Nate Lowe simply has nothing more to prove in the minor leagues. Not too shabby for a 13th-round pick. Lowe began his collegiate career at Mercer and didn’t play very much before going the JUCO route. He had a strong JUCO campaign and ended up transferring and finishing his college stint at Mississippi State where he flashed some of that raw pop and a strong plate approach. That strong approach translated immediately to pro ball, but the power did not. In 2017 he had seven homers and 31 total extra base hits. Then, a philosophy change happened. Lowe changed his launch angle and tried to do more damage at the plate. The results took off immediately. In 2018 he started off in High-A and climbed all the way to Triple-A. He hit 27 homers, had 60 extra base hits and finished up with a cumulative .330/.416/.568 slash line.
The Rankings
Lowe clocked in at #75 in our cornerstone Top 100 (defense included) but #33 in our fantasy top 300 list. On the Rays Top 30 he was ranked sixth overall.
The Tools
Defense (40 field/50 arm): The one knock on Lowe is his athleticism, or general lack thereof. That shows up here. He’s not a butcher at the bag, but he doesn’t have much range and lacks an explosive first step. He will field what is hit to him, and for an offensive profile like this that is all that’s required. He’s better than Ji-Man Choi at first though, and I expect him to be deployed in that fashion more often than not. He did get himself into better shape entering 2018 and improved his flexibility, so there’s a chance I’m too low here.
Power (60 game/65 raw): In our peak projection feature on our fantasy prospect list we have Lowe down for 25-homer power and a .520 slugging percentage. I might take the over on the overall homer total. Lowe has plus power. Before his transformation into a well-rounded line drive hitter Lowe was looked at as more of an organizational depth piece with plus raw power but a swing that didn’t allow him to fully tap into it. That’s not the case now. He made a conscious effort to lift the ball and cause more damage and that’s exactly what has happened. He did it without taking from his plus approach or altering his contact rate. He has all fields power.
Hit (60 present/70 future): This is Lowe’s best tool. If you factor his plus plate skills into the equation I’d bump the hit tool up to a 70 present grade. A 12% walk rate and a 16% K rate across three levels in 2018 is elite production. I’ve made this comparison before with Lowe. He is similar to Kevin Durant. Durant was playing guard in high school before he had a massive growth spurt and became 6-foot-11. He developed all the elite skills like ball-handling and long range shooting before he grew into his new body. Lowe developed the all fields hit tool, and had the plus raw power that he couldn’t always get to. That changed with a new philosophy and getting in better shape. He’s now a future middle-of-the-lineup hitter because he has no glaring weaknesses. He’s transformed himself from an organizational soldier to a (possible) left-handed Paul Goldschmidt.
Speed (35 present/30 future): He’s not a zero runner, but he’s not a stolen base threat either. This isn’t a part of his game you need to concern yourself with. He has enough speed to rack up 30+ doubles which is all you need to be concerned about.
Prediction: Lowe is one of the most exciting offensive prospects in the game, and if you couldn’t tell we are excited for him here at Prospects Live. He’s a master craftsman in the box and has no real glaring weaknesses. His second stint in Triple-A Durham has been a successful one thus far as he heads to Tampa with a .300/.444/.543 line with three long balls over 21 games. At this time last year Lowe was in High-A and now he’s in the big leagues. He needs to be rostered in every format and he might be a top ten first baseman right out of the gate. Personally, I’m willing to double down and seriously say he could be a left-handed Paul Goldschmidt.