These are projections for hitting prospects in the Philthy Projections for the 2020 season only. These are hitters that the Philthy Projection method thinks will have the skills to contribute to standard 15-team redraft leagues in 2020. Qualifiers are that the player is at or before his age 25 season, is still rookie eligible, and is listed on the FanGraphs Roster Resource team depth chart as projecting to be on the club’s active roster this season.
Brief write-ups on each player with a downloadable table of projections listed below the writeups:
Luis Robert - OF - White Sox
“La Pantera” has spent Summer Camp showing everyone why he deserves to be the team’s starting center fielder. He’s displayed all five tools against his big league teammates since baseball has returned in early July. His challenge will be facing an inordinate amount of breaking pitches in his first taste of MLB pitching. In 2019, his teammate Eloy Jimenez saw 38.9% breaking balls. Luis Robert might see even more this year, as he’s vulnerable against them and doesn’t always diagnose pitches well. That being said, he also has absurd bat speed, strong twitchy wrists, and the determination to work through his struggles. He’s the leading candidate for AL Rookie of the Year in 2020.
Austin Hays - OF - Orioles
Austin Hays is a bit of a forgotten prospect due to the injury issues he’s dealt with in his career thus far. But he was the first prospect from the 2016 draft class to make the big leagues for a reason. For redraft leagues, he gives you a nice power/speed combo to work around. The Philthy Projections also think he’s going to hit for a solid batting average due to his strong BABIP traits. And playing time shouldn’t be an issue either, as no one in Baltimore’s outfield is in line to take reps away from him. Don’t be surprised if he’s the top earning rookie for fantasy baseball in 2020.
Carter Kieboom - 3B - Nationals
Nationals’ manager Davey Martinez has come out and named Carter Kieboom as the team’s starting third baseman to start the season. He struggled with breaking balls and offspeed stuff in his brief MLB debut in 2019. However, he also managed to hit the ball hard when he made contact, posting an xwOBAcon of .419 (MLB average last season was .371). He’s always been lauded for his hit tool, so there’s a good chance he hits the ground running with the worry of playing for a job off his plate to start the season this year.
Gavin Lux - 2B - Dodgers
Gavin Lux arrived late to camp due to COVID-19 testing protocols. So the Dodgers decided to send him to their alternate training site to get more reps to start the season with. And the Dodgers roster has plenty of left-handed bats that can handle second base. So while there’s enough talent here for Lux to be a top contributor in redraft leagues for 2020, the playing time hurdle that comes with playing for the deepest organization in baseball might make it difficult for Lux to realize that upside.
Evan White - 1B - Mariners
My sleeper pick for AL Rookie of the Year should have the Mariners first base job all to himself for all of 2020. Evan White is a very athletic first baseman, who should frequently compete for gold glove awards at the spot. In fact, he can probably handle center field in a pinch. His power has been trending upward throughout his professional career, as he’s added more loft to his swing path. And finally, he’s fast enough to chip in a couple steals as well. He should be rostered in all 15-team leagues.
Joey Bart - C - Giants
When Buster Posey decided to opt out of playing in the 2020 season, a playing time path immediately opened up for Joey Bart behind the dish for the Giants. The club currently has non-roster invitees Rob Brantly and Tyler Heineman ahead of Bart on the depth chart. But I think that the team will fill the pull to give Bart regular reps at catcher at the MLB level to start learning the position. He’s got plus raw power and the ability to cover the whole strike zone. His challenge this year will be learning to deal with the rigors of being an everyday MLB catcher along with getting his first dose of MLB breaking balls.
Sam Hilliard - 1B/OF - Rockies
Who knows what machinations the Rockies will employ when deciding playing time in 2020. However, it appears that, for now, Sam Hilliard has the inside line on the left-field job for the shortened season. He’s always had a productive bat in the minor leagues despite his propensity for swing-and-miss. This is because he excels at making hard contact, which can cover up a lot of warts. I would not be surprised to see Hilliard hit double-digit homers this season. He’s also a big stolen-base threat; he went 24-for-29 in stolen base attempts across all levels in 2019.
He’s just a freakishly good athlete. Hilliard posted 94th percentile Statcast sprint speed last season, and is listed at 6-foot-5 and 236 pounds. Bet on the upside here.
Nico Hoerner - 2B - Cubs
Nico Hoerner was the sneaky selection in 2018 first year player drafts for dynasty leaguers due to his athletic skill and cerebral approach to hitting. He got a brief cup of coffee in the bigs last year. Now he’s getting a chance to take the second base job for the big club this season. Jason Kipnis will challenge for some of the playing time, but Kipnis is past his peak. Hoerner provides the club with a lot more upside. For your fantasy squad, he can be an above average contributor in at least four categories if he’s given the full time job. And there’s the potential that he hits for more power as well.
