*Morpheus voice from “The Matrix”* What if I told you that come this postseason, the Phillies might have the nastiest trio of right-handed starters in baseball?
Wednesday, staff ace Aaron Nola struck out 13 Yankees a few hours after Zack Wheeler got his second win in what I’ve predicted will be a breakout season. On Sunday, August 9, 24-year-old Spencer Howard will make his MLB debut, forming a pitching hydra of power righties who throw nasty changeups and breaking balls. (To be sure, the best trio of righties in MLB right now is Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, and Trevor Bauer, who have been dominant for Cincinnati).
Someone who only threw in the mid-80s coming out of high school, Howard took his fastball into the mid-90s at Cal Poly and was drafted #45 overall by the Phils in 2017. With a 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame, clean mechanics, and four potential plus pitches, the California kid is a future #2 starter and a dark horse candidate for this year’s NL ROY. As Bryce Harper said this spring: “Spencer Howard’s got some of the nastiest stuff I’ve ever seen.”
2019 Stats (19 starts between High-A, Double-A, & Arizona Fall League + 2 in Rookie-Ball)
92.1 innings, 121 K’s, 26 BB, 4 HR, 2.05 ERA, .86 WHIP
The Rankings
We declared Howard the #1 Phillies prospect this winter, the #24 overall prospect in baseball, and the #28 overall prospect for fantasy baseball.
The Tools
Fastball (55 Present/60 Future)
Howard touched 99 mph in the AFL this October and maintains 94-95 deep into games. He whiffs hitters upstairs with rising action and gets arm-side run when he targets the corners, though not as much as generated by fireballing prospects like Dustin May or Brusdar Graterol. His fastball command is above average: he’ll spot it low and away to lefties first pitch or behind 2-0, and he knows when to stop nibbling and just overpower someone in the zone. This led to an elite 113 K’s to 24 BB over 87 innings between High-A, Double-A, and the AFL in 2019.
Changeup (55 Present/65 Future)
If you’re a left-handed batter coming up to face Howard, your biggest concern is that any pitch on the outer half could be 98 mph running away from you or 85 mph running even more while dropping down below your knees. He doesn’t “give away” anything in his mechanics when throwing the changeup, leading to whiffs and weak grounders. Whereas he’ll lose feel for the curveball or go a while without throwing a slider, Howard can go to the change any time, confident he’ll hit the arm-side corner of the plate. As with the fastball, it’s above average command. Howard will triple and even quadruple up to lefties—watching him throw nothing but changeups away in a 4-pitch K of Kellin Degland (August 16th at Double-A), I thought of how Jacob deGrom doesn’t bother throwing anything else when a hitter can’t time his change.
Slider (55 Present/60 Future)
Howard’s slider was “only” a 50 for much of 2019, but by October it became his go-to against righties, an above average pitch with 2-plane movement. When he came up to Double-A Reading in July, too often he’d be ahead of a righty 1-2, opt for back-to-back curveballs, then have to go to a 3-2 fastball—missing his chance to unleash the slide piece. In the AFL 2 months later, he locked in on the outside part of the plate as his starting point so the slider would end up touching the line of the left-handed batter’s box. This summer camp, Howard showed that he can dismantle even Big Leaguers like Scott Kingery with it.
Curveball (55 Present/60 Future)
A 12/6 that comes upward out of Howard’s hand before tumbling into the zone, he routinely starts it at the hitter’s head to snag called strikes belt-high. With the advancement of data-driven pitch sequencing (spearheaded by Houston), we’ve learned that high-velocity four-seamers upstairs “tunnel” optimally with curveballs that have big vertical movement. Howard unlocks a treasure chest of good outcomes with this pairing: on top of called strikes with the breaker, hitters chase the fastball above the zone, and when he starts the curve at the belt, he gets swings even bouncing it off home plate. The movement is already plus; to make the pitch a true 60 grade, he needs to lock in on that shin-high area so that he can go to this pitch in any count.
Command (50 Present/55 Future)
Howard drives through strong legs to explode directly towards home, staying balanced while generating great arm speed. He raises his glove above his head to create some deception, but this is a classic, smooth delivery, one he repeats well. With above average fastball and changeup command, honing his feel for the curveball and slider will take Howard’s overall command grade up to that 55 mark.
Bottom Line: 60 Future Value
Having dominated the upper levels of the minors last year, the future #2 starter is ready for the rotation right now, and could turn an inconsistent Phillies rotation into a formidable one come October. The safe bet is that Howard will post an ERA in the low-to-mid 4’s, but don’t be surprised if it’s a 3.50 as he averages 5 or so innings per start. This is the arm Phillies fans have been waiting for.
Follow Jacob on Twitter @TheReelJZ
(Photo credit: Yong Kim/Philadelphia Inquirer)