Welcome to a new segment at Prospects Live: dynasty weekly notes!
Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered.
Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side. Also, since this is the first week of the series, these storylines may be slightly more broad and overarching than they will be in the future, where my hope is to condense the focus even further to the most under-the-radar stories.
With that addressed, let’s get to this week’s storylines! Between some standout pitching performance, a power hitter on the rise, and a lot of young talent on full display, there is plenty to get to!
Young Pitcher Update: Manoah, Skubal Take Center Stage
There was a lot of young pitching on display this week, but no one stood out more than Alek Manoah. In his major-league debut, he threw six shutout innings at Yankee Stadium, which isn’t exactly the most favorable place to make your debut. What stood out with Manoah, in addition to his 31.8% called-strike-whiff rate (CSW%), was that he featured four pitches that all rates out as above-average for the pitch type based on “stuff+”, per Eno Sarris of The Athletic.
A rising fastball, fading changeup, horizontal slider (5.2% more horizontal movement than average), and complementary sinker gives Manoah more than enough pitches to have success, regardless of the lineup. These are the types of pitchers that generally have success and the ones I want to buy into.
Meanwhile, although Casey Mize and Matt Manning have gotten a lot of the shine in Detroit (Mize is pitching well!), it’s Tarik Skubal who might end up as their best young pitcher. Following a recent hot stretch, he has bumped his strikeout percentage to 26.1%, in addition to a 4.33 K-BB ratio in May. With three-straight performances with 8+ strikeouts, something is clearly going right for the Detroit lefty. Why it is? It all has to do with his offspeed.
Skubal appears to have gone towards much more a cutter/slider and a slower, vertical curveball this season, which has created much more separation between the two. Now, he’s got potential four offerings (an excellent fastball and a productive changeup), when he was expected to be a “fastball only” type of pitcher. Additionally, his location charts indicate less pitches over the heart of plate (average fastball pitch horizontal 0.13 as opposed to -0.03), while his curveball has been buried much better. We are starting to see the pitcher who missed so many bats in the minors, and if he’s gone through his adaption process to the major-league level, a bright future could be ahead for the young lefty.
Then, there’s Luis Garcia. Due to injuries in the Astros’ rotation, the 24-year-old has not only been relied upon heavily, but as a traditional starting pitcher. In his seven games since becoming a traditional starting pitcher (as opposed to used in a bullpen game), he has yet to allow more than three earned runs, and just struck out seven while allowing zero earned runs in six strong innings against the Dodgers on Wednesday. Although I want to be skeptical of his fastball, which isn’t missing bats, that is more due to his command than “stuff”- he generates 1.7 more inches of vertical movement than average. Meanwhile, his current fastball pitch location (2.61, 0.04) indicates a lot of fastballs over the heart of the plate, which makes me confident of more misses bats moving forward. As for the rest of his arsenal, he is generating a 36.1% whiff rate or higher with his slider, cutter, changeup, and curveball, so even if the fastball command lags, he at least has a deep arsenal to rely upon. Even with the rotation getting healthier, he’s someone I would want to buy into in dynasty leagues.
Other notes on young pitchers:
Although Deivi Garcia’s overall numbers (4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K) weren’t impressive, I remain intrigued by his abilities. His low release height allows his fastball to play up in the zone, so it’s more about the rest of his arsenal. He currently is deploying a slower, vertical curveball that I’m not in love with, so hopefully he can lean more on his slider (which he has made much horizontal) and slider, which are each much better offerings.
I’m concerned by Spencer Howard’s 72% fastball usage, in addition to the fact he has yet to pitch five innings in a start this season. It’s a really strong fastball, but it will be interesting to see how the pitch mix changes in the future to potentially go deeper into games. The same can be said about Keegan Akin, though at least he’s a fastball-changeup lefty with slightly less overall need for the breaking ball.
Royals, Rangers, and Tigers All Have Very Fascinating Bullpens
It’s hard to find someone who obsesses over under-the-radar relievers like I do, but here we are. This week, we find ourselves with three rebuilding American League teams that might have pieces to build upon in their bullpen.
