2024 Bowman Chrome is here and as usual, it’s headlined by a strong group of recent International Free Agent signings with a few other interesting names sprinkled throughout. Have you had your fill of Leodalis De Vries hype yet? If not, prepare for a full helping.
We classify each prospect in three ways - a Tier ranking, a Risk grade, and a Ceiling grade, all within the context of the baseball card collecting hobby.
Tier Ranks
Tier 1 - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won’t end up as full-time designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP 1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier 2 - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players with huge power, great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite, or tantalizing raw talents. High-end SP 2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier 3 - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit-tool-only bats, Quad-A power bats, defense-first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
*Catchers and Pitchers are often knocked down a tier just due to their position.
Risk and Ceiling Grades
We also assigned Risk and Ceiling to each player to provide a quick glimpse into each player.
Risk is a general measure of how far a player has advanced toward making an impact in the majors. So anyone at the Complex level, by rule, is almost always a 9 or 10 risk. On the flip side, a player at the AAA level is most likely a 1-3 level of risk.
Ceiling is just how significant the player has the potential of being for the hobby. I’ll provide the definition of a 5, and you, the reader, can interpret everything from that: a maximum realistic projection of an MLB regular with 10-15 HR power, .260 average, and one other element of interest (team context, excellent speed, etc).
*Note - Any stats quoted are from the time of writing (and not necessarily the time of reading)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Abdias De La Cruz, 19, OF
A 2023 Bowman prospect, I won't spend too much time on De La Cruz here since this card will not have his 1st Bowman logo. However, there are a few things worth noting since he is in the checklist. Back in our 2023 Bowman write-up, we had one DSL season of stats to go off of, and they weren’t good. Fast forward to the tail end of the 2024 season and De La Cruz has taken that vague physical projection we noted and has started to deliver on it. The hit tool especially has taken the next step at the Complex level in 2024, as he’s kept the walk rates in the mid double digit range (14%) while cutting the strikeouts down under 21%. There hasn’t been much in-game power to show up yet, but his lanky frame looks like it’s starting to solidify into a future 20 - 25 corner outfield home run bat. And yes, I did sneak corner outfielder into that previous comment as he’s now fully moved off the dirt and into a corner where he’s better suited as an average defender. Moving out of Tier None from 2023, the arrow is pointing up and De La Cruz is now easily in Tier 3 with the potential for more. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 7 Auto Only
Adriel Radney, 17, OF
The Diamondbacks top International Signing of this most recent class for $1.8M, Radney was a consensus top 10-15 prospect in the class. It’s easy to see why as he looks the part with the potential for all the tools we care about in the Hobby - hit, speed, and power. At just 17 years old, he looks well-built, but there’s always the possibility for those that look physically mature and solidly built to grow out of the future speed grades they carry at the moment. The swing looks simple and balanced with power to come. The results in 34 games in the DSL in 2024 didn’t look great (.225 average with no home runs and one stolen base), so there is a note of caution in the glowing projections. However, he kept the strikeout rate under 20% with a double digit walk rate. There’s plenty of other nits to pick with Radney which keep me from pushing him into Tier 2. However, the eye test was definitely passed with the video I was able to dig up on him. I’m easily buying here, especially with the 2024 stat line likely keeping his prices low. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7-9 Both
Yassel Soler, 18, 3B
Signed for $425K out of the Dominican as part of the 2023 International Free Agency class, Soler looks to easily justify that pay day so far. The hit tool is the carrying card here as he makes contact all over the zone without it being empty contact. With that plus contact ability, he’s not often taking a walk (under 7% BB rate in 2024), so there is some small bit of hesitation that he will need to adjust as pitchers figure out better approaches against him. The strikeout rate in 2024 spiked up to 17% from the 12% he was running in the DSL, but that is still very strong for a first pass at the Complex level. His full line at the Complex in 2024 was a triple slash of .303/.351/.472 with 6 home runs and 6 stolen bases in 53 games. Digging into the rest of the tools isn’t as promising. The aggressive approach doesn’t lend itself to big power as hitters tend to end up with a higher ground ball rate and that’s the case here - 50% in both of Soler’s pro seasons thus far. On the other hand, putting the bat on the ball as much as Soler does will lead to falling into 10-15 home runs, and perhaps closer to 20 in the right situation. The stolen bases are less of a feature and more of a bug - I would expect those to tick down as he matures as he doesn’t grade out as a strong runner. I was unable to find any useful defensive video, but the opinions are all over the board on how much he will or won’t stick at third base - we really just have to watch out for the dreaded move to first base. The hit tool alone gives some Tier 2 consideration, but without any other tool likely ending up better than average, it keeps him in Tier 3 until we see how he handles full season ball and if any other tools trend upwards. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
Jose Fernandez, 20, 3B/SS
A 6`3” defensive-first infielder who’s shown he has the athleticism to handle any of the four positions, the biggest question has been - can that be such a carrying tool that the rest of his game doesn’t matter? I would venture to say no - he’s ceding an awful lot of time to players with better offensive potential at their preferred position. But Fernandez hasn’t been a complete zero on the offensive side himself. He has below average bat speed because he doesn’t load much, but he makes up for it with a good feel for the barrel and situational awareness,. It’s an aggressive swing but he’s also willing to take pitches anytime it doesn’t behoove him to swing. There is some swing-and-miss because he’s just unable to execute, but look – he’s only 20. The aggression can be toned down, the quality of contact can improve. Fernandez is not much of a base-stealing threat, but he looks so athletic that I wonder if that aspect of his game can tick up. Nothing I’m saying here is screaming “good hobby name” though, right? He’s not. But he does have a legitimate shot to make it to the majors because of that defense in 3-4 years, assuming his baseball acumen at the plate grows with experience. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Neyfy Castillo, 23, OF
Big and muscular, there is certainly some power appeal with Castillo. He’s reached double digit HR in each of the last four MiLB seasons. The highlights show him rocketing hard hit balls with ease. But nothing is so simple. His swing is really long. He doesn’t use his back leg to drive his hips much at all – instead he opens up very early and uses his strong hands and front leg to drive. It's a pull heavy approach to a fault, though he can definitely use those hands to bang it to the opposite field as well. There’s clearly a book on how to easily pitch to Castillo, and it worked really well to the extent of a demotion to High-A at one point this year after playing at AA last year. Even now at 23, he chases with much too much frequency and misses often – since coming stateside his K% has never been below 30. Once having possessed significant speed, he has slowed down as he's grown into his body and he’s less of a threat on the bases now. Everything in Castillo’s track record and the fact that there’s been no real change to his swing says this is a guy who won’t make it to the majors. But stranger things have happened, and he does have power. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2 Auto Only
Adrian De Leon, 20, C
If you like backup catchers that rarely take the bat off their shoulder, then De Leon is right up your alley. I don’t think I saw him swing at a first pitch in any at bat I watched, and perhaps not even any first pitch strikes either. He almost never swings at anything outside the zone, so at least he’s got a good eye, something that often happens with catchers as they can have a good concept of the zone. He is currently running in the 98th percentile for outside the zone swing rate. Unfortunately that is not balanced out by aggression in the zone, as his zone swing rate is in the 16th percentile. When he does swing, he is making contact, even if it isn’t the best contact, so there is that I suppose. De Leon is on the smaller side, so I don’t expect we see much power in the long run either. He’ll groove one out every now and then, but it’s average power at best if he decides to swing more. Behind the dish it looks like he’s got enough movement and framing at the moment to stick there, but the arm was just fine albeit inconsistent. And if he can’t stick behind the dish, there’s nowhere else for him to go as the bat just isn’t good enough. This is an easy pass from a Hobby perspective. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 2 Auto Only
Atlanta Braves
Tier 1
Jose Perdomo, 17, SS
Outside of LDV, Perdomo was regularly in the conversation of the best International Free Agent in the most recent signing class. When the Braves gave Perdomo the highest signing bonus of the class at $5M ($800K more than LDV), the already sky-high expectations just became that much higher. There were some high hopes when Perdomo was assigned to the Complex league, skipping the DSL, both in terms of the Braves faith in him and the potential for stateside looks, but a hamstring injury nixed that plan. When Perdomo’s hamstring was ready to go, Atlanta instead started him in the DSL, where he got in just 8 games before the season ended. All that is to say, there is literally no video out there of Perdomo’s brief pro debut and the 22 plate appearances are just way too small of a sample size to read anything into, so we’ll have to rely on the reports leading into the year more than anything else. Those reports have Perdomo as a five tool player with the potential to stick at shortstop. Some questions linger about the defense from a fielding perspective, but in the Hobby, we’re less concerned about it until we see him really struggle. Offensively all three tools (hit, power, and speed) are potential plus tools, with the run aspect considered to be the likeliest to reach that ceiling. LDV will carry all the hype in this product, but Perdomo’s Ceiling and hype will have him in that conversation with the best of the rest in the product. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8-10 Both
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Mario Baez, 18, 2B/SS
A six figure IFA signee last year who was really young for the class, Baez didn’t turn 18 until after this year’s Complex League completed. Short with a thick middle, Baez has a 2B build, but his good speed is allowing him to play some SS at present as well. Last year in the DSL Baez turned heads with an excellent contact oriented approach, and that’s why the name may be somewhat familiar. But it mostly went away this year – it seems his sound swing, approach and lower-body physicality was allowing that performance. From what I saw, there was a lot of asynchronous movement with his hands and front leg block – too often it looks like he’s flailing. (The game I watched Baez was facing Zander Mueth, so take what I’ve said with a grain of salt, but as always it does play into who Baez is as a whole.) There was no impact at all this year even though he ran a sub-20 K%. I think that’s still OK - he’ll play next year in just his age-18 season after all. He just really needs a more rhythmic swing, and that can come with organic development. We just haven’t seen it yet, and we definitely haven’t seen power. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5 Both
Will Verdung, 21, 1B
The Braves 13th Round selection from a Mississippi DII JuCO last year where he showed some pop, Verdung was deployed to Low-A Augusta to man 1B this year, though he could potentially handle a corner OF, 2B or 3B if needed. Verdung has a nice swing. It’s a level plane that generates a good amount of line drive contact and he engages his lower half well, but there’s one problem: he’s terrible at manipulating the barrel. When you add in the ingredient that he’s not the most physically strong player, anything on the outer half is a big problem in terms of contact quality. It’s completely possible that this is really just one ingredient that’s solved with added physicality and his hit tool ticks up enough for him to be a middling prospect. But that’s his ceiling – a corner util without average power potential. It’s fine for being a 13th Round pick, but the upside to be something significant for the hobby simply isn’t there. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Leiker Figueroa, 19, SS
Figueroa signed for 100k in January of 2022, so he now has three years of MiLB experience to his name. It’s really apparent that he won’t make it much further. He’s never had a SLG over .300 at any stop, nor has he hit over .215. For his career even his OBP stands below .300. The Braves pushed him to Low-A to fill a utility role at the beginning of the year and he played most days, which resulted in 35 wRC+. He was then sent back to the Complex at the end of that season in a procedural move, as Willmer De La Cruz was promoted to replace him. I can’t imagine him surviving the offseason cuts. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 1 Auto Only
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Stiven Martinez, 17, OF
Long and lean and 6’4”, Martinez oozes with the power potential we love. I watched him hit a walk-off HR on an outside pitch that he took 400 feet to right center – impressive stuff for his age. That willingness to go to all fields is a great sign that his K numbers (over 30% now) could improve with physical maturity. He should be able to calm down his (currently very large) leg kick and let his levers operate more naturally eventually. I’m absolutely not saying he has a great or even good potential hit tool – it’s hard to say that of anyone with his size and experience – but his approach is already solid and I truly think he’ll be able to get to most of his plus raw power with time. Defensively he plays CF for now, but he doesn’t run much and as his body gets bigger he will very likely move to a corner. But it’s the bat, and more so the power here that’s evident already. The Orioles #2 J15 this year at 950k, he’s a solid name for this product. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6-8 Both
Tier 3
Thomas Sosa, 19, OF
A Dominican signed for 400k back in January 2022, Sosa has improved his raw power year over year as he’s grown into his 6’3” body, and he’s maintained his excellent speed in doing so. Now, the power is definitely still raw – his swing looks very violent and that leads to quite a bit of swing and miss, and his feel for the barrel also needs work. When his approach matures we’ll truly see how much damage he can do, because right now there’s too much low quality contact to properly read who he’ll be at maturity. The biggest question is if he can actually do it. The Orioles believe in him – they promoted him to High-A at the end of this season. His speed is really his best tool, and something he uses to great effect both on the bases and in the OF (he‘s played all three positions with frequency this year). Ultimately Sosa could be a 20 HR/20 SB line drive machine as a 80th percentile outcome. There’s still a lot of variance with his hit tool even within that, but if he hits the upper end he’d be a significant hobby name. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6 Auto Only
Emilio Sanchez, 17, SS
Sanchez was the Orioles top IFA signer this January at $1.3MM. The Dominican has a long way to go with his physical development, but it’s already sure to be a hit over power profile. He’s strong in his lower half, but his hand positioning is poor – he doesn’t find the barrel much at present and impact is minimal unless he really grooves it (which can be said about anyone). He does have enough coordination to foul off pitch after pitch and earn walks – that’s why you see his BB% in the 20’s. I think there is a shadow of the above-average hit tool that was his supposed ceiling. He’s just clearly very raw. He does have good speed at present, and a shot to remain at SS. It’s a good toolkit for sure. But hobby-wise it’s hard to see where there’s much power projection, so I’m only giving him a middling ceiling. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6 Both
Tier None
Luis De León, P, 21
De León’s command has fallen apart in the second half of the season, which has had an austere affect on his performance, but this is not who I think he is. To me, the lefty has the goods to have a ceiling much closer to what he did in his first 13 starts, where he compiled a 31 K% vs a 8 BB%, and held batters to a .216 average. He certainly has the stuff for it. His slider is an absolutely wicked offering, especially to fellow lefties, and may end up as a double-plus pitch. His fastball, likewise, has excellent potential coming in at 94-95 MPH with some sink. His change has potential to be average, but like many young pitchers it’s a bit firm at present. Lefties with multiple quality offerings are hard to come by, so he’ll be given every chance to stick in the rotation. He just needs to not be who he’s been since mid-June, because a 18 BB% will not work, even in a bullpen role. We’ll see how he adjusts in the offseason – command questions are looming very large right now. He’s an intriguing dart throw from a hobby perspective, because he does have that high-K upside. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5 Auto Only
Boston Red Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Starlyn Nunez, 18, 3B
A minor IFA signing last year, Nunez was massively impressive in the DSL and was moved stateside for 2024. This year was a mixed bag. He still looks like a kid – there’s a lot of strength to be added to his frame, and when he does, I think the game will come easier. The bones of a good swing are there – he already has good bat speed and his hands are quick to the ball. It’s an uppercut swing to a fault though. There’s a ton of fly balls (60% total!) to the pull side in his batted ball profile – really good for power, but he’s not truly a masher at this point. He could be with added strength, but I’d like to see how he develops without that being who he’s perceived as being. Why? Because he’s really good at making contact! It’s a sound swing! He was hyper aggressive last year, but he dialed it back a bit this year too. It doesn’t seem like he’s too big of an adjustment away from being a legitimate well-rounded offensive force. This wasn’t a down year in total – he still had a .180 ISO and a sub-20% K – he just proved he was raw. And as a dart throw of a signing, should we really be surprised? I’m very, very much on board with his being a hidden gem. Red Sox fans don’t miss often, but if they weigh this year significantly more than last, there could be a buying opportunity for the masses. ‘Cuz most of us aren’t paying Boston market prices. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8 Both
Yordanny Monegro, 21, P
Monegro was fantastic last year, earning two promotions up to High-A with a K% well into the 30’s and a BAA under .200. This year he’s repeated those numbers in Greenville all year, but it’s been a wilder ride (an encouraging one!) to get there. At the beginning of the year he flashed some of the same highlights, but he had several rough outings where he just wasn’t crisp. But since his last rough outing July 2, he’s allowed as many earned runs as me, and pitched 39 more innings (as of 9/2). It’s truly a great development for a pitcher who’s still coming into his own. He’s not physically mature yet, so he’s being treated gently, never exceeding 5 innings or 90 pitches. That workload piece of the puzzle may, in fact, be the biggest remaining hurdle to clear. His four pitch mix is firming up nicely. His fastball that he mostly uses away and up in the zone is into the mid-90’s with regularity. He has a high-80’s slider and split change that both move mostly downward but in opposite directions. He caps all that off with a slow curve with fantastic vertical movement. He has a really good feel for spin and, as his command has improved as the year has gone on, there’s more and more confidence that his projection is better than a #4 SP. That said, he is only at High-A, and he will not have built up enough workload to be a rotation option for Boston next year (he’s only tracking for around 80 innings this year). If everything continues trending as it is, an age-23 potential debut is probable and very palatable for the hobby. I’m hesitant to give any pitcher in the low minors such a high ceiling, but the team context helps me bump it. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 7 Auto Only
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Vladimir Asencio, 17, OF
The Red Sox took a shotgun approach to the IFA market this year, signing 15 players for six figure bonuses – Asencio was tops as a $1.00 MM signee. I’ll get straight to the point here and here to say to Red Sox fans – there are high ceiling IFA’s in your class, but it’s already clear Asencio isn’t one of them. He was well regarded in his class, but it was for his hit tool, not projectability. It’s clear he wasn’t ready for the physicality of pro ball, even just the DSL. It’s a swing that sells out for contact; he was regarded as “the hardest player to strike out in the class”. Well, that’s equated to a 24 K% – not great. It’s because his body has so little physical development. He looks like a 5’10” normal skinny kid, not necessarily an athlete. He’s shown good speed on the bases, so with the added strength he desperately needs, maybe that ticks up to a tool that can help carry him? It’s more likely to be that hit tool that he was signed for that floats him up levels though, and that ain’t happening until 2026 at the earliest. Sure to be a slow riser and not having a great ceiling makes him, at 17, already almost a non-factor for the hobby. Topps has made plenty of strange choices with this checklist, but this one was actually fair as the Red Sox top J15. We don’t usually put first year DSL players down here, but I’m intentionally bumping him down to the top of Tier None just as a warning flag to Sox fans. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 2-4 Both
