Dom Smith
Dom Smith has done a complete 180 in the eyes of Mets fans since his tenure began. Throughout his first few years in professional baseball, Dom struggled with his weight and some unnamed scouts attacked his work ethic. Well in 2019, Dom Smith showed up 40 pounds lighter and performed every time his number was called. Yet, with the emergence of Pete Alonso and the Mets crowded outfield, there was no spot in the starting lineup for Dom in 2020. In these times when Smith was waiting his turn, he was the first one on the top step of the dugout cheering on his teammates with a smile, the same teammates that had the job that he wanted. Smith kept his professionalism and good spirits all throughout his time as a role player.
Yoenis Cespedes opting out of the 2020 season was a blessing in disguise for the ball club in Queens. This gave Mets fans the chance to root on their new favorite player every game .
In 199 plate appearances, Smith blasted 10 long balls and drove in 42 runs. Extrapolated over 162 games, Dom would have been on pace for over 30 home runs and 130 RBI.
In addition to his career highs in batting average, OBP, SLG, and OPS, Dom also led the charge for the Mets as their “StatCast hero”. Here is a look at what Dom did this season at the plate:
He hit seemingly every ball hard to all fields.
Now you may be wondering about Smith’s .368 BABIP and if that is a concern to me. The answer is no. Throughout his minor league career, Smith sustained a high BABIP. In addition to hitting the ball hard, Smith was in the top 15 in “Launch Angle Tightness”, a metric to measure the frequency with which a hitter connects at the ideal launch angle.
Another noticeable improvement for Dom has been his increased line drive rate - presumably a direct correlation with his launch angle tightness. All of these metrics point to the BABIP being sustainable carrying into the 2021 season.
Now how about this? Some may worry that as a left-handed bat, Smith will be a platoon option for the Mets next season. Well, that will not be the case. Throughout his brief career, Dom has hit left handers noticeably well. In his 2019 season, he posted a .303 average against lefties and in 2020, a formidable .283.
Dom Smith’s breakout was legit and I am here for it. The 25-year-old left-handed slugger is primed for a stellar campaign in 2021. This was no fluke for the young man.
Randy Arozarena
The end of this story is yet to be written. Seemingly out of nowhere Randy Arozarena became a folk hero in Tampa Bay almost single handedly propelling the Rays into the World Series. Unfortunately, this is one of the more difficult breakouts to analyze.
Arozarena was sidelined until August after testing positive for the coronavirus in Training Camp. But, in his 50 regular season plate appearances, Arozarena was nothing short of spectacular. Even with the ridiculous .442 batting average and .907 slugging percentage (yes, a slugging percentage of .902), it was impossible to predict that the young man from Cuba would have the type of postseason that he is having. Seemingly every night the 25 year old is in the thick of things on baseball’s biggest stage.
While quarantining after his positive test, Arozarena committed to staying healthy and putting on muscle for the season. He did exactly that. After eating chicken and rice for every meal and doing 500 push ups a day, the new Tampa Bay Ray showed up looking like a superhero action figure, and performing like a superhero, as well. But how legitimate was this breakout?
To me, about as legitimate as it gets. There is barely any StatCast data on the youngster as he is still green. But going off the simplicity of his swing, it is an easy, repeatable motion. His front hip stays closed and his toe is pointed towards the first base dugout when he strides. Then he lands softly on that front side and whips his hips through the zone. That coil allows him to generate extreme amounts of torque and force with his lower half. His front leg is stiff and he drives his back knee into his front leg. His ability to stay closed also allows him to reach the outside pitch and generate power to center and right field, as well. While he may not continue to hit nearly .500, Arozarena can be a guy that hits .300 with 25-30 home runs in a full season.
Throughout the minor leagues, Arozarena has always shown his ability to drive the ball from foul pole to foul pole. Again, while a small sample size, this year with Tampa Bay, the 25 year old still went opposite field on nearly a third of all his balls put in play.
Still a raw, free-swinging 25 year old, Arozarena does have the tendency to chase pitches out of the zone and in turn, strike out more than managers would like. But, Arozarena has the best coaching staff in the world around him. He is a big ball of clay and the Tampa Bay Rays are the perfect sculptures to craft him into a super star.
Luke Voit
A name on this list that Cardinals are dreading to see after reading a whole page of praise for Randy Arozarena, who they sent away this offseason for pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore.
But, how can you leave someone who’s going to get AL MVP votes off this list?
Luke Voit was tremendous this season, building off of his solid 2019 campaign. Since coming over to New York from St. Louis, Voit has turned himself into one of the best first basemen in baseball. The monstrous right-hander from Missouri blasted baseballs into oblivion this season. With all the uncertainty around baseball this year, one thing was constant: Voit mashing baseballs. The 29 year old belted 22 home runs in only 56 games in pinstripes in the coronavirus shortened season firmly supplanting himself in the heat of the MVP voting.
Looking at Voit’s metrics, one aspect of his game that stands out is his ability to elevate the baseball more consistently. From 2017 in his fist professional season with the Cardinals, Voit has been able to raise his fly ball rate from 33.7% to nearly 40%. When taking postseason into account as well, Voit elevated the ball at a near 45% clip. He has also cut his groundball rate from 48.2% in 2017 to 33.3% in 2020. Granted, both small sample sizes, but it shows the conscious effort Voit has been making to hit the ball in the air or on a line.
What is really terrifying for the AL East and the rest of baseball is that the 29 year old still managed to hit .277 this season with a BABIP well below the league average of .300 at .268. Taking into account his xStats from Baseball Savant, there is plenty of reason to believe that this is just the beginning of Luke Voit’s coming out party. The slugging first baseman barreled the baseball in the 86th percentile and hit it hard more often than half the league.
Voit’s xSLG proves that this season was no fluke. His xSLG of .595 was top 4% of baseball and his xwOBA and xwOBAcon were top 9% of baseball.
If Voit can reign in his swing and lay off the waste pitches to stay ahead in the count, there is no telling how many baseballs Voit can send into orbit in a full season. I am going to go ahead and give this season the stamp of approval. The metrics back up the MVP performance of 2020, and there are few flaws in the big man’s game.