This is a follow up to the April 2020 article by the same name. Below, I revisit each question and see where we stand.
So, it turns out we were fortunate enough to get enough baseball to at least make a somewhat meaningful review of the most relevant prospects, and therefore an update to our 2021 inquiry is in order. A few of our subjects appeared in the show, to extremely disparate results. Some used their exposure at alt sites and instructs to solidify their hype. Yet others experienced a change of scenery and even a legal scare. Last year was a challenging, yet also rewarding year for all of us, our beloved prospects included. Let’s see how they fared.
1. Will Jasson Dominguez dominate in his first taste of pro ball?
2020 Update: Our favorite hyped son didn’t play any ball but still managed to dominate headlines…with his appearance? If you are reading this article, you are certain to have caught glimpses of the supposed 5-10 190-pound (Editor’s Note: We’ve heard second hand that he recently weighed in at 235) outfielder looking more like an SEC running back (more on this below), but not quite the oft-comped 6-1, 285-pound Aaron Donald. The official MLB twitter account then went on to fan the flames with comps to Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout and Bo Jackson in one tweet. I guess the MLB twitter guys saw the same pictures we did. We’ll finally find out this year whether Dominguez can do as much for real baseball as he has for the card collecting world.
2. Will CJ Abrams be more Francisco Lindor or Starling Marte?
2020 Update: CJ was definitely a riser in 2020, not that he had all that much room to grow. His performance at the alt site and instructs only served to solidify his potential star status, and despite all of San Diego’s high-profile trades, there was never even an inkling that they would move him. He very well may start in Double-A, but with the additions of Kim and Profar and the emergence of Cronenworth, there is no rush to advance him. If he dominates the upper levels as many expect, a 2022 debut is almost assured, and my money is on a Lindorian result.
3. Who will be ranked higher, Vaughn or Tork?
2020 Update: Spencer Torkelson essentially mirrored Abrams’ summer, although information and reports were scarcer. The limited reports that did come out were glowing, including descriptions of massive home runs and an imposing physique. It appears he was also worked out at third base with decent results. Tork is firmly entrenched in the top five of most, if not all, credible rankings, and is on track for a 2021 debut.
Ok, take what I just said and apply it to Andrew Vaughn, except that he now looks likely to debut at DH and will work mostly at 1B when he takes the field. Nonetheless, he worked out with the MLB team most of the year and received excellent reviews throughout the summer. Less athletic than Tork, and with a seemingly more limited ceiling, the nod clearly goes to Tork at this point, but Vaughn is still a top 10 prospect.
4. Which Tigers SP establishes himself as the Tiger King of the Hill?
2020 Update: We look to be on track to make good on this prediction, as both Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal made their debuts, with Skubal faring much better despite his stats not reflecting the solid underlying metrics. He flashed the strikeout rate we are hoping for and kept the walks in check, but got killed with home runs leading to an inflated ERA. Skubal looks to be firmly entrenched in the Tigers rotation for 2021.
Mize got a taste as well and was pretty much a disaster. In 28.1 innings he pitched to a 6.99 ERA and 1.48 WHIP with less than a K per inning. His stuff did look sharp at times, and he at least avoided injury, so he is still primed to win a spot in Detroit’s largely unimpressive rotation by mid-season.
Matt Manning didn’t get a call up, but that was likely never in the cards for him even if his season hadn’t ended prematurely with the dreaded forearm strain. Fortunately, reports are that it was minor and he is fully healed, and even developing a new pitch in time for the 2021 season. There is no reason to believe that a 2021 debut isn’t a likely result for Manning, but additional questions certainly have arisen due to the injury, and Manning will have to prove that he can stay healthy in order to reach is lofty potential.
5. Will Jeter Downs revitalize the rebuilding Red Sox and finally fill the hole left by Pedroia?
2020 Update: This one remains pretty much status quo. Downs didn’t get any MLB playing time in 2020, instead spending time at the alt site like most other top prospects. With information being limited, we can only assume that Downs made the most of his exposure to the MLB club and competition against the best of the Red Sox other prospects. Without any in-game competition and with the Sox addition of Kike Hernandez, it looks unlikely that Downs will be needed at the big league level in 2021. As such the original analysis holds true, and Down’s 2021 performance should lead to either a 2022 starting gig or a reevaluation of his overall level of talent.
6. Which international prospect that hasn’t appeared stateside will establish himself as the top dog?
2020 Update: No one in the prospect space suffered more than the international youngsters (other than those of us clamoring to see them), and we got very limited looks and information to really shake the rankings up too much. Aside from the aforementioned Dominguez sighting, we got nice reports on Erick Pena from Royals camp, although some evaluators are taking issue with his swing, and there are ongoing concerns about whether his larger physique might limit his peak speed and cost him a role in CF.
While Robert Puason was able to make it to A’s camp in 2020, which most assuredly helped advance his game, guys like Maximo Acosta and Luis Rodriguez never made it to the states in 2020, and we are left waiting for their stateside debuts. Noelvi Marte also spent time at his club’s alt camp and reports were that he focused on fundamentals, really trying to improve his defense and approach at the plate, and he apparently impressed his older competitors with his natural power, speed and overall abilities. He’s still on track to present a five-tool package, and he clearly leads the group on the rankings lists by a comfortable margin. A dude who has to be added to this group is Milwaukee’s Hedbert Perez, who shined at instructs and is generating plenty of buzz with his own five-tool skill set. 2021 will be an exciting time for these budding international stars to finally shine.
7. Can the next round of top SP prospects stay healthy?
2020 Update: Ah, some juicy updates for this one. We have to start with Sixto Sanchez, of course, who took the league by storm with a dazzling 39-inning debut, at times looking utterly dominant. His season was not without its warts, however, and it remains to be seen whether he can produce a strikeout rate commensurate with his 2021 ADP which now hovers around 130 (roughly the 40th SP off the board).
