
Grade: High Follow
Last but not least, let’s toss in a few more names to keep an eye on including two potential Adley Rutchsman replacements and the top prep in Idaho.
Aj Miller, OF, Oregon
Christian Peters, RHP, Portland
Michael Tsoukalas, C, Arlington HS (WA)
Hyatt Utzman, SS/RHP, Pullman HS (WA)
Wilson Weber, C, Sam Barlow HS (OR)
George Eisenhardt, RHP, Lakeridge HS (OR)
Ayric Robinson, OF, Centennial HS (ID)
In summary…while this ‘21 PNW class may not wind up having any first round picks for the first time since 2016 (and that’s not a sure thing) it makes up for it with sheer depth of talent. All of this talent showing without a full college or prep season, without a Cape Cod League and without a full summer circuit is impressive; and that’s before we inevitably start to see surprise breakouts this spring! The PNW is quickly becoming a baseball talent hotbed and 2022 shows no signs of changing that.