Fraymi De Leon, 19, 2B
Back in 2022 De Leon was a seven-figure J15 – he had base cards in 2023 Bowman. In that preview we remarked that his speed and defense were his best tools, and that his offensive potential was very limited. All of this remains true. For a small-statured prospect with a very flat swing plane, De Leon’s contact numbers are pretty poor. He has a big leg kick, but it’s just a timing mechanism - he gets minimal coil. He drives with his back foot and trusts his hands to get to the ball. So it’s a pretty sound swing all told. The problem is there’s so little physical strength. No strength with no coil to manufacture bat speed equates to a tough time in full season ball. I think added strength does fix this, and he will add it as he heads into his age-20 season. Power will still be minimal, but he could maybe hit his first stateside HR next year. Though he was used primarily at 2B this year, that’s not a position he’s locked into and he’s a great defender – organizations don’t promote players who are struggling offensively to High-A without reason after all. Speed, even though it’s not translating to the bases to an extreme extent, remains a positive attribute. Just as he did in the set where he had base cards, in this set where he has autos he’s not a strong hobby name, especially without the 1st Bowman logo. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Marvin Alcantara, 2B/SS, 19
The Red Sox hit a nice little gem for 30k in the 2022 J15 period. That’s not to say he’ll ever have any broad hobby interest, but he’s a pretty good baseball player. It’s mostly tied to his defense – there’s a legitimate chance it ends up as a plus tool in the middle infield. But as it’s not truly an elite asset, by itself that one tool can only carry him so far. An MiLB role player for the next two years? Definitely. He’s been at Low-A all year where he’s on the young side of normal for level. He swings with a flat swing plane – contact is the name of the game with him, and he’s an aggressive swinger. It’s an all fields approach already too, which is nice. There’s room to add strength to his frame, but there’s not enough presently to convert enough of those batted balls into hits. Cobbling the aggressive approach together with the lack of power, it’s only a wRC+ that’s hovering around 80. He’s a fair prospect to watch the offensive progress of to see if he can make it to the majors eventually, but he definitely won’t be a fast riser and he definitely doesn’t have a high ceiling. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Brooks Brannon, 20, C
Topps card-wise, Brannon was first seen in last year’s Bowman Chrome release where he was a base-only subject. He had just flashed a sample where he hit 6 HR in 17 games, and our write-up on him was probably overly positive. That 17 games was a *season* sample for Brannon, as he had gone out with a back injury. This year, his season debut was delayed because of knee surgery. Since returning he’s played at Low-A and looked really mediocre. His swing is built for line drives, with enough strength that in theory a good number of them go for extra bases. That’s a good approach, but it’s damaged by the fact that he chases far too much, and doesn’t make enough contact in general. What I had perceived as a good power ceiling has trailed off as a result too. If he has shown himself to be a better defensive asset, the optimist’s projection to 45-hit/50-power would still be a fringe MLB catcher. But it’s not been quality defense, and even though Johanfran Garcia went down early he’s not playing even half of his games as a backstop. That could absolutely be a post knee surgery recovery plan, but he’s a guy we want to stay behind the dish – that gives him his best shot at advancement. In my eyes his hobby status has taken a sizable hit in a year’s time, and his not being a Bowman 1st hurts that further. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Luis Guerrero, 24, P
Guerrero is one of 13 Chipola JC players to be drafted in the last five years (including Cam Collier), taken in the 17th Round of the 2021 Draft. Born in the Dominican, he grew up in Boston and it’s fair to think that as one reason they were interested in taking him as a late round flier. Because he’s physically hindered by a childhood injury he’s a pure reliever, but he’s a pretty good one. He’s been at AAA Worcester all year, where he’s regularly in the high 90’s with his (flat) fastball and gotten loads of swing-and miss on his splitter and sweepy slider. There’s no doubt he’ll be able to strike MLB hitters out at a nice clip. The bigger question is whether his command and poise on the mound will be enough to stick there as a solid bullpen piece. Guerrero should see time in Boston next year at the latest, as he’ll need a 40-man roster spot this offseason. In a bubble he’s not a good hobby name, but the proximity and hometown aspects play a sizeable role here. I’d actually expect some moderate hobby interest. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Naoyuki Uwasawa, 30, P
I don’t really know what Topps is thinking with this one, putting a 9 year NPB vet in a prospect set. I know he technically came over as a prospect because he signed a minor league deal in January with the Rays – but it’s a technicality. Since he didn’t make the Rays 40-man out of Spring Training, he executed a clause in his contract to force a trade to a team that would give him a 40-man spot, which was the Red Sox. Topps didn’t care about any of these goings on that are highly reflective of a fringy arm even though they were watching it – they did get his team updated for the set. Uwasawa has a long history to pull from at least. With a fastball topping out at 90 MPH, he’s always been a finesse pitcher through and through. He mostly throws a high-80’s cutter and mixes it with the four seam, a slider, and curve. He’s trying to induce weak contact. It worked really well in Japan where he was a mid-rotation piece. But in AAA, hitters just aren’t fooled as easily. Sure, he still doesn’t give up many homers, but he’s walking too many batters and giving up too many hits, even in the relief role he was quickly relegated to. Bluntly, the stuff isn’t good enough. The Sox gave him a MLB debut, so he’ll forever be able to claim he made it to the highest level in America. But I can’t imagine he stays here past this year. I’m crying shenanigans with Topps putting him in this product. They knew basically who he was and saw him move to a strong card market so included him anyway. Don’t fall for it Sox collectors, unless you’re a completist. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 1 Both
Chicago Cubs
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Fernando Cruz, 17, SS
Signed for the third highest bonus in the IFA class at $4 MM and matched by his pedigree, there are lofty expectations for Cruz. A potential 5-tool SS from the Dominican, it’s a little hard to see, but he is showing some signs of that promise in performance already. The defense and speed are clear – there is at least above average projection in both of those areas. At the plate, balance issues abound. He looks like he’s trying too hard up there and not letting his plus athleticism shine. He’s trying so hard to pull the ball into oblivion (with a swing that’s a bit long) that he often misses in hilarious fashion, typically not engaging his lower half properly. This is a problem that can be fixed by maturity and coaching – all he has to do is listen. The natural bat speed and raw power are there. He just needs significantly more development to access it in games. What will his hit tool look like? I dunno. That’s a bigger question – it’s harder to project. While at 5’11” he’s not tall in stature, he does have significant projection remaining. He’s around 180 now and could easily get to 195-205 without losing mobility. It’s a great frame. Don’t expect a quick ascent with Cruz – he’s going to take awhile to cook in the low minors. Don’t temper expectations yet either though – most everything he was scouted for is there in some aspect. He’s still a Top 10 name in this product. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7-9 Both
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Mason McGwire, 20, P
Because he’s the son of an MLB legend he’s automatically not on the bottom rung for the hobby, but the 2022 8th Round pick’s chances of reaching the majors aren’t great. He was absolutely expected to be a development project when drafted and it’s fair to ignore a lot of what he’s done. But there’s no positives that have been sustained as of yet. To date this year, he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out. He was relegated to the Low-A bullpen in June and sent to the Development List in July, where he reworked his pitch mix. He does have a developing fastball that’s into the mid- 90’s now and a 6`4” frame to work with, but it’s nothing like his dad’s physique. There’s still some maturation of his body to be had yet. Nobody knows what pitches he’ll have or how effective they have a potential to be at this juncture – not even Mason. I’d normally suggest a full ignore on a player like this until we see him develop a bit, but if you’re interested in chasing the bloodlines, go for it! Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Chicago White Sox
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Abraham Nunez, 18, OF
A 700k signer in last year’s J15 period, Nunez rode a great DSL season to the Complex this year, where he didn’t quite level up, but it was still a good year overall. He had base cards in May’s Bowman release (his autographs are here), where we remarked that he has a great frame with good present speed who’s hit tool was ahead of the power at present. All of that remained true after his year in the Complex. He’s still not much developed physically – power hasn’t really shown up yet. The only difference is that aggression got in the way of his ability to make contact and get on base just a bit. It’s still quality contact when he connects. It’s a nice swing that with added strength should provide ideal launch angles. He even added a bit of a leg kick that should help with timing. I see no reason to move him either up or down based on where we had him in May. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8 Auto Only
Tier 3
Eduardo Herrera, 17, 3B
The White Sox top J15 this year who signed for $1.8MM, it’s easy to see how he got to where he is: raw power. Herrera has a ton of present strength. But his muscular 6`3” body is bereft of significant speed, he outgrew SS before signing, and hasn’t quite adapted very well to 3B yet - but he'll be given a bit more time there. Nobody likes an 18 YO first-base only prospect with so much financial investment. In fact, most everything about Herrera is raw. His swing is long and he can’t get his timing quite right on most anything. It’s shown in games to the tune of a sub-.270 SLG. That’s not something you expect from someone who looks like he does! It’s just raw, raw, raw with Herrera. Developing real baseball skills over the next few years (likely at the DSL next year at least) is paramount. For now we just have a bag of projection without much else. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7 Both
Jurdick Profar, 17, SS
The brother of Padres outfielder Jurickson, Profar signed this winter for 700k. He’s SS for now but his body is a bit too stout and his foot speed is a touch too slow to profile there long-term. His lower half is filled out already. In the game I saw from early July he disconnected his lower half with every swing – his hands did all the work, and they weren’t perfect either. But since then he’s cleaned it up quite a bit – it’s a pretty clear shift. Before July 15 he had a 27 K% and ~.100 ISO. Since? 15 K% and a ~.150 ISO. All the while he’s employed a very disciplined approach - his OBP on the season is near .400. If he can continue doing things like this, adapting on the fly to execute his hit-first mentality successfully, it will take him far. His frame doesn’t have a lot of room to add power – and like I said it’s not the primary focus of his game – but some could come organically if he continues to find more barrels. He seems like a guy who will stick around for a long time in the minors, but whether he makes the leap to being a legitimate prospect is a fair question because of lack of projection. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6 Both
Tier None
None
Cincinnati Reds
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Adolfo Sanchez, 17, OF
At $2.7 MM, Sanchez signed the sixth-richest bonus of the 2024 J15 period – he was a consensus Top 10 name in the class. It was based on a great projectable hit tool with some power and a great OF arm that can stick in CF. I’m not so sure on the defense, but his speed is playing as just average thus far and he’s already fairly well built in his lower half. I would think that’s likelier to tick down than up at this juncture. Sanchez is 6’1” and his swing mechanics are sound and he gets good bat speed, but nothing has translated to games yet. It’s a swing that requires good barrel manipulation – a skill that’s learned over time. It seems like there’s a lot of holes in his swing at present up in the zone. If he doesn’t make solid contact, there's no contact at all. Look no further than a SwStr% over 40! He’s likely going to have to flatten out his swing path (it’s quite the uppercut right now) to show a semblance of that hit tool being one that carries him. Once he does we’ll see how his swing translates to power, but I think there should definitely be some. Right now everything is very, very raw. I’m kicking him down two notches from where his pedigree would normally have him because of his having less dynamism than expected, and the longer development track. He’s still a worthwhile name for the hobby though. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7 Both
Kyle Henley, 19, OF
Henley was the Reds’ 14th Round pick last year, and he could quickly become an interesting hobby prospect with a little more development. Henley has elite speed – he stole 35 bases in 53 complex games and played every one of those games in CF. It’s a true carrying tool to hang his hat on. Henley is always going to be thin, but there’s room in his 6’2” frame to add wiry strength – that’s what he needs to move forward and be an interesting prospect all by himself. He got beat a lot this year despite a contact-oriented swing (32 K%) for a few reasons. First, his feel for the barrel is still developing. Added strength in his upper body and hands should help with that. Second, he’s hyper aggressive and chases a lot. Maturity should help with that. But even with all these flaws, take a look at the results – a neutral wRC+ (add in the SB threat of it all and it’s definitely a positive offensive value), a .372 OBP, and 17 XBH in those 53 games. Ground balls are a feature, not a bug, of his game and he executes that plan very well already – he only had 15 FB%. What else can he give us if he’s able to make more contact? I think a positive answer to that question is something that’s quite interesting for the hobby, even though it’s not a fantastic ceiling. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6 Auto Only
Sheng-En Lin, 18, 3B/P
The Reds had enough IFA money remaining to sign the Taiwanese Lin for $1.3 MM in June of 2023, but he didn’t play that year due to injury. Though he hasn’t pitched yet in pro ball, the amateur scouting mostly had his ceiling as a pitcher as higher than that of a hitter. That’s something to keep an eye on for next year as it could A) slow his development B) change his outlook in hobby terms. I have to treat him just as a hitter because it’s been two years since he’s seen a competitive mound. His best tool as a position player is his arm. It’s a cannon that works really well from third – they even tried him in CF for a few games. White he does have good speed and is a modest threat on the bases, it’s not truly a tool to help carry him. If he succeeds as a hitter, it’ll be because his hit tool ticks up significantly. There’s something there, but it’s really raw. His swing does not really engage his lower half by design – like a lot of hitters from Asia the goal is barrel-first, everything else after. So it’s all about hand positioning. The issue right now is that there’s a lot of movement in those hands in his setup. He moves his hands from just past the midpoint of his body to a more traditional coil position – it’s hard to be consistent with knowing exactly where that barrel is with so much movement. It’s also not a great coil, and I’ll agree with the scouting that poor bat speed is the main cause of what’s likely a lower offensive ceiling. I will say though, that when he does make contact the ball is struck very well. The feel for the barrel is excellent – he just doesn’t make enough contact. The timing has to be perfect. It’s really hard to project Lin as a Major Leaguer right now. His arm talent is special but his hit tool needs to be the one to carry him if he’s going to be a hitter, and it’s extremely raw. There should still be good hobby interest because of all the intrigue about being a two-way player, so I’ll tentatively give him an above-average ceiling. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
Adam Serwinowski, 20, P
Taken as a prep from South Carolina in the 2022 Draft, Serwinowski has made excellent progress for such a late, unheralded pick. He’s a big 6’5” lefty who attacks hitters with a funky delivery and presently a mid-90’s fastball, but there’s room for that to tick up yet. It’s easily a plus projection on that pitch. He also has a slider (sometimes more of a curve) that has a ton of movement, and that could likewise be a plus pitch. What he doesn’t have at present is a third pitch of any kind. It’s been fine at Low-A – hitters are hitting under .200 against him, and he’s got a great K%. But as he moves up, he’ll need something – a change, a cutter, etc – to keep those more advanced hitters honest. His command also isn’t great, but it’s in the normal range for a 20 YO, so not concerning. Sleepers like this are what make Bowman Chrome interesting. Give me a guy with an elite tool, an elite pitch, who’s a ways away on the refinement – and let’s decide whether to buy in now and see how he grows in a few years’ time. He’s definitely a worthwhile buy, and he should be cheap. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5 Both
Bernard Moon, 19, 2B
A 16th Round prep draftee who doesn’t sign an overslot deal usually doesn’t come with much expectations. That being the case, Moon has already exceeded them in posting a 124 wRC+ in the Complex this year. He didn’t get a bump to Low-A at the conclusion of the season – a little disappointing, but he’s sure to be there next year. Moon is 6’1” but has a stocky, mature frame already without much physical projection remaining – all his improvements will come on the baseball acumen side. His swing looks really sound. It’s a simple setup and he uses that physicality well to generate solid bat speed. His swing plane is fairly flat which leads to a lot of ground balls - that’s not a great fit for his below average speed. He’s an aggressive hitter who does chase quite a bit which leads to a higher K% than you’d like to see, but it’s fine for the Complex. All of these issues (except speed) can be helped with experience. The question now is, how will he adapt to a change in levels? It very well may be that his success was just tied to being more physical than others at the level. That’s a question to be answered next year, and one I’m eager to see answered. Being limited to 2B narrows his path forward further, but it’s the bat we’re buying here. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5 Auto Only
Alfredo Alcantara, 18, SS
Let me start by saying that though he’s played a lot of SS, Alcantara will absolutely be moved off the position sooner rather than later. He’s very thick in his lower half to the point where it looks like bad conditioning, and his 5’9” frame is undersized for the position. He’s also not fleet of foot. On the offensive side Alcantara loads up with a massive inverted leg kick to create coil – it’s a big ‘ole moving part that’s a primary cause to his strikeout rate being so poor – 36% at the Complex this year. As you can imagine such a motion does create a lot of bat speed – at his best he can hit the crap out of the ball. But usually his ball striking is imperfect. The fly balls are outs and the ground balls are hampered by his below average speed. He does have a decent plate approach for his age and a significant financial investment – he’ll be given plenty of chances to hone his swing. But he’s very raw. If he makes it to the majors he won’t look anything like he does now, and I don’t know where his projection will come from. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Blake Dunn, 26, 2B
A former 15th Round selection from Western Michigan (this writer’s alma mater), Dunn has certainly outstripped that station. He’s made his debut with the big club (18 AB’s in two stints), but I want to talk about last year first. That’s when he really broke out and proved he’d be ready to serve an OF role in short order. All told he slashed .322/.425/.522 across High-A and AA while stealing 54 bases and mostly playing CF. Sure, there’s a lot of mirage within that and he struck out quite a bit, but there’s enough impact to at least say he deserves a shot to be a sparkplug-type. Turning the page to this year, and I see a guy who’s been through a bit. He took time adjusting to AAA, showed improvement, got called up to the majors, sent back down and got hurt after a week, called back to the majors after just three games post-injury, then sent back down after a short stint. It was a wild ride, but one that’s been steadily at AAA since mid-July. Since early August he’s been on fire, collecting 18 hits in his first 13 games. There hasn’t been much impact in that hot streak though, and I wonder if this is closer to what we should expect when he gets his next crack in Cincinnati. Anyway, I’m waxing on about the guy because it’s fairly rare for a guy from my school to even make it to majors (Keegan Akin and Adam Rosales are the last two), no less have a significant career . Dunn has a shot at that, even if it’s just as a 4th OF. As a newly-minted 26 YO he’s not a significant hobby name. But I don’t care. Stay away. Give me all his cards. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 3 Both
Dominic Pitelli, 22, SS
