Primer
Before getting into the actual players who impressed me this week, it’s important I touch on the importance of some of the concepts I will be mentioning regarding said players later on in the piece. This primarily has to do with pitchers, namely the importance of release height and vertical approach angle when evaluating a fastball.
While most stay away from talking about vertical approach angle in the public sphere, most of the progressive teams value it highly when evaluating a pitcher’s fastball. Vertical approach angle is simply the vertical descent angle of the pitch as it travels from the pitchers’ hand toward home plate—it will almost always be negative, unless a pitch is legitimately rising. While progressive teams definitely do covet fastballs with plus vertical movement, some teams value vertical approach angle even more than vertical movement. I’ve begun to fall more into the “approach angle reigns supreme” boat, as approach angle is what the hitter literally perceives in terms of movement. A fastball with 20 inches of vertical break, which would have most people thinking flat angle due to the magnus effect, might have a steeper angle depending on the pitch’s velocity and release height.
The perfect example as to why vertical movement might not be the best way to describe a fastball’s capability of competing in the strike zone for swings and misses would be Max Scherzer. Scherzer has a fastball that would appear to be pretty pedestrian in terms of movement characteristics—14 inches of vertical movement and 13 inches of horizontal movement suggests a pitch that is better suited playing at the bottom of the zone for ground balls, but Scherzer’s release height is 5.2 feet, an extremely low number (only 6% of big leaguers with 500 pitches thrown had a lower release height) which is unsurprising given his low three quarters slot. Scherzer releasing the pitch from a low height is one thing, but it’s also important to note that he has elite velocity, elite spin (averaging almost 2500 RPM), and has an understanding for where his fastball plays—up in the zone; his average fastball location is at 2.62 feet which is in the upper third part of the zone. All these characteristics added up gets you to the conclusion that Scherzer has an extremely flat vertical approach angle on his fastball which enables him to throw it past bats with ease in the strike zone.
The too long, didn’t read version of this primer is something like this: movement characteristics, velocity, spin characteristics, pitch height, and release height are all variables that impact vertical approach angle. If one area is deficient (deficient with regards to creating a flat angle, which most people prefer), there has to be compensation from another variable—e.g. if a pitcher has a generic release height he has to induce a lot of vertical movement, have elite velocity, and locate up in the zone to create a flatter angle. All these characteristics/variables play off of each other, and are all important when evaluating how a fastball (or other pitches) will play.
Pitchers
Gage Jump
LHP/OF
5-11, 180
Aliso, CA
UCLA Commitment
Jump probably won’t hear his name called in the first round next summer due to an unfair stigma surrounding shorter pitchers, but he’s still one of my absolute favorite prep arms this year, and performed in a pretty loud way at PG Nationals. When talking about Jump you have to mention his fastball—it’s a pitch that befuddles hitters and evaluators as it sits in the low 90s, but generates an elite amount of whiffs in the zone. Due to Jump’s height, he’s able to release the ball from a lower height than someone typically would be able to who had a similar, high three quarters arm slot (comparing Jump to someone like Christian Little, who I will touch on later, only emphasizes the difference height makes in fastball quality). As a result, Jump is able to induce above average vertical movement while keeping his release height lower.
At the same time, he pitches to his strengths and locates his fastball up in the zone consistently. Because of these factors, he creates an extremely flat vertical approach angle on the pitch, which makes it ridiculously hard for a hitter to square up because in order to make solid contact you have to match the plane of the swing with the plane of the pitch, and in Jump’s case the plane of the pitch is very flat and most swings work up at least a small amount. Jump isn’t only limited to a fastball though, his curveball is also promising, and while he didn’t need to show it much this week because hitters couldn’t touch his fastball, it has a vertical movement profile with an opposing vertical axis relative to his fastball that creates a spin mirror.
Mechanically speaking, Jump is solid. He shows an extremely efficient, glute-dominant hip hinge (which also allows him to lower his release height in conjunction with his height), and has an efficient arm-action that doesn’t have much in terms of wasted movement.
Jump hip hinge pattern
His arm is on time, and he creates an impressive amount of separation, which I guess isn’t super surprising considering he’s up near the mid 90s despite a smaller stature. The only downside with Jump’s profile is projecting future velocity gains; he’s close to maxed out physically, and already displays pretty efficient mechanics. Still, he has more than enough velocity to survive and thrive given the characteristics on his fastball and curveball. Finding a third-pitch that he is confident in will be the next step in his development, and something to watch as the summer unfolds.
