Previously, this series looked into the prospect depth of the Pac-12 in its final season along with a handful of standouts from the Western Athletic Conference.
Turning the page to the less heralded Big West Conference, there are loads of fascinating names to be on the lookout for that will comprise a fair portion of this year’s day 2 selections with a couple of sleepers to sneak into the very end of day 1. UC Santa Barbara is heavily represented in this piece, while UC Irvine will also be represented by a trio of draftees.
Next week, in the final installment of this series, the West Coast Conference and the Mountain West Conference will get their chance in the spotlight.
Caden Kendle, OF, uc Irvine
Kendle has been a 3-year standout for the Anteaters after a developmental freshman season. He entered this year needing to elevate his hit tool to the next level, as power will never be the 5-foot-11 outfielder’s calling card. Kendle did just that as a senior, raising his zone contact percentage from 86.6% to 89.7% and becoming more selective at the plate. While Kendle didn’t see a power uptick, and still profiles for well below average power, he molded his game to fit his strengths better and now profiles to potentially see leadoff work in the minors.
At this point, Kendle truly has a rounded hit tool that borders on a plus grade. Kendle’s compact and lofty swing, his plus feel for contact, above-average zone awareness, and apt pitch recognition create a strong outlook. The athletic Kendle profiles as an average defender in a corner and potentially in center as well. The Irvine star will be a high-floor, low-ceiling pick, likely sometime on day 2.
Woody Hadeen, SS, UC Irvine
Hadeen is average power away from being a bonafide first-round talent. Unfortunately, he’s got bottom of the scale pop, though his sizable frame hints that a grade up is possible, if not likely. Aside from that, Hadeen is a ballplayer. He switch hits with two short compact strokes that yield tons of solid contact; getting a fastball by Hadeen is next to impossible. The cherry on top is an extremely selective and advanced approach. The Colorado-born Hadeen has the prototypical tools of a leadoff hitter or 9-hole hitter to turn over the lineup.
Defensively, Hadeen likely won’t stick at shortstop because of a below-average arm, despite having adequate range. Unless he can unlock another gear as a thrower, Hadeen’s future home will be second base with a chance to work in some outfield reps. Hadeen is comfortably an above-average runner and flashes impressive base-stealing instincts. Likely a day 3 option because of the limited upside, Hadeen will have a stable pro career because of his advanced hitting ability and quality athleticism.
Myles Smith, OF, uc Irvine
One of the more underrated players in this class, Smith, and his gaudy offensive numbers have gone somewhat overlooked in the Big West. Smith has few weaknesses without getting too nitpicky and has the upside to be a dynamic 5-tool center fielder. Offensively, Smith has a standout approach summed up by his sub-15% chase rate, high-end bat-to-ball skills as indicated by his 93% zone contact rate, and has above average raw power with the chance for more if he can maximize his twitchy swing.
Smith struggles to get A-swings off on the outer half and will roll a lot of balls over, requiring inner half challenges to do damage. While he’ll see plenty of pitches on the inner half, Smith could use to stay behind pitches away. Defensively, Smith plays an average center field with quick feet and good reaction time. His speed is just average, so the defensive upside may be capped, but Smith should stick in center with above-average potential in a corner. A player that hasn’t been talked about much early in the draft, Smith has the profile of a top-50 pick and might quickly find his name on a model team’s card on day 2.
Ryan Forcucci, RHP, UC san diego
Forcucci missed most of the season due to injury and could not establish himself as a first-round lock despite his talent level, which supported such a draft position. Forcucci has an easy plus fastball with double-plus upside. The heater sits 92-95, touching 97 with plus carry from a low arm slot, and is located with ease; it’s been one of the most effective fastballs in college baseball over the last two seasons. The prototypically built Forcucci also blends in a plus slider with tight, late break that he can dial into the upper 80s.
Forcucci has flashed a curveball with huge drop and a power bowling ball changeup. Both have plus potential and give the San Diego native true top-of-the-rotation upside. One of the bigger wild cards in the class, Forcucci could find himself off the board early on an underslot deal but fits well as a mid-to-late day 1 pick.