Taken in the 7th Round out of Miami in last year’s draft, Pitelli was quickly handed the reins at SS in High-A then moved to AA after just 55 pro games. He’s a perfectly serviceable SS because he has great quickness, but I wonder if he’s better suited at 2B where he’d be above average. His speed plays really well into his offensive game – he’s a pesky SB threat, and his short, quick contact stroke and willingness to bunt help him get on base. He’s adept at going to all fields, as you’d hope of one with his experience and style of play. Going back to college he’s shown himself to be a really aggressive swinger to the point of being overeager – there’s a fair amount of swing and miss, and he doesn’t draw the amount of walks you’d like to see from a tablesetter. It’s a hit tool that’s on the border of average and fringe – if he can be a bit more patient, the MLB floor would more easily be apparent. Without power being part of his game he’s not a strong hobby name, but I would bet that he sniffs the majors at some point in the next few years provided his ability to make contact doesn’t go backwards. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Carlos Sanchez, 19, SS
Sanchez is treading water, moving slowly backwards as the sea slowly consumes him. The sea in this metaphor is other prospects that are more dynamic than he. Sanchez began this year at Low-A, then got hurt, and upon activation, played out the rest of the Complex season before being promoted again.This is our second time seeing Sanchez in Bowman, the first being in the May release this year, so his autographs here should still have the 1st logo. Back then we remarked about his moderate success but lack of a true carrying tool. This season has been a step back from that, as now it’s nothing resembling a carrying tool – he’s not a speedster, not a strong defender at 3B or SS, his K% has shot up to 30%, and he only has 9 XBH in over 250 PA’s. He does get on base, so the Reds can keep him around in the low minors for another year or two to see if anything else develops. But it’s a small solace and a fading profile. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 2 Auto Only
Cleveland Guardians
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Robert Arias, 17, OF
The Guardians top 2024 J15, Arias inked his deal for $1.9 MM. He’s a traditional Guardians player whose value is heavily weighted in his hit tool. It’s already showing a bit too, as evidenced by a sub-10 K% in the DSL. There’s a lot to be desired on his pitch selection and quality of contact still though – this isn’t a surefire double-plus hit tool or anything like that. He has a swing that sells out for contact, but there’s enough whip for some juice to the pull side. It’s not really a traditional, fluid contact setup & swing– he throws a bunch of body parts together and just makes it equate to some kinda contact at an excellent rate. Currently it looks like he’s trying to hit the ball on the ground to let his speed shine, and not do damage on every pitch. That speed should remain a factor on the basepaths as his body matures. There’s also not a lot of strength right now and his body is not mature. There’s a lot of steps Arias has to take to ensure his future as a MLB ballplayer, but it’s a very nice toolkit. As for power, it might end up as below average, and that would make him interesting for the hobby, considering he is so dynamic in other ways. Guardians fans (can you hear me?) should be in on him, but for such a high-pedigree J15 he’s on a lower rung for the hobby at large. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7 Both
Tier None
Yaikel Mijares, 18, SS/3B
After a successful DSL season last year, Mijares moved to the Complex this year where he faced some adversity. He’s short with a small frame with some strength, but it wasn’t enough to keep up with the increase in talent, and did not improve as the season went on – all told it was a K% over 30. My main issue is that he didn’t look raw at the plate and struggled that much. His swing is really sound. He stays within himself and won’t sacrifice the contact-ability he has to find extra juice. He does have a good plate approach, and some natural power already with his easy uppercut swing. I just don’t think it’ll work at higher levels unless even more added strength (which his body has room for) cures it. He’s somewhat like Carlos Jorge before he muscled up, but Mijares lacks the safety net of speed that Jorge has. I certainly understand the appeal of a player like this, but it’s too much risk for me. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Andrew Walters, 23, P
It’s been almost all positive vibes for Walters this year. A pure reliever, he was in Bowman Draft last year where we remarked that he needed a second pitch to make it to the majors, but it could happen quickly. He still doesn’t have a great second pitch (his cutter-ish slider), but his high-90’s heater has him knocking on the door at AAA already. Look, hobby-wise at large he’s not interesting, especially because his autos here won’t have the 1st Bowman logo, but team collectors should find his inclusion here interesting at least as a speculation on a future high-leverage reliever. Cleveland does not have a strong team collector market though. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 2 Auto Only
Colorado Rockies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Eriel Dihigo, 17, 3B
Hailing from Cuba, Dihigo was a 550k signee in the January 2024 IFA period. Right now he’s a lean 6’2” who has good speed and a contact approach. Signed as a SS, he hasn’t played the field at the position to date, but he’s fine at 3B for now. Though he makes a good amount of contact and that speed has served him well with the low-launch angle he has, his swing is a bit of a mess. He tends to engage his hands too soon - there’s a lot of impact loss. Even if the goal is just contact on the ground, we want it to be hard contact. His stride employs a big leg kick, but he sometimes disconnects it from the rest of his swing…so…why does that need to be there? Finally, all of this asynchronous movement puts a lot of effort into the back half of his swing, causing him to lose balance at times. As you might think – he is a bit pull-happy and struck out on an outside pitch in my look. Dihigo does have a decent approach at the plate – he’s already not afraid to take his walks. It’s a good start, but there’s a long, long way to go – and a lot will change as his body matures too. I wouldn’t read too much into his success in the DSL. How he does in Complex, but especially Low-A will determine if he has any ceiling. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7 Both
Tier None
Derek Bernard, 19, OF
A small six-figure bonus in the 2022 IFA period, the Dominican repeated the DSL in 2023 despite solid bottom-line results in 2022. He did strike out a hair too much and lacked a defensive home, so it was fair. The 2023 season was a truly great offensive season for Bernard in the DSL, full stop - it was a 157 wRC+. But it wasn’t a season that necessarily foretold great things - he still didn’t have a defensive home, and he still swung and missed quite a bit. This season in the Complex that negative tendency became the worst it’s been – he posted a K% over 30 - it was a result of both chase and zone whiff. He’s also now no longer in the dirt at all – he split time between RF and DH. He does have the ability to do damage when he makes contact. A stout 5’11”, it’s a longer swing (especially for someone with such short levers) but he has a good feel for the barrel and is already excellent at making solid contact to all fields. His power tool is well ahead of his hit and it’s already playable power, but it’s not over-the-fence power, and I don’t know if it ever will be. I’d say the bottom-line results of this year are a bit deceptive – he’s not as good as the .296/.360/.440 slash shows. As his defensive path also seems to be limiting by the day, he’s not a guy I’d prefer to take a shot on in this product. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5 Both
Jeremy Ciriaco, 18, SS/2B
Ciraico was a 500k signer in 2023 who’s DSL statline looked OK last year, but in looking at him he lacks any physicality – so that’s likely why he returned to the same league this year. He’s also really young for his class, just having turned 18. At 5’10”, he is undersized for a SS and he still lacks physicality, but his baseball acumen has definitely increased this year. His speed has ticked up to being a true weapon on the basepaths. At the plate, it’s a simple swing that’s geared for contact. He’s not great at finding the barrel yet, but it’s no accident when he goes the other way with pitches. He’s found success with this approach this year to the tune of a sub-15 K% and an OBP over .400. With added strength, I absolutely think something like this can continue as he advances levels. He does need to swing a hair less, but that’s a minor quibble that maturity usually resolves. Of course, we have no idea how much power he’ll end up with as currently, it’s almost none. That’s a major sticking point hobby-wise, and his poor-ish defense at SS narrows his real life path somewhat. But with speed and a hit tool to carry him, it’ll be interesting to see what physical maturation brings. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4-6 Both
Aldalay Kolokie, 20, OF
A minor IFA signing from Cuba last year, Kolokie, having just turned 20, hasn’t made much progress as a pro. He doesn’t strike out much at all, and does get on base, but man is there a lot of beating out of weak ground balls. His swing looks aggressive and full of effort, but he’s not comfortable coiling much and he doesn’t engage his lower half – it’s all arms and hands, and it’s all to the pull side. That’s why when you look at the solidly built (mostly corner) OF who’s hitting in the .320’s, it’s such a contradiction. There’s nothing left in terms of projectability here. He should go to the Complex next year, but I wouldn’t expect much unless a mental switch can be flipped. Age helps with his being a turn-off hobby-wise, but I’m even more turned off than that. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 2-4 Both
Bairon Ledesma, 19, 2B
I took one look at Ledesma, and without knowing, said “He’s a 2B, right?” Yep – he plays some 3B too but he has that traditional small, stout body of those who commonly man the keystone. Though there may be room for growth in his upper half, his lower half is filled out and he does not have much projection remaining. That’s a shame because while his contact skills are excellent and he makes good plate decisions, he’s completely vacant of power and doesn’t have significant speed. His swing is compact and sound, and he finds the barrel with ease – except for being a bit pull heavy, it's a well-rounded batted ball profile. I have no doubts that this part of his game can carry him for several more years in the minors, and his K% may even tick down to the 15% range in his times of success. But this year he only had 4 XBH in 38 games at the Complex. It's a major turn-off hobby-wise. He’s a slapdash prospect without much dash. He might eke out some positional versatility, but I think it’s more likely that he’s just a 2B. Signed for just 50k last year, there’s not much investment in his development either. He’s a fairly weak name in this product. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Detroit Tigers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Maikol Orozco, 18, 2B/3B
Orozco was one of four players the Tigers signed for relatively big money in the 2023 International Free Agent class, giving Orozco $900K. After already being a bit older than most of his fellow 2023 signers, strangely the Tigers had Orozco repeat the DSL in 2024. Perhaps the Tigers wanted to get him a lot more reps at third base, but I’m guessing there were other reasons that we’re not privy to. Orozco did end up with much better results in 2024 which can easily be attributed to a huge jump in BABIP, along with now being familiar with the level and older than his competition. Looking deeper, Orozco shows patience at the plate, regularly drawing walks at a 17% rate - side note - it’s very frustrating when half the tape you can find is him either not swinging at the wild pitches players regularly see in the DSL or simply being patient). That patience also showed up with what is now back to back seasons of a 17% K rate in the DSL. Orozco doesn’t have much pop, which likely means that second base is more his long term home than third base. He’s a top of the order profile with the willingness and ability to steal bases. While the Tigers spent some money on Orozco, repeating the DSL is a bit of concern and the lack of power caps his Ceiling. The floor of an everyday MLB player is possible, but you have to squint to see it, and when you do see it, it’s not very hobby friendly. Still, like most of the other DSL bats, he’ll get tossed into Tier 3 until we see more. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7 Auto Only
Tier None
Enrique Jimenez, 18, C
Jimenez was a 2023 seven-figure signing who had base cards in the Bowman release earlier this year. At that time we were tepid on his hobby outlook, and that remains to be the case. For the 2023 season he and Ricardo Hurtado split the time at 1B and C at the Complex, but it’s very clear that Jimenez is the superior defensive option behind the plate – he threw out 35% of baserunners. That’s great – especially for an 18 YO. Jimenez stands in at 5’9”, and he already has a thick catcher’s frame. There’s not a lot of leverage for true power, but he has a fairly sound swing, so he could get to some. He could do a bit better at keeping his lower half connected through his swing, but his strong hands made up for it and he put up league-average offensive numbers. His approach is also sound, and that should continue as he moves up levels. It was a great idea for the Tigers to not give the teen a full workload as a catcher his first year stateside – it gave him an easier opportunity for early success. I would call this a positive year for him! But I want to see how he handles the rigors of the catching position, and if he can grow as a hitter at the same time. If he can control the run game as his early scouting and performance indicate, Jimenez will be given every chance to be an everyday catcher, and his ceiling is squarely in the MLB. But hobby-wise, that ceiling is not high. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5 Auto Only
Ty Madden, P, 24
Madden had cards way back in 2021 Bowman Draft where he was taken with the 32nd overall pick that year, but Topps is revisiting him this year with autographs for the first time. It hasn’t been a smooth ride through the minors and even though he’s debuted in the majors as starter there’s a lot of relief risk yet. He was pounded with regularity in AAA because he’s mostly just a fastball-slider pitcher. That can work for a starting pitcher if he has elite command, but that is not the case with Madden. Both of those pitches are of good quality and can get plenty of whiff, when he misses locations as he often does, he’s making it too easy on these high-level professional hitters. He allowed a SLG over .500 at AAA this year. It’s not a matter of “he’ll be a good relief arm if he gets converted there full time”. He needs some real refinement in his command, and for a 24 YO, it’s not so easy. Being a non-1st Bowman in this release, I especially don’t think he’s a strong chase. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Samuel Gil, 19, 2B/SS
The Tigers went off book in giving the Venezuelan Gil $1.2 MM in the January 2022 IFA period – he was not regarded as anything close to one of the top names in the class. He’s a 5’8” small body who was initially deployed as a 2B, and while he’s worked quite a bit at SS, that’s where his future lies if we’re talking about an everyday role. He’s already quite thick in the middle and lacks enough quickness to handle short at higher levels. There’s no power here. Gil’s game is to use his good hands and easy, flat swing to take pitches to all fields, but he’s not at all there with swing decisions. That’s OK because he’s only 19 – his quality of contact should improve as he learns how to barrel more. The very high GB rate (~57%) he has is more a result of poor contact – that should tick down to the high-40’s with maturity. I kinda like him, but only if he’s basically free because collectors are looking at his present stats. He likely won’t be because that big bonus gives him “pedigree”. Any way you slice it, Gil does not have a high ceiling for the hobby or otherwise. Risk: 8: Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Clayton Campbell, 20, 1B/3B
Signed as a catcher out of New Zealand in 2022 for a low-six figure bonus, Campbell has proven largely unable to handle the position and is now spending more time at 3B, but it’s possible he ends up as a 1B-only. Unless Nikau Pouaka-Grego or Jason Matthews beat him, he would be the first Kiwi position player to reach the MLB. But that’s a longshot at this point. He has an uppercut stroke but doesn’t have a lot of natural bat speed or engage his lower half well. He’s very reliant on using his hands to find the barrel. His K% is at an acceptable rate, but as you might think, the path to quality contact with this swing is small. But hey – he’s only 20 – things have plenty of time to change. I’m more worried about his sliding down the scale defensively already. His body looks like that of a taller catcher-type, and he doesn’t have good speed. Without anything that looks like a tool to carry him close to the majors, I can’t get behind him as anything interesting for the hobby. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Anibal Salas, 18, OF
For a seven figure signer from last year, Salas’ ceiling looks a bit underwhelming right now. A switch hitter (the numbers didn’t bear it out this year, but) he looks much more comfortable from the left side. From both sides his swing gets a little too slappy for my liking – it’s a pull heavy approach. He has decent bat speed but it’s a flat swing and poor swing decisions really bring the entire profile down a few notches – his K% has been high both last year in the DSL and this year in the Complex. He also doesn’t have great speed, both on the basepaths and in the field. He’s squarely just a corner OF. At a stocky 5’11”, he’s never had an ideal frame, and that swing really hampers his power potential. Now, what he does have in his side is youth. Can he make a drastic improvement to his batting eye? That’s what he needs to put himself on the prospect map. It’s a hard thing for me to project. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Brady Cerkownyk, 21, C
Fellow Canadian catcher George Kottaras parlayed his time with Connors State College (an Oklahoma JuCo) into a late round selection in the Draft and a 7-year career in the majors. That’s what Cerkownyk is hoping to mirror, and it’s a fair ceiling for him as a prospect. That journey didn’t start at all for him at all this season, as he had Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow this spring and didn’t play at all. It was a bit of an odd choice to not give him a chance to play DH later in the year, because he does have offensive potential. In that JuCo season he hit .470 with 27 HR and only struck out 18 times in 245 PA’s. That doesn’t mean much for projection or plate approach or anything like that – but it does mean there’s some pop. Now we need to talk about his age and position and how far behind he is in development, which is far less positive. Catchers take a long time to develop, and Cerkownyk has none as a pro. He’ll also be 22 by the time he takes his first swing at Low-A, which isn’t a lock to be at the beginning of the 2025 season. He’s, at best, a slow burn of a prospect who plays the toughest position for the hobby to get behind. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Peyton Graham, 23, SS
First seen in 2023 Bowman with base cards, everything but his defense has trended negative or neutral. In our writeup before the 2023 season, we were still reflecting on his breakout season at Oklahoma and wondering how much more power would come if he bulked up to a third baseman’s build. Well, he opted not to do that (he’s still rail-thin) and now – whether there’s correlation or not – he’s fighting for his life in organized baseball. His swing path bears little resemblance to what it was at Oklahoma – it’s much flatter now, because that previous inability to connect with breaking balls reared its head and required a countermeasure. He did also adapt his approach with this and is a much more patient hitter now – he draws plenty of walks and makes quite a bit of contact. But for a player of his age and considering he’s only been at High-A, it’s very poor quality contact. He went out with an injury in June and is just now making his way back, so it’s not a full sample. But it’s two years of a downward trend now. If he doesn’t succeed with a fail-upwards promotion to Erie next year, that might be it for him. Every bit of the risk factor we assigned to him 16 months ago remains, and his ceiling has dropped substantially. Without the Bowman 1st logo on these autographs, he’s in the bottom 10 of anyone you could hope for. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 2 Auto Only
Bennett Lee, 22, C
A Tulane transfer to Wake Forest for his Junior year, Lee helped the Deacs excellent pitching staff to a College World Series appearance. That’s the best aspect of who he is as a player – calling games and framing. He’s not a particularly good blocker or particularly good at controlling the run game, but he does help his pitchers. That makes him a very valuable organizational catcher – I think the Tigers are glad to have taken him in the 6th Round last year. At the plate he’s very one-dimensional. He has an aggressive swing and tries to pull everything. At High-A, an approach like that is pretty easy to pitch around. His quality of contact is usually quite poor. To add to it, even though he swings hard his plane is too flat to generate much extra base power. All of this added up to wRC+ of just 73 this year, as of this writing. He’s a guy who should absolutely stick around in organized baseball for awhile. And who knows, maybe he ekes enough value out somewhere in his game to make it as a MLB backup catcher. For now though, he’s not a player that’s likely to make it to the majors. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2 Auto Only
Houston Astros
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Jake Bloss, 23, P
