Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between former top pitching prospects getting back on track, two hitters coming into their own after slow starts, the rise of emerging frontline starter, and high-end pitchers making pitch-mix changes, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes.
Time To Buy Into Touki Toussaint + Triston McKenzie?
If you’ve read any of the dynasty baseball notes previously, you’ll know that I am a major proponent of the idea that development isn’t linear. Could Touki Toussaint and Triston McKenzie be the latest example of this principle? Both were former top pitching prospects who didn’t have the smooth transition to the MLB, but are still young and might now be turning a corner now.
Let us start with Toussaint. Still just 25 years old, he’s back in the Braves rotation after missing the first four months of the season, and has performed well thus far. In his first two starts, he’s worked 13.2 innings, allowed just two earned runs, and has struck out 15 batters while walking two. Immediately, what sticks out is the change in pitch mix. After mainly featuring a four-seam fastball, Toussaint has turned to a sinker this season, and it has guided him with inducing more ground balls (57.6%) and limiting barrels (3%) in this small sample size.
Toussaint’s curveball and splitter have always missed bats, so he can continue to lean on the sinker over his ineffective fastball to induce ground balls, I like the package there when it comes to limiting power and missing bats. The real question, though, is command; he’s walked 13.2% of the batters he’s faced throughout his MLB career, which puts him in “reliever” territory. So far, he’s throwing more pitches in the zone (49.1%) and limiting walks, which is what I’ll be looking at moving forward. There are still too many pitches over the plate, but I really buy into the pitch mix right now. If he truly can limit walks, there might be something here.
Limiting walks will also be critical for McKenzie, who has walked 16.3% of the batters he has faced this season. That said, the 23 year old never struggled with walks before this season, and it looks like we may be seeing definite improvement in that regard. Since being re-promoted on July 9, he’s walked just three batters over 19 innings pitched, and has worked 6+ innings in two of his three starts. That is remarkably encouraging, especially since strikeouts will never be a concern with him. As a vertical pitcher who can leave too many pitches over the heart of the plate, he’ll certainly be prone to home runs, yet this is all part of the learning curve of a young pitcher. At his peak, he figures to be a pitcher that misses bats and induces pop ups, thus limiting his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed while being undervalued by xFIP, which treats all balls in the air the same. Another key thing is the velocity. In his second stint in the minors his fastball is 1.5 mph faster which usually has correlated with his output.
It’s crazy how quickly we can be to move off of our priors, and what we know about McKenzie suggests he should be a productive fantasy asset moving forward. Toussaint comes with more risk and might not be worth buying if dynasty owners are sipping the Kool-Aid with his surge, but he appears to be a better optimized version of himself and definitely is worth adding in 12-team leagues. Ahead of the trade deadline, non-contending teams can continue to get great value with players in this mold; former top prospects who simply needed extra time to establish themselves in the show.
Less Whiffs, Better Results: Rhys Hoskins + Andrew Vaughn
While hitters can have success even while striking out, no one is ever going to say that more contact isn’t preferred if the quality of contact remains intact. In fact, most breakouts/surges that come with a strikeout decrease generally are more legitimate, making it something we look for when a player goes on a hot stretch. Furthermore, contact quantity correlates with batting average, a key fantasy category, giving it even more significance.
This brings me to two well-regarded hitters that are definitely getting better as the season has progressed. Rhys Hoskins concerned many when he started the season with a 100 wRC+ and .298 on-base percentage to start the season, but, quietly, he was always making improvements that were going to show up eventually:
This correlates with improvements in chase rate and barrel rate. Essentially, he’s making better decisions at the plate, which is allowing him to whiff less, but the better swing decisions also mean better optimization of contact. Still just 28-years-old, I’m fully buying him as a fringe top-100 dynasty asset moving forward. When it’s all said and done, I think we’re looking at a profile with better batting average and power with less walks, which, although might not be as ideal for real-life value, is perfect for fantasy.
