For the second consecutive season, Orioles GM Mike Elias drafted a few bats and then a few more bats. Last year, it wasn’t until the eighth round that Elias and Co. selected their first pitcher. That trend continued this season, as the Orioles didn’t choose a pitcher until their sixth and final pick.
The difference this time around: Elias decided to play spoiler. Vanderbilt IF/OF Austin Martin was the chalk selection at #2 overall, but instead, the Orioles threw the league a curveball and took Arkansas OF Heston Kjerstad. Like a 15 seed pulling an upset in the Round of 64, everyone’s mock draft was immediately a mess.
An underslot selection was certainly not considered to be out of the realm of possibility, but Kjerstad’s name being called caught many by surprise. I’ll be honest, I was fine with it. I knew this draft was going to be weird and I’m a big fan of chaos. I did, however, expect pretty significant overslot talent with at least one of the Orioles’ next two picks (30 and 39). O’s fans didn’t get that wish until the final two rounds, when Elias made it clear that he had a plan all along.
Let’s take a look at each selection, my reactions, and where I see each guy fitting into my Orioles prospect rankings.
Pick 1-2: Arkansas OF Heston Kjerstad
The best left-handed power bat in the draft is a perfect fit at hitter-friendly Oriole Park at Camden Yards and I’m sure Orioles fans will enjoy Kjerstad’s yearly opportunities to wrap one around the Pesky Pole at Fenway Park or to take advantage of the short porch at Yankee Stadium. Kjerstad’s power carries to all fields, though, and his hit tool should play well enough that he won’t sacrifice a ton of batting average in favor of power, a trait he has shown consistently at Arkansas. Strikeouts are a bit of a concern, though that’s a reasonable trade-off for a guy with a 70-grade power ceiling. He’ll likely wind up in right field, where the Orioles haven’t had a regular inhabitant since Nick Markakis departed following the 2014 season. There, Kjerstad will pair solid enough defensive abilities with an arm that’s at least average.
Orioles System Rank: 4th( LHP DL Hall 3rd, OF Ryan Mountcastle 5th)
Grade: B+
Pick A-30: Mississippi State SS Jordan Westburg
Elias mentioned that he was targeting pitching here, but none of the guys he thought might fall were still available. One could assume Nick Bitsko was the guy, which would have made sense had he gotten past the Rays at 24. Instead, Elias grabbed another SEC bat, taking an athletic shortstop in Jordan Westburg. His carrying tool will probably be his speed, though he has a chance to turn his plus raw power into legitimate game power with a little growth. The trajectory looks good so far, as he’s improved at the plate year by year in college, cutting back on his strikeouts in the process. I don’t expect him to stay at shortstop, with a move to second or third more likely, but he’s athletic and quick enough to avoid being a liability no matter where in the infield he ends up. While this wasn’t the overslot move many expected here, Westburg has a chance to develop into a well-rounded infielder with an intriguing power-speed combo.
Where he ranks: 15th. (RHP Hunter Harvey 14th, SS Adam Hall 16th)
Grade: C+
Pick 2-39: Tulane OF Hudson Haskin
Many expected the Orioles’ first pick of day 2 to be a pitcher, and O’s fans seemed to favor prep arms Dax Fulton or Jared Kelley. Instead, Elias passed up on the available pitchers in favor of, you guessed it, another up-the-middle bat. I’m very attracted to players who walk as much as or more than they strike out, and Haskin fits that bill. It’s certainly not pretty - the Hunter Pence comparisons are valid - but Haskin consistently gets the bat on the ball and does it effectively. Defensively, he’s plenty good enough to stick in center field, with a plus arm and strong instincts which pair well with his plus speed. Haskin has a legitimate change to develop into a five-tool player if everything works out.
Where he ranks: 11th. (OF Yusniel Diaz 10th, LHP Zac Lowther 12th)
Grade: B-
Pick 3-74: Ole Miss SS Anthony Servideo
This is where I really started to question whether or not Elias had a legitimate plan, though I guess there’s a reason he’s the guy making draft picks while I’m watching from home with my hand stuck in a Pringles can. Servideo is a safe bet to remain at shortstop defensively and brings a fun energy to the diamond. His bat, though, is underwhelming, as he’s never been much of a hitter until this year’s shortened season. Especially concerning is his abysmal wood bat performance in the Cape Cod League last summer. This is a pick that tells me Elias really trusts his developmental staff, as Servideo will have to prove that his strong start to this season was no fluke.
Where he ranks: 20th. (OF Kyle Stowers 19th, LHP Drew Rom 21st)
Grade: C-
Pick 4-103: Stoneman Douglas HS 3B Coby Mayo
Finally, the plan starts to come together with the overslot pick we anticipated. Mayo has big, physical presence and a cannon for an arm and could prove to be an immense value pick as a fourth round selection. He’ll require some solid coaching to simplify his swing and really tap into the raw power he’s displayed, but the athletic ability is undeniable. Defensively, if the agility for third base isn’t there, he could find himself in left field, boasting a Cespedes-type arm. Mayo is far from a finished product, but as someone who fell into the Orioles’ hands due to signability concerns, he’s absolutely worth the gamble. On Friday morning reports came in that he signed for $1.75 million, showing Elias’ gamble paid off. Not to mention, Mayo’s name is tailor-made for the Baltimore accent.
Where he ranks: 23rd. (OF Ryan McKenna 22nd, SS Darell Hernaiz 24th)
Grade: A-
Pick 5-133: Dowling Catholic HS RHP Carter Baumler
I’ll admit, it hurt a little to watch the Tigers take prep 3B Colt Keith one pick before this, rounding out what was a fantastic draft for Detroit, but that pain was quickly relieved when the Orioles used their final selection on Baumler, another strong overslot candidate. Elias got his pitcher, and one with tremendous upside at that. Baumler’s mechanics are uncharacteristically clean for a prep arm and his changeup is already a strong offspeed offering. If he can grow into his fastball and develop at least a serviceable breaking ball, the Orioles are looking at a legitimate starter candidate. Elias’ crew has done a fantastic job developing pitching since the new regime took over and I’m excited to see what they can do with Baumler.
Where he ranks: 18th. (RHP Cody Sedlock 17th, OF Kyle Stowers 19th)
Grade: A
Overall: If you look at this draft objectively and evaluate the picks as a collective, it’s a really solid draft for the Orioles. It may not have been full of sexy picks but there’s tremendous upside here. As is the case with any draft, we won’t know for several years how things will pan out, but the Orioles have made strides in the two short years under new management and a completely revamped front office.
I’m still pretty new to the prospect evaluation game, but let’s take a look at my personal Orioles top 30, including the new additions:
C Adley Rutschman
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
LHP DL Hall
OF Heston Kjerstad
1B Ryan Mountcastle
OF Austin Hays
SS Gunnar Henderson
RHP Dean Kremer
RHP Michael Baumann
OF Yusniel Diaz
OF Hudson Haskin
LHP Zac Lowther
LHP Keegan Akin
RHP Hunter Harvey
SS Jordan Westburg
SS Adam Hall
RHP Cody Sedlock
RHP Carter Baumler
OF Kyle Stowers
SS Anthony Servideo
LHP Drew Rom
OF Ryan McKenna
3B Coby Mayo
SS Darell Hernaiz
RHP Gray Fenter
LHP Alex Wells
OF Elio Prado
RHP Blaine Knight
2B/3B Rylan Bannon
RHP Dillon Tate