Long week of fantasy turmoil? Time to cut the crap!
Potential pickups will be separated into three buckets using Fantrax ownership statistics
20-30% owned players should be available in 12-team mixed leagues
10-20% owned players should be available in 15-team mixed leagues
0-10% owned players should be available in deep dynasty formats and AL or NL-only leagues.
This next part is crucial. You should pick up players based on how they fit your roster, not based on a preference list. “Sunk cost fallacy” can be costly in fantasy baseball, so churn your roster of those underperforming players and take a shot at one that might be having a breakout season. Also, you need to monitor your standings in specific categories to see if those stats available in the free agent pool. Often times these are stolen bases and saves, but hitters moving up the batting order can help accumulate stats, pitchers that are moving into the rotation can help accumulate innings and drive down ratios if they are performing well.
Ok time to cut the crap.
12 TEAM Mixed (20-30% Owned)
Taylor Williams - RP - SEA (30% Owned)
He locked down his 5th save of the season yesterday. His slider is a Big League offering, with a 55% whiff rate so far this season. And he’s now throwing it more than his four seam fastball, with solid results. He can be a little adventurous at times, but if you’re chasing saves he’s a good guy to add this week.
Jesus Sanchez - OF - MIA (29% Owned)
Eddy Almaguer’s full breakdown of Sanchez’s Big League Debut can be found here. For fantasy purposes, Eddy sums him up nicely:
“As of this publishing the Marlins haven’t signaled their intentions with Sanchez. In the intro I mentioned the outfield struggles so there’s a chance he carves out everyday AB if he starts strong. Right now I’d take a flier in 15-team leagues and deeper and certainly NL-only leagues. In leagues shallower than that I’d wait and see. Be wary in OBP leagues.”
Dane Dunning - SP - CHW (27% Owned)
Dunning got shuttled down to the alternate site but it was just a mechanism to keep him in line with his throwing schedule. He should be in line to start again for a surging White Sox club on August 30. He posted a 7:1 K:BB ratio in 4.1 innings in his debut, with his curveball looking especially good. Worth a stream if he starts on 8/30 against the Royals.
Alex Young - SP - ARI (25% Owned)
He’s a lefty with an interesting 5-pitch mix who got a start against Oakland on Wednesday. One thing I’ve been trying to look at with pitchers this season is their fastball velo chart. My premise is that a pitcher with fastball velocities trending upward over his last few appearances might be displaying a ‘hot hand’ making him worth a stream. Here’s Young’s cutter velo in 2019 and 2020, courtesy of FanGraphs:
You can see that he’s throwing the cutter harder in 2020 vs 2019. And in his last appearance, his velocity stayed up with the ‘tail’ of lower velo cutters thrown also bumped up, giving him a tighter distribution around his average velocity in that start. I see these items as a sign Young is feeling healthy, and he’s worth a small bid if you’re looking for a pitcher to potentially stream this week.
Raimel Tapia - OF - COL (24% Owned)
The Rockies, looking for a spark, have batted Tapia in the leadoff spot in each of the last three contests. He’s an interesting steals play for the remainder of the season. His xBA is .255 but he’s also taking walks at a 15% clip. So he’s getting on base, and then he’s stealing bags with his 87th percentile sprint speed when aboard. He doesn’t lift the ball much, and doesn’t hit it very hard, so he won’t help you if you’re hurting for home runs. But for AVG/OBP/SBs/Runs he’s a worthy add this weekend.
Devin Williams - RP - MIL (21% Owned)
Jason Kamlowsky broke down Williams today in his Top 100 Relievers update:
“If I told you Milwaukee has a reliever who is averaging 18.6 K/9, you would probably say his name was Josh Hader. You would also be incorrect. Devin Williams has been straight fire so far out of the Milwaukee bullpen racking up 20 strikeouts in 9.2 innings but there is more:
XBA: .115
XSLG: .253
XWOBA: .232
xERA: 2.11
That, my friends, makes Williams arguably the most dominant relief arm in baseball. It is due to my own blind loyalty to save opportunities that I haven’t had him on my radar but he has been too good to ignore. He makes his top-100 debut this week and I will be trying to spend the FAAB others will be spending on Matt Barnes to acquire Williams at a fraction of the cost.”
