The Cardinals are finally able to resume play after a Covid-19 outbreak forced 11 players and several members of the coaching staff away from the team. They’ll do so by reaching down to their alternate site and bringing up eight players to make their big league debuts. The most highly touted of the list is their 2016 first-round pick, Dylan Carlson. Carlson is the highest-profile position player to make his debut for the Cardinals since the late Oscar Taveras. He won the Texas League MVP in 2019, raked in Memphis after his promotion, and followed that up with a strong .313/.450/.469 line in the first version of spring training. He looked like their most complete outfielder in camp and now he will get that opportunity this week as the Cardinals are scheduled to play eight games over the next five days. This is an exciting prospect with a high floor due to his pitch recognition and ability to keep hands inside the baseball. He hit 26 homers between Springfield and Memphis last season while also swiping 20 bags and hitting over .300. We saw some signs of this in 2018 but a strong offseason really brought it out in 2019.
THE RANKINGS
Carlson ranks first on our Cardinals top 30 list and 11th on our Fantasy Top 500 list.
THE TOOLS
Hit (55 present/60 future): A switch hitter with identical swings from both sides of the plate, Carlson now stands taller at the plate and has a thigh-high leg kick as he coils and drives toward the baseball. He covers the plate very well while displaying patience. He’s always posted strong walk rates and has added power to his game while making more consistent contact. He’s significantly improved as a left-handed hitter (against right-handed pitchers) and has tightened up the swing and becoming more direct to the ball. The Cardinals have pushed him aggressively through the system since entering pro ball, and you wouldn’t know it but he’s consistently been amongst the youngest players in his league.
Power (55 game/60 raw): Carlson gets the most out of his frame. Standing six-foot-three, and just over 200 pounds he uses his natural strength to drive the ball, and the extra 10-15 pounds of muscle could’ve been the difference-maker. He already had plus bat speed and a selective approach. The new mechanical adjustments mentioned above surely help him out here too. There are some concerns about the power ceiling because his exit velocity numbers are only average, but I think those are overblown considering he’s only 21 years old. The frame is pretty big already but there’s some room to add some bulk still.
Defense (55 field/50 throw): It’s fairly obvious but his defensive grade really depends on what position in the outfield he’s playing. He’s a plus defender in left, above-average in right (dinged some for the only average arm) and average in center. The Cardinals have indicated that he’s going to play all three outfield spots for them, and while I think he will primarily play left he does provide the benefit of sliding over to center to provide more offense while not being a negative defensively. He takes strong routes and has an accurate arm.
Speed (55 present/50 future): Not only is Carlson an above-average runner, he’s a great baserunner with elite instincts that allows his speed to play up on the basepaths. He can help in the stolen base department and the Cardinals run more often since Mike Shildt took over, and I expect him to chip in with a few stolen bases.
Conclusion: Carlson should play nearly every day for the Cardinals and is their best all-around outfielder. There isn’t a real weakness to his game, but at the moment the only plus skill is the plate approach. That will change because I do think the hit and power tools can both become plus with more seasoning, but he’s still just 21 years old. He’s slated to make his debut this afternoon and will hit in the six spot. It’s hard to guess what the lineup will look like around him, but this is a Cardinals team that has had their outfielders hitting out of the seven, eight and nine spots in four of their five games this year, so they could use a boost offensively. There are enough skills here that Carlson could force his way into the top half of the lineup. He needs to be rostered in all 12+ team leagues.
Eddy’s Fantasy Take: One of the top fantasy prospects in the game, Carlson should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues and above. You see how Carlson is average or a bit better in just about every offensive skill and that’s going to translate to your fantasy teams. At the same time I don’t think he’s going to be a world beater, but a chance at maybe 8 HR and 5 SB ROS? Sure that’s possible.