Maddux Bruns
LHP
6-2, 210
Saraland, AL
Mississippi State Commitment
Bruns arguably had the loudest showing this week, considering his combination of velocity and pitch characteristics—being left handed also doesn’t hurt. Bruns piqued my interest when Baseball America published a video of him pitching at the U15 trials in Miller Park, Bruns clearly had ideal fastball/curveball traits at the time, but the velocity hadn’t shown up. Well, Bruns spent quarantine improving some mechanical inefficiencies, namely working to improve his kinematic sequencing to ensure a greater degree of separation between the upper and lower body. As a result, he came out sitting 93-96, touching 97.
He throws with a vertical arm slot which when coupled with his height creates a release height that is around 6 foot, or more generic; this is fine because Bruns averaged around 2400 RPM on the fastball, with most of it being transverse as opposed to gyro spin. The efficient spin and the vertical axis lead to a noteworthy amount of induced vertical break which helps him maintain a flatter vertical approach angle on the pitch despite the generic release point.
Bruns’ curveball mirrors his fastball well, as it’s topspin heavy, and the higher arm slot allows the vertical approach angle to play steeper (steeper on a curveball is normally preferred). He also flashed a slider with some promising traits, giving him a pitch more oriented laterally to go with the vertical fastball and curveball. All things considered, the pitch characteristic profile is very similar to Reid Detmers—obviously Detmers had a ton of track record behind his name, but he also doesn’t have Bruns’ velocity or promising third pitch. The control is going to be the swing skill here, as it’s still a relative unknown with his new velocity.
Cale Lansville
RHP/MIF
6-0, 205
Centennial, CO
Louisiana State Commitment
Right behind Bruns for me in terms of jaw-dropping performances was Cale Lansville. I had gotten a hold of some of his pitch data prior to his outing, and was surprised given the rarity of his fastball metrics that he was a relative unknown before Saturday night. Lansville has the ideal intersection of well above-average induced vertical break (around 18-19 inches), low release height (around 5 feet), and velocity on his fastball. The pitch plays super flat all throughout the zone, but especially up, where he blew multiple hitters away throughout his outing.
To go with the fastball, Lansville flashed an easy plus, and possible plus-plus slider. It has a high degree of gyro spin, which is preferred especially considering he showed tremendous feel for commanding it to his glove side—glove side, high gyro degree pitches add transverse spin (i.e. spin efficiency) throughout ball flight when thrown to the glove side, which generally means late movement. I’ve heard he also has a true curveball (people were confused with the slider’s designation), that’s more vertical in its movement profile. Lansville finishes out his repertoire with a changeup that lags well behind his other three pitches—it has too much lift or hop to it (around 14 inches) which has it playing like a more mediocre HS fastball; he seems to be a good fit to add a splitter in the future, due to the flat vertical approach angle his fastball generates, adding a change with a steeper angle would probably be ideal.
Lansville’s command is incredibly advanced for a prep arm, especially his command of his slider. He sits 92-95 now, but he’s still physically immature, sporting a young face and a frame that is carrying a bit of baby fat. It’s reasonable to project top-of-the-scale velocity once he adds some strength. The profile is extremely interesting, and probably one that will be talked about a lot amongst teams in the first round range come next summer.
Josh Hartle
LHP/1B
6-5, 195
King, NC
Wake Forest Commitment
It’s interesting to compare Hartle to Jump, as they’re both able to create flat vertical approach angles on their fastballs, but in entirely different ways. Jump does it thanks to his stature, but on the other hand, Hartle is big, and needs to manipulate his arm slot while sitting deep into his glutes to create an extremely low release height for being 6’5”.
Hartle sitting deep into glutes
Hartle slot manipulation
The low release height creates a tremendous amount of deception due to his actual height, and the angle created via release height and high spin allows the fastball to play flatter. Hartle also has a sweeping curve, with a pronounced element of horizontal movement thanks to the low slot—the orientation of his arm towards first base allows it to add a decent amount of late movement glove side considering it’s more slurvy in nature than a pure sweeping breaking ball—a la Chaz Roe—as the pitch continues to add spin efficiency. Hartle’s timing is pretty solid, but I’d like to see him show more of a feel for abduction/scap retraction in order to delay rotation a bit to create more separation. There is definitely room to add strength to the frame.