Bloss is a high floor mid to back-end of a rotation starting pitcher that was traded to the Blue Jays along with Will Wagner and Joey Loperfido for Yusei Kikuchi at the trade deadline. He has a four pitch arsenal led by a 93 mph fastball with characteristics that allow it to play up, namely a three quarters arm slot plus strong extension. His secondary options include a slider/sweeper, curveball, and change-up. The slider is the most effective pitch in the entire arsenal while change-up is the least consistent pitch. When he controls the fastball, especially up in the zone, everything falls into place. Against advanced hitters, it’s become more of an approach to paint the edges of the zone with the fastball and then get weak contact on the breakers and off-speed offerings. Already having debuted with Houston earlier in the year, and possibly getting some more innings in September with the big league club in Toronto, Bloss is one of the more known commodities in the product. If we had gotten him in 2024 Bowman instead of 2024 Bowman Chrome, there would likely be a bit more buzz given how he was having his way with hitters in the lower minors. All the way through High-A, he was putting up K rates of 29% or higher. Now that we’ve seen him against advanced hitters, there’s a lot less strikeouts showing up in the statline and on video. If we see some of that K upside return, there could be some Tier 2 consideration for Bloss. Until then, he’s pretty easy to rank as a Tier 3 pitcher which, without the strikeouts in the arsenal, is a pretty easy pass on spending much money on. Risk: 1 Ceiling: 5 Both
Zach Dezenzo, 24, 3B
A senior draftee in the 12th Round back in 2022 from Ohio State, Dezenzo is an athletically built 6’5” slugger. He has a deep crouched stance built for launching fly balls, and he does so successfully enough that he’s now in the majors. Though he’s posted good batting averages in the minors both this year and last, make no mistake that he’s a daddy hacker with the hit tool coming in a bit below average. He really uses his lower half well, and when his hands sync well he can really hit it a long way. But he’s got some holes in his swings up in the zone, doesn’t hit breaking pitches well, and going to the opposite field looks awkward and lacks authority. Defensively his athleticism outstrips his abilities – he’s played all over the infield (including SS in college), but the current profile is not that of a regular defensive player anywhere, which is important for playing time as he’s now with the big club. His straight line speed is pretty good and he’ll steal a few bases, but he’s not particularly quick. If you are interested in what may amount to be just a little more than a 1-dimensional masher (and many of you are!), Dezenzo is the prospect for you. But when we also throw in age considerations, he’ll be ignored by many in the hobby community. He carries a little higher risk than normal because he will be an up-and-down bat until he figures out his defensive home. Risk: 3 Ceiling: 5 Both
Waner Luciano, 19, 3B
My goodness does Luciano have great raw power – he’s launched some tape measure shots in his highlights. Of course, baseball is much more than a player’s highlights, and it’s been a real struggle for Luciano this year. Signed for a modest bonus in 2022, Luciano’s power was on display in each of those first two years, totaling an ISO over .200. But his problems this year are really just a magnification of his problems all along – poor quality of contact. Luciano uses a big leg kick to swing with vociferous authority and a strong uppercut in an attempt to yank the ball to LF. Strikeouts aren't a great concern, but when he makes contact and it’s not square, it’s either topped, or an easy fly ball. There’s not much in between, but he’s making an effort to find it. There was a period of time where he only struck out at an 11% clip – that’s nice for anyone – but it resulted in a 3 for 54 slump and a trip to the Development List. It was good to see him come back and look like his old self, but he was sent back to the Complex to continue to hone his swing in early August when the Complex league ended. Can he find a happy medium to get to better batted ball success? That’s the biggest question. It’s a pretty unique profile – the upside is clearly there, but his hit tool is still just a lump of clay. Now that the buy-in figures to be much lower, I’m really interested in him for the hobby. But he’s a dart throw, and one with no real floor. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
Nehomar Ochoa Jr, 19, OF
An 11th Round pick in last year’s draft, Ochoa’s adopted hometown Astros signed the Venezuela native for an overslot 300k. He looks and plays like a classic RF. He’s a big, muscular 6’4” with a great arm who still moves pretty well. At the plate he uses a toe tap to set up his swing, but it looks a little out of sync – it’s more a feature than a bug of his swing that he opens his hips a hair early – like he’s sitting back on a breaking ball on every pitch. The swing also looks stiff; he doesn’t coil much and it’s very dependent on his hands, though he does fairly well driving off his back leg and creating lift. The power is pretty easy, and if these plate issues get smoothed out he would be a legitimate prospect. As it is, he plays like a 19 YO late round pick should be – quite raw with lots of strikeouts and approach issues. He’s been challenged at Low-A since day one this year though. Hobby-wise, if he’s cheap I think he’s a nice high-risk dart throw. Just don’t go crazy. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5 Auto Only
Miguel Palma, 22, C
Palma strung together three solid years from 2021-23 in the lower minors, every season with a SLG over .400 and sub-20 K%. This year, his first in AA, has been mostly a downward trend, and included a month-long stint on the injured list. Hopefully it’s just a bump in the road. He’s still pretty young for a catcher at that level. There is some power and a below-average hit tool here – the rosiest of projections would have him as a second division MLB regular backstop – if only he were a good defender behind the dish. There are positive trends with his defense but it’s not close to MLB quality, and being 5’8”, the time he’s seeing at 1B seems more like a way to get his bat in the lineup than a future possibility. He’s also a plodder on the basepaths. As a bat that will only play at catcher and a long way to go in that regard defensively, this is not an interesting hobby name. He’s a likely backup catcher in the majors, but any more than that is more than I’m willing to project. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 3 Both
Will Bush, 20, C
After playing for a year at a Texas JuCo, Bush was drafted in the 16th Round in last year’s draft. There wasn’t anything he did that was exceptional in that year, but he is a large man (6’4”) for a catcher and did get on base a lot. His upper body is a complete statue at the plate in his load with a markedly high elbow. This makes his swing really long and stiff, and highly reliant on his hands – he’s fairly successful but it leads to quite a bit of low quality contact despite good bat speed. He also works counts deep with frequency, but it hasn’t paid off and resulted in elevated strikeout totals. Bush is not a quality defender at the plate at this time. He’s not a great blocker, and while some of this can be forgiven because it’s quite a jump from JuCo, he allowed 134 SB in 77 Low-A games. Bush was a good prospective get for being so late in the Draft. He’s given the organization a lot of innings this year at Low-A and recently was pushed to High-A. And the levers are quite intriguing if he can change his swing a bit to be more fluid, maybe get to more power. He’s just a long way away, and nothing in his game is screaming ‘MLB ceiling’ at this time. He’d be more interesting if his defensive path wasn’t so limited. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Pascanel Ferreras, 22, INF
Ferreras was baseball’s Mr. Irrelevant last year as the last pick of the 20th Round – it was an organizational filler pick. Sorry to be so blunt, it’s just the truth. He has no business being a selection for this product, but based on his performance, there is now a chance he makes it to the majors as an up-and-down utility-type (AKA Topps got lucky that he’s not truly irrelevant). He’s made it to AA based on performance already, and he’s proven that he can play all over the infield defensively. It’s been a bit of a struggle at the level and he’s striking out a bit too much for a player of his type, but he’s reset what we should all think of him for sure. At the plate he has an odd leg kick where he holds his leg in the air for almost the entirety of the pitcher’s windup. It works to set his rhythm, but it also hinders any ability to get to power in his 5’7” frame. Any juice he has is to the pull side, and based on the notable strength in his frame, not truly bat speed. That slow leg kick does allow him to go to all fields with ease. Should he carve out a path to the majors, it’ll be because his ability to make contact, notably smacking liners to the gaps, has increased and his foot speed has not decreased. His range as an infielder is fringy as it stands, and he’s not much of a threat on the basepaths. He’s not very interesting for the hobby, but the fact that he’s at all interesting is a pleasant surprise. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 3 Both
Kansas City Royals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Yandel Ricardo, 17, SS
The Royals’ top signer in this year’s IFA class, this $2.4MM man is a SS who was signed for his glove and power potential. The glove remains fine for now, but I don’t see any of that power potential yet. Most of it’s tied to his body not being at all physically mature. Right now his swing is not that of a professional – it’s all hands with little lower body involvement. All he’s trying to do is put bat to ball to whichever field he can – in other words, developing a feel for the barrel. That he already has an opposite field approach is nice, but there’s no indication that his swing will stay like this. He did have some success with contact – he is, after all, an elite athlete – but it wasn’t usually quality contact. He has a long, long way to go. There’s no reason to downgrade any of his game all until his body develops, and in fact what I saw was fairly…positive? Defensively he’ll be developed as a SS for the foreseeable future, and while his current speed is good we don’t know if it’ll stick as his body develops. He does have the toolkit of a high pedigree-type, but he’s very much still just a lump of clay. There’s likely considerable ceiling with Ricardo, but there’s better dart throws —and those that do who definitely have those loud projectable tools — for what figures to be the same price range. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7 Both
Tier None
Luinder Avila, 22, P
At no stop has Avila struck out over a batter per inning. That’s the one thing I can’t get past when I look at him and makes me uninterested. At a well-built 6’3” he has a starter’s frame and boasts a pitch mix with many different types – fastball that sits around 94, curve, slider, change and split. But it’s really just the blending of it all that makes it work. He’s the type of a pitchability arm that seems like he walks on the edge of a knife with below average stuff and at some point the superior talent will swallow him up, but even at AA it hasn’t happened yet. Below average stuff is not a death knell to being a productive major leaguer by any means when it comes with a well developed mix. Two things could improve his status on what I see as a future swingman – an uptick in command (it’s regressed this year at the new challenge of AA) and development of a true out pitch. I think it’s reasonable to assume that KC will give him starts in the majors next year should this success continue. Avila is currently out with (what seems like a) back strain – he’d be one of the better pitchers to watch should he be named to the AFL roster. He’s not interesting for the hobby at large, but for Royals team collectors, I think there’s a floor of a guy who will get to the majors. Risk: 4 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Milo Rushford, 20, OF
After a strong showing at the Complex in 2023, there were thoughts that the 2022 18th round pick could be a prospect on the rise coming into 2024. Rushford started the year at Single-A and things did not exactly go to plan with a 60% ground ball rate and a batting average that was barely above the YIKES Line at .116 (if the Mendoza Line is .200, I propose we call a the .100 batting average the YIKES Line). By the time June rolled around, the Royals pulled the plug and Rushford went back down to the Complex for what remained of that season. The Complex went only slightly better if you ignore the increased K rate (34%) as he almost got to the Mendoza Line by hitting .192. Not sure if there’s something going on behind the scenes with Rushford that has led to a very bad 2024 results-wise, or if he just wasn’t ready for his first pass at full-season ball. The profile at this point looks like org depth with a shot at a backup outfielder on the strong side of the platoon that can steal double digit bases. The swing is flat and whippy - a swing change may be in order if there is to be an everyday MLB player in the future here. Hopefully something comes up in off-season reports or he gets some Fall League at bats to give us better insight into what happened in 2024. Absent that, this is an easy one to avoid until we see some positive trends or an explanation behind the 2024 struggles. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Stone Russell, 20, 2B
Son of former Pirates (& current Tacoma Rainiers) manager John Russell, baseball is very clearly in his bloodlines and he’s been around the professional game his entire life, but it doesn’t exactly equate to pedigree in this case. Taken in the 18th Round as an older prep in last year’s draft, Russell is already 20 and only played in the Complex this year. As you can imagine as someone with his experience, he looked like quite the polished hitter at that level. It’s a sound, all fields contact-oriented swing. He occasionally gets outside himself and loses balance, but that’s not his major issue. The major issue is that, while he grooved a few balls over the fence because of that mature approach, there’s no real power, no real speed, and he’s not physically projectable. I think he absolutely will follow in his father’s footsteps in a life of baseball and it’ll be as a player for the next few years – but I don’t see much of a path to the majors. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Los Angeles Angels
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Joswa Lugo, 17, SS
The crown jewel of the Angels J15 class this year and a Top 10 IFA (at least in hobby terms), Lugo signed for $2.3 MM. He’s really looked the part so far. He’s a lean 6’3” and has played exclusively SS so far and looked good doing it – he’ll be given every shot to remain at the position. He has good present speed too. But the bat is what makes him super interesting. In the first AB of my look took an easy stroke that became a 370 foot liner that the CF chased down (it was a great play). He grounded out on an inside pitch in his next AB, but he did not miss the next inside pitch he saw – he effortlessly crushed it over the LF fence. There’s a ton of potential with his power. He needs to tone down his aggression and further hone his approach in general so his hit tool ends up good enough, but at 17 it’s all fine. The Angels aren’t great at development – the hope is that he can escape the stigma of being in this organization. But hobby wise, to me that seems like it just may be a little discount that affords a buying opportunity on a player with a superstar ceiling. Because there’s so much risk, he’s right at the top of Tier 2. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 8-10 Both
Tier 3
Juan Flores, 18, C
If I told you Flores was a hyper-advanced defensive catcher for his age with some offensive upside, where would you guess he’s from? Yep, Venezuela. They do, in fact, grow them on trees down there (don’t @ me). I’m going to go on and on about his defensive ceiling here, so skip down if you want. It was very apparent from Day 1 as a pro that Flores’ arm was special. Even with all that bad pitching in the DSL that sometimes put him in poor throwing positions, he caught OVER HALF of the runners who attempted to steal on him. This is the Angels here, so that was enough for them to (is it even aggressive for them?) start him this year at Low-A. There, he still nabbed over 30% of runners, and was promoted again in late June to High-A, where he’s STILL throwing out over 30% of runners. That part of his game will continue to carry him far by itself, but he’s a complete defender back there. He definitely makes some mistakes currently, but his blocking and framing and ability to handle a pitching staff are all on par or better for the level. Offensively, his time in High-A has been a bit rough and he’s still out there catching most days – it’s 700 innings total on the season for the teen. It’s fair to think he’s both a bit too challenged for the level, and worn down. Back at Low-A earlier this year, he managed a neutral RC+, which is a pretty big step up from what he had done in the DSL – it was an impressive achievement for an 18 YO. He’s a hyper-aggressive hitter with a big leg kick and swing built for line drives, and though he swings with vigor, he’s not particularly powerful unless he really grooves it. As you can imagine, at High-A those groovable pitches mostly evaporated, and the aggression became an approach issue. Flores will remain intriguing as he enters next year with fresh legs. Will he show organic growth on the offensive side like almost all players of his age do? It seems like a question with an obvious answer, even though this is the Angels. His hobby ceiling doesn’t seem enormous because of his position and the fact that his bat will likely never quite catch up to his glove, but I have faith already that he has a floor of reaching the majors. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6 Both
Greylin De La Paz, 17, 3B
De La Paz was a mid-six figure SS signee this year from the Dominican Republic. But as the Angels only have one DSL team and Joswa Lugo also plays SS and was their big get, he’s been at 3B this year, where his future likely lies anyway. He is over 6’, but looks shorter because of his broad shoulders. He has fairly short levers, and really builds a big coil with a high leg kick to manufacture bat speed. There’s a lot of effort in his swing. It works well for some players, but it’s not coming easy for De La Paz. He’s struggling to find much impact at present – I hunted to find a feed for a game where he had multiple hits, and they were both just well placed grounders. That’s not the intent with his swing construction. Now, he does have an approach up there. There’s a reason he got that bonus – there’s a bit of a hit tool and there should be some power with maturity. But who knows if it’ll ever develop in this system. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4-6 Both
Tier None
Raudi Rodriguez, 21, OF
Rodriguez, a Dominican native, was taken in the 19th Round of the 2023 Draft as a Georgia prep shortly before he turned 20. He looks really raw, even if we’re just treating him as a normal prep. He has present strength, but he doesn’t convert it well to bat speed and hits the ball on the ground and misses too much as a result. The reported good run times he had also did not translate to the basepaths this year. He also (likely) got hurt and missed the back half of the year – not what you want to see from an old-for-the-Complex level player. There might be some usable tools here, but the Angels are not the system to be in to form them into something that applies to baseball well. Take your dart throw elsewhere. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 2 Auto Only
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tier 1
Emil Morales, 17, SS
Morales would be the first player born in the Canary Islands to…wait…no need for trivia on this one. There’s not much more Morales could do to garner more hobby love before his first cards. Top J15 - check. Play a position of high interest - check. Team with a big collector base - check. Lead the DSL in HR (by 3!) - check. It wasn’t even just power – he was a complete offensive package who hit .342 (4th in the DSL), a .478 OBP (6th), and only struck out 5 more times than he walked. He led the league in wRC+ too of course. Don’t get too caught up in those exact stats, it is the DSL of course, but sometimes a guy who looks like the next coming is just the next coming. I truly believe it is actual baseball skill here and just not a guy who just out-muscled the league (but he is already quite strong!). He uses a sizable leg kick to set himself into an athletic position then gets his hands quick to the ball and unleashes an easy power swing – it creates massive exit velo and plays to all fields, though like many players of his age, he doesn’t go oppo much. He’s by no means a polished bat – he chases and misses quite a bit, but remember he’s just 17 and very much still learning the game. He plays SS now, but it would behoove him to add more mass so he can truly get to the 70 grade game power game the optimists peg him with, and that would have him moving to 3B. His speed is actually also pretty good right now, and there’s hope it sticks as an average asset and he’s a modest threat on the bases. There’s simply no facet of Morales’ game that definitely projects negatively, but we in the hobby would be fine with that if one did if it meant he develops into a 40 HR threat one day. I would not call him a 5-tool prospect, as the triple point of his retaining both above average speed and hit tool with the power is quite small, but nobody cares. The risk is that I’m wrong and he was just so successful because he out-physicaled the league, and his K% blows into the 30’s next year as more advanced pitchers get him to chase. But I’d put a wager on the advancement of his hit tool in the near-term, as it does with most prospects. I know everyone one will be on him as the #2 name in this set and that is absolutely correct in my assessment. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8-10 Both
Tier 2
Thayron Liranzo, 21, C/1B
Can we stop playing Liranzo at catcher? He’s never been a good defender there, and hasn’t grown in the last few years. I just want to see his bat in the lineup every day. He’s creeping ever closer to his ultimate position not mattering because his power is so special. His breakout 2023 season included a .562 SLG and 50 XBH (24 HR), and backed up by, many, many triple exit velocity digit hits and clear visuals of all-fields power. Sure, the K% was high, but a high BB% made up for it – it was still a .400 OBP. The first four months of this 2024 season was a different story in High-A at Great Lakes. His high-ish K% and BB% maintained, as did his batted ball profile. It’s a bit of a mystery exactly what caused him to only have 12 XBH in over 250 PA’s and hit .220. However, he was traded to the Tigers at the deadline, and that two hour drive from Midland to Comstock Park seems to have worked wonders (OK, it wasn’t the drive. It’s that he looks more relaxed at the plate and isn’t trying to force his swings.) In his first 15 games as a Tiger he put up video game numbers – a 1.318 OPS. It’s very nice to see. Now, we circle back to being a catcher, because after those 15 games he was shut down for a week due to the wear and tear of the season. I don’t like it – I’m a greedy prospect lover who likes his high ceiling bats play every day. He was clearly going to be well loved by the hobby in this release regardless, but this recent hot streak will allay the fears of many. Just keep in mind you’re buying the bat and the bat only. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7 Both
