With Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac at the Indians’ secondary site due to breaking COVID-19 protocols, heralded pitching prospect Triston McKenzie gets the nod for his major league debut Saturday night for Cleveland.
THE RANKINGS
Triston McKenzie checked in at #6 in our Indians Top 30 and #200 in our Fantasy Top 500.
BACKGROUND
McKenzie was drafted 42nd overall in 2015 and landed the highest bonus of any high school pitcher in the draft. He was seen as a highly projectable arm with his 6’5”, 165-pound frame with one of the highest upsides in the 2015 draft. His talent immediately placed him as a top arm within Cleveland’s system (still to date), but McKenzie has yet to truly showcase his potential due to consistent injury problems, which cost him all of 2019, and most of 2018. He was nonetheless added to the 40-man roster for protection from the Rule 5 draft and Saturday marks a long-awaited and anticipated debut performance from the 23-year old on the grandest stage of them all.
PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Perhaps the most debated and riskiest aspect of McKenzie’s profile, dating back to the 2015 draft, were concerns about his incredibly thin frame. Scouts have been persistent that McKenzie will add strength and fill out, thereby carrying with it the hope of velocity gains as well. However, having not pitched competitively since 2018 and battling injuries since, the size simply has not come yet and remains one of the largest concerns within McKenzie’s profile. His thin glutes and hips at this stage point to the fact that it’s likely not going to happen anymore. It will be interesting to see the development come Saturday night after one and a half years of training, rehabbing, and developing, despite a weight gain of an underwhelming five pounds since being drafted.
PITCH MIX
Fastball (50): McKenzie’s fastball sits 91-94mph, touching 95mph. For a fastball that mainly sits in the low 90s, it’s a plus pitch. His fastball has garnered outstanding comments from the Indians’ pitching staff as a tremendous pitch that significantly plays up in velo. He shows strong command of it, coming from his overhand delivery resulting in long extension, thereby garnering a high spin rate. The life, run, and plane on the pitch with extension and deception in his delivery all lead to the pitch evaluating out as plus, despite sitting low 90s. His velo has nonetheless ticked up since being drafted when he sat mostly upper 80s, but this will be a key pitch to watch as it has serious plus-plus upside if his frame does fill out and more velo is found. It’s a very deceptive delivery in which McKenzie hides the ball for an extended amount of time behind his skinny frame, nonetheless adding to hitter’s difficulties. The combination of his athletic, deceptive delivery, and pitch factors above have coaches and scouts alike raving over its potential.
Curveball (55): McKenzie’s curveball is a wipeout, overhand curve that he shows an advanced feel for. It shows good shape and depth, despite less than stellar spin rates, can be used as his out pitch and evaluates as plus. He’ll sit upper-70s with it, but the movement and command of his curve combined with his deceptive delivery is what does the trick for this pitch. As the spin rates have indicated for his curve throughout his career, he has always had a natural feel for it and its pitchability has always been advanced beyond his age, but there is still room for potential development, adding to the intrigue in McKenzie’s profile.
Changeup (45): McKenzie’s last-seen pitch arsenal included an average changeup with plus potential, but needing further refinement. The pitch will show good fading movement, particularly effective vs LHH, but nothing at the moment to garner anything above an average grade. This is where things become interesting again within McKenzie’s profile, his lack of a third pitch. There are no questions about his fastball and curveball, but his changeup needs further development to round out his current pitch mix. Monitoring the progress of this pitch (or if he has added anything new to his repertoire) will be perhaps the most crucial asset in evaluating McKenzie’s performance Saturday night, and what exactly the last 1.5 years in injuries have cost him in his pitch arsenal development.
Control/Command (55/60): McKenzie is a strike-thrower, plain and simple. He will pound the zone with his two-plus pitches that he has above-average command of, along with average to above-average control of his changeup. Overall, this is certainly a strength within McKenzie’s profile and perhaps a large factor in his promotion.
HEALTH
Well, there couldn’t be a worse category than health for the unlucky 23-year old. Despite his young age, he has already become known for battling the injury bug throughout his career and is likely one injury away from becoming a long-term durability and injury concern. Due to his size and frame, there have always been concerns about his durability leading all the way back to the 2015 draft. Unfortunately, not much has been done to prove otherwise, until he gets out there Saturday night, and hopefully remains healthy past his debut and well into 2020 and beyond.
PREDICTION
It’s not easy to predict an outcome for a pitcher that hasn’t thrown in a competitive game since June of 2018, and particularly a pitching prospect as unique as McKenzie. His talent was clearly enough to get him to the big-league level, but he’s going to require further refinement and development to become a legitimate top pitching prospect. Of the utmost priority? Developing a consistent, above-average third offering. In addition, he’s had four years to gain size, but has gained five pounds. I can only hold out hope of his frame filling out for so long and perhaps it may never happen, but the talent is still there. The deceptive, overhand delivery is still there. Two above-average pitches are still present. Saturday night will go a long way in gauging McKenzie’s development of his current pitch arsenal, and that will be the key factor in predicting what the future holds for him as a pitching prospect.
FANTASY IMPACT
There is no doubt in the tremendous upside in McKenzie’s profile and is therefore worth a stash as he comes in at #200 on our Top 500 Fantasy Dynasty rankings. We don’t recommend starting him on Saturday unless you’re in a H2H league and your ratios are shot.
McKenzie currently looks like a future SP4, but it is all dependent upon the development of his pitch arsenal. Without a solid third offering, there is then doubt he’ll even make a future rotation, and his profile is not one designed for bullpen success. Therefore, the development of his current pitch arsenal could not be more of a key insight into getting the early edge and stashing a potential near top of the rotation starter with tremendous upside.