In losing half, if not all, of the 2020 season, we are left to ponder what we might have learned about some of the most intriguing (and frustrating) prospects going into this year. These players have the potential to significantly impact our fantasy teams in the near future, but they will need to answer some major questions or outperform some stiff competition to ascend to their lofty ceilings. Here is a look at 10 situations that fantasy owners will be seeking to resolve as soon as baseball is back.
1. Will Jasson Dominguez dominate in his first taste of pro ball?
The most hyped prospect of the year with sky high expectations, he will either solidify his penthouse price or give us serious pause when evaluating international teens if he doesn’t impress, let alone if he scuffles. At this point even if we have meaningful baseball in 2020, it is unlikely that we get much of a look this year, so we will likely have to settle for 2021 kicking off the Martian’s coming out party.
Potential Outcome:
High – Top prospect in baseball.
Low – Drops to the 50-60 range if he flashes skills but struggles for any extended period of time after he debuts stateside.
Prediction: Dominguez slays rookie ball in 2021 solidifying his spot as the heir apparent to Wander’s throne as the No.1 prospect in baseball.
2. Will CJ Abrams be more Francisco Lindor or Starling Marte?
Abrams is one of the most exciting prospects to dream on. There seems to be consensus that he has both a high ceiling and floor, hence the above comps. It seems equally likely that the power develops and he ascends to the top shortstop spot as that he shifts to the outfield where a Marte outcome is easily foreseeable.
Potential Outcome:
High – #1 ranked prospect in baseball assuming a few guys ahead of him graduate by the end of 2021.
Low – Hovers in the 20-30 range if he shifts to the outfield and the power hasn’t consistently shown up.
Prediction: Abrams proves he can handle shortstop and puts up close to a 15/40 line with an average near .300, vaulting up to the #2 spot in the rankings behind Dominguez by the end of the year.
3. Who will be ranked higher, Andrew Vaughn or Spencer Torkelson?
These guys seem destined to be compared to each other throughout their careers as they both hopefully will be terrorizing AL Central pitching (assuming Tork goes #1 to Detroit, and certainly no further than #4 to KC) for the next decade. Vaughn is considered to have the better hit tool, while Tork has the edge in raw power. They both are going to do their best to follow become the next great right-handed first basemen.
Potential Outcome:
High – Top five prospects behind guys like Dominguez, Abrams, Witt, Noelvi and maybe Julio Rodriguez if he hasn’t graduated yet.
Low – 40-50 range if either the hit or power tools are slow to develop and they haven’t debuted by the end of 2021.
Prediction: Both guys perform well over the course of the 2021 season, with Vaughn ultimately ranking higher due to his 2022 ETA and the fact that he will be slotted in the middle of a great lineup in Chicago. Both guys end the year in the top 10.
4. Which Tigers Starter establishes himself as the Tiger King of the Hill?
The Tigers are in the enviable position of having legitimate top 10 pitching talents in Mize, Manning and Skubal. This has been an interesting race to watch develop over the last while, beginning with Mize being the clear favorite and earning top 20 rankings in many places, with Manning a distant second and Skubal being barely a blip on the radar.
Today, Manning is favored by many, Mize has many spooked with injury concerns despite the tantalizing skill set, and Skubal is the dark horse candidate to be the best of the three. By the end of 2021 all three should have at least debuted, if not already exhausted their prospect eligibility, with one or more legitimately establishing themselves as top 30 overall SP options.
Potential Outcome:
High – All three guys have graduated and go into the 2022 season as top 50, if not higher, starting pitchers.
Low – 50-75 range if any of them get injured and fail to throw 50 major league innings by then.
Prediction: All three guys are in the Tigers rotation by the 2021 All-Star Break and it’s … (drum roll) … Manning who emerges as the ace of the bunch, though not quite a fantasy ace. Mize’s injury concerns continue to plague him, dropping him to the #3 spot due to innings limits, while Skubal rewards his supporters with a good K/9 and solid peripherals, settling in as a viable fantasy SP 4/5 option.
5. Will Jeter Downs revitalize the rebuilding Red Sox and finally fill the hole left by Dustin Pedroia?
Downs is sitting in the top 25-50 range and has a strong contingent of believers banking on him becoming a 20-20 mainstay at second base for Boston by the end of 2021. Downs met expectations last year, showing one of the best combinations of power, speed and on base skills in the minors last year, and should have no problem sticking at second base, and if he can hit enough there’s a chance that he will be setting the table for Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, JD Martinez and Michael Chavis. Nice.
Potential Outcome:
High – Graduated and starting at the keystone going into 2022.
Low – Top 30-50 prospect if we lose the 2020 season and he doesn’t find another gear at Triple-A in 2021. 2022 becomes a make or break season.
