This offseason, three notable domestic players in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league have been posted by their respective teams; Haruki Nishikawa and Kohei Arihara from the Pacific League Nippon-Ham Fighters, and Tomoyuki Sugano from the Central League stalwart Yomiuri Giants.
Since I didn’t get the chance to watch them on a regular basis in 2020, I decided to ask some questions to our resident NPB expert, Tom Mussa, in order to have a more informed understanding of what they may bring to an MLB team in 2021. Tom puts a lot of hours to capture NPB highlights while most of America is sleeping, so it’s a real treat to be able to get his insight on each of these players. All questions are asked by me. Enjoy!
Haruki Nishikawa, LHB, CF, Nippon-Ham Fighters
Will Hoefer: Nishikawa is definitely a fast guy capable of making some spectacular plays in the outfield. But defensive metrics have soured considerably on him in center field the last two seasons. Where do you think his defensive home is in the major leagues?
Tom: Nishikawa is an interesting guy, although he hasn’t necessarily played the best CF his speed covers up for some of the fielding mistakes as he recently won his fourth straight golden glove the other day. He definitely had some recently not great defensive statistical years but typically its average and has been better in the past. Now, in terms of MLB future I think he would mainly have a 4th Outfielder type of role playing wherever is needed for the team defensively on a contender. It won't be outstanding in centerfield but he should be able to handle it at the MLB level.
How concerned are you with Nishikawa’s lack of power as a pro in the NPB? Does his uber-patient approach get him on base enough that it’s irrelevant how much power he generates at the MLB level?
It is definitely a concern considering just how much of the league is so power-focused, a guy with the typical contact style of offense oftenly has to hit so much better than a slugger just to make up for the lost amount of power. However, I think there is a role to be carved out for him on a team, where he can get on-base enough and allow for his very good speed on the basepaths to do extra damage. Yes his bat will not produce much for power but Nishikawa is not a slap-hitter. Nishikawa has good hand and bat speed to be able to turn on fastballs on the inside of the plate with great bat-to-ball skills producing a 39.2 hard hit percentage this season.
Do you think Nishikawa gets an MLB offer during his posting period? If so, how much money do you think it would need to be worth to pry him away from returning to the Fighters for 2021?
Tom: I think that just the speed alone could be enough value to a contending team and the high OBP rate could maybe entice other teams as well. With that being said, I think he definitely has a shot to get an offer from a MLB club and I don't believe it’ll cost much for a team to give him that shot if interested. He’s expressed his desire to play in the MLB for around a year plus now so it feels more likely than not that he would accept that offer. However, most teams may not want to take the chance of a player that doesn’t offer guaranteed great defense and not much in-game power.
Kohei Arihara, RHSP, Nippon-Ham Fighters
I’m really interested to see how the market unfolds for Arihara. His performance in 2020 was down, but his fastball velocity was up. How do you think his value has changed for MLB teams over the last calendar year?
Tom: I think this year wasn’t a huge difference maker considering that yes, his numbers did return to being closer to his normal levels but there something that changed in his pitching at the start of 2019 that led to the outstanding year that he had. Obviously, if he had another great year then his interest from MLB teams would be higher, but I don’t think 2020 killed his chances. It has decreased his value a bit but a solid 2020 after a clear outlier of a 2019 is still good enough to spark interest in MLB teams.
I think a natural comp for Arihara in terms of his arsenal is Yu Darvish, if only because Arihara also throws literally every pitch imaginable in a given start. Who do you think Arihara comps well to at the MLB level, and do you think his kitchen sink approach will be altered at all by a major league team?
Tom: I agree that a Darvish comp is fair based on pitch usage and amount of pitch that he can throw but obviously not quality wise. I think he will probably end up landing in a backend of the rotation role and could end up middle rotation if he has a good year. It is interesting to think about what a major league team will do with his approach because for guys like Darvish, it works for him to throw as many pitches because they’re all quality offerings. However, with Arihara he only really has a couple of plus/near-plus pitches. I could see a team tweaking his style and pitch selection, thus optimizing his usage.
A big thing for his success in 2019 was him finding what combinations worked best and what pitches to use less and throw more. A smart team can get him into the system, optimize his best pitches and figure out the best way for him to succeed at the MLB level. Arihara used to be a very pitch-to-contact focused prior to 2019, where he was able to master his mix and get much more swinging strikes.
A few things I noticed with Arihara during my looks at him in 2019 were how well he mixed speeds with fastball early on in games, and how he could stand to locate his slider below the zone to differentiate the pitch from his cutter--which also would generate more whiffs. What did you notice this season about Arihara’s strengths and weaknesses as a starter?