Michael Morales
RHP/1B
6-2, 200
Enola, PA
Vanderbilt Commitment
Morales was a guy I was looking forward to watching, as the data I had seen on his fastball was very interesting—up to 19 inches of vertical movement at a 5.3 foot release height and close to 95 MPH. Unfortunately, Morales didn’t show that kind of velocity here, but I’m still a believer in the fastball traits. He got hit around a bit, but mainly because he was living down with the fastball, as opposed to up where it should be much more successful. He’s going to need to work on ironing out the rest of the repertoire, however. His changeup has a bit too much hop (around 14 inches of vertical movement just like Lansville) and his spike curveball is in between a good curve and a good slider, with an axis around 7:20 and a gyro degree hovering around 50. Finding a breaking ball to play off of the fastball, and showing that the velocity he showed in pens is still there will be two things to watch from him going forward this summer.
Ryan Ginther
LHP/OF
5-11, 201
Hendersonville, TN
Vanderbilt Commitment
Ginther is kind of a funky look mechanically, but his fastball has the potential to be dominant with some further refinement—it’s nothing special in terms of raw spin, and he cuts it a bit right now, but like Lansville and Jump, he’s able to create the vertical axis (11:20 range), low release height combination. He also has a slurvy breaking ball, that plays more like a slider due to the aforementioned release height—because it’s being released closer to the ground, the movement profile is going to be a bit tighter/flatter unless he induces a ton of vertical break with a vertical axis (he doesn’t).
He might end up getting to Vanderbilt (shocker they identified his traits), but there’s a chance he really pops this year if he shows the ability to generate more transverse spin on the fastball, and can iron out the rest of his repertoire. It’s low 90s now, and the frame is maxed out, but he’s a powerful kid, and displays an extremely efficient lead leg block so there could be a bit more velocity there with more mechanical tweaks.
Max Debiec
RHP/1B
6-7, 202
Seattle, WA
University of Washington Commitment
Debiec had a loud week from a velocity standpoint. I had heard about him sitting in the low 90s with a ton of funk, but he came out touching 98 which certainly raised some eyebrows. Debiec is super tall, and he throws from a three quarters slot which leads to a generic release height on his fastball (5.9 feet). This would generally be okay if he was able to induce a ton of vertical movement to go with his velocity, but his axis hovers around 1:15, and his raw spin isn’t noteworthy, sitting in the low 2000s.
The off-speed stuff is also a bit weird with his slider and curveball profiles converging a bit; his slider is thrown with a 7:45 axis, so it’s slurvier, and his curveball is at 7:15. Both are low spin, but highly efficient pitches which leads to two pitches with drop and sweep. He also has a drastic change in release height from his fastball when he throws his off-speed stuff—his slider is released at 5.4 feet and his curveball is released at 5.7 feet.
The arm action is longer, but he shows a pretty good feel for syncing his movements up despite the size. It’s definitely a raw profile as things stand, but Debiec has made some pretty noteworthy improvements in the spring which has me cautiously optimistic about him fine tuning some of the things he’s lacking currently. Regardless, any pitcher with a projectable frame hitting the upper 90s is cause for intrigue.
Chase Burns
RHP/2B
6-4, 215
Gallatin, TN
University of Tennessee Commitment
Burns will probably be the most famous name on this list entering the summer showcase circuit, as he spent quarantine adding a ton of strength to his frame, and working to optimize some of his movements which has led to a huge uptick in velocity. Burns has a vertical arm slot, and a more generic release height (6 foot), but he generates huge raw spin, and has been up around 20 inches of vertical movement this spring. While his peak vertical movement is definitely loud, and showing the ability to get there is good, he’s a bit like Alex Santos in that he cuts the ball a ton, so he doesn’t always generate that level of vertical movement despite the vertical axis (12:45 range) and elite raw spin.
He toyed with lowering his arm slot to lower his release height this spring which is interesting, and would certainly have his fastball playing at an extremely high level with its velocity, low release, and high spin, but he came to the determination that it was smarter to stick with the more vertical slot/axis as he has better feel for his off-speed stuff with that slot. The fastball will still likely be elite if he can get rid of the cut, as you don’t see too many fastballs sitting in the upper 90s with elite vertical movement fail to play well.
He does a ton of things well mechanically—his arm is on time, and he creates a huge amount of hip/shoulder separation thanks to a feel for retracting his scaps, thereby delaying rotation.