Prediction: Downs is a solid baseball player. Whether he ascends to near all-star status will depend on whether he can make consistent hard contact and utilize his above-average speed and natural baserunning prowess to rack up steals and extra bases with regularity. My guess is that he is smart and hard-working enough to tap that potential enough to solidify himself as at least a solid everyday player, putting up multiple 20/20 seasons in his prime in the middle of the decade. He won’t reach Pedroia levels, but he will at least ease the loss of Mookie Betts by becoming a popular and effective fixture in the Red Sox lineup.
6. Which international prospect that hasn’t appeared stateside will establish himself as the top dog?
Leaving Dominguez out of this discussion since he occupies his own space, there are a number of highly regarding international studs that people are forming camps behind. The leading candidate in most people’s eyes in Noelvi Marte, who is starting to exude JRod vibes and buzz, and who has garnered the most attention this offseason.
Right behind him is a nice group of players who are likely to be comped against each other for the next few years. They include Erick Peña, Luis Rodriguez, Robert Puason, Maximo Acosta and Ronald Acuña’s little brother, Luisangel. Peña and Rodriguez are five-tool outfielders likely destined for center or right and have earned rave reviews from scouts who love their advanced physicality and natural baseball skills. The three infield prospects all bring slightly different skillsets, and can most accurately be described as polarizing prospects. You’ll see them ranked anywhere from the top 50 to outside the top 150 of many lists, so the next year is going to be critical in differentiating between these high upside wildcards.
Potential Outcome:
High – Noelvi is a top five prospect; the best of the rest rise inside the top 20.
Low – If we lose the 2020 season, any of them that don’t impress in 2021 are likely relegated to the 150 – 200 range and will need to break out in 2022.
Prediction: This is a fun one, if nothing else. While we are getting better at evaluating 17-year-old talent, there is still so much that has to line up for any of these guys to reach their ultimate potential, and it will most likely take four to five years before any of them make a meaningful major league contribution.
That said, my guess here is that Noelvi proves himself to be a legit beast, posting league leading numbers in full A ball and solidifying his top 10 prospect status, while at least three of the other guys struggle enough in their pro debuts to push their value down for the immediate time being, making them affordable speculative adds if you are in a deeper league. It will be Peña who shines the brightest of the tier 2 bunch, crushing rookie ball in 2021 if for no other reason than his advanced physicality and solid fundamentals, elevating himself to firm top 25 status by the end of the year.
7. Can the next round of top SP prospects stay healthy?
Like them or not, pitching prospects are, in fact, a vital fantasy baseball commodity, as established MLB pitching is universally overpriced in virtually all formats. There are a number of high-end pitchers that should have graduated by the end of the 2021 season…assuming they stay healthy. These anxiety-inducing potential aces include Nate Pearson, Michael Kopech, Forrest Whitley, Luis Patiño, Spencer Howard and Sixto Sanchez.
All of them have had significant injury setbacks, with the exception of Patiño, whom I include because he is at the doorstep of the majors but falls squarely into the injury-concern category due to his high-octane arsenal and smallish frame. Most fantasy players have likely invested significant capital into one or more of these guys, and by the end of the 2021 season we will either be rejoicing in their ascendency to fantasy pitching stardom or bemoaning the loss of the 2022 season to Tommy John.
Potential Outcome:
High - None of these guys will still be prospect eligible after the 2021 season, unless of course they get injured. Assuming they stay healthy, each has the upside of an SP1 or SP2, potentially as soon as 2022.
Low – TINSTAAPP truthers rejoice.
Prediction: Hoo boy, so much talent here, and so many pitfalls. I own all of these guys in at least one league, so I’m not gonna lie and say I’m not rooting for all of their arms to stay intact, but realistically I think there’s a better than 25 percent chance one goes under the knife and another underperforms (sadly, the track record points to Whitley), while Howard and Sixto find moderate success (limited by an IP cap and minor injuries) while it is Kopech who emerges as the true (lesser) ace, leading an emerging White Sox team to the playoffs in 2022.
8. Will Oneil Cruz hit enough to get to his enormous power potential, and will he stick at SS?
Cruz is about as interesting of a prospect as you can get. He’s basically what you would create in a bout of inspired video game genius – a 6-foot-7 shortstop with 70+ grade raw power and an emerging hit tool. He strikes out way too much and there will always be questions about whether guys that tall with such long limbs can find a consistent stroke, but if Cruz can even develop into a three true outcome player like the version of Sano we saw last year, he will easily earn back anything you invest into him now. The price is already going up, and by the end of 2021 he very easily may have established himself as one of the top power prospects in baseball, with a significant bump if he sticks at SS.
Potential Outcome:
High – Top five prospect if everything clicks and he gets called up in 2021 but doesn’t lose prospect eligibility.
Low – Sinks to the 100-150 range if the bat regresses and he starts eliciting Quad-A concerns.
