The Card Stock Watch is an occasional series where I will take a look at a current prospect who I think is worthy of buying or selling. Prospect card values are the most volatile asset in the baseball collecting hobby. As such, we should be plugged into the current trends and adjust our buying and selling strategies accordingly.
With the release of my first Prospects Live Card Board, there are a fair amount of players that have yet to debut and are worth diving deeper on their card values. Two weeks ago, I could have easily written this article about how I felt Alec Bohm, Sixto Sanchez, Ian Anderson, etc. were undervalued and to get in before their debuts. But with the MLB debuts coming fast and furious, the attractive buys from the Card Board have suddenly gotten smaller.
My first Card Stock Watch focused on a pitcher that I view as a sell (and still do), Clarke Schmidt. Today I want to take a look at the other side of the coin, a pitcher I view as a very strong buying opportunity.
Let’s start with the discussing the player himself. Grayson Rodriguez has all the tools and the look of a future ace. Coming in at 6’5”, 220 pounds and only just 20 years old, he is literally the create-a-player prototype for an SP1. He has four potential plus pitches - a fastball that lives at 95 and tops out at 97, a plus slider, and two developing pitches that show a lot of promise with a curveball and changeup.
Add in the newer front office run by Mike Elias bringing over the Astros positives (and hopefully none of the negatives) of analytics, pitch design, and high spin rates and suddenly the sky's the limit for Grayson.
The bigger picture for Rodriguez is that he could be Baltimore’s Opening Day starter by 2022 and I believe he has all the tools to become an ace. ” - Jason Kamlowsky, Orioles Top 30 List Author
Rodriguez is the second overall Orioles prospect in our Orioles team top 30 list and he came in at 39 overall in the recently released MLB Pipeline Top 100, which included the 2020 Draft picks. He has yet to make his MLB debut and it would be surprising if he did so this year, but he is currently part of the Orioles player pool at their alternate training site.
Now let’s discuss the comps and Rodriguez’s cards. I won’t fully rehash the pitcher card comps because they are essentially the same I wrote up in Schmidt’s Stock Watch, but here’s a quick summary. Young, highly successful pitchers (Nola, Snell, Buehler, Flaherty, Giolito, etc.) will see their 1st Bowman base autograph cards go anywhere from $30 - $120 with most hovering around $30 - $60.
On the prospect side, you will again see similar ranges from $20 - $100 with the highest end pitchers (Mize, Gore) going at the top of the range, but most sitting in the $20 - $50 range. The important point to note is that the potential aces have the opportunity to hit the $100 mark. In addition, the hot prospect pitchers who have well-publicized and successful debuts like a Brady Singer and a Nate Pearson will easily jump into the $50 - $75 range.
Grayson’s 1st Bowman card comes out of 2018 Bowman Draft. His base auto card from this product is running in the $20 - $25 range over the last 12 months. Over the mid-term, I feel comfortable that his card can easily double in value, and potentially quadruple in value.
In general, the pitcher card market is a tough one with lower net returns. This has a couple of implications - typically the entry points you make should be on the cheaper side and the player(s) you invest in should have a very high ceiling/ace potential. If I am investing in any current pitching prospect’s cards right now, that pitcher is Grayson Rodriguez.
*Prospects Live prospect lists are pre-2020 MLB draft
**Personal Collection Disclosure: I currently have one 2018 Leaf Valiant Ticket to the Show Purple Parallel and various base cards of Grayson Rodriguez