Burns at foot strike—separation+abduction
The obvious comparison here will be Jared Kelley, as they both were the hardest throwers in their classes, but I think Burns is a bit more advanced than Kelley from a pitch characteristic standpoint. Like all young kids who throw hard, it’ll be interesting to watch how he continues to develop his control.
James Peyton Smith
RHP/1B
6-4, 215
Springfield, TN
Vanderbilt Commitment
Right up there with Burns in terms of velocity, Smith resembles Max Scherzer a bit. I’m obviously not saying he’s a Scherzer level prospect as a prep arm, just that in terms of mechanics and pitch mix, the resemblance is pretty clear. It’s an extremely violent operation, with a flat arm at foot strike and a head whack.
Smith at foot stirke
While the violence is unquestionable, and one of the main reasons why he resembles Scherzer, his actual arsenal is ridiculously explosive. He has a fastball that sits in the mid-to-upper 90s, from a lower slot (which in conjunction with his pronounced hip hinge produces a release height that is likely below 5 feet) which has terrifying life at the top of the zone thanks to his velocity and release height. He seems to still mix in a two-seam which is probably inefficient as it’s a lower spin pitch, and he should be prioritizing maximizing his spin on his fastball to ensure it will play up to its full potential up in the zone.
To go with the fastball, he shows great feel for pronation which allows him to generate a lateral axis on his CH, killing lift and creating fade. Like Scherzer, he also has a slider, and while its gyro degree isn’t ridiculously high, it still plays pretty well to his glove side. Smith likely won’t be everyone’s cup of tea as the operation is violent (see: the head whack in the image below), but his stuff is arguably up there with the top arms in this class.
Christian Little
RHP
6-4, 210
St. Louis, MO
Vanderbilt Commitment
Little was the most hyped up prospect coming into this week, and while there are definitely some things to like, I’m not sure the profile screams first round pick as things stand. He’s super young, which probably bodes well in terms of continued arm-speed as his body matures, but his frame is pretty close to maxed out and actually has some bad weight on it which could be a reason to believe in future velocity once he tightens things up.
My main concern with him is that none of the pitches really jump off the screen. It’s a generic release height, and while he seems to generate solid vertical movement, I’m not sure the vertical approach angle will ever be truly game-changing or anything like that—more likely it’ll be pedestrian. The curve might be a 55 eventually, but it’s got a bit too much gyro spin for my liking currently. The feel for a change at his age is probably what’s most impressive outside of the clean mechanics; he will likely have the changeup as a pitch he can fall back on as he continues to mature. It’s a rhythmic delivery, and he’s adept at employing a glute-dominant hip hinge. One thing to be wary of with the mechanics, however, is his timing; his arm is flat at foot strike, and will probably be something he works on going forward.
His profile doesn’t seem to suggest first rounder as a prep RHP, at least right now. Still, there’s stuff to like here with his youth and feel for a changeup.
Chase Petty
RHP/SS
6-1, 185
Somers Point, NJ
University of Florida Commitment
Here’s another guy who resembles a young Max Scherzer with a super low release height, loud present velocity, and feel for pronation. Petty sits 94-97 with big time life up in the zone thanks to his low release height and velocity. Petty’s axis on his fastball sits around 1:25 which makes sense considering the slot (Scherzer is at 1:26, for whatever it’s worth).
Petty has a changeup, that like Smith, he’s able to pronate and shift the axis enough to kill vertical movement while adding horizontal movement, and a sweeping SL that operates a bit more like Scherzer’s slider than Smith’s does—higher gyro degree mainly. Petty has a bit of a head whack which will turn some teams off, but he’s on time with his arm, shows feel for retracting his scaps to delay rotation, and creates a lot of separation. Weighing the violence versus the elite pitch characteristics will be an interesting discussion a lot of front offices will end up having, but I think as things stand Petty is one of the top prep arms in the class.
Brock Selvidge
LHP/OF
6-3, 205
Chandler, AZ
Louisiana State Commitment
Selvidge was one of the more touted prospects to enter the week, and he didn’t do anything to change that perception among evaluators. In terms of pitch metrics, he doesn’t really jump off the page for the most part, but he’s clean mechanically with a short arm action preferred by most of the progressive pitching coaches nowadays.