Prediction: Admittedly, I’m all in on Cruz and believe that his natural athleticism and immense power will carry him to a starting role with the Pirates in 2022….in right field, where he becomes some hybrid of a Gallo/Judge type player, hitting in the .240-250 range with 35+ HR and a combined 180 R/RBI, and earning more than one Gold Gloves by the end of the decade.
9. Can one of the Rays speedsters separate himself enough to earn a starting role and become a viable SB source?
The Rays have become notorious in recent years for prioritizing matchups and valuing flexibility over developing static lineup stalwarts. But, what if Vidan Brujan, Xavier Edwards or Greg Jones can establish themselves as an everyday leadoff batter for what should be a young, athletic, productive Rays lineup for the next few years?
Each guy has blazing speed and has proven they have elite stolen base skills (Brujan and Edwards in the minors and Jones in college), as well as having flashed enough bat to make this a viable inquiry. With stolen bases presumably remaining at a premium even two years from now, any player who can legitimately threaten a .270 AVG, 100 Run, 40 SB season is fantasy gold, even if they provide little to no power.
There certainly are enough question marks about each guy to set the likelihood of this outcome at less than 50 percent, but there’s clearly a non-zero chance that any one of these guys can get there, with the absolute best case scenario of the modern day version of a Juan Pierre/Luis Castillo 1/2 terror at the top of the order.
Possible Outcome:
High – One of them turns into a top of the order mainstay (most likely Brujan) and steals at least 30 per year, and at least one of other two earns significant enough playing time to bank another 20-25 steals without killing you in other categories.
Low – They simply don’t hit enough to make more than a marginal impact and end up being more frustrating than valuable to roster.
Prediction: As a Tampa resident and Rays fan, I’d love for all three guys to find meaningful playing time and make the Rays into the most feared contact/baserunning team in the league, giving pitchers fits, exhausting bullpens and disrupting defensive shifts…but that result isn’t likely. Brujan should work his way into a starting role by the end of 2021, though, whether at second base (assuming Adames sticks at short and Wander takes over at third) or center, where he does, in fact, hit enough to lead off and secure a top five round ADP. Edwards and Jones end up as bench UT bats, and one of them is likely moved by 2022 to a team that gives them a shot to replicate Brujan’s success, although they ultimately fall short of his impact.
10. Can any of the following polarizing major league ready prospects find another level and become above-average regulars?
Carter Kieboom, Nick Madrigal, Cristian Pache, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Nolan Jones. Talented, mature, successful…overrated? All top 50 prospects and possessing at least one major league level carrying tool, these guys have tantalized us with their potential, but leave us wanting more and questioning their ultimate fantasy value. The Nats were poised to give Kieboom the starting third base job in 2020, and Madrigal was presumed to debut by June at the latest. Pache, Hayes and Jones seemed like virtual locks to be starting by 2021. With the season now in jeopardy, these doorstep dwellers are going to have a lot to prove in 2021 lest they find themselves relegated to the post-hype sleeper pile (or worse) in 2022.
Possible Outcome:
High – Each guy fills the major hole with their bat by the end of 2021 and we’re looking at a group of viable above-average regulars that reward those owners who were patient enough to hold them through a rocky MLB transition.
Low – The naysayers have reason to gloat when Pache and Hayes end up as defense first big leaguers, Kieboom and Jones struggle defensively and can’t control the strikeouts and/or tap into their raw power, and Madrigal turns out to be more David Fletcher than Jose Altuve.
Prediction: Unfortunately, four of these guys will end up being better real baseball players than fantasy players with the exception being … Pache! All the haters end up eating a big plateful of crow when the “bet on the athlete” advocates win this debate. Pache is just too good at baseball to not figure out a way to become an impact bat, whether he ultimately focuses on contact and superior baserunning skills, hitting in the 1 or 2 spot ahead of prime Acuña, Albies and Freeman to the tune of .280+, 10-15 HR, 15-20 SB, 100+ R and 40+ doubles/triples, or perhaps selling out for power and slotting in behind those guys in the 5 or 6 hole, pumping out 25+ HR and 90+ RBI while holding down a Gold Glove caliber CF in either scenario. 2021 should finally define this player so we can move on to enjoy the next chapter of his career.
Hayes likely ends up showing us what Matt Chapman would have been had he not found another gear upon reaching the majors; Jones tries to do his best Carlos Santana impression but can’t get to the power enough to crack top 15 first basemen status and takes a backseat to Alec Bohm and Evan White, who do become top 10 first basemen options; Kieboom continues to frustrate his believers with subpar hot corner defense and strikeout issues, ultimately shifting to second and hopefully finding a late career renaissance as he approaches his age 26/27 seasons, producing a few 25+ HR seasons; and Madrigal settles into the 8th or 9th spot in the lineup, posting consistent .275+ averages with 20+ SB but not much else, making him relevant mostly as a deeper league MI option.