We can add Ian Anderson to this mix as well, as he outshined even Sixto to become the top pitching prospect to debut in 2020. His success is reflected in his ADP as well, which is now inside the top 100. Nate Pearson and Spencer Howard had more inauspicious debuts, both with ERAs and WHIPs north of 5.00 and 1.50 respectively, and both missing time with injuries. Fortunately, Pearson at least had two excellent outings, and Howard flashed plus stuff at times, and both figure to get extended looks in 2021, with Pearson having the better line to a full starter’s workload.
Forrest Whitley wasn’t close but is said to now be healthy and primed for a 2021 post-hype breakout (Editor’s Note: Though former top Astros official Kevin Goldstein said he wouldn’t be surprised if Whitley never pitched an inning in MLB), and Michael Kopech opted out of the 2020 season but all signs point to a starting role at the outset of 2021 assuming he has a good spring training. Luis Patiño is the wildcard here, as he was perhaps the highest profile prospect traded during 2020, heading to the Rays in the Blake Snell deal. His 2020 results weren’t good either, but he’s only 21 years old and will take advantage of the Rays’ excellent farm system to hone his skills in anticipation of some role with the big club in 2021. Don’t be scared off by the sub-par results, he still has a starter’s skillset and it’s only a matter of time before he puts it all together. Kopech definitely has some catching up to do to hit this prediction, but I believe in the skills and the team context just keeps getting better as the White Sox added Liam Hendriks to lockdown what should be a good number of wins in a meager AL Central. If Kopech earns a starting role for any significant stretch of time in 2021 there’s no reason he can’t match Sixto and Anderson’s 2020 success.
8. Will Oneil Cruz hit enough to get to his enormous power potential, and will he stick at SS?
2020 Update: Unfortunately, Cruz made more headlines off the field than on, in what likely was baseball’s most tragic and mysterious offseason incident. In case you were living under a prospect rock in 2020, you know that Cruz was involved in a fatal traffic accident that left three motorcycle riders (on the same motorcycle, which is rumored to have been operating without lights in the middle of the night when Cruz struck them with his vehicle) dead and Cruz arrested for vehicular homicide in his native Dominican Republic. At first there were reports that Cruz may have been intoxicated at the time of the crash, but that now does not appear to be the case, and it looks like this incident is unlikely to derail his promising career. In fact, we were recently graced with video of an effortless opposite field home run from Cruz’s time in the LIDOM Dominican professional league in January.
Assuming his legal issue is resolved without jail time, Cruz appears on track to continue mashing and has an outside shot to debut in 2021, but 2022 may be more realistic and a move to the outfield still seems likely.
9. Can one of the Rays speedsters separate himself enough to earn a starting role and become a viable SB source?
2020 Update: Not much to report here as none of these guys got any big league playing time or did anything to significantly set themselves apart over the summer. Vidal Brujan acclimated quite well in the LIDOM league, continuing to show strong OBP skills (.394) to go along with 8 steals. We can rest assured he will be able to get on base and wreak havoc on the basepaths when he does when he finally gets the call, but the question will remain as to his ultimate power output and playing time.
Xavier Edwards continues to get solid marks for his hit tool, speed, defense and make up, and still ranks in the top 100 of most lists. He certainly could push for MLB playing time in 2021 if injuries strike, but serious doubts persist about his power, which may actually be a zero. In fact, he had the lowest Estimated Fly Ball distance in 2019 per Minor Graphs. He’s really going to have to excel in those other areas to carve out meaningful playing time and could be the modern day Chone Figgins.
Greg Jones’ summer was a wash, as he was invited to the alt site but suffered a minor injury and never really got going. This season will provide an opportunity to show off the skillset and help us determine his place in the Rays’ MI pecking order in this exceedingly deep system, although Jones may be the most likely candidate to move to the grass.
10. Can any of the following polarizing MLB-ready prospects find another level and become above-average regulars?
2020 Update: Last year provided a decent amount of relevant insight into this inquiry, with Ke’Bryan Hayes clearly being the standout and exceeding expectations, and Carter Kieboom struggling as expected. Nick Madrigal performed well, hitting .340 with a .376 OBP but only 2 steals over 109 AB (and not a single barreled ball). He will have to up his game on the basepaths to be considered a win in this analysis, though he seems assured of a fulltime role and should produce in at least two categories, with upside for more runs if he can ascend from his current role in the 9th spot in the White Sox potent lineup.
Cristian Pache also got a cup of coffee, in the playoff no less! I was pleasantly surprised by the quality of Pache’s at bats, as he showed an ability to take a walk and even hit a postseason home run. For what it’s worth, he looked the part too, oozing natural athleticism and not looking intimidated despite playing in a high profile lineup on baseball’s biggest stage. The sky is the limit for Pache if he continues trending in this direction, and he should be able to secure a starting role in Atlanta in 2021, although the recent Ozuna re-signing may complicate things.
Kieboom was the biggest disappointment of this group, really looking lost in his 122 AB, finishing with a .202 AVG, 0 HR and a 27 K%. There was some reason for optimism, however, evidenced by his 13.9 BB% and the Nationals at least saying the right things regarding his status as their future third base. At some point, though, he’s going to have to actually hit to stay relevant.
Look for Evan White to rebound and improve in 2021, and Nolan Jones should debut now that Cleveland is officially in rebuild mode. This group still present a tremendous amount of potential, and Hayes’ initial success is a good indicator that superior natural skills ultimately can win out over time even when significant questions exist. And with that, we are ready for 2021 to provide the answers to these intriguing prospect questions.