We have a few new names and shifts in the rankings this week. With some of the best arms of 2020 getting roughed up a bit (Gerrit Cole, Trevor Bauer, Max Scherzer, etc), and multiple rookies coming on to the scene (for better or worse), there was bound to be some movement.
I want to start things off by welcoming Sixto Sanchez of the Miami Marlins to the top 100 party. Not only does he have a triple digit fastball, but his 70-grade changeup and solid slider were on full display in his scoreless 7 inning, 10 K outing against the Rays on Friday. Sanchez works fast, has an electric arsenal, and is quite frankly must-see TV at the moment:
Its no surprise with that velocity and movement that we have seen hitters actually laugh during at bats. Why do they laugh? Honestly, when he locates his pitches, his stuff isn't fair.
Starter Report:
Trevor Bauer- Cincinnati Reds (#3):
Bauer has had a rough time over his last two starts (11.2 IP 11H 7ER 13K 4BB combined), though he finds himself moving up from 4 to 3 in this week’s rankings. Why is that? Bauer’s stuff has not regressed over the last couple of starts as his statistics would suggest. Fastball velocity (and RPM - important to watch with Bauer) have remained the same, and his job of locating has stuck to the 2020 status quo for Bauer. He has just been beat on a few pitches. Bauer, due to his fastball profile in particular (mid 90s velocity, sky high RPM) can have a tendency to give up home runs. This is a double-edged sword however, as the fastball, and emphasis arsenal wide on spin rates is what makes it play special as a whole. As an owner of Bauer in any league, don’t expect him to struggle. Just know that these starts where he gives up a couple of bombs while being otherwise dominant will happen.
Oh and another note on Bauer: he broke a strikeout record and won the Budweiser strikeout challenge… Cheers Trevor
Mike Clevinger- Cleveland Indians (#17):
The aforementioned Bauer’s best bud returned strong from his 12-day “time out” (breached Covid-19 protocol) with a solid 6 inning, 2 run victory against the first place Twins on Wednesday. From a stuff standpoint, Clevinger didn't skip a beat; he looked like he hadn't missed time at all, particularly where his breaking ball was concerned. Analytically, the pitch actually improved- with less vertical break (ideal for slider), and a little additional run (compared to his pre break starts- down almost 4 inches from 2019), the pitch played better in his first start back. This was a major plus to see as a fantasy owner. It is worth noting that he could be on the trade block this week (As a result of his actions prior to the his being sent to the Cleveland alternate site). If you own Clevinger keep an eye out on where he ends up, as win-loss numbers could change greatly if he were to go to a fringe playoff team in need of pitching.
Lucas Giolito- Chicago White Sox (#20):
How could we have a starting pitcher update without mentioning the Giolito no-hitter on Tuesday. Giolito no hit the Pirates, walking one and striking out 13 in the process. While this is obviously a fantastic achievement, it was very important from a fantasy perspective as well. Prior to his start on Tuesday, Giolito had been having a very up and down season, flashing ace stuff on about half of his starts, the others being very forgettable. Tuesday’s no hitter was both his second scoreless appearance in a row, and his second consecutive 13 strikeout performance as well. While fantasy owners wont be able to count on 13 strikeouts every time out, things are looking up for Giolito.
Zach Davies- San Diego Padres (#30):
Davies is one of our biggest risers this week after another solid start against the Rockies on Thursday. Davies has now won five games this year, putting him with elite company near the top of the wins leaderboard. While he wont give fantasy owners massive point totals on Ks alone, he gives up very few runs (2 ER over his last 2 starts- 13.2 IP). This sees him going deep into games all the time (8IP vs Houston, 7vs LAD, etc). Davies is a guy that will give you a quality start almost every time out; As a fantasy owner he may be a guy worth trading for a high caliber (and risk), high strikeout kind of arm if your team has the space to take such a risk. If not, he continues to prove that he is a valuable asset, and is pushing hard toward the “must own” category.
Pablo Lopez- Miami Marlins (#33):
Lopez might be the most underrated pitcher in all of baseball. After a loss to Tampa on Saturday, Lopez has now allowed only eight earned runs in six starts this year (34.1 IP). Not only has Lopez been dominant, but his stuff has gotten better start by start as well. His out pitch, the changeup, has continued to be effective in all counts (particularly late), and his maximum fastball velocity jumped up from 95 to 97 on Saturday (He touched 97 late into the start, which is key for future projections). Lopez reminds me a lot of Zac Gallen, as you know what you are getting every time with him- around 5 K, 6-7 innings pitched, and 3 runs or under. If that isn’t a rotation staple then I don't know what is.
Zac Gallen- Arizona Diamondbacks (#29):
Speaking of Gallen, he continued his streak of three or fewer runs again, giving up 2 over 13.1 innings pitched, striking out 13 in the process (2 starts this week). There isn’t much to say when evaluating Gallen, as his consistency is second to none in the league. As a fantasy owner, I feel it might be a good time to actually look to trade up with him- as what he is doing right now is probably what you should probably expect long term; I don’t think there is a higher ceiling. Due to how consistent he is, owners may be able to get a less consistent, higher point-producing arm (Trevor Bauer with 1 more rough start?) if shopped correctly. While I am throwing this out there for aggressive fantasy owners, Gallen on the roster gives you one less thing to worry about (he will be good every time out there), and he is obviously a guy trending towards acedom.
Matthew Boyd- Detroit Tigers (#98):
This may be the end of the road for Boyd on the top 100 list. While his last start (6IP 4H 2ER 6K 0BB) showed that he may have turned a corner, I am still not ready to hop back on the Boyd bandwagon. His strikeout numbers have been very reminiscent of his solid 2019 season, though he has left way too many pitches over the plate and has struggles mightily in making his pitches. Prior to the start of this 60-game season, he was constantly mentioned in trade rumors; a trade for Boyd is still possible, though due to his struggles a deal is far less likely to happen. If you are an owner in a large league (12+ teams), it is probably still worth holding onto him in case of a turnaround or trade; in any league smaller than that, I would sell or outright drop.