Recently, we analyzed ten prospects off to hot starts, which was a productive exercise in terms of identifying players to attempt to acquire.
However, what if those players can’t be acquired? My goal at Prospects Live is directly provide assistance for those with questions when it comes to their specific roster, but, sadly, covering every single professional baseball player isn’t exactly reasonable.
With that in mind, how about a mailbag series? Every week, I will be answering your questions that tailor specifically to your interests and state of your roster. Whether this is wondering about a certain player, trade advice, or overall roster strategy in general, I am excited to dive in and answer your questions as thoroughly as possible! Without further adieu, let’s get into our first dynasty mailbag segment of 2021!
The 20th overall pick in the 2019 draft after posting an absurd 107-6 K-BB ratio as a junior at Elon, Kirby was always seen as a command artist who would likely advance through the minors quickly. However, based on several sources, he’s become more than that, adding velocity in addition to showcasing a deeper arsenal with multiple breaking balls and a changeup.
After not walking a batter in 23 innings in Low-A in 2019, Kirby’s command was definitely on full display. Yet, he didn’t miss an extraordinary amount of bats in college, so it was exciting to imagine what he’d accomplish with a better overall arsenal. It’s only been two starts, but his ratios (37.5% K, 3.1% BB) in High-A have been fantastic. Not having a 2020 season made it difficult to assess Kirby’s ability to hold his revamped arsenal for an extended workload, but it was easy to buy into the idea that he had taken another level in terms of his individual progression and I’d expect him to continue to have success.
The Mariners will have opportunities in their rotation next season , and they generally let their starters go deep into games. Finding pitchers with the ability to accumulate innings, particularly young ones, is incredibly hard in dynasty, so Kirby definitely has a scarce skill set. Most importantly, his command and likely ability to accumulate innings gives him a much higher floor than the average pitching prospect, making him someone I’d feel much more comfortable relying upon. I’m excited to continue to monitor his progress this season and would anticipate a promotion for him soon. If I had to guess, I’d imagine him in the majors by mid 2022.
The Orioles have multiple interesting trade pieces in Mancini and Means, though I’m skeptical either gets traded.
Mancini currently has a 143 weighted-runs-created plus, is a consistently above-average offensive producer, and has two years left of club control left. Nevertheless, the demand for corner players is generally low, so I’m skeptical Baltimore will get a “home-run” haul for him; potential fits include the Brewers, Cardinals, Giants, and Padres. As for Means, he’d be the much more coveted option given the drastic need for pitching depth, but is there a team willing to give up the prospect capital that Baltimore would be looking for? We saw what Jose Quintana brought back the White Sox when traded to the Cubs, and although that was an outlier, I’m sure that will be Baltimore’s asking price (multiple premier prospects). I wonder if an in-division trade with the Rays, who would benefit from Means’ cost-controlled years and have trade ammo, could be reached, but I anticipate him continuing to pitch at Oriole Park. Sadly, that’s not ideal for fantasy, though it comes the fans an exciting player to watch as they wait for Adley Rutschman and co. to lead a new era of winning baseball.
There is something to be said that we in dynasty fantasy tend to “shoot the moon” for upside, rather than taking a player with a high floor. Given that Edwards has elite contact skills and will steal a lot of bases, he’ll definitely have fantasy value in the future. Nevertheless, is the general risk of prospects associated with him worth a very limited pay-off? Low-power hitters can grow into more overtime, but given his lack of physicality and high ground-ball rates, it’s unlikely that will be the case for Edwards. If so, I question whether he’ll draw enough walks to get on base in a way that compensates for his very limited power; not being in a batting average league makes it more difficult. I guess the best current value comparison would be what Isiah Kiner-Falefa is doing in Texas? You definitely want players on this on your team, especially with steals being hard to come by, but certainly more in a complementary role .
Long story short, I do in fact see Edwards as someone being very undervalued, but you’ll need to right players around him to take advantage of his strengths.
The A’s have to please with what they’ve gotten out of Irvin - 3.75 FIP, 0.9 fWAR - this season, especially since he wasn’t expected to have a rotation spot coming into the year. Nevertheless, he would certainly be someone I’d want to sell high on in fantasy.
The 27-year-old lefty has very little track record in the way of missing bats, and that hasn’t changed (17.3% K) this season. His command (4.5%) has always driven his profile, but since he doesn’t induce ground balls, limiting walks only goes so far. Only one time in his minor-league career did he post a HR/FB rate lower than the 8.2% rate he’s at now, so you’d expect that to regress noticeable. When that happens, you’re essentially saving him for weak opponents at home, which, at that point, makes him extremely interchangeable. If there is legitimate interest in him, I’d look to make a move soon.
