I’m going to flip it on you a little with this Griffin Canning MLB Debut Post. I have some extra time on my hands this week, so why not watch the start, and compare and contrast the MLB version of Canning with the player described in his scouting reports. We’ll draw from our own Angels Top 30 written by Matt Thompson, Fangraphs, and Baseball Prospectus. As an added treat, it just so happens to be the first road game of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s young career. From a fantasy perspective, I expect Canning to have positive impact on the Angels rotation from here in out. The injuries and ineffective starts are piling up. Can the former UCLA ace stop the bleeding?

Scouting Reports: A second-round pick in the 2017 draft, Canning carried a heavy workload his final season at UCLA. This led the Angels to take a more prudent approach with Canning, as they held back his full season debut until the following season. Not all that different from the approach the Mariners took with 2018 first rounder Logan Gilbert.

Pitch Mix: The first thing that sticks out to you in the scouting reports is the four-pitch mix, and the jump in fastball velocity from his college days. Matt, Eric, and the BP team all make a point of stating that. Matt digs in a little on the history and usage here “The fastball headlines a balanced four-pitch arsenal, but it comes with a pair of above-average breaking balls and a changeup that has potential to get to that point with some refinement. He relied on his changeup more while at UCLA, but has gone more towards the breaking balls since entering the Angels organization.” I’ll make a point to watch the secondaries and note what the usage is. Any pitcher that’s had a multitude of prominent secondaries in a short window, is either trying to refine one to plus, or has extraordinary feel for a deep arsenal. It should be interesting to see if the changeup has indeed backed up, or if he’s refined the shape of his breaking balls to neutralize opposite handed batters. BP does an excellent job of describing the shape of Canning’s breaking balls “big 12-6 curve... that has consistent shape and deception” and that it “plays well off a tighter, shorter slider that comes out like the fastball but with sharp late tilt”.

Health: Everyone notes his ability to repeat his mechanics and throw strikes, but there are concerns regarding the effort in his delivery and checkered medical history. It should be noted he did only throw around 110 innings over 25 starts in 2018. Even in his three Triple-A starts Canning has maxed out at 82 pitches, so that’s something to monitor.

Outcomes: Fangraphs describes him as a number four starter, while Matt and BP put a number three ceiling on Canning. I think the excitement for Canning is rooted in his advanced feel, while the concerns stem from his lack of elite stuff, and the aforementioned durability red flags.

First Inning: Canning came out throwing gas sitting 94-95 with some rise up in the zone. Initial impressions, God he reminds me of Trevor Bauer, but not exactly. He has an accentuated pause before push off, and he has a slight cross body delivery, though I wouldn’t call it crossfire. Okay, other thoughts... his curveball is a real bender and has a true 12-6 shape. His slider is the better of the two for its swing and miss ability, but his curveball is an effective lefty neutralizer.

Uneventful first MLB inning for Canning, as he throws 12 pitches, generates two groundball outs, a fly out, generates a swinging strike on a curveball to Galvis.

Second Inning: All the power bats are coming up with Smoak, Vlad Jr., and Rowdy Tellez. Canning starts a run, striking out all three in order two via the swinging strike. He battled back after falling behind 3-1 to Smoak, got a swing on a high outside fastball, and then stunned him with a fastball over the plate.

His slider looks great in his at bats vs Vlad Jr. He gets swings on a first pitch slider out of the zone, and then a high 94 mph fastball. He battled deep into the count with Tellez throwing a mix of all four pitches before getting Rowdy to bite on a high outside fastball.

Not the most efficient inning, but his stuff looked nasty. Seemed a little more settled in, but didn’t lose the zip on his fastball. Better sliders this inning.

Third Inning: By far Canning’s most efficient inning of the night. He continued a run of strikeouts from the second inning through the first two batters, getting punch outs on swinging strikes against his slider to Brandon Drury, and a high fastball to Teoscar Hernandez.

Fourth Inning: The early fastball velocity and command escaped him this inning, and he leaned heavy into his breaking balls. Tossing 18 in total of the 26 pitches in the inning. He did get Eric Sogard early to complete a run of 10 consecutive batters retired to start his career. After that the wheels came off a little. He got ahead of Galvis in a 1-2 count before the shortstop fouled off a curveball, took an overthrown fastball at 93, and then poked a changeup between the second and first baseman. This was followed by another hit from Grichuk, a walk to Smoak, followed by a wild pitch with the bases loaded. This was the only run he would allow in the inning as he would get Vlad Jr. to groundout, followed by a strikeout of Rowdy Tellez.

Fifth Inning: With 73 pitches coming into the inning and his stuff fading, I didn’t have much hope that Canning would get beyond the fifth. It only compounded my preconceived notions when Brandon Drury homered off Canning’s second pitch of the inning, a high fastball. Teoscar Hernandez roped a double on the second pitch of his at bat, and I wondered if this might be it for Canning. They left him in to face the number nine hitter Luke Maile, he induced a hard hit fly out to right field, and his night was over at 81 pitches.

Conclusion: The scouting reports weren’t far off on velocity and preferred pitch mix. He didn’t command his fastball as well as I expected. There’s certainly an argument for nerves, with it being his major league debut, and the amped up fastball early backed that up. His curveball was definitely his leading pitch against left-handers and it showed nice shape, and he generally commanded it well. He broke out a few changeups, and it showed some fade. His slider-fastball combo was his preferred method against right-handers and it should be a successful one if he lands his slider to his gloveside and peppers the top of the zone with high heat. It’s a good pitch mix, but I’m not sure I’d say any are plus.

Canning’s mechanics are interesting. I wouldn’t say they’re violent, but they’re certainly high effort. Canning uses a pause, before bringing his arm back and it leads to some long arm action. He repeats well, but the amount of effort seemed to drain some of his bite and command as the pitch count climbed. It will be interesting to see if Canning starts to work into higher pitch counts with a few more starts. Right now he looks like an arm with upside but some limitations the second time through the order. It’s one start, and there’s a lot to like about Canning going forward. A good third or fourth starter seems accurate.