Matt Ager, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
After a dominant sophomore campaign that primed Ager for a top 50 selection, Ager found himself in the bullpen full time following a step back in his stuff. It’s unclear if injury played a part, but Ager’s fastball lost a tick on average, and his slider lost 5 inches of horizontal and a few inches of vertical break.
Noticeably, Ager seemed to get more scapular load and better use from his hips last year, and reduced power fits the bill. Teams will undoubtedly still try to buy stock in a player who possessed an above-average heater and slider last season, even if both pitches looked a grade lower this year.
Ryan Gallagher, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
A truly great pronator, Gallagher gets plenty of natural arm-side movement and offers great upside. Gallagher gets above-average run and carry on his fastball, making it a potential plus pitch despite its 88-91 range with an occasional 93. Gallagher is still slightly built and could add 10-15 pounds of efficient mass, lending a tick of velo in the process.
As you’d expect, Gallagher can get around his changeup, and it features quality run and well above-average fade, playing more like a breaking ball in terms of its steepness and overall movement. It sits 75-78, giving it a true change of pace. On the other hand, Gallagher’s slider is very tight and lacks overall movement, but it plays exactly where Gallagher wants it to. The ability to get around the baseball and locate effectively gives Gallagher a chance to succeed in a rotation despite limited power.
Ivan Brethowr, OF, UC Santa Barbara
An absolutely juiced-up 6-foot-6, 250-pound outfielder, Brethowr plays as you’d expect with his massive frame, though with surprising polish. Of course, there’s plus pop here with a 107.7 90th percentile exit velocity and top-of-the-scale max exit velocities. Brethowr’s swing operation is very relaxed and efficient, with bat speed that just leaves you nodding your head. Throwing a Giancarlo Stanton comparison on an amateur player is unwise, but between the relaxed setup, bat speed, and gargantuan power, Brethowr is reminiscent of Stanton.
As alluded to earlier, there are impressive secondary skills here. Brethowr knows the strike zone well and will spit on good secondary offerings, though he can get a little aggressive hunting fastballs. His bat-to-ball skills are around average, something you don’t see every day from a player with Brethowr’s frame and power, giving rise to a potentially average hit tool. Defensively, there’s a legitimate future in an outfield corner as Brethowr carries his mass well, capable of fringe-average run times. Brethowr’s draft range is wide, spanning much of day 2, but there’s a real chance he sneaks into the top 100 picks as a high-upside masher.
Zander Darby, 3B, UC Santa Barbara
After a torrid start to the year with him looking like a first-round prospect, Darby tapered off during conference play, producing lukewarm numbers at best. However, a look underneath the hood matches what we saw earlier in the year. Darby has an ultra-smooth left-handed swing that covers the entire zone well. There is some swing and miss to Darby’s game, but he makes up for it with plus swing decisions. Further, Darby has fringe-average raw power with room for more in his still-developing frame.
Issues against breaking balls and limited athleticism are the holds here, with Darby being both a fringe-average runner and defender at the hot corner. There’s a real chance he plays first base in the pros, which would put pressure on his bat to shine through.
Jessada Brown, OF, UC Santa Barbara
Another UCSB Gaucho with impressive power, Brown has legit bat speed and easy above-average juice. The hit tool is fringe-average and potentially even below average with a serious tendency to expand the zone paired with fringe average feel for contact. Still, Brown has flashed good balance and timing against secondary pitches--landing a. 980 OPS against them with respectable contact rates--plus a swing that produces plenty of fly balls.
Defensively, Brown looks like an average corner defender with quality athleticism. Brown has recorded plus run times out of the right-handed batter’s box and flashes great range in the outfield, though a fringe-average arm caps his defensive upside. Despite the imperfections, Brown’s undeniable power will have him strongly in play throughout day 2.
Aaron Parker, C, UC Santa Barbara
Parker looks to have the most usable game power of the catchers in this draft, even in a deep catching class. The 5-foot-9 backstop packs an absolute punch with a strong lower half and a big leg kick that initiates his operation. Parker whips the bat head through the zone and has created exit velocities consistently in the 110s with a 90th percentile exit velocity of 108.1. The swing is exploitable in ways with some plate coverage issues low and away, but anything up in the zone is primed for damage. His zone awareness is average, and there’s a fair amount of swing-and-miss to Parker’s game.