It’s ironic how similar some of these players are to each other, and I see them all, especially four of the five here, very interchangeable.
I’d lean Groshans as the top option. Whiffs are a concern, but Toronto trusted him enough to send him to Double-A, and his combination of walks and raw power makes up for it. Valera is in the same boat as Groshans, as although outfielders are easier to come by, his raw power has translated much more in games than Groshans. Perez, meanwhile, has no production to speak of, but is cited with having an intriguing offensive skillset. You worry about his the wide range of outcomes associated with him, though he’s also the youngest of the bunch and perhaps could separate himself from the pack.
Hassell has the best cited hit tool of the bunch, and he’s showing more power with the ability to draw walks thus far in High-A. With him, his profile is slightly less clear with the smallest track record, but he also has the chance to be the most well-round. Finally, Orelvis Martinez rates the lowest with my model and doesn’t have as much cited “raw abilities”, though his early adjustments to the pro level have been encouraging.
Really, it depends on where you’re sourcing your information from. All of these prospects profile as high-variance players without statistical track records, meaning it’s mainly about preference. Groshans probably has the best combination of position, current level, and offensive profile, though it’s hard for me to look past Perez in a league that also has OPS. These are the types of prospects who could pay off in a major way, or not at all, which is the beauty of this all!
Something I noticed when I was creating my dynasty model projections was how much the marketplace devalues pitching, especially with prospects. That’s generally also the case when it comes to the draft and prospect acquisition in the MLB too; pitching prospects are extremely volatile.
The answer why is two-fold. For starters, our ability to identify who the premier young pitchers are is inferior to that of hitters, based on historical success rates. Not only is the “hit rate” on top arms not extremely strong, but there are plenty of developmental success stories later on. Pitching is an individualized action, meaning that usage changes and velocity spikes can drive success in a way that is generally unpredictable and not related to previous pedigree. On the other hand, hitting is a more skill-oriented task, making performance much more important.
Then, you factor in the amount of injuries that persist with young pitchers, in addition to unpredictable workloads, and it’s easy to see why we want to trust hitters as the foundation of our team. In redraft leagues, I often target hitters early and focus more on depth with pitchers due to their overall volatility, and it’s a strategy I certainly believe also works in dynasty. Prior to Manoah’s debut, I definitely would have moved Manoah for Marsh, and would still be open to moving similar regarded pitchers for a player like Marsh. Generally, also, the more random dart throws you can throw on lesser-known pitchers, the better with trades. Star hitters + pitching depth should equal success in dynasty.
This is a great question to complement the discussion on pitching prospects. Luis Medina is the type of pitching prospect that is becoming much more common; a lot of velocity and strikeout ability with limited command and ability to accumulate innings. These prospects are risky, though they also can be very valuable if their efficiency proves legitimate.
Although he had his fair share of struggles in 2019, Medina was cited with making a mechanical change late in the year that improve his effectiveness. Sadly, without a 2020 season, we weren’t able to get a progress report on his improvements. Thus far, in 23 innings at High-A, he has posted an absurd 44.3% strikeout rate, and although his 13.6% walk rate is high, it’s lower than it was in 2021.
You can be viable for fantasy even with a limited workload (Medina is averaging 4-5 innings per start), but I tend to be more skeptical of these types of prospects. Their range of outcomes is extremely wider, and that is something I want to avoid with pitchers in general- the pay-off is less than with a high-end hitter, especially without the innings. Since High-A isn’t an aggressive promotion, I’d continue to see if his strikeout success continues; barring some command tweak, he’d be someone I would look to trade. As for him reaching Triple-A, his overall arsenal could put him even in the majors this season in a relief role, which is probably his likely path for a contending Yankees team.
It is hard to find a hitting prospect that doesn’t have some issues with strikeouts, but this was the issue most associated with Bobby Witt Jr. when he was selected with the #2 overall pick by the Royals in 2019. Plus, since he was old for the class, there was more pressure on him to make an immediate impact than some of the other high-school picks.
That said, Double-A is a very aggressive promotion. The 30.9% strikeout rate is concerning, but I’d still hope that it progresses over time. His batted-ball numbers that were made public from spring training should make us confident that his power could show up over time (he’s not hitting many ground balls), so it ultimately goes down to his on-base potential. There is a chance he ends up as a defensive-minded shortstop with solid power, though he’ll still provide you with steals and home runs at a premium position with everyday playing time. There are other young middle infielders that I might prefer with more clear on-base skills, yet we’d be silly to write him off after 100 plate appearances at a level he’s very young for.
