Identifying Tiers within our 2021 FYPD List

I don’t think it’s any secret that the annual MLB draft is by far my favorite event of the year. Well outside the McDonald’s monopoly game but McMillions ruined that (thanks HBO for stealing my childhood).

Anyway, as my content has moved away from fantasy and more toward straightforward evaluation I’ve started to think about my FYPD approach differently. For years we’ve tried to perfect the ranking, listing the best players from one to x-number. While useful, it's rich in biased thought and lean on context. There’s far more nuance within rankings than we like to admit. Tiers within tiers so to speak. 

For FYPD drafts specifically you’re tasked with not only weighing hitting versus pitching but also more experienced and further developed college talents against their less experienced prep counterparts. It’s a system setup for failure and rankings that can make you look bad (cough cough Kikuchi anyone?). Beyond that, when international talents are added into the mix it further complicates matters. Even within that genre there are sub-genres of true teenage Latin players versus seasoned Asian imports. 

All this to say, there’s got to be a better way to look at all this. A way that balances value within the rankings and provides context on those aforementioned tiers within tiers. Below is an aid to our 2020 First Year Player Draft Rankings for dynasty leagues. As my approach and perspective has changed, I look at players less and less within a numerical order but within a series of buckets. The first based on true talent and potential role. These roles are defined within our scouting primer for our 2021 Prospect Rankings. Another bucket is our Player Archetypes which you can find in the post itself. In other words what type of a player is he? Does he provide power and speed? Is he a high-level hit tool player with supporting skills but limited power? Is he a power pitcher? A risky high school arm?

Our ultimate goal is to define first the talent and second the talent type. Or the inverse, what type of a player is he and how good is he at the particular role? By applying these two types of contextual labels to players within our rankings it allows you to see clearly defined tiers and then identify the skill types that fit your flavor. This article focuses strictly on the MLB draft players from 2020. Once the International window opens and we have better information on the Latin market we will update. We have, however, ranked the Hispanic players on our list. 

TALENT ROLES 

Tier 1 A: College Superstars Hitters (60+)

Spencer Torkelson
Austin Martin 
Nick Gonzales
Heston Kjerstad 
Garrett Mitchell

Tier 1 A: College Superstars Pitchers (60+)

Max Meyer
Asa Lacy 
Emerson Hancock
Garrett Crochet

Tier 1 B: High School Superstars Hitters (60+)

Zac Veen 
Austin Hendrick 
Pete Crow-Armstrong 
Tyler Soderstrom
Robert Hassell III
Ed Howard 

Tier 1 B: High School Superstars Pitchers (60+)

Mick Abel
Nick Bitsko

Tier 2 A: College Stars Hitters (50+)

Austin Wells
Jordan Nwogu
Aaron Sabato
Patrick Bailey 
Justin Foscue

Tier 2 A: College Stars Pitchers (50+)

Bobby Miller
Reid Detmers 
Slade Cecconi
Cade Cavalli
Nick Swiney
Tanner Burns 
Bryce Jarvis

Tier 2 B: High School Stars Hitters (50+)

Carson Tucker
Nick Yorke
Coby Mayo
Isaiah Greene
Masyn Winn
Colt Keith

Tier 2 B: High School Stars Pitchers (50+)

Masyn Winn
Kyle Harrison

Tier 3 A: College Stars Hitters Lite (40+)

Daniel Cabrera 
Freddy Zamora
Jordan Westburg
Hudson Haskin
Nick Loftin 
Hayden Cantrelle
Casey Schmitt
Jimmy Glowenke
Dillon Dingler 
Jesse Franklin
Alerick Soularie
Gage Workman
Trevor Hauver 
Zack DeLoach
Casey Martin

Tier 3 A: College Stars Lite (40+)

Ian Seymour
Clayton Beeter
Logan Allen
Kyle Nicolas 
Landon Knack
Jared Shuster
Carmen Mlodzinski
Chris McMahon 
Burl Carraway
Cole Wilcox
CJ Van Eyk
JT Ginn

Tier 3 B: High School Stars Hitters Lite (40+)

Jordan Walker
Jake Vogel
David Calabrese
Petey Halpin
Blaze Jordan 
Milan Tolentino

Tier 3 B: High School Stars Lite (40+)

Ben Hernandez
Jared Kelley

Tier 4 A: College Stars Hitters With Questions (30+)

Zach Daniels
Kaden Polcovich
Zavier Warren
Joey Wiemer
Zach Britton 
Baron Radcliff
Tyler Gentry
Anthony Servideo
Alika Williams

Tier 4 A: College Arms With Questions (30+)

Zach McCambley
Cole Henry
Connor Phillips
Christian Roa
Trent Palmer
Tyler Brown
Hunter Burkhart
Jake Eder 

Tier 4 B: High School Stars Hitters Lotto Tickets (30+)

MacKenzie Wainwright 
A.J. Vukovich 
Owen Cassie
Werner Blakley
Evan Carter
Drew Romo

Tier 4 B: High School Lotto Ticket Arms (30+)

Justin Lange
Alex Santos 
Dax Fulton 
Tink Hence

Tier 5 A: Low Upside College Hitters (30)

Alec Burleson
Michael Guldberg 
Tyler Keenan
Trei Cruz