Then, there is Andrew Vaughn. By not signing a veteran to be their designated hitter this offseason, the White Sox demonstrated lot of confidence in the former third overall pick, but with Eloy Jimenez going down with an injury (welcome back, Eloy!), he was suddenly forced to play left field for them. Remember, this was a first baseman who had only played half a season in the minors. With that in mind, a 101 wRC+ over the first three months of the season isn’t that underwhelming, but I’m sure owners of Vaughn expected more. Well, they’re finally getting it! In July, the 23-year-old has posted a 154 wRC+, decreased his strikeout rate to 13.3%, and is showing a lot of power (.268 ISO).
Is this a sign of things to come? This is definitely encouraging:
Most of Vaughn’s improvements have come versus fastballs, which makes sense on two fronts. One, he probably needed time to adjust to MLB velocity. Two, the foreign substance crackdown surely helped him here as well. Regardless, he’s a talented young player that needed time to adjust to the MLB level and is now coming into his own. That doesn’t seem surprising. If you are lucky enough to have shares of Vaughn, sit back, and enjoy a fun ride ahead!
Why I’m Optimistic About Patrick Sandoval
Despite inducing 32 whiffs in a start at the beginning of June, Patrick Sandoval remained a very under-the-radar pitcher for the Angels. Then, Saturday happened. The 24-year-old came two outs away from a no-hitter while striking out 13 and walking just one batter versus a talented Twins lineup, which, as expected, has suddenly put him on the radar of many.
Yet, to be honest, I have been surprised that Sandoval hasn’t gotten more attention; he’s been fantastic! As a starting pitcher, he has struck out 28.4% of the batters he has faced, has a 20.2 K-BB%, in addition to a 3.47 FIP. Plus, the way he’s doing it appears to be sustainable. See, Sandoval’s fastball is ineffective, but his secondary offerings certainly are not. His changeup has an absurd 54.9% whiff rate this year and a .187 wOBA allowed, making it one of the better offerings in all of baseball, and his slider has been just as productive with a 40.2% whiff and .141 wOBA allowed. What had held back Sandoval previously, though, was the fastball, but it’s clear that he’s starting to realize that:
What a shocker- throwing your best pitches more is a good idea! Sandoval not only is missing bats, but he’s now limiting barrels (3.3% in July) by inducing more ground balls (57.4% in July), thanks in large part to the increased off speed usage. Meanwhile, his minor-league track record points to him not being a flash of the pan either. Obviously, trying to acquire him now would be difficult given the hype around his last performance, yet Sandoval was always an emerging frontline starter. Angels fans, congratulations!
Pitch-Mix Changes Leading To Better Results: Kenta Maeda + Frankie Montas
Drafted as top-100 players in redrafts leagues this offseason, expectations were high for both Kenta Maeda and Frankie Montas. Both have flashed periods of excellence before, but after getting off to slow starts, many were wondering if they bought into the small sample sizes too much. Luckily, those concerns are starting to be alleviated.
For the year, Maeda’s 4.63 ERA sticks out like a sore thumb, but he’s getting back on track in a hurry. Over his past four starts, he sports a 2.35 ERA, 31.4% K-BB ratio, and a 1.68 FIP. The best part? It aligns perfectly with a pitch-mix change. Maeda’s slider over the past two seasons has induced a wOBA over .300, including a .371 wOBA in 2021. His splitter, on the other hand, is a fantastic pitch that induces whiffs (32.5%) AND ground balls (57.4%). With that in mind, I am glad to inform you that he has caught on to this trend:
With less sliders and more splitters, I’d expect better effectiveness moving forward for Maeda. The same goes for Frankie Montas, who has dealt with a similar issue this season. After posting a 4.72 ERA over the first three months of the season, he’s posted a 2.96 ERA, 2.87 FIP, and 30.3% strikeout rate. How? By doubling his splitter usage:
I mean, this pitch is just an absolute beauty:
Still just 28-years-old, Montas is an asset definitely worth buying into. Ahead of the trade deadline, he and Maeda hold a lot of value as pitchers on the rise with still-diminished trade value. The more splitters, the better!