Elias Medina, 18, OF
If he didn’t start the year injured (undisclosed from what I could tell) I wonder if Medina would’ve been stateside. But the earlier start to the Complex season made it an easier choice to hold him at the DSL. Even now he may not be at full strength in his recovery, but he’s still looking like the same dude that slashed .313/.381/.553 last year. I likened his offensive performance last year to J15-mate Robert Calaz’s, and we all like him, right? Medina is absolutely not the same build though - he’s more athletic and not as physically mature. He’s listed at 5’10” but looks longer than that – and his raw power looks fairly easy. His speed is also at least above average at this juncture, and the Dodgers have mostly deployed him in CF (previously SS/3B) this year to take advantage of it. Like many of his age Medina is a very free swinger and misses plenty, but there’s no reason to reign it in when he’s having the batted ball results he’s having – and he does take his walks, so I’m eager to see how it all plays out against better pitching. I would think Medina is a candidate to start next year at Low-A. That would be quite the rise for a J15 that signed for just $177k in 2023. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7-9 Both
Tier 3
Jeral Perez, 19, 2B
Perez got off to a really hot start this year, which was good for me because I had called him out as a pre-season breakout candidate.But he’s slowed way down as the season has worn on. He was traded to the White Sox at the deadline, and the statline he’s put up in Kannapolis approximating a .230/.330/.410 slash is a more accurate representation of what he’s done since April. That’s not to say he's a less intriguing prospect – he’s just raw. Raw players get exposed at full season ball all the time. His main issue is that he doesn’t have a great feel for the barrel; something that will have to be learned through experience. It results in poor contact quality. He does already make pretty good swing decisions, and doesn’t miss much for a player of his age. I think his hit tool projection is better than his power. But if he takes healthy cuts, using little more than a toe tap to set himself in a pull-heavy (that also is a mark of the barrel-feel thing), line drive approach. If can just keep the power he has now, say a .160 ISO, and tick up as a hitter in total, he’s an MLB regular. But there’s room for a little more than that. There’s a chance he retains utility appeal on the defensive side, and while his speed is enough to make that declaration, he’s not really a threat on the bases. Because he’s now on a team that’s not great for the hobby or hitting development, and it’s also not the team he’s pictured with, buying opportunities should be abundant. He’s got above-average hobby potential – just realize he’s not the player and doesn’t project to be the player we saw at the beginning of this year. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6 Both
Alexander Albertus, 19, 3B
Albertus was only a minor signing in the 2022 IFA period, but he’s definitely escaped that with what may end up as a plus hit tool and a great baseball acumen in general. In the batters box there’s not a lot of traditional movement (big leg kick, moving hands), but he gets where he needs to be to attack the ball with impact or use his excellent discipline. He’s great at not chasing pitches he can’t do damage on. It’s clearly a line drive approach and he uses all fields already. With more experience and his 6’1” frame there should be a bit of power – but it might be safer to call him a future doubles king than truly having regular over-the-fence pop.. He’s moved off of SS to 3B now, but early indications are that he’ll be a solid defender there. As an acquisition of the White Sox in the Michael Kopech trade, Albertus now finds himself in a much lesser organization for development. But he’s already shown a lot of natural baseball ability, so perhaps organic growth will be enough for him to make it to a ceiling as an above average everyday regular. I think he’s a fair gamble to take a chance on even with the diminished team context. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6
Jaron Elkins, 19, OF
Back in the 2024 Bowman Preview, Elkins was an absolute unknown - there was more football video of him from his prep days than baseball video. We’ve now got a full season of Complex game stats and some video to go off of, and sort of what we expected is what we are seeing. A raw, athletic two sport toolsy athlete transitioning to baseball full time producing highs and lows. On the “highs” side, the speed is definitely there, which is what you would expect from a prep running back. I didn’t get the best looks at it, but I would not be surprised if timing confirmed it’s plus or better. There’s power in the bat as well, although we rarely got to see it because the hit tool is so raw at this point. Don’t let the .285/.412/.457 line fool you. There was a LOT of swing and miss in the video looks and it’s no surprise that he ended the Complex season with a 35% K rate. When he did put it in play, the speed really drove that positive triple slash and the accompanying BABIP of .471 as Elkins was able to put pressure on the defense on any ground ball. There was some positive with the hit tool trend as he hit safely in his final 13 Complex games, so hopefully that’s a sign of things to come. We’re looking at a power-speed, athletic corner outfield profile that will require significant steps with the hit tool to make it to the majors with any sort of regular role. With him being in the Dodgers org, the likelihood that happens is a lot higher than most other places. And the Dodgers believe in him, as they flew him from Arizona to Los Angeles to hit against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in a simulated game (in which he got 4 hits) during Yamamoto’s rehab. I’m keeping Elkins in Tier 3 with a major buyer beware tag. The Ceiling is still high, but the Risk is also super high. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7 Auto Only
Tier None
Justin Wrobleski, 24, P
A former 11th Round pick from Oklahoma State in the 2021 draft, Wrobleski has proven to be a great pick as he’s reached the majors as a starter. How many 11th Round picks can say that? (OK, that’s a bit disingenuous because he had just had TJ when he was drafted…anyway). His best pitch is a mid-90’s four seamer with good movement, which coming from the left side, is tough to pick up. He tinkers with his slider from batter to batter, having it toe the line between cutter and curve depending on the hitter. He even has a change as a third legitimate option. Facing the upper minors for the first time this year, Wrobleski wasn’t dominant, but he got by on polish and command. The Dodgers big club found use in that and called him up in July, where he’s largely been since and mostly employed as a five-and-dive type starter. He’s performed pretty well for the expectation of a back-end starter, but he’s not really striking anyone out. That’s a pretty good representation of who he is. It’s fair to level it up a little bit to a #4 SP-type with a 25 K% as a peak, but that’s still not a great hobby profile. He’s a good low-end add to the product and his floor is solid as a rock, but there’s not much hope he ever becomes a player with widespread hobby demand. Risk: 0 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Marco Corcho, 19, P
Ah yes, Marco Corcho, the player we’re all familiar with and wanted to see in this product – coming to an MLB bullpen near you in 2029, as a ceiling. Are you listening, Topps? Here we go: We don’t like IFA pitchers with no previous-year stateside experience in our hobby. The variance is wilder – usually on the negative side – than any other player type. We also don’t like relief pitchers in our hobby. The ceiling is lower than any other player type. Smash them together, and you get Marco Corcho. This year he had a good-for-a-reliever year at the Complex and was promoted to Low-A. That’s a nice accomplishment! Not many teen pitchers in full season ball. There’s no reporting on any of his pitch information, but from what I see in very limited video it looks like a sinker/slider combo, and I did see him strike out Lisbel Diaz, who’s a good prospect. Corcho has a thick build already, and, although he’s 6’2”, he doesn't get great extension. He LOOKS like a reliever, not a player who will work into being a starter as he matures. Definitely a hands off name for non-Dodger collectors. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 1 Auto Only
Miami Marlins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Andres Valor, 18, OF
I love Valor. It’s not really that anything he’s done is phenomenal – he’s not mature in really any manner – but he has a highly projectable frame and given us glimpses of 5 tool potential. His speed is definitely already present – having stolen 35 bases in 53 Complex games and playing mostly in CF is a clear indicator of that. His setup at the plate right now uses a big leg kick to create a massive amount of coil - he won’t need a device like that to create coil if he adds upper body strength. That should help let him stay more connected to the ground with his back foot and lift the ball more easily (most of his well-hit balls are of the lower launch angle variety right now). So what I’m saying is, the 25 K% he had in Complex is a legitimate result of what he’s showing, but there’s lots of room for that to tick down. I think those complicated mechanics are hiding a really smooth swing - his hands are quick to the ball and he has no problem finding the barrel (even if he is a bit pull heavy). He’s an aggressive hitter who’s not afraid to make the attempt to hit the ball as hard as he can in every at-bat with every swing. I love to see it with a player so young, but I also want to see how that approach grows with maturity. I would make a healthy wager that Valor sees success in the future, but it’s a broad spectrum of outcomes - some aren’t that of a high ceiling player. He’s certainly not showing power yet. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Yoffrey Solano, 19, 2B
In his third year of pro ball and his second year of Bowman cards (base in 2023 Bowman), Solano has always impressed with an ability to make contact. The last time we wrote about him he hadn’t begun his second year yet. There hasn’t been much development since then. First, we didn’t know his 2023 season was going to be a DSL repeat – somewhat surprising and disappointing considering he performed well. We also didn’t know that this second season would be blown up for two months by an injury. This year he did come stateside and continued to impress with an excellent 10.6 K% in the Complex. His swing is flat and very much contact oriented. He’s comfortable going to all fields from both sides of the plate with an aggressive approach and letting his good speed help him get on base. But to say this hit tool has projection to plus, there has to be some impact. With just 13 XBH in 40 games this year – that part just still isn’t there yet. At 5”10” there’s not a ton of physical projection but he can and should add strength to his upper body moving to full season ball next year. Defensively he’s already moved off of SS to 2B, which is a good long-term fit. There’s a middling MLB ceiling here but especially considering his autos in this set will not have the Bowman 1st logo, he’s not very interesting. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Jancory De La Cruz, 18, OF
Signed for 405k in January of 2023, De La Cruz hasn’t shown much in his two years in the DSL. Despite a high walk rate, he’s not a very patient hitter – he tends to swing early in counts given the opportunity. If you think he’s just trying to be aggressive and strike hard in a neutral count, that’s not the case — there’s not much ferocity in most of the swings that I saw. He’s just throwing the barrel out there. He’s trying to hit to the pull side almost exclusively with minimal lower body involvement, and it’s not the quick swing one needs to make that have much effect. That long swing does give him some pop when he catches the barrel, but the contact rate has been unacceptable for two years running now. There is some projection in his 6’2” frame, but I don’t think that matters too much considering his swing is a mess. He’s no better than an average runner, and though he’s mostly played CF, he was also relegated to left for a significant minority of games. There’s not much here to latch onto except a small amount of power projection. If he makes it stateside next year (which is not a lock) and starts popping HR at the Complex, it likely means he’s made the necessary changes to get to that projection. Watching him from afar is a fair move at this juncture. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Janero Miller, 18, OF
Miller, a 2023 J15, was in last year’s Bowman Chrome product as a two way player. He’s now switched to just OF. It’s a measure of clarity I was happy to see, but I’m not happy at all with what I’m seeing on the field. He still looks really, really raw. More raw than most of the 2024 J15’s. He still doesn’t have much strength, and though he can hit it hard, I saw him regularly get beat with pitches at the belt and higher. There’s a ton of swing-and-miss – and a K% near 40. He’s still an intriguing athlete, but not one bound to play stateside for another year. Without a Bowman 1st logo, he’s definitely not interesting until we see how he begins to develop. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3-5 Auto Only
Milwaukee Brewers
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Juan Baez, 19, 3B
A player who’s long been on my watchlist because he’s so great at making both quantity of and quality contact, don’t be fooled by the low power output – it’s coming to some extent. This isn’t a slapdash groundball specialist. Baez does his damage by stinging liners (27% of his BBEs) to his pull side with regularity. In fact he’s so pull heavy that it’s easy to say Baez, who just turned 19 in June – has quite a way to go in his maturity as a hitter. Saying that about a player who’s running a sub-10 K% is really something! He has a small frame and a flat swing plane - power isn’t his best tool by any means, but there could be double digit HR seasons if it all comes together. A potential plus hit tool will always play, and Baez has it. He is fairly thick already, so this former SS isn’t likely to return to the position and he’ll have to work to maintain versatility at 2B. Otherwise, if we’re treating him as ‘3B only’, it’d feel better if his power profile did make that jump. But we’re a few years away from knowing if it will or not. For now enjoy the hit tool and watch how it grows. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 7 Both
Josh Adamczewski, 19, 2B
Just as teams do in the draft, Topps threw a bunch of late round dart throws into this product. Most of them never amount to anything. But the Brewers appear to have hit on one here – Adamczewski was an Indiana prep who was drafted in the 15th Round last year, and signed for just $252k. So, expectations were modest. Looking at his footage from high school he looked like a player who’s body wouldn’t allow him to stick in the MI – but that doesn’t look to be the case now, in seeing him scorch baseballs and run around the bases in Carolina. He’s seemingly improved his conditioning enough to give the Brewers a lot to think about his future as a 2B. That’s the least of what we should be thinking about for the hobby though. Adamczewski torched the Complex with an all-fields approach that yielded a .950 OPS while managing a sub-20% K, and followed that up with a hot opening week at Single A. There’s a lot to not believe in still, but there’s no doubt he has tools that, with organic growth, project him to the majors now. His 60% ground ball rate in the Complex will not play at higher levels with his current below-average speed. But he also hit .336 with 60% ground ball rate and below-average speed. You see where this is going, right? If he’s able to lift the ball just a bit, there’d perhaps be a real power breakout of some sort. He’s also a very patient hitter, running a BB rate near 20% on the year. There’s still quite a bit of bust potential and his body isn’t very projectable – but I’d bank more strongly to the boom coming in the next year or two. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 7 Auto Only
Tier 3
None
Tier None
None
Minnesota Twins
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Eduardo Beltre, 17, OF
The Twins signed two players to seven figure bonuses in this year’s IFA class - Beltre was the more advanced of the two and thus far it’s playing as such. There’s still a lot of room for physical growth in his frame but he’s already really physically strong. He uses a small leg kick to set his rhythm and unleash a sweet compact stroke with a slight uphill plane and plenty of bat speed. He does sometimes overswing, going hand-in-hand with being fairly pull-heavy, but it’s hard to be too critical of his results. He’s one of only a handful of players in the DSL with double digit HR total, and he’s doing it with a .300/.400/.600 slash. In short, he was one of the most dominant players in the league. There are a fair amount of strikeouts and swing and miss, but that will cut down with maturity and it’s always OK when there’s as much impact as Beltre has. He’s a CF for now who runs well, but in looking at him he seems to be a guy who’s destined for a corner OF spot – like many who are so young I think he’ll lose a step as he adds mass. As one of the best statistical performers within the subset of players (IFA) who are under the biggest spotlight in the set, he won’t be cheap. But I’m here to say - go for it. The ceiling is there. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7-9 Both
Daiber De Los Santos, 17, SS
De Los Santos signed in January for $1.9 MM, tops in the Twins class. He’s really raw right now but his across-the-board ceiling is immense. He looks taller than his listed 6’1” – if not he at least looks the part of a long, lean modern SS already. He uses his plus speed to get to balls in the field with ease right now, but he has a ways to go to say he’ll definitely stick there. He hasn’t quite honed in on an approach at the plate yet – he swings a lot and gets fooled a lot. He also hasn’t quite learned how to operate his levers yet, so strikeouts are also an issue. But man, the bat speed is ever apparent and when he does make contact, it tends to be hard. That part of his game is easy – the baseball acumen is what needs to improve. That’s generally something that comes naturally with experience, so I’m not really more afraid of the scary things in De Los Santos profile than any other DSL player, especially with how tooled up he is as a whole. He and Beltre should be fun to watch as they progress through the system – they’ve both been as advertised. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7-9 Both
Tier 3
Dameury Pena, 18, 2B
Listed at 5’10”, Pena plays smaller than that. He doesn’t have big levers or projection, which is likely why, if he received a bonus at all when he signed with the Twins in the 2023 IFA period, it wasn’t reported. What he does have is elite bat-to-ball skills. Last year in the DSL, only 5 players had a better K% than him (min 80 PA). This year in the Complex, only 1 player had a better K% than him (min 100 PA). He’s only struck out 18 times in two years. He’s just a really disciplined hitter – he knows what he can hit, and he’s excellent at making the decision to swing. He takes big leg kick to set his rhythm in his well-built lower half, then locks in that zone of attack. He’s really quick to the ball and while he prefers to pull because that’s where he can do damage, his barrel control is good enough to flip liners to the opposite field. Maybe that becomes gap power in future years with more strength. To me it’s easily a plus hit tool projection. While it’ll never be an average tool, his power also has enough projection to make it to the majors. That’s a good thing, because he is locked into 2B and doesn’t have great speed on the base-paths. He has to keep adding enough strength to his upper half to handle the physicality of higher levels – that’s the biggest obstacle. But I mean, it’s not even a baseball obstacle. He looks like a really safe player, and if it all comes together, one with a medium-high hobby ceiling. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
None
New York Mets
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Jeremy Rodriguez, 18, SS
The top signing of the Diamondbacks in the 2023 International Free Agency period for $1.25M, Rodriguez was then traded at the 2023 deadline for Tommy Pham. Rodriguez has been as good or better than billed, and it’s quite possible that the Diamondbacks will regret that trade, even if it was part of the puzzle in their unexpected 2023 World Series appearance. The profile is a plus hit tool with up the middle defense and above average speed or better. The only question is the power. There is a case to be made for there being future power output, but I’m not sure I want to bet on that being home run power - it’s more like impactful gap to gap, line drive power given his swing path and ability to make contact. In other words, he’s not swinging for the fences. The floor is really high for an 18 year old at the Complex, even if the Ceiling is not. He doesn’t strike out much (never had higher than an 18% K rate), isn’t overly BABIP-dependent, and he just hits, especially when it comes to pitches in the zone. With him having been a top 40 International Prospect with a $1M+ signing bonus, being on a highly collectable team, and potentially being in consideration for Top 5-10 in the Mets system and possibly on Top 100 lists within the next year, there is enough here to push him into Tier 2 even without the power tool. If this was a potential .300 hitter with 20-ish steals on the Marlins or the A’s or some team like that, the scales would likely tip the other way into Tier 3. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 8 Auto Only
Brandon Sproat, 23, P
The Mets Pitching Factory started the season with the Christian Scott hype train with the Blade Tidwell locomotive not far behind. By mid-summer, Brandon Sproat had overtaken both of those hype trains (Scott was underwhelming in 9 major league appearances and now has a UCL sprain while Tidwell has gotten crushed once he was promoted to Triple-A). You’ll surely hear this quoted regularly with Sproat, so I’ll parrot the same bit of trivia that Sproat was drafted in round 3 by the Mets in 2022, turned down the Mets to head back to Florida, and the Mets went back to the well by taking him in round 2 in 2023. That means the Mets really liked him!
