It’s been just over a week since Bowman Chrome 2020 released. I previewed the release here and now want to take a look at how the product and the singles market is doing after the first week.
Let’s start with the product - I’m not going to call this a fire sale, but I’m also not not calling it a fire sale. Pre-sales at the major online retailers like Blowout and Dave and Adam’s were running around $250+ for Hobby Boxes and around $315 for HTA boxes. On the day of release, Topps posted Hobby boxes for sale and undercut the above prices by more than 10% at $220 per hobby box. Somewhat surprisingly, those boxes were available for more than 24 hours, a stark difference from what we have been seeing over the last six months with almost all products on Topps selling out in minutes or hours.
Fast forward a week and Hobby boxes are selling for $200 or less and HTA boxes are going for between $230 and $250. That’s a 20 percent discount from pre-sales for Hobby and 25 percent for HTA boxes. If you had told me that is where the market on boxes was going before Chrome released, I would have disagreed with you.
Taking a look at the single card values on eBay, the story is a bit more in line with pre-release expectations. The top sellers are Bayron Lora and LuisAngel Acuna, in the $300 - $400 range for the base 1st autos. Then you have a glob of players in the $100 - $140 range - Gilberto Jimenez, Erick Peña, Luis Matos, and Francisco Alvarez. It is slightly surprising to me that Jimenez is the player getting the best sales in this group at $140, but I think there is likely a slight team bump with the Red Sox collectors pumping him up. I am also a bit surprised that Peña is not a cut above this group, but that also may be a slight team drag with Royals prospects (outside of Bobby Witt Jr) not typically drawing over-exuberance type money.
All other single cards are going for less than $60, which isn’t the biggest surprise. I would’ve expected the Yankees collectors to really push at least one of their seven prospects in the product to the $100+ range, but it seems like they have kept cooler heads. They do have the top two pitchers in cost with Osiel Rodriguez ($22) and Yoendrys Gomez ($21), but those are pretty reasonable prices for top pitchers in the product irrespective of the players themselves.
It’s way too early to draw any final conclusions on 2020 Bowman Chrome. Just read my preview of this product linked here and above and you will see why jumping to conclusions is a mistake for this product above all others. But let’s talk about some of the reasons behind the early returns on the product.
Why are we seeing the product price declines and some lower than I anticipated product and single prices? There are likely many reasons, but a few of the ones that I feel have some impact, especially the first two, are:
There are plenty of Bayron doubters. The top player in the product is far from the highest ranked in dynasty circles. The fantasy and hobby communities don’t always agree, but they are typically in the same general vicinity, which isn’t necessarily the case with Lora. Taking a look at the below table, you can see that Lora barely cracks the top 250 in the Prospects Live Top 500 Dynasty Prospects.
No 1st base cards. I have yet to see any prospect base chrome cards (non-autographs) that carry the 1st logo. This is a big disappointment as collectors as well as prospectors want to go after the non-auto 1st cards, but are much less interested in the non-1st base cards.
While not a rookie-driven product, it doesn’t help that the top two rookies in the product (Luis Robert, Kyle Lewis) have struggled over the last month. This downward trend has also been reflected in their card prices across all products.
The collation of the cards has been a problem for the industry in general, but has been especially bad since COVID hit. This has been evident in Bowman Chrome this year, and while not a major impact, does tend to slow down people looking to buy multiple boxes or buy into breaks. No one, outside of maybe his family, wants 10 Graeme Stinson autos. It will likely send a few more people to the singles market than in years past.
Most prospectors and collectors in general have been chasing Jasson Dominguez over the last six months or more. A LOT of money has been thrown at 2020 Bowman Baseball and its derivatives (1st Edition, Mojo, and Sapphire) along with other products Jasson has been in such as 2020 Bowman Sterling. With no Jasson in Chrome, some of that new hobby money has already been spent or is sitting on the sidelines.
On the flip side of the coin, if any of these prospects fit in your PC, you have to be happy with being able to snatch them up at potentially bargain prices. And if you are prospecting or speculating long term, there is ample opportunity for grabbing players you believe in.
Similar to my Prospects Live Top 100 Card Board, I have included the full compilation of the Prospect Autographs from 2020 Bowman Chrome below. It shows the average price of the player’s base Prospect Autograph card (compiled on 9/25 and 9/26), what their 1st Bowman product was, if they have a 1st autograph in 2020 Bowman Chrome, where the player was ranked in the Prospects Live Top 500 Dynasty Rankings, and where each player landed in their teams Top 30 from the past off-season. For the average price, I included both buy it now and auction listings because of the potential for small sample sizes.