His fastball approach angle is pretty generic, standing 6’3” with a relatively normal three quarters arm slot; he’s working to add a “laminar two-seam” to his arsenal to hopefully create a fastball that has a bit more unique of a profile—the laminar two-seam was made famous by Trevor Bauer, and primarily describes a pitch that takes advantage of a physics effect known as the laminar effect which leads to a pitch moving much more to the side than what pitch tracking machines can pick up due to the distinction between the turbulent and smooth side of a baseball—which is definitely a promising sign as the generic fastball is probably what is holding his projection back a bit.
He’s experienced a bit of an uptick in velocity lately, and it’s reasonable to expect that to continue considering he works out in a progressive, Driveline-esque facility that emphasizes velocity development. To go with the new two-seam, he’s also working on adding a slider with more horizontal movement to give him a true off-speed pitch to turn to.
Andrew Painter
RHP
6-7, 225
Pompano Beach, FL
University of Florida Commitment
Painter is a guy who I’m very curious to see pitch data on, as his physical profile coupled with his release characteristics have me a bit concerned regarding the quality of the fastball angle going forward. Painter stands around 6’7” and has more of a high three quarters arm slot which leads to a very high release point, this suggests a steeper vertical approach angle generally, but Painter very well could be a guy who induces a plus amount of vertical movement on the fastball which would help the pitch play flatter from a high release—a unique look that would make the profile much more appealing.
From a mechanical standpoint, Painter is extremely impressive considering his frame; he sits well into his glutes, is efficient rotationally, creates a good amount of hip/shoulder separation at foot strike, and gets his arm up into a good position on time. Seeing a teenager with that sort of frame displaying that level of coordination is pretty rare (he implements Cueto-ish timing funk at times, all the more reason to be impressed by his coordination at his size), and definitely makes him pretty intriguing as a prospect.
While the higher release makes it more important for him to be able to induce vertical movement on the fastball, it plays to his advantage with regards to throwing a curveball—the higher release makes his vertical approach angle on the pitch steep just as a result of the release characteristics, not to mention the fact that he has decent feel for spin. To go with the curveball, he has a slider and changeup that both flash above-average. The fastball is probably what will make or break Painter’s profile; if he shows he can keep the pitch flatter by inducing hop, the profile will likely end up being one of the better ones among all the prep arms this years considering the quality of the secondary stuff and elite coordination/mechanics for his size.
Philip Abner
LHP/1B
6-1, 220
Charlotte, NC
University of Florida Commitment
Abner is a well-known name, and flashed improved control this week. He has a stubby frame, standing around 6 foot and being maxed out in terms of strength. His fastball sat in the low 90s and touched a bit higher than that, but it plays at an extremely high level thanks to his short height and ability to induce vertical movement from a lower release height—he’s a flat vertical approach angle guy, and has feel for spotting the pitch up in the zone. Abner also has a slider and a changeup, but both are more solid than plus currently.
Mechanically, there are some things to work on such as timing his arm raise better to ensure he gets his arm up at foot plant, perhaps shortening his arm stroke a bit as it can get long and behind his body. Abner is older, but the fastball is high level in terms of quality characteristics and handedness, and the result of the profile is developable. There’s a chance he ends up going late on day one (assuming the draft set-up is more traditional next year), but he also might get to Florida where I’d imagine he would be dominant from the get go. Watching the control’s development will also be important throughout the remainder of the summer.
Quick hits
Jackson Jobe
SS/RHP
6-2, 190
Oklahoma City, OK
Ole Miss Commitment
Generic release, but flashed rare ability to spin the ball with a slider spin rate that comfortably got over 3000 RPM. The velocity is already there, and he has been more of a position player, so there’s more upside to be unlocked with continued focus on developing as a pitcher.
Drew Gray
OF/LHP
6-3, 180
Swansea, IL
University of Arkansas Commitment
Another two-way guy who appears to have more upside on the mound, he has an extremely low release height thanks to a hip hinge that establishes a low height to go with an extremely low arm slot. The release characteristics are ideal, and he averaged around 2500 RPM with the fastball, albeit with a good amount of cut (understandable considering he isn’t a full time pitcher). The projectable frame, athleticism, and potential to have an elite combination of release and spin characteristics with the fastball make him an interesting guy to follow going forward.
Brady Tygart
RHP/1B
6-2, 195
Hernando, MS
University of Arkansas Commitment
Extremely low release height guy who has a fastball that will play will up in the zone, but still relies on a two-seam at the bottom of the zone a bit too much for my liking.