Lefties who throw 97 MPH don’t grow on trees, which immediately drew me to Jake Brentz of the Royals. The 26-year-old posted excellent strikeout numbers in the minors, and that has carried over (25.5% K rate) in 22.2 innings. However, so has his poor command (15.7%), which has prevented him from playing a more meaningful role. Still, the 26-year-old’s fastball (27.7% whiff) and slider (43.6% whiff, 4 inches more drop than average) is an excellent combination, and he’ll be someone I’m closely monitoring. The same goes for 24-year-old Carlos Hernandez. Sadly, the right-hander was just sent down, but he added 2 MPH to both his fastball and sinker and is still a relative unknown with little track record above Single-A, so the Royals might have something here if they utilize him as more of a “bulk option”.
Traded from the Dodgers to the Rangers this offseason, Josh Sborz currently has a 2.27 FIP, 28.9% K rate, and 7.8% BB rate in 21.1 innings of relief this season. Not only was the 27-year-old dominant when in the minors, but his arsenal is absurd: all of his pitches generate 2 inches+ of more vertical movement than average. At the same time, Demarcus Evans has inferior command, but an absurd fastball that has earned elite scouting grades. Thus far, he is utilizing that fastball, cutter, and slider that all generate an exceptional amount of vertical movement, allowing him to thrive as a north/south pitcher. With the back-end of the Rangers’ bullpen being unsettled, keep an eye on them to start to get opportunities in high-leverage situations. If one of them can start accumulating saves, then their value suddenly becomes immense.
Michael Fulmer is a much more well-known reliever, but he’s been extremely fun to watch in Detroit. After failing to stick as a starter due to recent injuries, he has become a productive reliever (23.2% K, 6.6% BB) with an excellent slider, power sinker combination. Although he hasn’t been asked to consistently close games, he could be, and even then, he can work multiple innings based on his history as a starter and strong command. He’s definitely someone I’m looking to target in both redraft and dynasty leagues.
What’s The Deal With Tyler O’Neill?
What if I told you that there was a player currently who ranks in the 100th percentile in barrel% and the 99th percentile in sprint speed? Let me introduce you to the ever-so fascinating Tyler O’Neill.
Yes, it’s a small sample size, but O’Neill’s raw power (113.1 max EV) is certainly not in question, nor is his speed. Rather, it has been about putting those tools together. His career plate discipline numbers (6.1% BB, 34.1% K) are far from encouraging, as they have massively limited his on-base potential.
Although O’Neill is chasing (29.1%) and whiffing (38.1%) more than he did in the shortened 2020 season, he’s also been less passive (74.1% zone swing), and the net greater increase in his zone swing rate compared to his chase rate indicates improved plate discipline. Add in a much better deviation of contact trajectory, and it’s easy to see where the power is coming from. In the future, O’Neill will see much less pitches in the zone (51.3%). Still, that will allow for his walk rate to increase, and it’s clear that his approach (more swings on the inner half, avoid swinging up and away), caters much more with his bat path. There are few players that will more interesting to watch for the rest of the year in terms of identifying his true talent level than him.
Aces Gone Wild, One Gone Bad
Heading into the year, there were three starting pitchers on a clear tier of their own: Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, and Shane Bieber. From there, the way the rest of the starting pitchers ranked became incredibly interchangeable.
However, there are some clear aces started to separate themselves. Many question Brandon Woodruff’s ability to last deep into games, but he’s averaging 6.45 innings per start, hasn’t lost any effectiveness, and throws five pitches over 10% of the time. Add in the fact he benefits from playing in the NL Central, and I’m not sure there is a non tier-one pitcher I’d rather have than them.
Kevin Gausman has allowed four runs in his last 51 innings pitched. Well, I think it’s safe to say that his “breakout” 2020 season was legitimate! Shifting to more splitters than traditional changeups this season, he has continued to optimize his pitch mix, and simply isn’t walking (5.9% BB) hitters. Now, he’s also handled the Dodgers (six shutout innings) while his fastball has been much more effective. Innings, strikeouts, control, and a great ballpark for pitchers in San Francisco make him a potential top-ten fantasy pitcher right now, though you’d wish he was already signed to a long-term deal with the Giants.
Furthermore, Zack Wheeler has finally finished his ascension into becoming an ace. Less sinkers, more fastballs, and a lot more sliders means he’s finally tailored his arsenal in the best way possible to miss bats, while he’s able to locate to all quadrants of the plate. He’s averaging 6.8 innings per start!
