A couple of weeks back we proudly released our Top 500 Fantasy Prospects Rankings. You’d think that between me, Ralph and Matt we’d have just about every prospect we like on there, but alas, personal preferences exist!
There were several prospects each of us ranked inside our personal 500 that did not make the overall list because the other two didn’t rank said player. Now, keep in mind our Top 500 is going to be an iterative list. The names you’ll see in this post might very well find their way into the list at some point. But with no minor league baseball this year, it’s hard to see a reason they’d jump onto Ralph and Matt’s list unless I bug them to no end.
Here are three of my favorite names along with some extra tidbits of how many MiLB should be rostered in a league to consider owning them.
Stuart Fairchild, OF (CIN)
Top 30 Ranking: #8
Eddy Top 500: #240
Minimum Roster Size To Own: 300
Fairchild was by far the guy I had ranked the highest that didn’t make the list. One thing to confess is that I have a bias toward players that are in the upper levels and performing. If you haven’t noticed, there’s some magic water in Double-A Chattanooga as almost every batter that passes through there unlocks newfound plate discipline and their performance goes up. Fairchild was no exception. He went from a 8.9 BB%, 21.4 K% in High-A in 2019 to 10.6 BB%, 12.8 K% in Double-A.
There’s no fresh Fairchild video for me to corroborate, but Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs reports that he added a small leg kick to his load which not only helps with timing but often brings some extra power with it. Look at his estimated flyball distance last year and how it took off.
He’s a little more pull heavy than I like to see in a prospect (54%), but at the same time that lets him lean into the power more. Fairchild entered 2019 with a “less than the sum of his parts” outlook with no standout tool. A short, compact stroke with some modest power gave him a utility man future. After 2019, I’m in the camp that he has a shot at a 20-home run, .270/.340/.450 profile.
He’s Rule 5 eligible at the end of this year so the Reds will either put him on their 40-man or likely see him drafted by another team. I’m rooting for the Reds to keep him but their outfield is hard to crack. It’s not an unlikely scenario that Fairchild sees 300+ PA next season for a below average team. It’s these types of players I love to gamble on because any positive return on value just feels like found money.
Sam Carlson, RHP (SEA)
Top 30 Ranking: #15
Eddy Top 500: #272
Minimum Roster Size To Own: 350
Officially, Carlson has three professional innings under his belt and they came all the way back in 2017 in the AZL. The former second round draft pick felt a twinge in his elbow and before long he went under the knife. He threw live BP to hitters this past spring in what was an emotional moment for him and the team.
Carlson is a penny stock in the world of dynasty baseball. This is the guy you pick up in deep leagues and let him marinate until he pops into game action with a plus fastball with sink and run, advanced command, a strong changeup, a potential average loopy breaker and he flies up 200 spots on people’s lists. Now, that’s not to say all that’s going to happen. But those are the tools he was working with before going down.
My affinity for Carlson has long been documented. Still just 21 years old, he’s behind the eight ball in development but not by such a wide margin. In addition, we’re seeing the seeds of the future in Seattle right now and if he returns in 2021 to MiLB with showing strong, he’s going to move fast so that they use his bullets in the bigs. We’re likely looking at a late 2022 debut here. Patience, this one could pay off big.
Yoendrys Gomez, RHP (NYY)
Top 30 Rankings: #9
Eddy Top 500: #350
Minimum Roster Size To Own: 350
I should probably be able to write “Yankees RHP” and move on to the next guy because that’s all the reasoning you need. The Yanks have proven one of the best teams in baseball to develop right-handers. Deivi Garcia, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Clarke Schmidt, Miguel Yajure and Roansy Contreras are just a few names that each have their own attractive qualities.
Gomez burst onto the Yankees org last year after some newfound speed which found him sitting 94-95 in games. He started 12 games last year split evenly between Appy League and Sally League and finished with a solid 21 K% and average 8 BB%. Like many pinstriped righties he’s a North-South pitcher, using his new fastball to challenge hitters up top and then get some over-the-top swings on his curveball. Like Carlson, he’s got a good frame to continue packing muscle on.
There’s plenty of development left for Gomez. He needs his changeup to come along to ensure he doesn’t fall victim to platoon splits. His arm action is too long and I wonder if he doesn’t benefit from a shorter one to mask his lack of a third pitch right now. He’ll be 21 at the start of MiLB next year where they’ll hopefully challenge him and send him to the FSL. The Yanks are always one team that draw me in with their pitchers and they’re doing it again with Gomez with the new velo.
Honorable mentions: Ka’ai Tom, Nick Heath, Jhonkesky Noel, Jordan Diaz