With less than two weeks to go, we’ve been hard at work sourcing our contacts to get a strong feel for where teams are leaning. There have been significant shifts since our March mock draft and armed with more information, we’re confident with this version.
If you want detailed breakdowns of the names below, head to our recently released Top 101 MLB Draft Ranks. If you’re looking for video breakdowns and analysis of both individual players and teams, head over to our YouTube playlist that has just that.
1. Detroit Tigers- Spencer Torkelson, 1B
Easiest pick in the draft at this point, everything we’ve heard is that Tork is locked in at one. Martin and Lacy could be in play but that seems unlikely.
2. Baltimore Orioles - Asa Lacy, LHP
Early on we were hearing hitter here, but the tide is turning and we know Baltimore has preferred Lacy to Hancock even before that was publicly popular. Orioles grab another talented arm to add to their budding stable.
3. Miami Marlins - Austin Martin, SS
This is where things can get interesting to an extent. The Marlins have money (a little over $12 million) and there’s a chance they try and underslot with a prep player here, particularly Zac Veen. Whether or not that’s the case remains to be seen but Veen is in play from 3-7 currently. That said, we like Martin here who’s been linked to the Marlins throughout the process. Remember they tapped the Vanderbilt well just last year with JJ Bleday.
4. Kansas City Royals - Zac Veen, OF
What will the Royals do? That’s honestly the question of the first round and the biggest pivot point in the top 10. What we’re hearing is Veen or Nick Gonzales. Our inclination is they may save money on Veen. However, is Veen goes to Miami, Martin is likely the pick here.
5. Toronto Blue Jays- Max Meyer, RHP
Everything we’ve heard the two weeks has the Blue Jays heavily connected to the Minnesota righthander. Whether it’s due diligence or a backup plan, Meyer and the Jays have been in consistent contact.
6. Seattle Mariners- Nick Gonzales, 2B
Sounds like if Meyer is off the board the Mariners go with the second baseman out of New Mexico State. Gonzales has been tied to Seattle throughout the process.
7. Pittsburgh Pirates- Heston Kjerstad, OF
This is a bit of a shock considering some of the options on the board but Pittsburgh loves Kjerstad. There’s rumors that the two camps have been in contact and that a number has been discussed. Hendrick and Emerson Hancock could also be options here.
8. San Diego Padres- Robert Hassell III, OF
All we’ve heard is Hassell here, in fact we’ve heard the Padres are so infatuated with Hassell’s varied skill set they’d pass on Zac Veen if he each were available to San Diego at eight. Take that with a grain of salt, because no one expects Veen to be here.
9. Colorado Rockies- Emerson Hancock, RHP
Throughout the industry the Rockies are kind of a mystery, but if Hancock is here we feel it’s pretty likely he’ll land in Colorado. Other options could be Heston Kjerstad if his Pittsburgh links are smoke, or possibly Patrick Bailey.
10. Los Angeles Angels- Cade Cavalli, RHP
The Angels value velocity and Cavalli certainly has that in his big fastball. After laying off a significant amount of personnel, it’s honestly a toss up what happens here but we like Cavalli’s fit with the organization.
11. Chicago White Sox - Reid Detmers, LHP
We heard the same Bailey rumors you have but we’ve also heard they’re just not true. The White Sox likely go arm here and we think Detmers is their guy. A potential quick to the majors and that fits their burgeoning competitive window.
12. Cincinnati Reds- Nick Bitsko, RHP
For the analytically inclined, Bitsko’s recent Rapsodo readings were impressive in ways that take some understanding of pitch movement and the analysis of it. Who better to embrace this than recently hired Cincinnati Director of Pitching Initiatives Kyle Boddy. We love the fit here.
13. San Francisco Giants- Tyler Soderstrom, C
The Giants are heavily linked to Soderstrom and despite it being somewhat off best for Giants GM Farhan Zaidi to pass on a load of college performers, there’s enough juice in Soderstrom’s bat to see a team taking him here, signing an underslot deal and landing a college performer(s) in rounds two through five.
14. Texas Rangers - Austin Hendrick, OF
We’ve heard Hendrick is in play a few spots from 7 to 17, but we think he lands here with Texas. There’s a lot of possibilities here, and it’s reasonable to think Hendrick might even be off the board. If that were to happen we could see Cavalli or Beeter potentially being the pick. We’re hearing the Rangers are targeting college arms here that they feel can move quickly. They’ve been fond of Big 12 players in their own backyard before (Jung, Wendzel, Staten in 2019), and both Beeter and Cavalli fit that m.o. That said, they were prep heavy in 2018 and they could certainly be looking at Mick Abel, Jared Kelley, PCA, and others. College arms to consider are Slade Cecconi, Garrett Crochet, Cole Wilcox, Tanner Burns. There’s a lot of ways this pick can go quite frankly.
15. Philadelphia Phillies- Slade Cecconi, RHP
The Phillies value pitchers with loud arsenals and Cecconi has that. His stuff may also allow him to fit into a bullpen role in a shorten season with expanded rosters. There’s other arms in play here but we see Cecconi landing inside the first twenty picks.