Mason Albright
LHP/1B
6-0, 190
Thurmont, MD
Virginia Tech Commitment
Funky LHP who likes to mess with hitters’ timing. Low release height with present velocity makes him a high priority follow going into the summer.
Hitters
Ian Moller
C/3B
6-1, 201
Dubuque, IA
Louisiana State Commitment
It was a rough week for hitters, as the general showcase environment tends to favor arms, and this year’s crop of arms was borderline historic from a talent standpoint. Still, Moller was able to stand out in a huge way, starting with his BP and carrying the loud showing over into the game. Moller’s swing is one I would describe as modern, generating consistent attack angles likely in the 15° range—it’s important to note that attack angle isn’t just one measurement, but consists of a few different angles (one being Vertical Bat Angle) to go along with where the hitter makes contact with the pitch (i.e. far out in front of home plate will lead to greater attack angles, behind home plate will lead to negative attack angles).
Moller has feel for creating a contact point with the ball that is out in front of home plate, has a steep VBA relative to most prep players (had him up over 30° in game), and is a rotational hitter—all characteristics that have me bullish about his power projection considering they’re traits that suggest an innate feel for pull-side loft. Where Moller really impressed was his advanced approach, as he always appeared to be in control of at-bats, despite being at a disadvantage due to the environment. He checks out metrically besides the steeper VBA too; Moller had the highest impact momentum measured among any prep bat this week, another sign that bodes well for future power projection. Mechanically, he shows a tremendous feel for staying connected during his turn, keeping his rear arm right up against his body up until contact:
Notice Moller’s rear arm at contact
To go with the potential plus hit/power profile at the plate, he shows some promise from a catch and throw standpoint as a catcher. The receiving is just okay, but robot umps will almost definitely be implemented by the time he debuts in the majors, so his arm and underrated athleticism will help him stick at the position. In terms of the modern catching archetype going forward—plus hit/power with catch/throw ability—this is what they look like.
Izaac Pacheco
SS/RHP
6-4, 220
Friendswood, TX
Texas A&M Commitment
Pacheco probably had the steepest VBA I saw in game among any of the prep bats, getting up around 35° which is really impressive for a 17 year old against high level pitching. Pacheco has a very aesthetically pleasing swing, although he fails to create much separation which is a bit of a worry as it pertains to generating rotational acceleration/torque—for a guy whose profile is bat-first, and likely limited to 3B/1B he’s going to need to tap into all of the power that his body is able to generate, and while the steep VBA has me optimistic about the hit projection, I’d like to see him work to create more separation at foot strike, opening up his hips more while keeping his torso counter-rotated.
Pacheco at foot strike—hips and torso at around the same degree of rotation
Luke Leto
SS/RHP
6-2, 190
Portage, MI
Louisiana State Commitment
Leto was arguably the most famous name in attendance among the hitters with Brady House not participating, and the week was unfortunately a bit of a mixed bag for him. While his ability to barrel the ball is evident, his athleticism and general looseness both in the batter’s box and at shortstop were disappointing. He’s a more linear hitter, and has an extremely stiff lower body mechanically, but does show pretty interesting bat to ball traits at this stage.
My worry, however, is that he will end up being relegated to 3B or RF due to the lack of twitch, as the reports on his fielding weren’t great. If the profile does turn into a corner profile, he’s going to need to loosen up some of the actions offensively to ensure he’s able to consistently get to power. Still, it’s important to note that this might’ve been his first game action coming out of quarantine, and he definitely could very well end up having a huge summer.
Jordan Lawlar
SS/OF
6-2, 185
Irving, TX
Vanderbilt Commitment
Lawlar was probably the second most famous hitter in attendance behind Leto, and had one of the more impressive showings despite not doing much in the games. In general, seeing a prep shortstop who could be a potential 70 defender show an extremely advanced mechanical set-up in the box with an advanced approach and adjustable actions would have most evaluators giddy.
Lawlar isn’t perfect offensively, he’s still a tad bit stiff, and I’m not sure he’s ever going to be able to produce high exit velocities, so he’ll have to show feel for lifting the ball to get the most out of his raw power, but it’s easy to dream on the profile with continued development. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was in the mix to go #1 overall depending on who gets the first pick; I’m not saying I’d take him there, but the defense and projection offensively will have him at the top of most draft boards. His only real “downside” is his age, as he’s slightly old for the class.
