Photo courtesy of Bryan Green
Every year I go on vacation to Florida. In the spring of 2017, I was in the Sunshine state on my usual siesta, taking in games in Bradenton (caught Ke’Bryan Hayes, Will Craig, and others that year). Meanwhile in the Carolina League, a former Red Sox first rounder was emerging early in the season. That player was Michael Chavis, who continued his assault on the minors throughout that 2017 campaign. I remember digging into the box scores on the plane ride back to New England, wondering at what point in the summer I would get to catch the upstart third baseman with Portland.
In late June of 2017 Chavis was promoted to Double-A Portland playing alongside current Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers. I remember taking in a series with the duo in Hartford, and while he was not quite on Devers level, the hard contact at the point of contact was obvious, as he ripped liners all over the field. Following the 2017 campaign, Boston assigned Chavis to the Arizona Fall League where he showed relatively well in 23 games with Peoria slashing .261/.327/.478 with four homers and 17 RBI. Then it came April, and with it an 80-game PED suspension for anabolic steroids that cut Chavis’ 2018 to just 46 games mostly split between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket. For many this called into question the third baseman’s carrying tool, his 70 grade raw power. A year later, there’s been time for Chavis to regain some of his 2017 prospect stock but questions still remain. Let’s take a look at just what the Red Sox are getting with his recent promotion.
The Rankings
Chavis did not make the cut in our Top 100 prospect list, but ranked 135 on our fantasy list. However, I did rank Chavis number one in our Red Sox list. Additionally I wrote a post detailing my prediction for Chavis’ potential impact on the Red Sox this season.
The Tools
Defense (45 Field/55 Arm): A natural shortstop coming out of the amateur ranks, Chavis hasn’t played the pivot in several years, first moving to third base, followed by first, and now second. Due to his arm, and the Red Sox current need at the keystone, I like Chavis to see a fair amount of run at second. His footwork can be messy at times, but he has the arm to make the throws on double plays, and could develop into an average regular there. In the modern game the demand for range at second has been negated by the focus on positioning and shifting.
Power (60 Game/70 Raw): A Michael Chavis batting practice is sight to behold. The 70 raw grade is not hyperbole. I’ve seen Chavis hit multiple balls in the 105 mph exit velocity range, and the statcast data at the MLB level should support this. The minor league stats do too: he’s got a .274 ISO dating back to the beginning of 2017, a .559 slugging percentage, a .915 OPS, and 51 doubles and 44 home runs in that time frame.
Hit (45 present/50 future): Some debate can likely be had here when you look at Chavis’ minor league batting average and strikeout rate. He’s hit .266 since his promotion to Double-A in late June 2017, and his strikeout rate has stayed just a touch above 20 percent. Not terrible, but Chavis’ approach is contact over approach, as he looks to put the ball in play over working deep into counts. His bat to ball skills are above average to plus, so it’s not a plan of attack that’s cost him a great deal offensively. That said, there’s been signs of improvement regarding Chavis’ walk rate since returning from injury. In 33 Double-A games in 2018, Chavis walked at a 9.4 percent clip, and through 12 contests with Pawtucket this season Chavis is rocking an elite 14.6 percent mark. This has allowed Chavis to produce a .954 OPS in the early going despite a .214 BABIP. In fact, Chavis’ .250 batting average despite the low average on balls in play speaks to both his power and improved approach. So there’s a chance a future 50 hit tool grade is light, but I’d like to see his patience continue to trend in the right direction before bumping him to a 55.
Speed (40 present/40 Future): Chavis is not going to run, and he’s not a very strong baserunnner, that’s not to say he’s prone to mistakes, but he’s a station to station runner, that hits for power, you’re not drafting “The Centaur” for his legs. Yes, I have dubbed Chavis “The Centaur” mostly due to his quality chin strap beard which would earn easy 70 present grades.
Prediction: It might take some time, even a few shuttles back and forth between Boston and Pawtucket an hour south, but I stand by my belief that by mid-June Chavis will see everyday playing time, with the possibility of him taking over the job at second base full time. At the moment the organization isn’t comfortable enough with his defense at the keystone to start him there and let him run with the job. More likely you see Chavis in a variety of roles at second, third, first, and DH. I do think his power will translate, as he’s taken a liking to the juicy MLB balls in his first exposure to the forbidden fruit at Triple-A best exemplified by his .350 ISO. He may struggle with the batting average slightly, but it would not shock me to see a .260/.330/.475 slashline at the end of 2019. In other words, I like the player a lot, but he’s not here to save Boston’s season.