Every few weeks we dust off the mailbag, dig into your questions, and get The P Live Crew together to sing “Me So Horny” while answering your questions. Below is the product of those sessions! If you have a question that missed this week’s post, you can email us at askprospectslive@gmail.com. Or you can simply leave you question in the comments.
As always thanks for the support of readers like you!
“I picked up Vientos in my deep keeper league shortly after picking up Wander Franco before the Appy season. For most the summer I was able to watch both Franco and Vientos’ performance side-by-side as it were. Though Vientos’ 2018 production does not match WFs it does compare favorably; he’s clearly ahead of the curve in terms of production by a teenager yet there is a CHASM between WF and him when it comes to rankings, hype, etc... For point of reference, WF is MLB pipeline’s #14 overall, Vientos is not in top 100 and barely makes their list of top 10 Mets prospects at #8.
Franco: 17yrs old .351/.418/1.004....11 HR...57 RBI...27BB/19Ks...242 ABs...
Vientos: 18yrs old .287/.389/.878...11 HR...52 RBI...37BB/43Ks...223 ABs...
Again- I completely understand Franco is in a class of his own, I just can’t help but wonder if Franco hadn’t played in the same league wouldn’t Vientos have been the toast of the Appy? And then how much more love would he be getting? What am I missing on him - or - is it everyone else missing out? ”
Hey Trevor, I think you’re right on the money on Vientos not receiving the hype he deserves. He’s someone who’s already shown he’s adept at making adjustments at a young age (he’s made swing changes to incorporate more power) and he finished the second half of his season on an absolute tear hitting .328/.455/.576 with a .248 ISO. He’s just inside my personal top 100 fantasy list and I’ll give you a sneak peek and tell you he’s inside Jason Woodell’s top five for our Mets Top 30 list. However just keep in mind that he while he was great, it was all in rookie ball. I’d still be buying, but his value is still very fluid. -Eddy Almaguer
I fully back what Eddy has said here. Certainly the approach, power, and instincts are impressive for an 18 year old. I think the biggest difference when comparing Vientos and Wander is projection, relative to age and experience. Vientos is 15 months his elder and had already tasted the Appy league for a week at the end of 2017. Franco skipped the lower levels of rookie ball altogether and was the best player under 19 in the circuit. That said, it’s like comparing a very good young hitter to a great young hitter. The talent on the Kingsport team likely hurt some of his hype as well, as Newton, Kelenic, and Santana all performed well, and stole some headlines. In the end I’d use the lack of buzz to my advantage and take the discount. When you’re ahead of the consensus take advantage of it. -Ralph
“I love the work you guys do. The level of content/research I find on Prospects Live helps motivate me to stay engaged in managing my dynasty squad all year long. To that end, I have a couple of questions that I would love your input on. The first is a broader FYPD question while the 2nd is very specific to my dynasty team.
1) Removing risk entirely from the equation, what 5 FYPD prospects have the highest ceilings?
*Bonus element to the question: Would Kristian Robinson crack that list if he were FYPD eligible?
2) In my league I can keep 7 prospects (10 teams so 70 total keeps). ETA and position aren’t concerns for me. Vlad Jr, Eloy, Robles, Hiura, Keller, and Florial seem to be my locks. Who is your pick for spot number 7 out of Julio Pablo Martinez, Vidal Brujan, and Adonis Medina? ”
Chip, thanks for the kind words. To answer question 1. I think if you’re ranking FYPD guys in terms of ceilings, I would go India, Gorman, Kelenic, Adams, and Winn. You could make a case for Luciano as well. I think Robinson can certainly crack this list and if you were to ask all of us, we may have a different answer for FYPD Top 5.
As to your second question. I would replace Florial with Brujan and keep Adonis Medina as my 7th guy. - Jason Woodell
My FYPD ceiling only guys would be: Gorman, J.Adams, X.Edwards, Luciano and India.
I disagree with Jason about tossing out Florial! I’d hang on to him and make Brujan my easy add. -Eddy Almaguer
Hey Chip! Your second question first. I agree with Eddy, hold your six and add Brujan. That’s a nice core.
I’d rank Robinson fourth in a standard FYPD setup. If we were to remove risk I’d rank him third but very close to Gorman (1) and Adams (2). So we’d be looking at Gorman, Adams, Robinson, Edwards, and Cole Winn in my “risk-free” ranks. -Ralph
“I like the work you guys are doing and I hope that you’re seeing substantial followers and views. While your organizational player profiles are well done, at what point and in what format are players gauged, as prospects, against each other? ”
Scott, you aren’t the first person to ask this question. Keep in mind that we are building a foundation here and we think that it is important to focus on the few things we do well first. There was talk about including scouting grades with the ranks, but ultimately we decided that as we launch this endeavor, we would hold off on filling up each top 30 with a bunch of FV 40-45 players. In reality, a team doesn’t really rank their own prospects. There are a handful of guys that they invest heavily in. The rest are there to play catch with those guys. If a player develops from that, great. Ultimately though, the only rankings that really matter to a big league team are the top five of the 40 man and the bottom five of the 40 man.
