With the release of my first Prospects Live Card Board, I felt that an essential follow up to that would be looking at the foundational pieces for collecting prospect cards. Repeating the phrase from the tweet introducing the Card Board, prospect cards are the most volatile commodity in the hobby. Thus, it is of the utmost importance to understand the ins and outs when going prospecting.
There are two main components to collecting prospect cards: the players and the products.
The Players
This generally tracks with the mindset around collecting MLB players. At the top of the hierarchy are the power hitters and five tool players. The next rung is typically occupied by players that are significantly surpassing their peer group in a non-power tool - typically in the hit or speed tools. Think along the lines of Tony Gwynn, Tim Raines, and the like. There are some qualifiers that increase or decrease a player’s slotting in the prospect card desirability hierarchy - position, team, hype, MLB proximity, etc.
Position - In general, position players all have a similar weighting with a slight bump for shortstops as they have a higher potential for sticking at that or other positions. Position players that can’t field at all and are likely to end up as a designated hitter (Seth Beer, I’m looking at you) can see a slight ding for that.
However, the main exception for field players is the catcher position. With very few exceptions, you should be very wary with investing in catching prospects. Wear and tear, reduced playing time, and generally shorter careers all add up to a capped return for catcher prospect cards.
Finally, there are pitchers. The least desirable baseball position for prospect and MLB cards is the pitcher. Between starting pitchers and relief pitchers, starting pitchers are going to be far more valuable. One out of hundreds or maybe even thousands of relief pitchers will be a valuable long term card. You can get some decent value out of the occasional starting pitcher prospect card. But the acronym holds so very true in the prospect card collecting world - TINSTAAP (There is no such thing as a pitching prospect).
Team - The team hierarchy is typically based on standard popularity with the Yankees as the obvious king of the hill, followed by teams like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, and Cardinals. Prospect cards for these teams are likely to have more value than the theoretical equivalent player on the less popular teams.
Hype - Player hype can be driven by any number of factors. Team hype as described above, especially the Yankee affect. High draft pick status, with the top few picks getting the biggest benefit. Similarly, the top J2 international signees can drive the hype train as well. Viral prospect videos such as hitting tanks or throwing heaters over 100 mph can also drive hype.
MLB Proximity - As the buzz grows around a player being on the brink of his first call up, his card becomes more and more in demand. One of the bigger value bumps is when a player gets called up and is doubly so if that player has early success at the MLB level. It can be a double-edged sword if the player does not succeed, so you need to be paying close attention to a prospect’s MLB proximity and the immediate impact, positive or negative, of that debut.
The Products
Bowman - Whereas the Topps brand is the king of MLB player cards, it’s a different Topps-owned brand that is the king of Prospect player cards - Bowman. Having the MLB license is key to keeping the Topps products at the top of the value and desirability hierarchy. The three main Bowman products that everyone wants is Bowman Baseball, Bowman Chrome, and Bowman Draft. You will also find sub-products associated with some or all of these three main Bowman sets - 1st Edition, Mojo, and Sapphire.
Each of these main Bowman sets will have prospects with their first licensed card in their MLB team uniform, signified by a “1st” on the card (there are various exceptions to this rule, but not relevant to this conversation). The combination of MLB team uniform and 1st designation is what the prospecting world has collectively come to value the most. Other current Bowman sets you will find are Best, Sterling, Heritage, Platinum, Next (online exclusive similar to Topps Now), and Transcendent (new in 2020). Platinum is typically considered the least desirable of the Bowman products, with Best, Sterling, Heritage, and Next falling somewhere in the middle between Platinum and the Big 3. Transcendent is a super high-end and limited product coming out in August 2020 and will likely end up being more expensive on a card by card basis than the Big 3 simply due to the product price point, but time will tell.
Topps - While Topps focuses mostly on current and retired MLB players in the majority of their products, they do currently have two prospect-focused products - Pro Debut and Heritage Minor League. Both products have the players in their minor league team gear. Pro Debut uses the Topps flagship design while Heritage Minor League uses the regular Heritage design. It does not bring the Bowman 1st money, but it is still in the neighborhood of the lesser Bowman products and a step above the other manufacturers cards. A small note to add is that in Update Series this year, each team will be getting one prospect card.
Panini - Although Panini does not have the MLB license, they do have the MLBPA, USA Baseball, and a majority of the Colleges under license. Their prospect focused products are Contenders Draft Picks, Prizm Draft Picks (new in 2019) and Elite Extra Edition. In Contenders Draft and Prizm Draft, the college guys will be in their licensed college uniforms, while the high school and international players will be in de-identified uniforms. Elite Extra Edition will be de-identified across the board with the exception of the Dominican League players.
You will find a fair amount of American prospects, possibly some of their first cards ever from their teenage years, in Stars & Stripes USA Baseball in addition to some asian national team cards. In the MLB-based releases for Panini, you will find prospect sub-sets or just randomly scattered in Donruss Baseball, Optic Baseball, Prizm Baseball, Select Baseball, and Absolute Baseball. Values will be all over the place, but generally they will be lower than equivalent Topps/Bowman products.
Leaf - With no licensing outside of the Perfect Game brand, Leaf prospect products focus on strong checklists, mostly on card autos, and a comparatively low price point per auto. The MLB prospect brands are Metal Draft, Ultimate Draft, Flash, Valiant, and Trinity. The checklists are almost identical across these products with different marketing angles for each of the products. Perfect Game branded products currently come in two formats - National Showcase and Metal All-American.
These checklists are made up of players from various Perfect Game events which focus on prep players typically in the 14 to 18 years old range - often your first chance at getting autographed cards from future prospects along with Stars & Stripes USA Baseball. Leaf values and desirability are very much about the haves and have-nots. The top-end prospects will still carry values similar to Panini products, while the rest will often end up in the bargain bin.
Onyx - Onyx is the little kid on the block and they are taking a similar path to Leaf - small checklists with hot and under the radar prospects, all on card autographs, and a relatively cheap price point. The most recent prospect products in their portfolio are Vintage, Vintage Premium, Futera Unique, and Vintage Extended, scheduled for its first ever release in October. While their designs aren’t as garish as Leaf can be, and they often get very attractive big name prospects, their lack of brand cachet just hasn’t driven much resale interest. A great product to get the guys you want for cheaper than other products, but a tough sell all around.
Panning for Gold
Now you have a foundation for what to think about when it comes to the prospects themselves and the products you can find them in. This information will give you a starting place, but you never know what can happen in the world of prospecting.
For example Vlad Jr. and to a lesser extent Willie Calhoun were hot prospect autos to chase in 2016 Bowman Chrome. But so were the likes of Sam Travis, Eddy Julio Martinez, and Yadier Alvarez, among others. This product was generally viewed as one of the weakest prospect checklists for a Big 3 Bowman product when released.
In hindsight, two of the biggest young superstar talents in MLB had their prospect 1st autos in this product - Fernando Tatis, Jr. and Juan Soto - and not many, if any, collectors were chasing them. Like the great prospector Yukon Cornelius, if at first you don’t find gold, or even silver, you may still end up striking it rich by hitting that peppermint mine when you weren’t even looking for it.