Benny Montgomery
OF/RHP
6-4, 200
Lewisberry, PA
University of Virginia Commitment
Nobody flashed louder tools than Montgomery who’s able to generate elite bat speed, elite exit velocities, elite throwing velocities, and elite run times. The swing is extremely quirky, with a lot of moving parts, but there’s definitely a level of functionality to the movements to go with the noise. He didn’t perform much at all in game, but it’s easy to envision him turning into a monster with the right sort of developmental climate.
If he was younger I’d feel comfortable saying he’s a lock to go in the top 20 to one of the more progressive teams with all his metrics that will undoubtedly boost him up in models, but he’s older and will need to perform a bit this summer to solidify a first round projection going into his senior season.
Braylon Bishop
OF/LHP
6-1, 196
Texarkana, AR
University of Arkansas Commitment
Bishop had a reputation for having the best tools in the class, but a raw approach at the plate coming into this week, and while the latter held true for the most part, it was the tools that kind of confused me. Bishop produces solid bat speed, but it was nothing special this week, and his ability to square balls up to produce big exit velocities also didn’t show up. The speed seems to be a 55 or 60, so there’s a solid chance he’s able to play centerfield for some time, but you hope the tools he’s showed as a younger teenager reappear this summer, and that this week was more due to the extended lay-off than a downward trend in development.
Mechanically, I like how he violently externally rotates his lead hip, this is a trait you see sometimes in guys who are able to generate big power despite being smaller—think Bo Bichette, Mookie Betts, etc. but would like to see him display a better level of connection, as his arm gets away from his body during his swing, likely playing a part in some of the swing and miss/inconsistent contact that has plagued his profile for a few years.
Bishop poor connection
Others who impressed
Daylen Lile
Alex Mooney
Corey Robinson
Luke Heefner
Harry Ford
Carter Jensen
I don’t know enough about these guys to give more than a quick sentence or two on each, but they all flashed in one way or another. Lile has an incredibly smooth LH swing with feel for separation, and has cleaned up his body. Mooney is a shortstop defensively, with thump in the bat (had some of the better metrics this week), but is old for a prep. Robinson ran a 6.3 60, is an easy CF, and creates an incredible amount of torque (see below) despite a smaller frame which has me optimistic about his future power projection. Heefner is the son of Dallas Baptist Head Coach, Dan Heefner, one of the more progressive hitting coaches in the country, so he unsurprisingly has a lot of efficient movement patterns and shows the ability to consistently make solid contact. Ford is a catcher with potential positional versatility, and a ton of bat speed despite launching with no bat wrap (his bat is vertical at launch). Jensen is another catcher who has a violent, rotational swing, and will be a fun watch this summer.
Robinson elite separation—hips almost completely open just as torso begins to rotate
Conclusion
It was definitely a fun week, as this prep class appears to be a step up from the last few classes. While I’m still iffy on some of the bats, that will probably change as they get a chance to perform more over the course of the summer. It’s also important to remember that we didn’t get a chance to see Brady House—probably my #1 overall prospect as things stand and one of the best prep bats to come around in the last couple of years—and Marcelo Mayer, an interesting no-doubt SS who could play his way into the top ten.
On the pitching side, I’d argue that prep pitchers are the strength of the 2021 class at this stage which probably doesn’t bode well for the class’s overall level of talent considering the volatile nature of the prep pitcher archetype, but it’s hard not to be incredibly impressed by how advanced most of the arms were that threw this weekend. My unconfirmed theory is that as more coaches have gotten more advanced, we are seeing more teenagers with optimized profiles biomechanically and from a pitch design perspective. If a kid is given the chance to workout at these progressive facilities (Burns, Lansville, Selvidge, etc), it’s more likely than not that they’ll dominate at this level as they already have the raw ability, but optimizing movement patterns and pitch characteristics makes these guys almost unfair at the high school level. I’m not sure how many arms will go in the first round, but as things stand I think I’ll have a good number of prospects graded out as third round caliber or better prep arms.
It’ll be fun to watch both the arms we saw this week and the bats continue to develop throughout the summer, and it’s important to note that these players are all under 18 years old for the most part—what they showed this week isn’t their finished profile, but more so just a check-up on their developmental path. It’s reasonable to expect someone who didn’t flash this week, to spend the summer improving inefficiencies, and come out in the fall showing new and improved tools, so don’t view any of these evals as me writing someone off or anointing someone based on a week of showcase drills/games, but more just checking in on where some of the most prominent prep players are at in their development following the long lay off from play.