Sproat started the year with some relief concerns and in-progress tweaks to his delivery and arsenal. He then went on to dominate High-A and Double-A through the first four months of the season before an August promotion to Triple-A. The small sample in Triple-A has been a bit more bumpy, but I wouldn’t jump off that hype train because of it. One of the major keys to Sproat’s success is limiting the walks, and he really did that in Double-A (6.5%) and continues to do it in Triple-A (7.7%). The other key to his success has been the whiff generation and the related K rate. At High-A it was 32% and Double-A it was 33%, which is high-end SP numbers. The K rate has not followed him to Triple-A, but I’ve seen some questionable strike zone calls that have not helped Sproat at that level. The arsenal is plentiful featuring an upper-90’s four seamer that can get to triple digits as well as a cutter in a similar velocity range. The three secondaries are a change-up, slider, and curveball. The change-up is the most effective and the slider has the most potential, while the curveball is inconsistent and probably gets de-emphasized as he continues to refine his arsenal. The change-up and slider are both plus, while the four seamer can be as well even with some shape questions now that we have Triple-A statcast data. A whiff-generating, walk-suppressing SP2 Ceiling is suddenly in the cards for Sproat, and he’s now in the conversation as the top Mets prospect depending on how he finishes the year. Those ingredients plus the current hype train are enough for me to push him into Tier 2. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 7 Auto Only
Tier 3
Edward Lantigua, 17, OF
The second biggest signing of the Mets in the most recent International Free Agency class at just a touch under $1M, Lantigua was a consensus top 50 prospect heading into the signing period. It’s easy to say that he’s coming out of the DSL season in a similar range, as a top 50 prospect for players completing their first DSL season. While he struggled a bit to start the year, he came on strong in the second half of the season. In the final 29 games of the season, increased his walk rate to 14% and his batting average up to .290. He looked to be more aggressive, so his strikeout rate did jump up to 21%. The book on Lantigua is that there is future above average power, possibly some speed that he may or may not grow out of, and some hit tool questions. Like most DSL hitters, I saw some issues with any sort of spin and he was mostly looking to do damage to fastballs. When he was impacting the balls, it was of the line drive variety more than over the fence. He’s still a lanky 6’1” that will grow into his power. It’s tough to tell if he will be able to stick in center field, where he spent the majority of the DSL, as those DSL camera angles really don’t help much for defensive looks beyond the infield. Safe to say that it’s an open question, although scouts have said he has the opportunity to stay up the middle. With no power showing up yet in game (one HR in 45 DSL games), I don’t expect anyone to be too high on Lantigua. There is some prospect pedigree, and a collectable team, so I’m not ruling out above average interest. If you want in Lantigua’s cards, you will be looking to project that power and hope he doesn’t grow out of his above average speed, and I could see some of that power potential with his swing and frame. I just don’t see it now, and that keeps me a bit cautious here until I do see him take the next step. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6-8 Both
Yovanny Rodriguez, 17, C
Rodriguez signed for $2.85MM in January, the 5th highest bonus in the entire IFA class. A lot of that is tied to his arm and defense behind the plate, both of which were touted as potential plus assets. He still has a very bright defensive future, but let’s not anoint him just yet – he’s only thrown out 12% of baserunners. I also think he’ll be a pretty good hitter, which you wouldn’t know by the statline. He has a simple setup at the plate and looks really comfortable. He gets a good coil without extraordinary effort, though he can overexert on the back end, which has caused some weak contact. A lot of weak contact actually. Along with a swing that’s a hair long, staying balanced is really his main flaw right now on the offensive side. His approach is solid. He makes contact often enough, and walked almost as much as he struck out. The bones of a good hitter are there. Rodriguez already has a catcher’s body and speed is not and will not be a part of his game. His promotions will be driven by his defensive progression, which doesn’t seem as advanced as was touted. He still probably heads to the Complex to start next year though. It’s easy to say he’ll be a nice chase for Mets collectors, but I just caution it’ll be a slower burn than maybe we thought 8 months ago. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7 Both
Wilfredo Lara, 20, INF
I’ve had my eye on Lara since last year when he slashed 35 XBH as a 19 YO in Low-A with just a 22 K%. This year hasn’t been nearly as successful at the next level up, but the bones of a good ballplayer are still there. Lara was traded at the deadline this year to the Marlins, straight up for Huascar Brazoban. His new organization has quite a poor track record for developing hitters, but my hope is that it’ll all just come organically at this juncture. He’s got really quick hands and uses a toe tap to coil and get to his short, balanced swing. He doesn’t hunt for power, but he always wants to hit something hard to the pull side and he’s not afraid to wait for it. Therein lies his biggest flaw as well. If he learns how to use the whole field, watch out – I think we’re looking at not just a complete hitter, but a complete player. He has utility infield appeal. He’s a better 3B than SS, and since the trade he’s played mostly 2B. He also has enough speed to be a threat on the basepaths, but he’s not a burner. I am not at all afraid of his underwhelming performance this year. I’m more scared of the Marlins organization. To me, the triple point of not being pictured with the right team, mediocre performance, and poor card market really just creates a buying opportunity. I’m in. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 6 Auto Only
Cristopher Larez, 18, SS
Larez was handed a 56 game PED suspension toward the end of last year’s DSL season, so there was never going to be a follow up to his promising season this year. It’s always a bit murky on when these suspensions will end and if the team gives him a shot to work into games after, but as of this writing, he hasn’t played at all this year. A $1.4 MM signee in the 2023 period, he’s on the younger side for the class - still only 18 until January - so stomaching the lost year is somewhat easier. The scouting at the time of signing was across the board tools with a chance to stick at SS, which is mostly confirmed by video and performance. He didn’t use his lower half particularly well last year, but still managed a SLG over .400. He was not a mature hitter, as are many of his age, but with a K% near 30 and as much chase as he showed, he may have been headed back to the DSL this year regardless of the suspension. He does look to have matured physically a bit in his time off, especially in his upper body. We’ll just have to wait for a little longer to see how it starts to play out. This is not an exciting hobby profile right now – he deserves to be slept on. But there is pedigree here, so we can still hang our hat on that. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7 Auto Only
Jensy Rivas, 17, SS
Some IFA’s have a ton of amateur footage to comb through from which to draw some evaluations even when, like Rivas, they haven’t made their pro debut yet. Rivas isn’t one of them. All we have is scouting reports and a BP video that at the most basic level, backs up the reports. Rivas is a Dominican switch hitting SS with a hit-over-power profile. He has a legit shot to stick at SS long-term. But none of this has been flushed out in game action – there’s no injury report so we can’t assume that to be the case. The 500K signee will likely now make his debut as an older 18 YO (October birthday) next year. Where? I don’t know. There is some pedigree to his name though, and for now we can throw out a number that indicates he does have some ceiling. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7 Both
Vladi Guerrero, 17, 1B
Yep, another Guerrero in the pipeline. Vladi, or Vladimir Miguel as he’s previously been called signed for low six-figures in January. Like his half-brother has ended up, he’s a 1B. Unlike his half-brother, he didn’t look great in the DSL. It’s pretty much everything. He chases a ton, he misses often, he doesn’t drive with his back foot, he loses his balance often, and just in general is very inconsistent. He has a big body already so he’s been able to thump some XBH’s, but there’s nothing here that definitely projects at a higher level. There’s also all that pressure on the bat because of his positional limitation. The hobby loves to chase bloodlines, and Vladi has them. Just temper expectations, then temper them again. He’s not a strong prospect name to consider, but he will surely be chased in this product! Risk: 10 Ceiling: 3-5 Both
Tier None
Julio Zayas, 18, C
He was never going to be in last year’s BC because he was a minor signing, but I’ve had my eye on Zayas after his loud DSL season and I’ve been waiting a year to write about him. Not because of skills on the field, but because I can do a callback to The Planet of the Apes, The Musical episode of The Simpsons. If Troy McClure were singing a line about this Zayas, it’d go something like “If you hit / and throw / this ball real hard / you can play with St. Lucie / just across the yard!”. He did not get to St. Lucie this year, but based on how the Mets deployed him that was never in the plans. He mixed time at catcher with 1B and DH, treated as a developmental piece who’s a ways away defensively. On the offensive side, after slugging .517 with a 13 K% in the DSL last year, this year was a downturn. I’m not going to downgrade him too much for it, but he had far less batted ball success. After being really aggressive last year though there were signs of an actual approach at the plate this year – his OBP was actually very similar at the Complex. His swing is really simple. He loads with a toe tap and unfurls a safe, uppercut stroke. It’s easy to see why his K% remains low. What I’m more concerned about is his conditioning. It’s a traditional catcher’s body, but at 18 it already looks like it may be heading the way of Moises Ballesteros. That doesn’t work for most players. Zayas is going to be a slower burn and very likely needs to stay at catcher to make it up the ladder, as his tools teeter on the edge of not being loud enough otherwise. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5 Both
Rhylan Thomas, 24, OF
A steady riser in the Mets system after being taken in the 11th Round in 2022, Thomas was flipped to Mariners for Ryan Stanek at the trade deadline this year. The USC product is a contact specialist, running a sub 10 K% since turning pro. He’s pretty good at finding the barrel too, spraying liners to all fields with good results. So what’s the deal? Why isn’t he a significant prospect? Two reasons – he doesn’t have good speed (LF-only profile) and he doesn’t have any power. He has just 49 XBH in 194 pro games, which equates to an ISO around .100 – that’s quite poor for a 24 YO. All of these things combined makes both his floor and ceiling very apparent – he’s a 4th/5th OF. He is, simply put, boring for the hobby. Sure to reach the majors, but also sure to never have impact. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 3 Both
Yohairo Cuevas, 20, 1B/OF
Cuevas turns 21 a few days after release, and the fact that he’s that age and struggling at Low-A should be the overriding fact. It was smart of Cuevas to sign as an IFA in 2021 (he’s from the Bronx) and play in the DSL for a few years – he knew he was raw – that gave him a chance to mature at his pace. But after a largely successful year at the Complex last year, the learning curve of Low-A has proved too steep. He has inconsistent swing mechanics, but it’s more than that. At 6’3” he has long levers but he sacrifices a lot of that leverage by employing a compact stroke in an attempt to eliminate holes in his swing. That hasn’t really worked, as he still runs moderately high K numbers and his quality of contact isn’t generally great. It also hasn’t helped that not a lot of physical maturation has happened in his three years as a pro – he’s still easily under 200 lbs. What would added strength bring? That’s the most intriguing question with Cuevas. Even if he loses some athleticism with that and becomes a full-time 1B, I think that’ll be his best chance for advancement. At best he’ll be a late bloomer, but it’s hard to clarify what a picture of his success would look like exactly. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Heriberto Rincon, 18, OF
Repeating the DSL this year after signing for 150k in January 2023, Rincon is still rail thin. He looks smaller than his 6’1” height, and certainly has no thought of using any levers for power. He has a big leg kick but doesn’t really coil much at all. He more does it just as a mechanism to engage his lower half at all – even so, he doesn’t do it well. This is a two-year trend now, and his hitting ability seems to have stepped back this year. He’s never had strikeout issues but his batted balls are markedly worse this year. He’s hitting way more fly balls and as you can guess, they’re not deep ones – his BABIP is currently under .250, and to me, it’s not bad luck. If he’s trying to get to some power, it’s not working. If he adds some strength, sure, maybe something he’s doing at the plate can work. But his current development track is a bit off the rails. I’d rather see him have some success before I had the first thought of buying into him, and may just never happen. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 1-3 Both
New York Yankees
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Francisco Vilorio, 17, OF
Signed this January as the Yankees top J15 for $1.7 MM, Vilorio certainly looks the part of a future slugger. At 6’4” he has projectability to dream on, and though his body has already matured some, there’s plenty of room for more strength. There’s absolutely no problem with his swing mechanics. He looks as smooth as can be up there. It’s a rhythmic swing with plenty of bat speed without extraordinary effort. The power projection is easily above average. His swing decisions leave a lot – and I mean a lot – to be desired. He’s really poor at identifying pitches, missing by a wide margin far too often, and he’s too aggressive. The rest of his game is really in line with his pedigree – he’s a good defender in CF, with enough speed to perhaps stick there, but if not his arm is more than enough to move to RF. Pitch recognition is the undoing of many prospects – it’s a red flag in Vilorio’s case, but the only one. If he’s able to overcome it to the extent of showing his hit tool to be just a 45-ish, his hobby ceiling is high. I’m sure all the very reasonable Yankees collectors will very much take this risk into consideration when chasing him (or not at all). Risk: 10 Ceiling: 7-9 Both
Tier 3
Ben Rice, 25, 1B
Beginning in 2022, Rice cruised through every level from Single-A through Triple-A, never hitting below .260, never striking out more than 24% of the time, and walking 10% or better at every stop. Fast forward to mid-June and Anthony Rizzo broke his arm on a bang bang play at first base where he tumbled over the player covering the bag. Rice, who had been splitting time between catcher, first base, and designated hitter, was called up to replace Rizzo. The first two weeks weren’t anything special, but then starting on Independence Day, he hit 7 home runs over a span of 10 days, including a 3 home run game in the middle of that run. He was the toast of the Big Apple as well as the fantasy world. If Rice had 1st Bowman cards at that time, they would have gone through the roof. Since then, Rice’s results continued to drift back to earth, and once Rizzo was activated on September 1st, Rice was sent back down to Triple-A. Rice is a patient, almost passive hitter who looks to do damage in the zone. I like to throw on Baseball Savant random videos for any player who’s had MLB reps, and through the first 20 or so random video clips, Rice did not take the bat off of his shoulder. He doesn’t chase, and his short swing generates plenty of barrels and fly ball impact. He’ll chip in some stolen bases, but I don’t anticipate it will be a part of his game once he’s playing full time at the big league level. On the defensive side, he’s much better suited to a first base/DH role. He’s struggled with the catcher role, especially with throwing out base stealers. At this point, with Austin Wells looking like the Yankees catcher of today and the future, I doubt we see Rice behind the dish outside of in an emergency role. We’ve got an above average, offense-first lefty hitting first baseman playing in a hugely favorable home park on the MOST collectable team in baseball. In the short term, with Rice’s big run early in his call-up and the Yankees pinstripes on the cards, he’ll likely be treated like a Tier 2 player. Given his power and home ballpark, there likely are going to be various times in his career where he will justify Tier 2 price points. However, the profile long term is just a tick below Tier 2 for me, where the power is a stand out tool but little else is. Because there is 25 home run seasons in New York at his peak, the Ceiling gets bumped up higher than normal for a Tier 3 player, but I’m selling into that hype (assuming prices are high). Risk: 1 Ceiling: 7 Base Only
Caleb Durbin, 24, UTIL
Hey Durbin has played more than five games at four different positions this year – that qualifies him as a utility player, right? Mostly an infielder, Durbin has been deployed as an OF at AAA some this year to see if he can fill a role with the big club someday soon. A former 14th Round pick by the Braves back in 2021, he was flipped to the Yankees in a minor trade before the 2023 season when he really took off. Durbin is a little guy (5’6”) who’s a contact specialist. His K% has never been over 13%, and SwStr% hasn’t been over 7% – at any stop. He’s showing more pop these days too, the final step of a maturing hitter. It is a very pull heavy approach but it clearly just works for him. He has some speed too – not a burner, but a significant threat on the bases. It’s not a matter of if, but when he gets called up to the majors. He’s very much earned his chance and fits really well as a bench piece to start his career and with time could be 400 PA utility-type. There’s not much in the way of ceiling, but Yankees collectors are many and he’s a guaranteed big-leaguer meaning interest should be robust. Risk: 2 Ceiling: 5 Both
Tier None
Jose Castro, 18, OF
To make things confusing, the Marlins also have an OF Jose Castro, who also only has DSL experience (who is NOT in this product). This Castro’s development has been arrested this year by an injury – he was placed on the 60-Day IL at the start of the DSL season and I would not expect to see him at all. Last year he had a thin, wiry frame and an aggressive high-effort swing. That led to a ton of swing and miss and was destined for a DSL repeat. That repeat is now poised to be in 2025 as a 19 YO, though the Yankees will have a better gauge on his progress – we’ll see if he gets pushed to the Complex instead. Before I make any move toward or away from him, I want to see what he looks like – if his body has matured and he’s making some better swing decisions, and maybe let that maturity take some effort out of his swing – he could be interesting. He did show some acumen for base-stealing last year as well, and he does have that nice frame. But there’s just so much risk. If he indeed repeats the DSL next year it’s an age to level issue. If he gets moved to the Complex and looks like the same player it’s also an issue. Being a Yankee and the natural price inflation therein, there are sure to be better dart throws than Castro in this product. He’s certainly nothing stronger than that at this juncture, and as such slides into the top of Tier None for now. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 4-6 Both
Christopher Familia, 24, OF
I’m going to catch some heat for this one from Yankees fans because his bat speed is fantastic and there’s a lot of highlights of him rocketing 107 MPH liners to right. Familia has quite a small path to the majors. There’s been a lot of bad luck with injury – he’s never played more than 68 games in any year despite having been stateside for three seasons now. We can treat him as a 23 YO because he was slower to begin his career, but he’s still only played at High-A, and this year he has not had much success. He’s likely done now too after suffering his second injury of the season. Hey hobby, do you like age-25 season players starting their season in High-A? Familia doesn’t have much in the way of levers in his stocky frame, but he makes up for it with raw strength. He’s so strong that the “pull everything” approach has worked…until this year. He was completely fine in his rehab – I don’t think this is injury related. Rather, I think it’s that pitchers have finally figured out that this is an approach that’s very easy to pitch to – his K% and quality of contact suffered massively this year before he went down again. I don’t think this is a coachable issue – he has to change his mentality while maintaining aggression. Not so easy. Furthermore, he also lacks speed of any kind – he’s better suited to DH than LF. For all these reasons I’m telling you to avoid Familia in this product if you expect him to be a big-league contributor. That said, go right ahead Yankee fans – do your thing. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 3 Both
Gabriel Lara, 18, OF
Sometimes being a minor IFA signing is the biggest burden to going stateside. Such was the case with Lara after a very nice debt season in 2023 – SLG & OBP over .400, K% under 20%. This year has been much less successful. Lara is only 5’9”and is fairly physically mature – he’s not very projectable. He has an easy, smooth contact oriented swing but there’s not a lot of bat speed. He makes a lot of contact, but the quality has fallen off a cliff this year and his GB% has risen. That high GB rate can work for him - he has decent enough speed – but it’s not. He needs to change his swing so he lofts a bit more, or sacrifice some contact for more bat speed. I think this is all a moot point at this point based on what he’s done. He’d headed for a third year of DSL ball next year, and that being a path to even a lengthy MiLB career isn’t really a thing. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 1-3 Auto Only
Oakland Athletics
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Luis Morales, 21, P
Morales defected from Cuba in 2021 and was declared an International Free Agent in time to sign for the 2023 J15 class, where he was one of the top players available and signed for a whopping $3 MM, a record for a pitcher in the bonus pool era. Last year he saw four levels from the DSL all the way up to High-A, where he pitched exclusively this year. It’s fair to think of him as younger than his age – he has experience at high levels but essentially nothing for two years from 2021-22. The slow development of his command demands that we think of him at least. Even before he ran out of steam in August , he was running a 10 BB% – that’s fine for a raw pitcher, but to say he’s definitely maximizing his stuff and being efficient and effective, it needs to tick down. And oh man does he have good stuff. The lean, athletic 6`3” righty’s fastball is regularly in the high 90’s. When he’s locating his curve and slider (they blend into each other) properly they’re also potential plus pitches, and his change is very well developed for his experience as well. Even though he’s not quite showing it this year, there is definitely high K upside - I don’t know how he gets to the majors without it, in fact. He’s a power pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff that’s a few years of development away, but it’s easy to see a nice ceiling. We saw it on full display in the Futures Game this year where he struck out 2 of his 3 batters faced. It is a pretty awful team context, but he’s a pretty great pitching prospect for the hobby. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 6 Both