Of course! In all seriousness, there is a lot to be excited about with Manoah. I wrote about him in length as a prospect off to a hot start, but to summarize: he had a dominant junior year at West Virginia, but he had a overall limited track record, making his minor-league success more meaningful than for the typical prospect.
Well, Manoah not only has minor-league success, but also instantly adjusted to the majors with a 31.8% called strike + whiff rate in his major-league debut at Yankee Stadium. Even more enticing, he demonstrated the ability to throw four effective pitches: a four-seamer with vertical carry, a slider that generated a lot of called strikes to lefties, a changeup with exceptional fade, and a sinker that works as a complementary offering. In fact, all generated above-average “stuff” scores for the pitch type, per Eno Sarris of The Athletic:
I’m always about shipping stocks at their highest point, and Manoah does play in the AL East. Still, it would have to take a lot considering he appears to be one the verge of becoming one of the premier young pitchers in dynasty right now.
As we’ve gone over, hitting prospects are much better bets generally than pitching prospects, which is important to factor in here. Additionally, Hunter Brown’s profile appears to be as a limited innings, high strikeouts with a lot of walks profile, and he also doesn’t have much of a statistical track record; he’s the type of “too risky with probably not enough pay-off” pitcher that we categorized with Medina.
Not being in a batting average league is unfortunate with Matos, who, by his early numbers, doesn’t appear likely to draw a lot of walks. Still, his 18.1% strikeout rate thus far in Single-A is much more impressive when you consider how high strikeout rates in the minors are currently. Thus, he’ll probably get on base enough to complement clear raw power and speed. That’s the type of profile you’d want to avoid in real life, but for fantasy, that skillset is very valuable. I’m not saying I wouldn’t trade Matos, but I’d want a lot more than Brown.
This is a very difficult question. I have Casas ranked slightly higher than Larnach, but Larnach is already in the majors and has registered a 98th percentile max exit velocity, which is indicative of future raw power. He’s a lot less risky than Casas, though Casas’ offensive profile at first base is legitimate.
That makes it come down to Wlliams and Cronenworth, and I’ll go against the reliever. Cronenworth’s contact skills, plate discipline, and defensive versatility give him the type of floor you’re looking for in dynasty formats, whereas Williams is plays the most volatile position and has already seen his command take a step back this season. There is significantly less “complete bust” potential with the second side, and in dynasty, it’s important to avoid that scenario with trades.
What a great transition to talk about Triston Casas! After posting a 136 wRC+ as a 19-year-old at Single-A in 2019, he’s had similar success with a 162 wRC+ thus far in Double-A. When you consider he’s only 21-years-old still, that is remarkably impressive. With the amount of power (.224 ISO) he’s showing, a 24% strikeout rate is more than reasonable, and there’s enough batting average and on-base abilities present for him to profile as an all-around offensive player at first base, which isn’t filled with young stars.
Duran, meanwhile, also is someone recently highlighted for his early start to the season. During the 2020 stop, he made a swing change to hit for more power and it’s showing up in games. He’s hitting fewer ground balls (35.3%), and has traded strikeouts (25.6% K) for more power (.347 ISO) and walks (12.2% BB) in Triple-A thus far. Now, we’re looking at a player with elite stolen-base ability, power, and enough on-base skills. That’s exactly what you’re looking for in fantasy, and a debut for him should be on the horizon. I’m excited to see if the approach change holds up; if so, it’ll be a remarkable development for both fantasy owners and the Red Sox.
This is a fantastic question, and one I thought about in great length. After extensive deliberation, I see your situation as similar to general long-rebuilding MLB teams. At some point, you need to make some sort of progress, or else there isn’t much to point to the rebuild.
That makes it imperative that you identify who your core prospects are. You state that you have deep prospect capital, so assuming you have clear building blocks at the top, these are the players you should look to center the rebuild around. From there, I’d be on the lookout for high-floor players with MLB experience that may be devalued due to perceived low ceilings or non-elite prospect pedigree; players such as Pavin Smith and Luis Garcia come to mind. If you can turn some of your high-variance, lower-level prospects into players of this nature, I’d start to allow you to build a foundation that will lead to you maximizing your window when your core prospects establish themselves in the MLB. Be as opportunistic as possible when it comes to selling high on lower-level prospects where statistical success is less meaningful and aiming for more proven commodities.
Thank you for all of your outstanding questions this week! If more questions persist, please feel free to reach out to me, @talkmvp, on twitter. We will be back with another mailbag a week from now!