15 TEAM Mixed (10-20% Owned)
Tyler Rogers - RP - SFG (18% Owned)
Dude has been SUPREMELY unlucky in 2020, as evidenced by his 7.07 ERA relative to his 3.30 FIP. He’s a submariner that’s super stingy with with the free passes (3.1% BB-rate in 2020). His issue this season has been location, allowing hitters to attack his stuff on a bat path allowing for more elevation than in 2019. But when he’s on, he’s tough to hit and batters pound his stuff into the ground. His ERA could plummet during the remainder of the season, and that would work him back into the saves conversation in San Francisco’s closing committee.
Brad Miller - 3B - STL (18% Owned)
Sneaky play for some slugging and compiling stats for the rest of the season. Miller has slid up to 5th in the Cardinals order and has 1 appearance at SS as well. Philthy Projections didn’t love him (.738 OPS), but FanGraphs ZiPS is much more bullish, calling for a .346 wOBA in 2020. If nothing else, he made the Cardinals fan base really happy with this performance:
DEEP DYNASTY/ONLY FORMATS (0-10% Owned)
Ryan Jeffers - C - MIN (10% Owned)
With Mitch Garver on the shelf, Jeffers gets some playing time behind the dish for the Twins. Jeffers, 22, is a bat-first catcher that flashes the ability to get on base and also hit for some pop. He should be owned in deep, two catcher formats.
Lucas Sims - RP - CIN (10% OWNED)
Sims is excelling as a high leverage reliever so far in 2020. He’s posted a 39% K-rate and a 4:1 K:BB ratio on the season so far. His Statcast page is a thing of beauty at the moment. Moving to relief has allowed him to ditch the secondaries that weren’t working for him. He’s now basically 50/50 fastball/curveball. And the curve is gross, getting hitters flailing right now with a 59.3% whiff rate.
Phil Gosselin - OF - PHI (9% Owned)
This 31 year-old journeyman has a 179 wRC+ so far in 2020. He’s still quite underowned at 9% ownership rate. In deep leagues, he’s been a great glue/bench type guy that you can rotate in your OF and UT slots when he’s in the lineup.
Pete Fairbanks - RP - TBR (6% Owned)
Fairbanks might scrape together some wins and/or saves with the Rays pitching staff falling apart like British divisions on the Somme in 1916. His fastball sitting at 97 mph and generating whiffs 35% of the time is a mega weapon. Combined with a slider that comes in almost precisely 10 mph lower and generating big whiffs as well, and this looks like a closer to me.
Cedric Mullins - OF - BAL (5% Owned)
Cedric Mullins was a former breakout prospect before scuffling during brief MLB looks in 2018 and 2019. Now Austin Hays is hurt, so Mullins has played CF for the Orioles in 7 straight games, with a look at the leadoff slot today. He’s worth a look in deep leagues, especially if you’re in need of some steals.
Taylor Jones - 1B - HOU (5% Owned)
Jones hit a line drive garbage time homer against the Padres on Saturday, so he’s getting a little publicity. The hulking right-handed hitter had a bit of an under the radar Triple-A breakout last year, posting a .388 OBP and .501 SLG. He’s worth a speculative add to see if the breakout keeps rolling.
Pat Valaika - 1B/2B/SS - BAL (3% Owned)
Utility man should be able to fill that exact same role for a deep league fantasy team. Started in 17 games for Baltimore so far this season, and he’s worked his way up to the 5th slot in the order recently. He’s +200 points in rolling xwOBA over his last 50 PAs. Cheap pickup if your looking to plug some holes in your squad.