Myles Naylor, 19, SS
This is the second appearance for base Naylor cards in a Bowman Flagship product in 2024 and not much has changed from the original assessment back in May. There are still serious hit tool issues that are slightly offset by above average power. He’s striking out at a 33% rate with a significant whiff rate (5th percentile) and an overall lack of contact (3rd percentile in zone and 4th percentile outside the zone). And it’s not as if he’s overly passive - he’s frequently swinging with a zone swing rate in the 65th percentile and an outside the zone swing rate in the 85th percentile. Beyond the name recognition and a top 40 overall draft pick pedigree, this is a profile to sell, sell, and sell some more. As the arrow continues to point downwards, I’m adjusting the Ceiling down from where I had him in 2024 Bowman, and he’s dangerously approaching Tier None territory. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5 Auto Only
Darling Fernandez, 18, OF
Fernandez was a 750k IFA signer in 2023 whose pro debut was delayed until late July – he only played 10 games, so it was an easy choice for him to repeat the league. When he signed, the profile was that of hit-over-power, and a year later he’s showing that to be true. He’s not truly a polished hitter, and there are some quality-of-contact issues, but he does a really good job of putting the ball in play with his flat swing plane and getting on base. He’s walked more than he’s struck out this year, and his K% is hovering around a tidy 11%. His defense is lower on the spectrum already for an 18 YO – he’s thick in the middle and has only played LF this year. It’s likely he slows down a touch more and ends up a non-factor on the bases. For the hobby I’m not at all worried about the lost year this early. I am worried about his limited ceiling. We can’t call him a floor play just yet either, being so far from the majors, so I’m completely out on him until he establishes he can do these same things in full season ball. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 3-5 Both
Tier None
Ramon Landaeta. 18, C
Another 750k signer in the A’s 2023 J15 class, Landaeta also repeated the DSL this year. He had base cards in the Bowman release earlier this year where we wrote him up as a guy who didn’t play well last year and due to organization and position, was an easy name to avoid for the hobby. Well, if repeating the DSL isn’t enough to turn you off, the fact that there was almost no improvement should. His wRC+ went from 95 last year to 101 (as of 8/21) this year. His K% is still in the 30% range, and he’s still not hitting for much power. He’ll still be an organizational project for at least another year but there’s no sign he’ll ever be more than that. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 2-4 Auto Only
Philadelphia Phillies
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Eduardo Tait, 18, C
Tait (ta-EET) is a fantastic real-life prospect, and most of it crosses into the hobby as well. The Panamanian signed in January 2023 for just 90k but immediately outperformed that modest bonus in the DSL. This year it just continued. He mashed 20 XBH in 51 games in the Complex, then after that season ended went to Low-A as a 17 YO and hit 3 HR in his first 8 games there. He’s not exactly a one-dimensional masher but he’s up there looking to do damage to the pull side with every swing. He’s very aggressive (nothing close to a 10 BB%), but his hands are so strong and he’s so coordinated that he gets around most everything – he will eventually have to learn to go the other way more properly or he’ll start missing more often. Oh, and the defense that was supposed to be a below average projection? No more. He threw out 30% of runners at the Complex, then quickly dissuaded the “let’s run on the kid” mentality by throwing out 8 of his first 20 at Low-A. The rest of his defense is a hair behind, but it’s impressive stuff – remember he JUST turned 18 a few weeks before release. With the way Phillies fans have gobbled up non-traditional hobby name Starlyn Caba (they know he has no power, right?), there will be no missing on Tait, who’s much easier to see as an offensive machine. Ta-YEET, amiright?! Risk: 7 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier 3
Jalvin Arias, 17, OF
The Phillies top J15 in January, Arias signed for $1.4 MM. He’s a massive hulk of a RF prototype – he’s every bit of the 6’2”, 230 lbs he’s listed at (and he’s probably taller). He’s the type of player that makes it look like he’s swinging a toothpick up there. It’s a weird body with long legs and a short torso, but still, right now he’s just a big strong kid with levers and some feel for the barrel. There’s nothing resembling refinement in his plate approach. Though he isn't overly aggressive, he chose poor pitches to swing at. It was a limited sample because he went down to an injury in June, but he swung and missed, and chased, a ton. His hands are in a starting position to trigger quickly with a shorter stroke, but nothing about Arais is quick – all his successes are thanks to his feel for the barrel. He has a lot of room to put more effort in his swing and engage his lower half more, but we don’t want to see that at all until he figures out pitch recognition. Anyone can see the raw power Arias possesses. It’s just a matter of developing some kind of hit tool, and with men of his size that sometimes never comes. He’s definitely a better hobby name than a real life one, because his ceiling is something close to a one-dimensional masher. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 5-7 Both
Tier None
Jaeden Calderon, 18, OF
In January of 2023 Calderon signed for $150k, and has been a solid DSL performer ever since. He’s repeating the league but it’s not because of his offensive numbers – it’s been a wRC+ over 130 both years. Rather it’s because he doesn’t bring much speed or defensive value to the table, and there’s no need to rush a player like that to the Complex to develop under the eyes of stateside coaches – they know who he is. All his not coming stateside this year cost him was a few AB’s at Low-A (perhaps) if he had performed well. He definitely doesn’t have any loud tools, but he’s a patient hitter who knows how to get on base and use all fields. He still makes some poor swing decisions up there, but to me it also looked like he was bored and tired of so many pitchers who had no idea where the ball was going. I’m definitely fine with what he’s done in the DSL this year, and I would anticipate his getting the opportunity to come stateside and earn a quick promotion to full season after a few games at Complex next year. His defense is the real sticking point to all of this. If he can prove himself to be average or better at LF or 1B, it won’t hinder his development too much further. But it’s still not a great hobby ceiling, and this is more likely a career minor leaguer. Since I’m fairly confident this ceiling range is accurate (not common for a DSL player), I’ll go ahead and make the call to slide him to Tier None. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 4-6 Auto Only
Pittsburgh Pirates
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Bralyn Brazoban, 18, OF
Don’t look too hard at the stats. Trust the process.There was a reason Brazoban received $2MM this January. He’s a long levered 6`1” OF who certainly looks the part of an elite athlete. He even has good bat speed. But man is there a lot of rawness. He gets a good coil, but his hands start so low that when he starts his swing, the plane of attack is all wrong. It seems like a slow windup to a long swing – he looks like a softball player up there. His swing and miss issues are massive – it’s both due to that swing and chasing too much. Some of this will improve naturally with experience, some will improve with added strength. But it’s how he adapts the swing that’s the most interesting. He has to know changes are needed, right? To have success it’ll have to look nothing like it does now, so I won’t comment on his high ground ball rate or low quality of contact, other than just mentioning it. Buy the athleticism, buy the pedigree. But also mind that he’s even riskier than most high-ceiling DSL names. He’s right at the top of Tier 3 for me. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8 Both
Iverson Allen, 17, OF
Cute name. I honestly think that’s why he’s in this product. The Panamanian signed for 300k in January this year – hardly a number that says to Topps “he’s gonna be a stud, we need him in Bowman the first chance we get!” Allen is now on the IL for the second time this year, and has only logged 50 AB’s to date. He seems destined to repeat the DSL, which is OK because he JUST turned 17. There’s not enough data to draw any conclusions in regard to how his swing relates to results, but he’s aggressive up there and chases a lot. He uses a big leg kick to wind up then unfurls a flat swing with plenty of bat speed. He’s every bit as raw as you’d expect. Listed as 6’0”, he doesn’t have the most projectable body but there’s a lot of room to develop. He’s really annoying to google information on. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6 Auto Only
Tier None
Khristian Curtis, 22, P
Curtis has always had the size and stuff to eventually be successful, but never really had much buildup as an amateur due to injury until his Junior year at Arizona State, where he was squarely mediocre and inconsistent. So the 6`5” righty wasn’t taken in the 2023 Draft until the 12th Round, where he signed an overslot deal for 600k, which is fitting for both his risk profile and ceiling. We should all be treating Curtis like a 20 YO – that’s where the mileage and experience on his arm currently lies. As such, being at Low-A all year this year and logging a fully healthy season was the only benchmark to clear. Mission…not accomplished. Curtis missed 6 weeks this summer with a lower body injury. But while his command has lagged because of that inconsistency, his pitch mix has looked solid. It’s a mid-90’s fastball that maintains velocity deep into outings - up to 97. He has a sharp biting down-plane slider as his best breaker and a softer curve that keeps hitters off balance. Sounds nice, right? Yeah, I think so too. All he needs is health, a build into a starter’s workload, and hopefully the command advancements that come with it.. That will take several years, but I think there’s high-K mid-rotation appeal here. The likely age-25 debut potential just knocks him down in hobby terms. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 5 Auto Only
Kalae Harrison, 22, 3B
Harrison rode a single year of moderate NCAA success at NC State to an 18th Round selection in last year’s draft. Even in college it was only a .115 ISO though, and Harrison doesn’t have great mobility. He’s a quintessential college 18th Round pick. He’ll put the ball into play and field a defensive position well enough to fill an organizational roster spot, but it’s a very small chance of reaching the majors. The hope was that his contact skills would play as well as they did at NC State and develop further, but it’s already pretty clear that won’t be the case. It’s not worth dissecting his stats, and don’t be fooled by the fact that he’s spent time at AA. This was quite a poor selection for Topps to put into this product. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 1 Auto Only
San Diego Padres
Tier 1
Leodalis De Vries, 17, SS
The top International Free Agent in the 2024 class, at least by talent if not by signing bonus. Six months later and he’s the top shortstop prospect in baseball. The top Padres prospect, easily a top 25 overall prospect with the bolder (or reckless as some might say) potentially ranking him in the top 10 overall. It’s absolutely wild for a 17 year old, but it’s absolutely justified. Unlike the headliner for last year’s edition of Bowman Chrome and someone almost everything above could similarly be said at this time last year, LDV as the headliner for this year’s edition of Bowman Chrome ticks all three boxes - real baseball, fantasy baseball, AND the hobby. Salas was more of a real life baseball prospect that had the short term Hobby hype. That has faded as Salas has unsurprisingly struggled offensively in year 2. But back to LDV - while he may experience some bumps along the way as the Padres have no qualms about pushing their best prospects, I expect LDV to have continued staying power in the Hobby as he works his way through the levels. I watched some of LDV’s first games as they were happening back in late April and I came away thinking he looked over-matched, questioning the decision to have him skip not only the DSL but also the Complex level. Well, that’s why I’m not a GM. By July, LDV was absolutely on fire. He hit safely in 17 out of 20 games earning California League player of the month for July with a .318 batting average, 8 home runs, 5 stolen bases, and a 190 wRC+. Unfortunately he went down with a shoulder strain in mid-August, but the good news is that we will be seeing him in the Arizona Fall League. That should give us the confidence to not have any worries about the injury. This is a five tool prospect that has the ability to stick at short, hit for average, hit for power, steal bases, and has the prospect hype to keep the rocket ship fueled for the foreseeable future. I could write another thousand or more words on LDV after diving deep on the video and stats, but ultimately it’s safe to say I’m all in. If at any point he hits some struggles, as is likely to happen with prospects who are consistently the youngest players at their level of pro baseball as LDV is and surely will be moving forward, I’m buying the dips (if they are any). I suggest you do the same. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 10 Both
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Romeo Sanabria, 22, 1B
Drafted in the 18th Round of the 2022 Draft from a JuCo in Florida, Sanabria has done really well to improve his station in relation to that late-round status. Sure, he’s a 6’3” 1B-only guy who’s a plodder on the basepaths. And sure, he’s been a little old for these levels he’s having success at. His K% suffers a hair because he’s not a fully developed hitter and takes a lot of pitches, but is disciplined and bereft of much swing-and-miss. Surprisingly for a man of his size, his swing is short, quick, and is geared for line drive contact, not power. Still, as a benefit of being his size, he has no issue elevating to make some of those go for extra bases. None of this adds up to being a great hobby name. Could he grow into a good hitter – a James Loney-type perhaps? Sure. But that’s a ceiling. It’s a great outcome for an 18th Round pick, but not someone we’re necessarily hoping to see as the autograph hit in a box of baseball cards. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Kannon Kemp, 20, P
Kannon is a really nice name for a pitcher. Kemp has the projection in his 6’6” frame to eventually get to the mid 90’s with regularity, so it’s fitting. Around the time of the 2023 Draft he was already sitting around 92 and topped out at 94. Taken in the 8th Round, the Texas prep righty was signed away from an Oklahoma commitment for 625k. But that tidbit is really all we have so far as a pro. He hasn’t pitched at all in games due to a shoulder impingement, and with the Complex League over, he won’t this year. The scouting was fairly consistent in saying that there will be heavy reliance on that highly projectable fastball early in his pro career as he builds the rest of his repertoire. There were questions on how good the potential of his slider was, and like many preps, his change was not at all developed. His body still has quite a bit of filling out to do. In short, there’s a lot of projection but no polish – he’s surely headed to the Complex to start next year assuming his health cooperates. I’ll give him a generous ceiling here because the Padres are quite good at amateur scouting. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 4-6 Auto Only
Adler Cecil, 19, P
C’mon Topps. Really? A 19th Round prep pitcher who wasn’t a big bonus guy? I’d love to know what goes on in the checklist selection process that makes them pick names like this that are 100% guaranteed to be non-interesting at release, and have a high probability of being nothing. This isn’t a knock on Cecil. He has a nice 6`4” lefty frame to build from. He’s not strong at present, and in very limited video there appears to be quite a bit of effort in his low arm-slot delivery. His fastball gets up to 92 right now, with a three pitch mix that also included a curve and change. He only threw 22 innings in the Complex League this year because he started the year hurt and definitely had kid gloves on, never going more than 2 innings. His command was terrible in those innings – a 27 BB%. That plays into his lack of physicality. It’s not surprising that a late round pick like this is definitely headed for a second year of Complex league development – this pick was just a projectability dart throw. I shouldn’t have to be writing negative things like this about players like this, but here we are. Thanks Topps. My ceiling assessment here is merely based on what’s expected of a 19th Round pick, because that’s the strongest thing I have to go on. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 2 Auto Only
Yoiber Ocopio, 20, C
Man, there’s not much out there on Ocopio. He has a stout frame with short levers – he looks like a catcher. He doesn’t get to any power at this juncture, but he does hit the ball hard. He rode that meaningful contact to a DSL All-Star appearance last year, but in his 2024 DSL repeat he’s taken a step back from a results standpoint. Also, check out that age. The dude just turned 20 and hasn’t been stateside. He’s also seen increased time off the catcher position this year. Is this a prelude of what the organization thinks of him – just an organizational filler? There’s no reported bonus information from when he signed in January 2023, so that may very well be the case considering he has not improved his performance. The best case scenario is that he comes to the Complex next year and makes it to Low-A by age 21, but to do so he really needs an uptick in game power. With his frame, it’s just not a projection that I can say is coming. There’s a ton of risk here and a low ceiling. Not much reason for him to be in this product. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 1-3 Auto Only
San Francisco Giants
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
Lisbel Diaz, 19, OF
After small sample crushing of the DSL in 2023 and the Complex in 2024, Diaz was promoted to Single-A towards the end of June. The results at Single-A have been more mixed as he’s seeing a better level of pitching. His walk rate has ticked down below 7% while his strikeout rate has ticked up into the 22% range. He’s swinging too much out of the zone (10th percentile) while not enough in the zone (23rd percentile). To be fair, those numbers have been bouncing all over the place as he’s adjusting to the level, but they are definite notes of caution. One stat that remains strong is that he’s making a lot of in zone contact when he does swing at those pitches - he’s in the 84th percentile, so he certainly shows some potential for hit tool growth. At the moment, it’s fair to question if the hit tool will get to a better than average level. Part of that is his swing path, which is geared for launching the ball over the fence rather than putting the ball in play. It’s a swing path you like to see in the hobby - he’s got potential for plus power as he grows into his frame and has hit 10 so far in 62 games in 2024. I really like the swing path from a Hobby perspective, even if it looks awkward from the starting point, and it doesn’t hurt that Diaz is on my favorite team. So the question becomes do you view the glass as half full or half empty. Personally I am viewing it as half full and am hoping to get plenty of Diaz’s cards in this product. However, the hit tool concerns does bring that previously mentioned note of caution to the equation, and with no real speed in the profile to help balance that out, it is harder to push Diaz over the line into Tier 2 and out of Tier 3. As I said above, I’m viewing it as a glass half-full situation, so I’ll slip him into Tier 2 with some cautionary flags to be cognizant of. Risk: 6 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Javier Francisco, 21, 1B/2B
At one point in the International Free Agency signing period interrupted by the Pandemic, Francisco was compared to Fernando Tatis Jr. This was mostly a result of Francisco, a shortstop at the time just like Tatis Jr. was as he came up, working with Tatis Sr. leading up to the signing period, but in general this is why comps are bad. Fast forward a few years and Francisco’s shortstop days are over and he’s been pushed over to the right side of the infield for the most part, putting a lot more pressure on his bat. And the bat has not shown enough to give us much hope as he hit .186 with no home runs and two stolen bases in Single-A in 2024 (ignoring a strange 6 game stint in Triple-A in the beginning of June). Part of that is small sample sizes as he’s yet to play more than 52 games in a season. I was unable to find a reason why, but he’s now on the minor league 60 day injured list, so I doubt he eclipses the 50 game mark in 2024 (currently at 42 games). Francisco has more of a flat swing, and in the 2024 games I watched, he was putting the ball on the ground a lot while looking to pull everything. The stats don’t necessarily tell the same story, but in the clips of him putting the ball in the air, it was a lot of middle of the zone meatballs that he was doing damage on. He’s listed at 6’2” and 162 pounds - he’s still lanky even if there is some more weight on the frame, and he may even be a bit taller than listed as well. That frame leads me to believe there is some potential power in there if he has a swing change but it’s hard to buy into as he had zero leading in the 42 games leading up to his injury. At this point it seems like Francisco has fallen into the org depth territory and significant changes would be needed to consider him in anything but Tier None. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Guillermo Williamson, 20, 1B/OF
Williamson has mostly been playing first base this year at Single-A, which makes the offensive bar the highest possible if that truly is where Williamson ends up. It gets even worse as he’s spent almost as much time as a designated hitter. The Giants have basically given up on him playing in left field where they were trying to see if he could cut there last year at the Complex. The main attraction for Williamson is the power potential, especially as a thicker frame type of guy. There’s no speed to speak of, and the hit tool is trending towards fringey at this point. He’s sporting a K rate north of 32% in 2024 with a zone contact rate in the 6th percentile. YIKES. Maybe he doesn’t whiff a lot, right? RIGHT? Unfortunately his whiff rate is almost 40%, good for 8th percentile in Single-A. It is going to take quite a bit for Williamson to turn the power-only profile into a major league viable one. Even though we love power in the Hobby, this is an easy one to avoid. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 2 Auto Only
Seattle Mariners
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Dawel Joseph, 17, SS
Even though Joseph was a consensus top 5 name in the 2024 IFA class and signed for a massive $3MM bonus, he’s not showing any of that promise yet. Being raw was always an expectation for the 6’2” SS – he doesn’t have much present strength – but nobody had his having the lowest qualified batting average in the DSL on their bingo card. His setup looks good enough from the start, but then it all goes downhill. When he starts his swing he fires his hands almost simultaneously with his hip, and he also doesn’t use his lower half as a power supply to that hip. It’s really poor bat speed. As you can imagine, that leads to a very low quality of contact – any successes are a result of perfect timing. Also running a K% near 30, quantity of contact also isn’t acceptable. He does get on base via the walk at a good clip, but his supposed double-plus speed isn’t playing on the basepaths yet either. We definitely should take DSL stats with a grain of salt, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be considered at all. At this point, based on what he’s done, I would downgrade his potential hit tool – but everything can stay where it is. He still has the ceiling of an MLB SS, but I don’t know what kind or how long he’ll take to get anywhere near it. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8 Both