Edward Olivares - OF - Padres
If you followed our roto-influenced hitter rankings over at Baseball Farm, you probably already own Edward Olivares in your dynasty league. He’s a power over contact type of hitter who can do damage when he barrels up. He’s also a fantastic athlete who can handle all three outfield positions. His best asset for your fantasy squad in 2020 is his speed. He went 35-for-45 in stolen base opportunities for Double-A Amarillo in 2019. He’s got an outside chance at putting up double digit stolen bases this season.
Sean Murphy - C - Athletics
Sean Murphy has a stranglehold on backstop duties for the A’s in the foreseeable future. For Murphy, it all starts with his advanced defensive abilities behind the plate. He’s got a plus arm and the potential for a plus all-around defensive package as he continues to mature. At the plate, he makes average contact and has an above-average eye with a patient approach. He also has some above-average pop in his bat. In his brief MLB stint last season, he averaged a 90.7 mph exit velocity. I think he’s a great late option at catcher for redraft leagues this year.
Andrew Knizner - C - Cardinals
Andrew Knizner is another interesting option at catcher late in redraft leagues this year. Knizner has hit for a good batting average and showed excellent plate control in his minor league career for St. Louis. He displays a contact over power approach that uses all fields and keeps a lower launch angle batted ball profile. He could be a second catcher piece that doesn’t hurt your batting average or on base percentage while adding a bit in the counting categories if he gets enough playing time.
Zach Mckinstry - INF - Dodgers
Hey look, it’s a productive left-handed bat that can play multiple positions and came out of nowhere to be on the cusp of MLB relevance. He must be a Dodger! Zach McKinstry is a former Central Michigan University Chippewa who was a 33rd round selection in the 2016 draft. He’s hit throughout his minor league career, and the Philthy Projections wouldn’t be surprised if he continued to do it at the MLB level if he gets a shot, projecting a .745 OPS. Playing time might be a bit of an uphill climb just because the Dodgers have so many dudes that fit a similar profile.
Mauricio Dubón - 2B - Giants
Mauricio Dubón is one of the few present prospects that the Giants have as part of their everyday plans for 2020. He’s got a quick bat, solid hand-eye coordination, and displayed some surprising power in the PCL last year. However he tore his ACL in 2018 and his athleticism hasn’t been quite as explosive since that injury. Still, the Philthy Projections have him going 7-for-10 in stolen base attempts in 2020, making him a free steals source in a lot of standard depth fantasy leagues.
Abraham Toro - 3B - Astros
Abraham Toro is likely to fill a utility infielder role for Houston this season, giving their regular lineup members the occasional rest. You’ll have to watch for an injury to a front-line guy for Toro to get regular reps this year. He’s a switch-hitter tends to crush right-handed pitching. So if he can get regular reps as the strong side of a platoon somewhere, this is a bat that can provide you with sneaky production in daily transaction leagues.
Zack Collins - C/1B/DH - White Sox
Zack Collins is a former first round choice that really lacks a clear path to playing time for the White Sox this year, who are jammed full of catcher/1B/DH types. Ahead of Collins on the depth chart are Yasmani Grandal, James McCann, Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion, and possibly Yermin Mercedes as well. He is the only left-handed bat on that list, however, and the AL Central is full of right-handed starting pitching. He struggles to make contact, but he can really pound the ball when he does. He posted a 14.9% barrel rate and 90.7 mph average exit velocity in his brief MLB stint last summer. He’s an injury away from being a sneaky power source with catcher eligibility for your fantasy squad.
Jonathan Arauz - UTIL - Red Sox
Jonathan Arauz should fit the role of a left-handed hitting utility infielder for the Red Sox this season. A Panamanian with a slick glove, Arauz has never hit very much in his professional career. He’s really just roster filler for fantasy purposes, and that’s only if he gets regular MLB playing time this season.
Anthony Alford - OF - Blue Jays
I feel like everytime I see a Blue Jays minor league game on MiLB.tv, it features Anthony Alford looking like he’s going to be an MLB regular. He’s battled injuries and rough stretches at the plate throughout his professional career. He’s also struggled mightily in each of the three brief MLB stints he’s had since 2017. As for Alford’s own take on the matter, he said that he’s been guilty of overthinking things in his career, which leads him to press at the plate and get into a funk. If he can step back and rely on his natural baseball instincts and athletic abilities, there’s still a glimmer of hope that Alford can live up to his previously lofty potential.