Random Relievers Of The Week
And we’re back with this week’s edition of random relievers of the week. For this edition, let’s focus on some interesting multi-inning relievers who have success in completely different ways.
The Tigers have quietly gotten strong returns from their relievers recently, with Gregory Soto and Jose Cisnero standing out at the end of ballgames. That said, don’t overlook what Kyle Funkhouser has done this season. Working 38.1 innings in 28 games, he’s posted a 3.52 ERA, and ranks in the 94th percentile in barrel rate allowed. How does he do this? A sinker that has yielded a NEGATIVE nine-degree launch angle this season:
A 62% ground ball rate? That’ll play. He also is able to work up in the zone with a four-seam fastball, and has gotten a whiff on 47.5% of the sliders he’s thrown this year. As a former starting pitcher capable of working multiple innings, that’s intriguing.
Throw a sinker? Why do that when you’re Angel Perdomo? The Brewers’ lefty throws his fastball 65.3% of the time, and it’s easy to see why:
Walks have been a major issue for Perdomo, but he’s also always been able to miss bats, and has a 37.3% strikeout rate in 15.1 innings pitched this season. He’s certainly a work in progress, but if it clicks for the 27-year-old, the rewards could be tremendous as a multi-inning lefty weapon.
Other Notes:
I have been very impressed by Dodgers’ top pitching prospect Josiah Gray during his first two MLB appearances. Although home runs and walks have been an issue in his first eight innings, command inconsistencies can be expected for a young pitcher. Instead, focus on the pitch mix, which includes a vertical fastball and two distinct breaking balls. A 44.7% whiff rate is ridiculously impressive in that small sample size, and with a clear three-pitch mix, I expect much better results ahead for the young righty. His minor-league track record indicates someone who’ll post strong K-BB ratios with a clear vertical profile, which is something I’m always going to buy into.
Subscribe to the Patreon to check out the Dynasty Double Dose, a new daily podcast where I spotlight one MLB and one MiLB player per day! Recently, we’ve discussed Harrison Bader and Daulton Varsho as two perfect targets for rebuilding teams. Bader has cut his strikeout rate in half, which dramatically increases his batting average potential with some power and 97th percentile sprint speed. Varsho, meanwhile, is a rare breed for a catcher with 90th-percentile sprint speed, power production, and above-average contact rates. Get them now before owners of these players realize what they have!
In OBP leagues, Robbie Grossman and Yandy Diaz are two interesting veteran targets. Grossman has clearly made a swing change, hitting more fly balls (36.8%) than ground balls (30.4%) for the first time in his career. With the value he provides from stealing bases (12) and drawing walks (15.4%), he’s a perfect outfielder to add for win-now teams. Diaz, meanwhile, is awesome for daily leagues as someone who hits at the top of the Rays’ lineup vs lefties. He has walked (15.2%) more than he has struck out (14.9%). If he can continue to tap into more of his raw power with less ground balls, as he’s done this month, he’ll become much-more valuable, though the on-base ability and intriguing as a streamer from a runs-scored perspective is the main reason for the intrigue.
Looking for second-base options in deep leagues? Here are five names: David Bote, Andy Ibanez, Thairo Estrada, Jason Vosler, and Andrew Young. Bote is the most well-known of the bunch, and is sure to provide you with power (9.3% career barrel) with enough batting average/OBP ability. With Kris Bryant likely to be traded, he’ll get more playing time and will have multi-position flexibility. Ibanez and Estrada, meanwhile, each make a lot of contact and showcased more power in the minors; buy into them as boosts for batting average, and hope for power development. The same goes for Vosler, who has now hit for power for two straight years, has cut down on his strikeout rate this season, and could emerge as a platoon lefty-hitting second baseman/third basemen for the Giants very soon. As for Young, you’ll have to deal with the strikeouts, but he comes with a .207 ISO projection from ZiPs and is in line for more playing time for the rebuilding Diamondbacks. If I had to rank these five, I think I’d lean: Bote, Young, Vosler, Estrada, Ibanez. That said, all of them are worthwhile additions in 15-team leagues, with Bote a potential add in 12-team leagues.