Howdy, folks! 

If you’re reading this, it’s already too late.

That’s right, I’ve somehow tricked yet another well-respected outlet into letting me write for them, in exchange for several large cloth bags marked with cartoonish dollar signs.

I’m very grateful to Scout the Statline for previously hosting my writing, but the website has decided to focus fully on data, and Prospects Live was gracious enough to take me on in the process.

Now that we’ve got all that fun stuff covered, let’s figure out some things about our first couple weeks of consistent baseball action… specifically: what’s real, and what’s not.

We live in what many refer to as the “Tik Tok” generation, and our fantasy judgements are often afflicted by what I’d deem to be fantasy football brain.

Baseball, on the other hand, is a patient man’s game. A player could go 0-for-30 to start the year, and still conceivably end the season with a .300+ batting average.

The first month of action is full of emotional swings, so let’s dig in and find some balance.

The Bats

Adolis Garcia, OF, TEX

I’m going to be honest and tell you that I’ve been busy as all get out to start this season, so when I recently received a fantasy offer to trade away Adolis Garcia, I almost smashed accept. 

After all, have you seen his surface stats? Garcia's been hovering around a .200 batting average, and after last year's 92 wRC+ it seems like his decline may be under way… or maybe not.

All it takes is a brief look into the underlying metrics to see that Mr. Garcia is not only someone you need to hold in fantasy leagues, but to go out and acquire! 

He’s smashing the ball as hard as ever, gotten his sprint speed back up to 2023 levels (indicating he may have played hurt), and is somehow running a 10% K rate. 

I’m not foolish enough to believe he can operate with anywhere close to that much discipline, but it’s certainly an exciting development, and the surface stats are going to climb rapidly moving forward. 

While Adolis Garcia just turned 32 recently, there's still the potential for a few more peak seasons!

Kyren Paris, 2B, LAA

One month ago, hardly anyone had heard of Paris, and now he’s statistically ranked as a top-5 bat in all of baseball.

Gotta love April baseball!

Kyren Paris has an incredibly bizarre profile, making it a little tricky to figure out how much of this can carry on as the season progresses. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, doesn’t have a great launch angle, and whiffs all the time…yet his five home runs are split 2 pull/1 center/2 oppo, something that would typically indicate great strength and/or hitting ability.

One thing Paris does have going for him is elite bat speed, which could contribute to him barreling up the ball as much as he does. 

All in all, his 5 HR, 5 SB, and .400+ BA make him way too buzzy to pay for in fantasy leagues. However, he does have a history of high OBPs in his minor league career, and the speed is for real. 

If you’ve got him, hold him. If you don’t and have FOMO - I’d advise against overpaying.

There could be a 15 HR, 30 SB bat here for Paris if he continues to hit at an above average clip to secure full time PA throughout the season.

Wilyer Abreu, OF, BOS

It's time to sell-high on Wilyer Abreu.

*pause for dramatic effect/Red Sox fans punching the air*

Listen, it’s not because his profile is going to completely crater - it’s that there are Boston fans in almost any league, and there is so much influence from that region on our baseball media that it inflates any Red Sox players’ value.

Abreu entered the season as a strong-side platoon bat. He got his first start of the year against a LHP on Saturday, but he's gone just 1-for-6 with 2 BB against them so far this season. Additionally, in his 84 PA against them for his career, Abreu's slashed just .182/.259/.260 against them.

Could Abreu be a fantastic play all season long? Sure. But he’s currently ranked as a top-15 bat in the Razzball Player Rater, and you could possibly get a major haul by selling now.

The Arms

Kris Bubic, LHP, KC

Kris Bubic added some kind of hybrid between his current slider and sweeper (classified as a slider) back in 2023, and it completely revamped his arsenal. During those 16 innings of glory, some of us thought we had found a new ace!

One Tommy John operation and a bullpen-season later, and it seems like we’ve finally arrived at our destination.

Sometimes this Michael Scott/The Office gif is overplayed, but really...

He’s got a full starter’s arsenal, and on several occasions I’ve seen his sweeper land middle-middle while still generating vicious swinging strikeouts. Statistically, he's one of just 9 pitchers with at least a 20% K-BB and 50% GB. Those other pitchers? Logan Gilbert, Logan Webb, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Paul Skenes, Nathan Eovaldi, Max Fried, Hunter Brown and Spencer Schwellenbach.

If Bubic can give us a full season this year, I would bet on him becoming a locked-in high-end starter entering 2026 and a wonderful SP2 after Cole Ragans for the Kansas City Royals.

Go get him if you can!

Mackenzie Gore, LHP, WSN

Having just moved out to the Northern Virginia/DC area, I’ll have to catch some live action of Gore this year.

Mackenzie Gore is still just 26 years old and was considered the top lefty pitching prospects for several years while coming up in the Padres system. 

Gore has always packed a big heater, but it felt like he needed a major adjustment in order to make his deep, yet previously ineffective arsenal come alive.

Well, this season he’s throwing his wicked slider MUCH more than in the past, and it’s working. Not just that, but the emphasis of this pitch has seemingly allowed for his curve and changeup to play up and strike out a ton of bats so far in 2025.

His opening day start was incredible, but he's shown glimpses of his old self over his past two outings. Ultimately, this is still a young, volatile starter who could be taking the next step, or end up falling back into his old ways.

I'm still not sure it’s a profile I’m actively buying, but it sure ain’t one I’m selling.

Drew Rasmussen, SP, TB

All offseason I was perplexed why guys like Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen were being hyped up like they weren’t players with tremendous injury risk, and early on, Mac reminded us of those unfortunate issues.

Rasmussen, on the other hand, is being treated by many as if he’s bulletproof despite multiple Tommy John operations, as well as an internal brace procedure. 

At the relatively young age of 29 years old, this is kind of unchartered territory.

I wish nothing but the best for Mr. Rasmussen as he strings together strong performances, and think it’s pretty clear the Rays are great at getting the most out of their pitchers’ abilities…

…but I’m also leery of how their “stuff-maxing” is resulting in physical harm to their pitchers.

I'd recommend cashing your chips and selling for a sturdier starter in fantasy leagues.

Until next week...I'm your huckleberry.