Finally — and perhaps a year later than we expected — Nick Senzel is making his major league debut with the Reds. The elite prospect is batting second in the lineup and the hope is this is day one of his becoming a fixture in Cincinnati. Injuries have dogged him for the last year, to the point where I think some have forgotten just how good he can be.
The Rankings
The former second overall pick is a universal top 10 prospect. He clocked in at #9 in our Top 100, #7 in our Fantasy Top 100, and of course, #1 in the Reds Top 30.
The Tools
Defense (50 field/55 throw): In his debut, the Reds slotted Senzel in centerfield and that’s where he’ll likely remain for the majority of his starts. Jose Iglesias has the better glove at short, Eugenio Suarez is entrenched at third base, Senzel’s natural position, and there might be an opening here and there at second base, but Scooter Gennett will eventually return. Senzel isn’t going to be winning gold gloves for his defense in center, and expect some hiccups on reads. He should be better than what Scott Schebler was doing there, but admittedly not by much.
Hit (55 present/70 future): This is the moneymaker for the 23-year-old. Before Vlad Jr. took the world by storm, Senzel had the title of the minor league’s best hit tool. It’s a swing with great bat speed that’s short to the ball with the ability to turn on inside pitches. While his current season numbers don’t reflect it, Senzel’s long had a plan of attack every time he goes up to the plate. He’s simultaneously patient and aggressive, waiting for his pitch but not afraid to spit on borderline ones. He has an all-fields approach that makes it difficult to shift on him as well. With a walk rate that should hover 9-10% and a strikeout rate a touch below 20 percent, he should be a difficult out. Just look at the beautiful spray chart in his career.
Power (50 game/55 raw): Remember that power plays up when the hit tool is great. I expect Senzel to easily cross into 20 home run territory with plenty of doubles from the get go, with a chance at 30 in his peak seasons if the current run environment remains the same. He’s a doubles machine as well. Great American Ballpark is the fourth best NL park in runs factor according to ESPN, so the good times should come soon thanks to his ability to barrel the ball.
Speed (55 present/50 future): While his speed isn’t going to do him any favors in centerfield, Senzel does enough to make himself an asset on the basepaths thanks to strong instincts. He should challenge for 15 over the course of a season. It’s worth noting the Reds have just eight steals on the season (with 10 CS), so there’s a chance he doesn’t have the green light a ton, especially hitting second.
Prediction: Outside of Keston Hiura and Forrest Whitley, Nick Senzel is one of the last prospects to make his debut from inside the top 10 of our fantasy top 100. I think his 85th percentile season is similar to what Anthony Rendon did in 2014: 111/21/83/17 .287/.351/.473. Senzel is an all-around contributor and in fantasy, I like his staying power over Carter Kieboom and Nate Lowe. You’ll likely need 30 percent of your FAAB budget to land him, but he could be a difference maker if he remains high in the lineup.