There are flashes of an above-average defender behind the dish. Parker is nimble and showcases great hands both as a framer and blocker. Throwing-wise, Parker has mastered the exchange and can manage pop times at and below 1.80, averaging in the low 1.8 range. A well-below-average runner, Parker won’t contribute with his speed.
Parker has largely gone unnoticed in this class but profiles to be at least an average defender behind the dish with huge power potential. All the moving parts in his swing may deter quality offensive performance, but the tools are here. Parker should find himself taken early on day 2 should teams dig into his defensive ability.
Jakob Wright, LHP, Cal Poly
One of the draft’s best southpaws, Wright sits 91-94 with a downhill heater, making him a premium ground ball inducer. Further helping him get a groundball on 56.7% of balls in play, Wright also has two distinct 3,000 RPM breaking balls, a slider that gets heavy sweep in the mid-80s, and a devastating low-80s two-plane curveball. Both profile as legit, plus pitches.
Wright has also flashed a changeup with good arm speed and ideal separation from his fastball, though it’s been limited in usage. The nature of Wright’s breaking ball-based arsenal leaves the door open for walks, and the 6-foot lefty must find ways to get ahead and let his top-tier breakers do the rest of the work. Wright has all the upside to be a backend starter or better and should go off the board in the first 100 picks.
Jake Steels, OF, Cal Poly
While Steels is a below-average power guy, he’s above average or better in every other facet of the game. First and foremost, there’s a plus feel for contact here, and Steels will cover any pitch type in any quadrant of the zone. His swing is extremely short, with little effort to get his bat through the zone. The swing decisions here are around average, but Steels will draw plenty of walks because of his overall hitting aptitude.
On the basepaths, it’s the easy plus speed for Steels with double plus times right around 4.05 up the line mixed in. Steels has a chance to be a plus defender in center field with a borderline reckless approach to the position as he flies around, prioritizing the play above all else and has a solid above-average arm to go along with it. This is a fun, high-floor prospect with a chance to be an on-base threat and a glove to carry the profile.
Ryan Verdugo, RHP, Cal State Bakersfield
A low launch arm, Verdugo sits just 90-93 (maxing at 95) with his fastball, but his ability to drive from underneath the baseball makes his fastball an average or better offering. Paired with a deviously good slider with a loopy shape and healthy drop, Verdugo has the floor of a solid relief prospect with two average or better pitches. Verdugo is a great supinator and can spin the baseball with spin rates frequently above 2,900 RPMs on his breakers.
The 6-foot-2 Verdugo throws a steep curveball that has the makings of another average pitch. There’s a changeup Verdugo has dabbled with, though it’s a below-average offering presently. More strike-throwing could give Verdugo a real chance to start in pro ball, but either way, he’s got a skillset the league is prioritizing.
Other Big West names to keep an eye on:
CJ Hood, RHP, Long Beach State
Hood lacks pitchability and feel for his arsenal but two distinct 2800+ rpm breakers and a projectable frame make him a pro target.
Mike Villani, RHP, Long Beach State
Bullpen all the way, Villani has a potential plus fastball sitting 94-96 with carry. His breaking ball is a work in progress but Villani has developmental potential.
Emiliano Gonzalez, C, UC San Diego
A catcher with quality bat speed, average swing decisions and feel for contact, plus a pro defensive outlook behind the plate will get looks as a senior sign.
Steven Brooks, RHP, Cal Poly
Brooks is a control and finesse based pitcher with a legitimate 5 pitch arsenal, all of which could be useful offerings, despite topping out at 93.
Ryan Stafford, C, Cal Poly
A 3-year starter, Stafford has a long track record for hitting at a high level. Stafford whiffs and chases more than you’d like for a player with below average power, though he profiles to stick behind the plate defensively.
Gary Grosjean, RHP, Cal State Bakersfield
LIke his teammate Verdugo, Grosjean is a low launcher with velo up to 96 and an average slider and changeup.
That concludes this Big West prospect overview. As always, this is a deep conference that will eventually produce its share of big leaguers once again. Pay close attention to Myles Smith, Ryan Forcucci, Ivan Brethowr, and Jakob Wright as the biggest names to follow.