Now, to answer your question in a more specific fashion. Once the top 30s are written and we have a library of 900-1000 prospects, then we will transition into ranking the systems and release a top 400-500 prospect list. And since you mentioned Brujan, I’ll say this: Good bet he is a top 75 prospect when we drop the list. - Jason Woodell
Also, be on the lookout for several Top 100 fantasy lists coming out early next year! -Eddy Almaguer
Lots of lists coming very soon. In the background we’re working on a variety of rankings to aid you in all of you drafts. Jason is correct, we really wanted to build a foundation before adding grades. Once we have 900 players ranked I plan to grade those against each other. As you alluded to, those grades are more value across organizations than they are within. Sit tight we have a lot more coming. -Ralph
“ I am OTC with pick 1.2 and Mize was taken with 1.1. I am leaning heavily on India but my bias due to the hatred of the South Siders might have me discarding Madrigal to easily. The only knock I see on Madrigal is his lack of power but even though I find him lower than India on most prospect rankings the write up always seems to glow a little more. ”
While a case could be and has been made to take Gorman and Larnach 1-2, since you brought up India v Madrigal, we choose India. Ever see a meme of Homer Simpson drooling over a doughnut? That is us drooling over India’s bat speed. - Jason Woodell
I’m in the minority with Larnach as the first overall pick in FYPD drafts, likely because of my OBP bias. But I think he’s an easy 35 HR, .360 OBP guy that should move quick. He’d be my pick. - Eddy Almaguer
I’d take India (of course), I think you’re getting a top 25 fantasy prospect. Madrigal is the most overrated fantasy player in this draft. He doesn’t have enough upside in my opinion, the worry of empty average and real baseball hype is real. -Ralph
“I’m in a dynasty league that rosters 80 prospects. Its a points league (favoring power and pitching). I’ve followed you guys’ podcasts and really enjoy the system scrums. Which are a few guys that will make jumps towards the tops of prospects lists (a la paddock or Kirilloff) that I should target this season? I’ll list a few players that I assume y’all are high on just based on the site-please add any others for me!
Nate Pearson, Kristian Robinson Luis Patino, Both Luis Garcia’s, Trevor Larnach, Jazz Chisholm, and Tyler Nevin ”
Yes to all those guys. If you’re looking for a few sleepers that will be top 100 prospects industry wide at this time next season: Marco Luciano, Mark Vientos, William Contreras, Ronny Mauricio, and Vidal Brujan. - Jason Woodell
You have a great variety of names already. Chisholm and Patiño can really take off next year. Robinson is already a hot commodity. Keep an eye out for Jordyn Adams from the Angels as well. His ceiling is immense, though there’s still risk. - Eddy Almaguer
You want all those guys, I’d put high priority on Robinson, Luis Garcia (Washington), Jazz, and Trevor Larnach. Great options! -Ralph
“Hey guys. Thinking about targeting a young (hopefully discounted) starting pitcher in a dynasty trade. Dominant SPs are highly valued in this league. Consequently, it is difficult to acquire finished products via trade. Who do you like among:
Honeywell
Kopech
Martes
Cease
”
I’d rank them Honeywell>Kopech>Cease>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Martes (assuming this is Frances). -Eddy Almaguer
Go Cease, Honeywell, Kopech, and then forget Martes. Are pitchers like Luis Oviedo or Deivi Garcia available? -Ralph
“Am I wrong for pegging Jesse Winker a big sleeper in Dynasty leagues? Over stints in 17-18 he’s hit .299/.397/.460 with an elite BB/K. Could the power keep coming from his approach? How concerning is his shoulder injury? ”
Joseph, you and I are on the same wavelength. I’m not terribly concerned about the shoulder injury because he’ll be eight months removed from surgery once the season starts. I still might have some reservation, but they won’t be serious. It’s encouraging that he’s flashed more power in the majors than in the minors, but expect him to hover around the 15 home run mark. It’s his ratios where he’ll earn his keep. He’s definitely a target of mine and I’m obviously bumping him way up in OBP formats. - Eddy Almaguer
I concur with Eddy, I’m in the midst of a 15 team OBP Dynasty Mock, and I took Winker with my 9th pick in the draft. Really high baseline in that format with his elite on base ability, and developing pop. We forget about the wrist injury in 2016, that sapped some of the power he had previously shown. I expect Winker to be one of the bigger coups in dynasty and redrafts this season. A great target with a high floor. -Ralph