Tom: Arihara’s biggest strengths are by far his circle-change and splitter. These two pitches are his go-to out pitches. Both are quality pitches with his split being my favorite of the two. When Arihara has both of these working to his favor, he cruises through batters. Arihara uses the splitter away to right-handed hitters and has two different forms to it. The first is a typical splitter that drops hard off of the table. Sometimes the pitch is harder into the dirt. Meanwhile sometimes it has limited spin to it and more so fall off a table type of movement. The second way the pitch moves is with a bit of a sliding action added on to the pitch at release point and adds just a bit of cutting movement. The change is also good pitch as it follows a typical circle-change movement and is used away from left-handed hitters. This all in addition to the good slider as you had mentioned. The success of these three pitches are crucial for his overall success. Some weaknesses of his arsenal are the fastballs. Both the four-seam and two-seam that he throws aren’t that great already to begin with in NPB, with the pitches at their best being league average in NPB. He works in the four-seam the most out of all pitches near 30% but the two-seam is more expectable as he has frequently used the two-seam as the pitch to work the changeup off against left-handed hitters. At times the pitch doesn’t get much movement at all and is hittable for a good batter at the plate. As well as the fastballs had been a big causation for his struggling prior to 2019. The less and less he throws these pitches the better his overall performances have become.
Tomoyuki Sugano, RHSP, Yomiuri Giants
My biggest question about Sugano this year was health. His fastball velocity diminished with every successive look I got of him in 2019, and it was the primary factor in my projection of him as a #4 starter with a low ceiling. Given the performance and data we have on Sugano in 2020, is it safe to say that he’s regained most, if not all, of his 2017-18 Sawamura Award form?
Tom: Sugano had a fairly injury free 2020 and really only had one instance with soreness that showed any drops in performance and for the most part of the season he did pitch at his usual ability and was healthy throughout most of the year.
In spite of my concerns about the fastball, I did have good grades on Sugano’s curve and split, and his slider was a consistent plus pitch. How did you think Sugano’s secondaries played during the 2020 season? What sort of pitch mix would you encourage Sugano to throw in order to be effective against MLB hitters?
Tom: Although he may not have a blazing fastball and he may be on the wrong side of 30, Sugano has the secondaries to make him live up to the billings at the MLB level. Already with what was one of NPBs best rated sliders, Sugano capitalizes on his plus command with a plus slider/cutter and a good splitter with a curve that isn’t all too bad as well. For Sugano, he should probably stick with his current pitch mix he has currently. I think that his little reliance on his fastballs at 34.3% last year for the four-seam fastball and only 10% for his two seam are good enough to allow for him to blend in and tunnel with his great slider at 27% of the time. Meanwhile he understands how to keep hitters off balance and when to mix in a splitter or the curve to his best benefit. Only downside is when throwing so many breaking balls and his fastball being thrown to the outer edges of the plate, Sugano becomes susceptible to HRs. The times throughout the season when teams did their most damage to him, they capitalized on pitches that were left hanging and were driven into the seats.
This is the second year in a row that a contracted player has been posted by the Yomiuri Giants (Shun Yamaguchi was posted, then signed by the Blue Jays in 2019). Given the Giants’ reputation for never posting players, do you think this is indicative of a sea change for how Yomiuri operates with its top players? Or, is it just a case of shrewd negotiating by Yamaguchi and Sugano?
Tom: The general consensus has been that this has been in the works for a while now similar to the Yamaguchi deal. Seemingly due to the family ties with the Giants and the fact that Sugano sacrificed a year of his career to choose to not sign with the Fighters in the 2011 Draft just so that he can sign with the Giants the following year. That’s a fun story if you haven’t heard that one before. The beauty of NPB contracts is that pretty much all of it besides salary is completely private. Allowing for offers with bonuses, contract clauses and others are wide open and available for players to take full advantage of. Much more player-friendly compared to the rough and often brutal MLB. Unless we get another leak like the Yamaguchi deal from a member of the front office, there will not be a confirmed reasoning but I would tend to lean on a clause more than turning tides for how the Giants operate.
Sugano’s suitors right now are rumored to be the big market Boston Red Sox and the not afraid to spend San Diego Padres. Do you think Sugano’s going to be priced out for teams not willing to pay Sugano like he’s a top 10 free agent starter? (Note: The Padres’ acquisitions of Yu Darvish and Blake Snell likely pull them out of the bidding)
Tom: It is possible that if the right large market team gets in the race, that Sugano will be priced out from other teams. With recent news of the money burning Mets being in the races for Sugano it would not surprise me if that would become the case. I do believe that he is worth such a contract however, it will be interesting to see where and for how much he ends up getting. Considering the age (31) and no prior MLB experience, it could scare away teams if the bidding gets high. But his long and great record in Japan may be enough proof to contradict those red flags and keep some smaller market teams in the hunt.