16. Chicago Cubs- Garrett Mitchell, OF
We love the fit with the Cubs organization that has done a good job of targeting talented college hitters and developing them into good major leaguers. The hiring of Justin Stone of Elite Baseball Academy, brings a heavy technology driven focus to the organization that could be an excellent match for a talented player in need of some swing adjustments. Other names could be Kjerstad if he falls, but that seems unlikely at the moment, and a rash of other prep (Abel, Kelley, PCA, Bitsko) and college (Crochet, options.
17. Boston Red Sox- Mick Abel, RHP
Every Red Sox source we have had the team heavily linked to the righthander out of Jesuit HS in Oregon. If he’s available at seventeen we think Boston makes a splash here from the prep ranks as they have no second round pick and just $5.1 million to play with. Other options are Jared Kelley, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Garrett Crochet, and Austin Hendrick.
18. Arizona Diamondbacks- Dillon Dingler, C
Few players have risen up boards over the shutdown the way Dingler has. An athletic catcher with a history of playing centerfield, his bat and skills behind the plate have continued to blossom. We’ve heard some underslot prep hitters mentioned here as well, but we’ve also heard Dingler goes in the top 20-25 picks. They could also pool most of their money between two underslot picks at 18 and 33 to try and land someone for an overslot bonus in the third.
19. New York Mets- Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF
The Mets have mid-tier money and a need for a talent boost in the system. Pete Crow-Armstrong is one of the more famous names in the class. They might go college arm as well or even Dingler or Bailey.
20. Milwaukee Brewers - Garrett Crochet, LHP
Give the Brewers the guy with the best fastball and stuff remaining and let them figure out the rest. He fits the mold of the players the Brewers under David Stearns. Crochet could land a number of places before this but we like the fit with an organization that’s harnessed some wild arms. If Garrett Mitchell drops we could also see him in play here.
21. St. Louis Cardinals - Patrick Bailey, C
The Cardinals love to take a falling talent, and they land Bailey here. It’s very possible Bailey is gone but if the first round works out this way ahead of them we doubt they pass on the switch-hitting backstop. Dingler is a possibility here as well, as they love outfielders and catchers, and he’s a little of both. Other names we’ve heard are Pete Crow-Armstrong, as well as heavy smoke around Justin Foscue.
22. Washington Nationals - Cole Wilcox, RHP
The Nationals have taken an arm in the first round in three consecutive drafts and we think that tendency means one of the college arms lands here. Nick Bitsko is also a possibility if he hangs around to 22. Tanner Burns and JT Ginn possibilities too.
23. Cleveland Indians- Tanner Burns, RHP
There’s been talk of Cleveland targeting an arm from the college ranks, and Burns fits their profile. Good fastball and slider command and a bulldog mentality on the bump. Other college arms are possible too.
24. Tampa Bay Rays- Clayton Beeter, RHP
The Rays love to target college arms and grabbed a few last year. It wouldn’t shock us if they grab Beeter here and get to work on his arm action. There’s also the distinct possibility they land a dropping prep bat like Pete Crow-Armstrong or one of the college catchers.
25. Atlanta Braves- Justin Lange, RHP
One of the biggest risers over the spring, not only does Lange look like a lock on day one, it’s becoming increasingly likely he lands in the back end of the first round between the Rays and the Dodgers. An exciting arm lands in an organization once full of them.
26. Oakland Athletics- Chris McMahon, RHP
We’ve heard the Athletics heavily tied to college pitching. After missing out two years ago with Kyler Murray Oakland has to hit this one, and with a young competitive team coming into their own it fits the timeline. Other options could be any of the college arms over the last 12 picks that drop from where we have them, or a couple other arms we see dropping into the second.
27. Minnesota Twins- Aaron Sabato, 1B
The Twins love college performers and don’t seem to be scared of corner guys. Sabato fits that type but they could certainly go a variety of ways here including rising Arizona prep shortstop Carson Tucker or Arizona catcher Austin Wells.
28. New York Yankees- Carson Tucker, SS
Fangraphs Eric Longenhagen noted strong ties to the Yankees and Tucker and we’ve heard he’s very much in play from the late teens to the competitive balance A. One of the spring’s big risers, Tucker lands with a Yankees organization that has a murky draft record.
29. Los Angeles Dodgers - Bryce Jarvis, RHP
We believe the Dodgers go arm here and it’s a matter of what’s available. Many of the characteristics Jarvis possesses the Dodgers value, like his pitchability, movement profile and analytically focused training history (Driveline and Erc Cressey client).
Competitive Balance Round A
30. Orioles- Ed Howard, SS
31. Pittsburgh- Jared Kelley, RHP
32. Royals- Justin Foscue, 2B
33. Arizona- Dax Fulton, LHP
34. San Diego- Austin Wells, C
35. Colorado- Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP
36. Cleveland- Blaze Jordan, INF
37. Tampa Bay- Nick Loftin, SS