With new majority owner Steve Cohen gung-ho on fielding a perennial winner in Flushing Meadows, the Mets made a bold move to acquire superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor from the Indians Thursday morning. Right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco will also head to New York in the deal.
While the 27-year-old Lindor and 33-year-old Carrasco will head to New York, 25-year-old shortstop Amed Rosario, 22-year-old shortstop Andres Gimenez, 20-year-old right-handed pitcher Josh Wolf, and 19-year-old outfielder Isaiah Greene will head to Cleveland.
Lindor, a 4-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove winner and 2-time Silver Slugger recipient represents an immediate upgrade to the Mets middle infield. It is presumed, based on the magnitude of this deal, Cohen and the Mets will do everything in their power to sign Lindor to a long-term extension if those talks haven’t happened already.
Carrasco represents an immediate infusion of talent and reliability to the Mets rotation. The Venezuelan holds a career 114 ERA+, as well as a healthy 3.42 FIP for his career. He was the 2019 AL Comeback Player of the Year after his bout with chronic myeloid leukemia.
The haul heading back to Cleveland is substantial.
Rosario is a career .268/.302/403 hitter in New York, though of he’s begun to tap into more power of late. In 2019, Rosario slashed a .287/.323/.432 whist posting a healthier 100 wRC+. That campaign featured 15 home runs. Rosario will likely never be a thumper at the plate, fringe average power at best. He may peak close to 20 home runs in a season.
Where Rosario makes his money is on the dirt. He’s a quick-twitch athlete with a big arm who can make all of the throws. His actions grade out as plus in the field and we think there’s still growth to be had as the game continues to slow down for the Dominican shortstop.
Rosario has a long, lean frame that could conceivably handle ten more pounds of muscle. That said, at 25, he hasn’t shown the desire to bulk up yet, so the body as currently constructed may be in its final, peak, physically-matured state.
We ranked Gimenez the 29th best prospect in baseball prior to the 2019 campaign. A premier glove with a plus arm, Gimenez (or Rosario, for that matter) will represent every bit the defender Lindor was for the Indians. Thought to be more of a gap hitter entering the league, the Venezuelan born infielder hit .263/.333/.398 with two home runs in an abbreviated 2020 campaign. He did show some juice in the bat at times, though he’s likely nothing more than a below average power hitter at the big league level, likely peaking around 15 home runs in his prime.
The Indians will control Gimenez through at least the 2026 season, an obvious focus for Cleveland in the deal.
Also heading to Cleveland will be 2019 second round pick Wolf. We ranked Wolf the 11th best prospect in the Mets system prior to the 2020 season, though reports out of New York have been promising.
At 6-foot-3, now closer to 180 pounds, Wolf has a wiry, athletic frame. He’s got a quick arm and a sound delivery that he repeats well. Wolf’s bread and butter is a mid-90s fastball that has reportedly touched 98 in minor league instructs for the Mets. While he’s shown the ability to command the pitch to both sides of the plate, his command for the pitch can waver. He couples that with a plus breaking ball that shows 11-5 shape with good depth. He’s flirted with a changeup in the past, and that has been a big part of his development thus far. He projects as a back of the rotation starter, with the obvious upside of a high-leverage reliever if the command doesn’t buoy at a healthy level.
Greene was a favorite of several evaluators heading into the 2020 MLB Draft. At 6-foot-1, 185 pounds, Greene is an athletic, lean body with a high waist and long levers. He runs well, and projects to hit for average. The biggest question on Greene will be how much he’ll be able to impact the baseball at the next level. His swing, as currently built, is more of a slap-hitter, gap-oriented approach. He has solid bat-to-ball skills, though we do wonder if he’ll ever exceed below average power. At his peak, we project Greene a .275 hitter with single-digit home run pop, maybe flirting with 12 at his best. As previously stated, he’s a good defender with solid range and has shown the ability to take clean routes to the ball. There’s a reasonable chance he sticks in centerfield long-term. That said, we have Greene’s ceiling likely that of a fourth outfielder at the next level without a swing change.
Final Thoughts
Given the current climate and value the industry has put on “rentals”, this is a substantial haul for the Indians. Rosario and Gimenez have proven they’re solid big league regulars and both have the body and upside to tap into more impact at the plate moving forward. Wolf is the type of arm Cleveland will certainly sink it’s teeth into and there very well may be more in the tank there. Greene was highly-regarded this summer, and should Cleveland tinker with the swing a little big and unlock something currently not present, they may have a starting centerfielder at the big league level.
The Indians also shed close to $44 million in payroll for the 2021 season. While that is something we will never applaud on this platform, it was clearly a motivating factor for Cleveland brass and the return alongside it should be encouraging.
The New York Mets are the immediate winner of this deal adding a player in Lindor who should provide at least 5+ fWAR at a premium position on an annual basis moving forward. The team will have to pay the superstar infielder next winter, if not sooner, but that’s the cost of doing business and hunting for banners. Carrasco shouldn’t be slept on either as he now supplements an already impressive rotation headlined by Jacob DeGrom and a returning Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman.