This is a series where we look at the six divisions and break down each team using four superlatives. Each writer was allowed to interpret the first three superlatives however they wanted. Big thanks to Jason Kamlowsky for his Nationals contribution.
Miami Marlins
Their Strength: Starting Pitching
The Marlins are stacked at pitching and outfield in the minors level, but when paired with what’s already at the majors, pitching takes the cake. Caleb Smith, Pablo Lopez and Sandy Alcantara all possess an exciting facet, whether it be a strong pitch or supposed health, that can lead each to a solid campaign. And while Jose Ureña and Jordan Yamamoto are backend guys, it’s still unquestionable depth. Now add in Sixto Sanchez (would’ve started in AAA), Nick Neidert (spent 2019 in AAA), Edward Cabrera (tore through A+ and AA and some prefer him to Sixto), and Jorge Guzman (would’ve started in AAA), and you’ve got some legitimate rotation candidates to fill in at the first sign of emergency and never let the rotation be a weak point.
Their Weakness: The Bullpen
Last year, not only was the bullpen last in WAR, it was the only major league pen to return negative value, and at a whopping -2.2 WAR. In fact, of the eight relievers who turned in a positive or zero WAR in 2019, none is on the team anymore. Historically this franchise has been good at capturing lightning in a bottle in the bullpen, but this year calls for a big ass bottle.
Their Secret Weapon: James Rowson
Call me an optimistic fool, but the new Marlins hitting coordinator still hasn’t gotten a proper chance to showcase what he’s been infusing into this team since the Fish lured him from Minnesota nine months ago. One of the main contributors of the Twins’ offensive output when he was their hitting coach, Rowson has a raw but talented group to mold with Isan Diaz, Jorge Alfaro and Lewis Brinson at the major league level and Monte Harrison, Jesus Sanchez, Lewin Diaz, Jazz Chisholm and more at the minor league level. As a Marlins fan, I’m hoping he’s got the secret sauce that’s going to unlock the potential.
The Possible Out of Nowhere Guy: Edward Cabrera
I was really tempted to go Monte Harrison here, but given how much attention he’s drawing at BP these days it felt a tad bit too obvious. It’s ironic though because in the offseason Cabrera was all the rage. I can see a pretty easy path for Harrison contributions, but Cabrera would need a bit more squinting. The Marlins, even with a new regime, are still an aggressive organization with pitching promotions. Last year they promoted Jordan Yamamoto with only 82.1 Double-A innings under his belt. Cabrera torched High-A and Double-A last year and though he’d still need about 50 innings to reach Yamamoto’s benchmark of Double-A innings, the Marlins are in a position to see exactly what the future stars of this team can contribute. I’m a strong believer we would have seen Cabrera in midseason in a regular year, and I’m still thinking that even with service time considerations and a lack of upper minors experience he’d be an impact guy.
Washington Nationals
Their Strength: Starting Pitching
The Nationals rotation will once again be one of the best in baseball after finishing in the top-three in the league in FIP, strikeouts, and ERA last year. Washington will have the best trio of starters in the National League, and possibly, all of baseball. Perennial Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer will anchor the rotation, and Washington can roll out Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin right behind him, which seems almost unfair in a shortened season. Strasburg should benefit from the decreased workload, and with the schedule being soft early in the season, they should be able to ease him into the swing of things. Patrick Corbin would be a legitimate number one on some teams. He was especially valuable during the World Series run, appearing in eight games and racking up a 13.9 strikeouts per nine. Anibal Sanchez is a capable fourth starter, who also had a tremendous postseason, tossing 7.2 innings of no-hit baseball against St. Louis in the NLCS. The fifth starter will come down to a battle between Austin Voth and Eric Fedde. Though both will likely see time in the rotation at some point in the season.
Their Weakness: Winning The 2019 World Series
There have been just 15 franchises to repeat as World Series Champions. The 2000 Yankees were the last team to do it (they were a three-peat champion), so history isn’t on the Nationals side. Their pitching staff will keep them in the hunt, and the lineup is sneaky deep. But they play in an improving division, and the schedule will do them no favors, as they will match up with the AL East for 20 games. If they start out the way they did last year, they will be socially distancing themselves from the playoffs this season.
Their Secret Weapon: Two-Strike Approach
In an era that is being increasingly defined by an all-or-nothing approach for hitters, the Nationals have transformed themselves into a contact-first team. A big reason the Nationals won the World Series was their collective .297 batting average with two outs and runners in scoring position. While some of that can be attributed to good fortune, Washington’s point of emphasis as an organization, is putting the ball in play with two strikes. They had the second-fewest strikeouts of any team in the National League, and their .811 two-out OPS was tops overall. They effectively replaced notoriously free-swinging Bryce Harper with hitters who have a more advanced approach and the results speak for themselves.
Possible Out of Nowhere Guy: Luis Garcia
Carter Kieboom is the Nationals top prospect, and he is ticketed to be on the Opening Day roster at third base. But Luis Garcia might be the prospect who makes the biggest impact in 2020. Prior to the shutdown, Garcia was hitting .316 in the Grapefruit League, making the organization take notice that he can hold his own against big league pitching. An injury, or a slump for Kieboom could mean a promotion for Garcia, who is just 19. The Nationals have been aggressive with other young prospects (Juan Soto, Victor Robles) so don’t be surprised if the teenage Garcia makes a splash later this summer.
Atlanta Braves
Their Strength: Starting Pitching
Geez, another starting pitching strength in the NL East? What else was I going to choose with the Braves, though? They got great depth. Atlanta has a bonafide 1-5 that if all exceed their projections by about 20 percent then this becomes a legitimate division challenger. If Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Mike Foltynewicz, Cole Hamels and Kyle Wright isn’t enough, then there’s Touki Toussaint, Tucker Davidson (more on him below), and Ian Anderson waiting in the wings.
Their Weakness: No Ace
Shout to our own Kris Dunn for this call out on Twitter. Is it paradoxical to name their strength the rotation but a weakness a lack of an ace? I don’t think so. To write that they have no ace, is to essentially call Soroka out. He’s a very good mid-rotation piece, with strong command and a good ground ball rate. He seems destined to put up ERA numbers below his FIP/xFIP. Always making us wonder when the other shoe will fall. But a lack of strikeouts, and a fastball that averages of 92.5 mph makes his margins pretty thin. If he turns out to be Kyle Hendricks, do we consider that an ace? I don’t. The Nationals have Scherzer, the Phillies have Aaron Nola (I think?) and the Mets have Jacob deGrom.
Their Secret Weapon: Org Bullpen Depth
Tip of the cap to another PLive staffer Ben Chase for this one. With a deep stable of bullpen arms in the majors and minors, maybe it’s OK that the rotation lacks a true ace. Will Smith, who should eventually report healthy from his coronavirus battle, will head the pen. Luke Jackson, Chris Martin, Shane Greene and even Darren O’Day can approach the 30 K% mark. Given the amount of arms in the minors, the Braves have the option of breaking in several through their pen. Patrick Weigel, Toussaint, Huascar Ynoa, and maybe even some like Kyle Muller. Then the true relievers like Thomas Burrows and Philip Pfeifer provide more ammo. One of those names will pop and cement himself as a lights out reliever.
The Possible Out of Nowhere Guy: Tucker Davidson
Cracking the Atlanta rotation is a tough feat. The Braves seemingly have an army of arms to take over when someone falters or gets injured. So why is LHP Tucker Davidson the one to make the jump? For one, remember that the depth got a little bit thinner once Felix Hernandez opted out of the season. That ensured a rotation spot for Kyle Wright. But Wright’s brief debut in the majors was catastrophic, as he failed to find the zone or elicit whiffs. He never quite nailed the wonky Triple-A environment either (4.17 ERA, 4.32 FIP in 112.1 IP), at least not to the extent we expect out of a former fifth overall draft pick. Enter Tucker Davidson who made Twitter headlines in January after a Driveline clip of him hitting 100 mph emerged. Led by an above-average fastball (leaning toward plus now with the new velo) and curveball, Davidson has a shot at four average or better pitches. He’s also crossed the 100-inning mark three straight years. All told, this might be the first arm Atlanta turns to sooner rather than later.
New York Mets
Their Strength: Deep Lineup
For the longest time, pitching was where the Mets shined, but now the scales have tipped to the bats. If health is guaranteed, the Mets lineup will have the likes of Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, Yoenis Cespedes, Robinson Cano, Amed Rosario, JD Davis, Brandon Nimmo and even Wilson Ramos. That’s a beautiful combination of OBP, speed, average and power and it’s a lineup that doesn’t suffer from a talent drop. Pitchers beware.
Their Weakness: Schedule
This is a cheap selection for their weakness, as it applies to every team in this post. But the Mets play 43 of 60 games against teams that were .500 or above last year. The Marlins, Orioles and Blue Jays are the sub .500 ones, but even then Toronto and Miami aren’t easy “Ws” in the calendar. Consider this a testament to a team that has no truly, glaring weakness. The offense is strong, the bullpen, despite a down 2019, has an easy path to be elite and the rotation has solid depth. You can make a case that management is the true weakness, but for the sake of a 60-game season, it shouldn’t make a difference.
Their Secret Weapon: Luis Rojas
Like many things that happened before March, the hiring of Luis Rojas seemed like years ago. But the hire of the new Mets manager was widely lauded. A long time baseball lifer, Rojas has managed several of the team’s core players when they were in the minors. Has a strong grasp of analytics, is liked by players, is bilingual, and generally has his thumb on the pulse. A manager’s impact on a 162-game season is fairly negligible, and it’ll be even less so now, but he’s going to act as a big plus for the New York clubhouse.
The Possible Out of Nowhere Guy: Andres Gimenez
Full disclosure, I wrote up a whole blurb about Stephen Gonsalves here and I couldn’t bring myself to keep it. An 89 mph fastball isn’t getting you anywhere these days. So onto Gimenez, who’s sprung into this spot after questions surrounding Robinson Cano’s availability at camp. Cano isn’t at camp, though the team expects him there, they’re just uncertain about the timeline. That’s not to not say Gimenez is going to be thrust into a starting spot any time soon. But he was slated to start 2020 in Triple-A, and can play up on defense at second base. Not to mention he showed up to spring more bulked up than expected, so maaaaaaybe there’s a little more in the bat than anticipated.
Philadelphia Phillies
Their Strength: Power
It’s conceivable that six of the Phillies starters can reach the 10 HR benchmark this year (think of this as the new 25-30 HR mark). Andrew McCutchen, Didi Gregorius, JT Realmuto, Jay Bruce, Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins all have the pop necessary to make games get out of control, and four of those names have strong OBP to boost them higher. Citizens Bank Park had the third highest HR Park Factor in the NL last year, according to ESPN. And the squad is primed to take advantage of it.
Their Weakness: Rotation Depth
You have Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, then Jake Arrieta and uh, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin? Those last three combined for an ERA of about 4.65 last season. A lot of that had to do with inflated HR/9, and a fair argument is that perhaps the ball is different (again) this year and it helps them there. But this team is not built to withstand another down season from Nola and is depending on Wheeler to marginally improve from last year’s numbers. They have an ace in the hole (read just an inch below), but even then they’re on thin ice.
Their Secret Weapon: 1-2 punch of Spencer Howard and Alec Bohm
Fine, these two are definitely not a secret. But that the Phillies have two of baseball’s best prospects waiting in the wings to contribute in 2020 is a reason to not hand the division to Washington, Atlanta or New York. Howard helps address their rotation weakness I mentioned above, and could be good enough to immediately be the team’s second best starter. Alec Bohm, someone I’m extremely high on, has the rare combination of average and power to succeed from the get go. These two figure to be part of the Phillies next great core and we’ll see what they’re made of later this year.
The Possible Out of Nowhere Guy: Kyle Garlick
There are stretches and then there’s the “Kyle Garlick will contribute in a meaningful way” stretch. The Phillies acquired Garlick from the Dodgers in February in a small trade deal. Garlick, a 28-year-old outfielder, with two seasons of Triple-A under his belt, is a pretty generic power hitting outfielder with barely average walk rates and below average strikeout rates. He debuted last year and slashed .251/.321/.521 in 51 PA. Bryce Harper and Andrew McCutchen are going nowhere. So the things that need to happen for Garlick to luck into playing time are Jay Bruce needs to struggle at DH, Adam Haseley needs to struggle in centerfield, so someone like Josh Harrison or Nick Williams could tend to that position, and then Garlick can get his shot at DH or maybe a corner. It’s a lot of ifs. But Garlick doesn’t have the excuse of “more seasoning” for the Phils to lean on, and he’s shown a modicum of success at the big league level.