Then, on the opposite side of the spectrum, there is Blake Snell, who certainly isn’t eating innings. Although his strikeout success (32.1% K) is still there, he’s suddenly walking 14.2% of the batters he’s faced. Notably, hitters have stopped chasing his pitches (27.2%) the way they have in the past, which is a major issue given his style of pitching- just a 41.3% zone rate. Notably, his pitch coordinates suggest a lot more fastballs over the heart of the plate and a lot more hanging curveballs; not an ideal combination. Is there hope for a rebound in the future? The strikeouts make me optimistic, but I’d much rather side with pitchers who are going to at least accumulate more volume. We can quibble whether he’s worth starting in all matchups now (luckily, the Mets’ Triple-A team is his next opponent), and, at the very least, he’s a demonstration of what can go wrong when we chase efficiency over volume too much with our pitching targets.
Pitchers Taking a Step Forward
Since pitching is a much more independent action than hitting, development can be much less linear. Sometimes, it can take multiple seasons in the majors for a player to finally optimize his talents to be the best version of himself possible. Fortunately, that may be the case with these four pitchers:
Quietly, Logan Webb’s peripheral numbers (26.1% K, 8.2% BB) have been very impressive for the Giants this season. A lot of the credit can go to one of the most optimized pitch mixes I’ve seen: sinkers and sliders to righties, more 4-seam fastballs to lefties. We’ve known Webb had a great changeup, but he’s locating his slider well and having a lot of success with it, which has led to much more whiffs. I’m not saying he’ll continue to post a 56.6% whiff rate with that pitch, yet he now has four pitches and won’t be bothered by platoon splits the way some pitchers are. Add in his ballpark, and I’m all on board with the young righty’s progress.
Dylan Cease has faced major expectations since being named the minor-league pitcher of the year, but his early transition to the majors was shaky. Luckily for the White Sox, he’s filled a major void for them at the back of their rotation. The 25-year-old’s fastball suddenly has a lot more ride (two extra inches of vertical movement), and that has drastically improved its effectiveness (29% whiff). His slider has always been elite, but add in that he now he has confidence in his fastball to live much more in the zone (46.7%)? This breakout looks legitimate.
Yusei Kikuchi is similar to Cease in that he wants to succeed with a vertical fastball up in the zone. After a poor 2019 campaign, the Mariners’ lefty made tremendous changes to his pitch mix, adding in a cutter that allowed him to throw his fastball and slider much less. However, his command of the new arsenal prevented any improvement from showing. On the bright side, it was reasonable to expect that to improve this year, and that’s exactly what has happened; his average pitch height of the fastball has increased 0.3 feet, his changeup and slider have been rightfully thrown down in the zone. The result? Him making good on the breakout potential he showcased in 2020.
Sticking in Seattle, Justin Dunn is someone that they’ve been waiting to solidify his spot in the rotation since acquiring him in the infamous Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade. Well, it might just be happening. The 25-year-old has allowed just four earned runs and has posted a 21-7 K-BB ratio in 16.3 innings during his last three starts, and has the best overall ratios of his young career. He’s completely ditched his changeup in favor of two distinct breaking balls, is throwing much in the zone (50.9%), and in inducing much more chases (25.7%). With how balanced he is between his vertical slider and horizontal curveball, that isn’t surprising. Although his curveball plays much better versus righties, he’s at least a streaming option against right-heavy lineups, but could be more than that as someone who has multiple productive minor-league seasons to back up potential optimism.
Buy-Low Hitters Emerging
The Braves have been underperforming this season, and a majority of that is due to poor batting average luck. Ozzie Albies is walking more and striking out less, so I’d assume he hits for a much higher batting average over time, and the same goes for Freddie Freeman. Meanwhile, Eugenio Suarez has improved in recent years, while Jonathan India has strong plate discipline numbers, so the Reds’ middle infield may be a source of value as well.
My favorite buy-low hitter right now has to be Tommy Pham. An improved barrel rate (12.4%) and incredible plate discipline (15.6% chase) doesn’t translate to a .310 wOBA, and the Padres have moved him to the top of the lineup. With his on-base skills, you’re talking about him contributing greatly to on-base percentage, stolen bases, runs scored, and with enough power, which is perfect for those who want to “win-now” in dynasty without sacrificing much in the way of future assets. The same can be said about Charlie Blackmon, who not only plays in Colorado, but is chasing less with more contacts and barrels. Although both of these players are well over 30, that might lead to the perception of them being “players on the decline”, which could greatly limit their perceived value. If so, you competitive teams should look to capitalize in order to upgrade their rosters.
Then, there’s Christian Yelich. To some, the Brewers’ star outfielder may be continuing his non-elite 2020, with just a .343 wOBA. However, I remain very optimistic. A major issue last season was his passive approach, as a 57.7% zone swing rate and 66.1% meatball rate surpassed his ability to hit for enough power. This season, though, he’s swinging at pitches in the zone right around his career norm, but his chase rate (16.7%) has remained elite. That improved plate discipline is very encouraging, though it’s his power that we’re wondering about. Chalk that up to a decreased barrel rate (7.7%), correlating with a great increase in the amount of ground balls (59%) he’s hitting. The cause for this? That’s unclear, though he is seeing fewer fastballs (50.6%), and he’s really struggled to lift breaking balls (-9 average launch angle).. With significant more aggression, more contact, and more barrels since coming back from injury, I see a rebound in his future, though let’s not forget he still has a .398 on-base percentage.
Young Hitter Update: Power and Chases
The Twins are relying upon arguably their two top prospects in Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach to man the corner outfield spots for them, and both have filled in very well thus far. With a 116 max exit velocity reading this week, we now have a very a significant data point that correlates well with his cited raw power, and he’s also the one young hitter who isn’t chasing (24.9%)
That’s more on an issue for Alex Kirilloff (32.2%), Ryan Mountcastle (40.1%), and Jarred Kelenic (33.1%). The former two prospects are players my model has been lower on for their plate discipline struggles, and I remain pessimistic that they will get on-base enough at the MLB level. Kelenic, on the other hand, is only 21-years-old, so I see him progressing forward in a big way.
In other words, Kelenic will be fine, Larnach is really good, and we should perhaps be a bit tepid with our valuation of Kirilloff and Mountcastle. Hitters who chase at a very high rate are the types that I want to stay away from, as it’s a stable metric that is very important in terms of on-base floor and consistent power production. It’d be a poor idea not to take that, in addition the fact that this has been an issue for them in the past, into serious account.
Other Small Notes
Eric Lauer is now throwing a hard cutter instead of a slider with less fastballs, while his velocity was improved in his start on Wednesday. Meanwhile, upon being acquired from the Rays, Trevor Richards has gone away from his slider and has focused more on his changeup- his top option. Especially with Lauer starting against the Tigers on Tuesday, I think both of these Brewers pitchers will be on the rise.
The Diamondbacks are a very interesting team in terms of fantasy. Josh Rojas’ expected stats are likely doing him a disservice, as he’s a switch hitter with good plate discipline, even sprays, and his above-average whiff rate indicates his strikeouts will come down. Meanwhile, Pavin Smith has a very weird profile for a first baseman with great on-base skills and not great power, but his flexible bat path allows him to hit elevated fastballs- a skill not many have. Both are intriguing high-floor options that will serve as useful complementary pieces for you dynasty team.
After a slow start to the season, Giants’ shortstop prospect Marco Luciano had a huge week, raising his wRC+ to 132. You’d hope for better plate discipline numbers (6.6% BB, 22% K), but the elite power (.262 ISO) illustrates a very bright future for the young infielder and he is striking out much less than the beginning of the season.
It was strange that the Padres didn’t promote top pitching prospect MacKenzie Gore last season, and it was reported that he struggled with mechanics and command. Thus far, in four starts at Triple-A, his ratios (20.3% K, 12.7% BB) are worrisome. Is there something to note here, or just a poor start? This on top of the issues at the alternate site in 2020 aren’t encouraging, and, at the very least, speak to the overall volatility of pitching.
A reminder that with minor-league strikeout rates at all-time high, we have to adjust what is considered an ideal strikeout rate for both hitters and pitchers. For perspective, Luciano’s 22% strikeout is actually probably more encouraging than it is worrisome.