Jeter Martinez, P, 18
There’s a long way to go yet for the Mexican 600k-signer from the 2023 J15 period. But boy does he have the physical projection and high end K potential we love to see in the hobby. His fastball (or fastballs? It’s too early to tell if he’ll keep all three in his arsenal) is already into the mid-90’s. He has a slider with excellent break and velocity too – it’s definitely more of a true slider than a slurvy or cutterish offering. He also has a change that he throws less often, but it’s more developed than most players of his age. His command is, essentially, nowhere right now – but that’s mostly OK. To those of you who were hoping to buy into what he did in the DSL last year and hoping his decent-for-his-age BB rate would tick down and make him a quick riser – that didn’t happen and it’s quite clear that’s not who he is (*looks in the mirror*). He’s definitely a development project, but he’s in a good system for it. Also keep in mind that he's only as old as a 2024 prep Draftee, and he’s already thrown 84 pretty good innings as a pro. He might start next year in the Complex, but there’s a decent chance he starts to work into an actual workload of 80 or so innings. He’s very risky, but if you stack him up against the 2024 prep pitching draftees, where do you put him? 5? 6? That’s still a pretty good prospect to speculate on. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 6 Both
Tier None
Luis Suisbel, 21, 3B
Suisbel put up some really good power last year as an older Complex player, then was promoted and continued it in Modesto. It’s a lesser version of that same thing we’re seeing this year with that same Nuts team. Suisbel looks very comfortable from both sides of the plate, but his swing is long – that’s one of a few factors that limit him overall as a prospect. Other than that, the highlights show a strong and well-levered 6`1” masher with a smooth rhythmic swing from both sides. Another factor in the negative is that he chases quite a bit, and frequently doesn’t connect well. That leads to a higher K% than you’d like. But man when he gets ahold of one does it look good. Suisbel hasn’t quite slid down the defensive spectrum enough to say he’ll end up at 1B-only, but he’s not a great defender at the hot corner. He’s a bit old for Low-A and while it hasn’t been a wholly negative season, he’s not dominant by any means either. That leads me to question how well his game will translate at higher levels – especially his defensive fit. If he does come around it’ll be a late bloomer. For that reason his hobby potential is squarely middling. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 5 Auto Only
St. Louis Cardinals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
None
Tier None
Felix Taveras, 21, OF
Taveras is not a strong representative as the Cardinals lone 1st Bowman player in this set. A low six-figure signee way back in 2019, he hasn’t left the Cards’ Complex in Jupiter and may never. He had a good year last year, but there were cracks – he swung and missed a lot – maybe more than any other prospect in this set who’s made it stateside. This year it all came crashing down as he began his third year at the Complex. But wait…why was he repeating the level again when he had success? Likely because he has well below-average athleticism and can only play LF. Taveras’ on-field response this year has been the worst quality of contact of his career and the highest K% of his career. As he’ll be 22 before next season starts and has no versatility and no performance I’d be surprised if he makes it past this offseason’s cuts. ****Update - Taveras was released on September 5th Risk: 9 Ceiling: 1 Auto Only
Tampa Bay Rays
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Yoneil Curet, 21, P
High risk, high reward flamethrower that is already on the Rays 40-man roster despite not making it beyond High-A when that move was made. As the saying goes, you should believe what teams are telling you with their moves, and the Rays are showing belief in Curet’s value. That value is either as a high strikeout starting pitcher with some potential for walks or a high leverage relief pitcher. The strikeouts come from a mid to upper 90’s fastball that gets whiffs all over the zone. His main secondary is a mid to upper 80’s hard slider that is a bit inconsistent and can occasionally show as a cutter. His final secondary is a change-up that he doesn’t throw that often and when I did see it, there was definitely a reason he wasn’t using it as it was often ineffective. He’s really progressed in 2024, showing improvements in lowering his walk rates, while continuing to pump the strikeouts. If we arbitrarily take his results since the beginning of June (12 games as of writing), he’s put together a 34% K rate with a 9% BB rate while limiting hitters to a .217 BAA. A sub-10% walk rate from a strikeout pitcher is where I start to feel a lot better about their starting potential. The more that trend continues, and if there are any further leaps with the change-up effectiveness, Curet can reach that mid-rotation Ceiling. This is another high risk, high reward pitching option in the product. The ingredients are there for me to be very interested in grabbing cheap shares of Curet’s cards. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6 Auto Only
Tier None
None
Texas Rangers
Tier 1
Paulino Santana, 17, OF
The Rangers may have gotten a steal for their $1.3MM. One of the top IFA’s in this year’s class, Santana was touted for his five tool potential, and he’s already showing four are very real. He’s a well-built 6’2” and has plenty of speed to both run down balls and be a threat on the bases, and that should continue as he progresses. In Santana what I see at the plate is a player who’s letting the game come to him. He looks comfortable to a fault up there. There’s so little effort in his swing, and it’s both rhythmic and ideally constructed. His approach is mature (his BB:K is over 1), but like many players of his age, he’s still learning how to go the other way with authority. As he adds strength and experience it’s easy to see organic projection to power. I am 0% concerned that he’s not showing any now (only 10 XBH in 53 games). I mean, would you be happy if he played outside himself and jacked a few dingers but spiked his K%? I’m sure he could, but no. I love what he’s showing us now. Don’t be fooled by his not being among the highest bonuses in this J15 class – he was always one of the Top 3 players, and his projection absolutely remains with that lofty status. He’s my #3 player for this product. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 8-10 Both
Tier 2
Echedry Vargas, 19, SS
Vargas is now in his third year of very nice production in pro ball. Just a well-built 5’11”, he specializes in making hard contact to the pull side. He’s always been hyper-aggressive at the plate, and that was always going to lead to higher strikeout rates at higher levels. For now it’s ticked up into the mid-20’s – acceptable considering he’s only 19 and has been playing in Low-A the whole season. Vargas struggled early on in the year, but it’s been an incremental rise in batted ball success as the months have passed – since July 15 his SLG has been around .550 (it’s mostly doubles right now), and that’s the number to pay attention to. He’s not an OBP guy, having walked only twice in that span. He does it with deceptive bat speed generated in his lower half, frequently with such force that his back leg kicks behind him. Plenty of players attempt to do what he does and don’t do it quite right, either not quite efficiently supplying power to their hips or losing control of their swing path causing them to miss too frequently. He’s so successful because his stout, strong frame lets him stay balanced, well connected, and within himself. You can see with such a technique why he’s so pull heavy, and with him it’s a feature, not a bug. It’s either going to work for him throughout his career, or he’s going to have to develop some better barrel control. Defensively his being a shortstop is mostly a masquerade – he’s a better fit for 2B or 3B, though it’s possible he retains some utility ability. Oh, and he also has above average wheels that should allow him to continue to steal 20+ bases throughout his development. There’s a fair amount of risk because he will have to adapt who he is to the increasing level of pitching talent, but man is there a nice ceiling, especially for the hobby. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 9 Both
Yolfran Castillo, 17, SS
Whoo baby the Rangers may have found a quick-rising six-figure gem. After signing for 625k this January, Castillo showed off extremely advanced defensive chops and plate skills in the DSL and moved stateside – one of only two in the 2024 IFA class to do so. His defense was less perfect in the Complex, but he still impressed with a .333 average and an extremely good feel to hit. Standing at 6’3”, he’s very lean and lacks present strength – but he stands in there with confidence, knowing his lightning quick hands can get to anything. It’s not even that good of a swing – there’s not a proper engagement of his lower half and there’s no attempt to lift anything. He’s just whipping it wherever he can, preferably pull side, but he’s already shown he can hit it to all fields. The most impressive thing about him is his batter’s eye. I watched him take many pitches with two strikes that almost any hitter his age would attempt to foul off, but he was just comfortable taking. He’s clearly able to pick up spin well already. I don’t want to go crazy with his hit tool projection, but he’s “special”. The power also has decent projection - like I said there’s a lot of refinement to make in his swing and he is trying to do damage – he just can’t quite yet. His body looks like as it fills out it would be a fantastic fit for 3B if he doesn’t end up at SS, but there’s plenty of time to firm up his defensive position. There might be a slight hesitation from the hobby in regard to the 0 career HR, but fear not. He’s not some small-bodied punch-and-judy. He’s just not mature. Guaranteed to be a good hobby name, but I think he could be a great one. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 9 Both
Braylin Morel, 18, OF
Morel was signed for just a modest amount in last year’s IFA period, but everyone who’s seen him has had their eyes wide open since he debuted. He’s already a very well built 6`2” RF-type – his athleticism was pretty bad at the time he was signed, but it’s ticked up and for now, stands as an average asset. We’re here for the power though. It’s a simple setup with just a toe-tap to one of the simplest uppercut swings you’ve ever seen. For his development, that swing is more of a curse than a blessing. See, baseball is about adaptation, and that swing doesn’t have much in the way of adaptability - it’s locked into a very small window. Sure, he has enough barrel control to put a bat on a lot of pitches. But as far as meaningful contact that’s doing actual damage, it has to be in his wheelhouse. The good thing is thus far, with his advanced physical attributes, he’s been extremely successful at punishing mistakes. And look, even at more advanced levels pitchers do make mistakes so there’s a chance at success at higher level even if nothing improves. His bat speed is quite impressive. What could he do to improve? Be more athletic in the box. And let me tell you dear readers — he was doing just that for the last few weeks of his ACL season by coming to a deeper, more crouched launch position. The results? A strikeout rate that ticked down to the low 20’s and a SLG in the high-.700 range. Yeah. You can bet he takes into the offseason and builds on it. I slow-played his wild finish just to put a point on the fact that this is truly a raw player who’s figuring things out. But his hobby ceiling is phenomenal, if just a hair lacking in true dynamism. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8 Both
Pablo Guerrero, 18, 1B/OF
There’s two Guerrero half-brothers in this set. This is the better one, although it took this year in the Complex to fully realize that. In the DSL last year he had some major quality of contact issues, though when he barreled there were some intriguing results. This year was a much improved version of that. Like his older brother early in his career, (Vlad Jr to be clear) when he connects well, he hits the ball really hard at a low launch angle. It was good to see him actually do it at a good rate this year and pop a SLG over .500 at Complex. It’s growth – and further strength projection in his already sturdy frame probably lets that become real power. The 24 XBH (8 HR) he hit in 51 ACL games are just scratching the surface. He has a really simple swing and setup with no extraordinary movement, maybe to the point of being a little stiff. In the video I watched it looked like he connected in the zone with almost every swing, though quality was still sometimes an issue. There’s a major weak spot in pitches down though. He tends to take too many low strikes, and chase pitches low that aren’t in the zone. That led to a bloated K% that it really seems rather easy to clean up. Defensively and on the bases, he’s closer to the bottom of the scale, and already seeing significant time at DH. There’s bloodlines and a clear showing of strength that is loosely tied to the same skillset as his brother. The hobby will never miss on that. He’s a very nice name. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 8 Both
Tier 3
Emiliano Teodo, 23, P
Teodo’s fastball/slider combo is absolutely filthy. When Teodo is on, hitters have no shot. The main issues are that Teodo doesn’t have the best control of his arsenal and his third pitch, a change-up, is rarely used. Two-pitch starting pitchers finding a ton of success is the exception rather than the rule, but if Teodo can learn to control his arsenal, especially the slider, he could end up being that exception. His fastball can touch triple digits, and his slider is more of the vertical breaking variety, with both pitches being plus at a minimum. The slider will give Teodo’s catcher quite a workout as he can bury it in the dirt quite a bit, even if that’s not where the catcher is setting up. Teodo’s been running 30% or better strikeout rates the moment he entered pro ball but has never had a walk rate below 12%. Until he can get below a 10% walk rate, and the time is ticking on that, he’s getting closer and closer to moving to a bullpen role. And if he does end up in the bullpen, he should end up in a high leverage role. If he sticks in the rotation, he’ll be a volatile, high strikeout pitcher that will likely be a bumpy, wild ride. As of writing, the Rangers have also moved Teodo to the development list, for whatever that’s worth. The Ceiling is potentially really high - a big time strikeout SP2 with some walk issues, but the floor is also quite low - a volatile bullpen arm. Risk: 5 Ceiling: 6 Both
Curley Martha, 17, SS
First of all, what a name. The Rangers’ 2024 J15 class isn’t one and done with Paulino Santana by any means. Martha was an $800k signer and he’s already showing some significant offensive upside and ability to play SS. I watched Martha & Santana playing in the same game, and their current playing styles couldn’t be more different. Martha is an aggressive slasher with an uppercut who swings and misses a lot, but at least this year there’s been enough contact. There’s some significant moving parts in his setup, but it’s all in the name of bat speed, which is above average for his age. He also lifts the ball very well, but there’s work to be done in the quality of his ball striking. I’ve said he’s an aggressive swinger, but he’s not without approach – I think he understands that there’s an easy medium to come to as he matures. He’s not the most projectable of players, but what he’s showing already will play well into at least average hit and power if it all comes together. With a profile of an offense-oriented utility player, he’s a good name for the hobby. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 5-7 Both
Tier None
Quincy Scott, 21, OF
A 9th Round JuCo selection last year, Scott has a contact hitter’s approach in a power hitter’s body. At 6’5” you’d think he tried to use his levers to do damage, but that is not the case. He does not make much of an attempt to really engage his lower half, instead using his hands to slash liners to all fields. As a pro it’s really only been partially successful, because a man of his size has some natural holes in his swing. Those have been exploited pretty well in his aggressive assignment to High-A with a K% near 25 and some pretty low quality of contact in general. I don’t want to write him off – there’s some tools here that haven’t clicked – but he has a long way to go. Especially considering that he’s likely to end up at 1B, there will be a lot of pressure on his bat to develop. It was a good pick for the Rangers in the 9th Round, but he’s playing like a 9th Rounder still, and that’s not great for the hobby. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Thomas Ireland, 22, P
A Saskatchewan native whose baseball journey took him to a JuCo in Florida for a year and ultimately a selection in the 13th Round of the 2021 Draft, there are far less interesting stories than Ireland. But that’s kinda where the hobby interest parts from real life. Ireland has only thrown 30 innings outside of Complex ball at age 22, and it’s not because of injury. Though he was a Complex League All-Star last year, the 6’1” lefty has shown that his stuff is not consistent. He was actually significantly worse at Complex this year. He hasn’t made the leap to showing he’ll be more than a relief pitcher at best, and it’s far more likely that he won’t make it past High-A. I hate being so negative in talking about players, but when Topps gives us 13th Round dart throws who haven’t proven anything outside of Complex at what’s now definitely an advanced age for the level, it happens. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 1 Auto Only
Toronto Blue Jays
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Andres Arias, 17, OF
He didn’t debut in the DSL until the end of July, so there’s quite the limited sample on Arias. The physically mature 6`4” OF hasn’t shown much yet, but you can imagine with that frame, power is the name of his game. Signed for 898K in January of this year, the Dominican is destined to be a corner OF already, but that’s OK if his offensive profile is what we think it is. I saw him swing and miss on three low & inside strikes in the game I watched – things like this are to be expected for a man of his size and stature who's still learning to use his body. But I also saw him lace a ground ball the other way on an outside pitch – an impressive two strike approach for a player of his age. Can we draw any definite conclusions from this, or anything he’s done yet? Nope, but I think those two examples are basically a microcosm of who he is right now. It’ll take continued maturation and a little patience, but he seems to have a nice hobby ceiling. Risk: 10 Ceiling: 6-8 Both
Tier None
Kendry Rojas, 21, P
The Cuban lefty was finally able to put some significant innings on the books in 2023, tallying 84 total at Single A. Unfortunately, a history of injuries again showed themself to kick off 2024 with a shoulder ailment cropping up shortly after his first two appearances in April. Now back on the mound as of late June, Rojas has stepped up to High-A and has started logging a starter’s workload. He’s got two flavors of the fastball, with the sinker version being his preferred pitch. Both the sinker and the four seamer live in the 92-94 mph range with occasional bumps up above that. A slider that shows good horizontal movement along with some vertical drop-off is his best secondary and his main weapon against righties. His other secondary is a change-up that regularly tails off to the arm side. His command has definitely improved this year as that, along with health, were the two biggest question marks coming into the season. I did see a bit too much of his fastballs and change-ups living off the plate or on the edge of the plate arm-side, making him a bit predictable, but that’s a small quibble compared to where he used to be. A continued jump in consistency and effectiveness in the change-up would tip the scales in favor of Rojas ending up in the rotation as opposed to the bullpen. At the moment, he’s a back-end starter with some sort of future MLB role simply because he’s left handed. The Ceiling is a mid-rotation starter, but believing in the Ceiling of any Blue Jays prospect, especially on the pitching side, is a tough ask right now. He’s a Tier None hobby prospect towards the bottom of a watch list for anyone willing to play the riskiest game of buying in on pitchers. Risk: 7 Ceiling: 4 Auto Only
Washington Nationals
Tier 1
None
Tier 2
None
Tier 3
Angel Feliz, 17, SS
Feliz signed for $1.8 MM in January, second most in the Nats’ IFA class. He’s a 6’3” infielder with plenty of projection. Notice I called him an infielder and not a SS – he’s really raw there, and though he’s played exclusively there because his speed and quickness have allowed it, he might be better suited to 3B in the long run. His speed, likewise, I would expect to tick down to merely an average asset as he matures, though he’s certainly speedy and aggressive on the bases now. His bat, if it comes together how I think it could, would absolutely play at 3B. It’s amazing how much success his raw athleticism is giving him. If you would have showed me his swing and told me he was hitting .220, I’d have believed you. It starts with high hands, and it’s a long swing with a bit of an uppercut. He also has quite a ways to go in engaging his lower half properly. But you know what he’s actually hitting? Over .300! He’s just got a really good feel for the barrel, and those hands and natural bat speed let him get the job done. When he develops a proper swing that will let him elevate the ball more, lookout. Feliz has shades of being a five-tool talent – he’s just raw. More raw than the statline shows. Take your shot Nats fans. He won’t be a quick riser, but the ceiling is clearly there. He’s down in Tier 3 as a warning, but he’s right on the cusp or Tier 2. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7-9 Both
Victor Hurtado, 17, OF
Nationals top signing out of the most recent International Free Agency class, Hurtado is the classic projectable corner outfielder with all the desired offensive tools. He was easily considered a top 25 International prospect and some places had him as high as their top 5. Hurtado looks the part as a lanky and athletic player with a compact swing from the left-hand side. While the results weren’t great in his first pass at the DSL in 2024, I’m not going to read too much into that yet. He walked enough at an 11% rate, and he kept the strikeouts at a reasonable level at 21%. Given his signing bonus/prospect pedigree, even if it didn’t come with a ton of lasting fanfare, and his potential for plus power, there is definite Tier 2 upside. For now, with the lack of results in 2024 leaving little to push the hype train, he’s going in the bucket with many of the DSL prospects in Tier 3. If his cards are cheap enough, he’s worth the lottery ticket in my opinion. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 7-9 Both
Tier None
Carlos Batista, 18, OF
Signed for $375K in the 2023 International Free Agency period, Batista to this point has really only shown a plus speed tool. The hit and power have not developed, and it’s looked even worse in Batista’s second pro season. In 37 games at the Complex in 2024, he struck out 43% of the time. I don’t need to really see any more than that to tell you I’m out on Batista. The only thing to hang your hat on is that he has stolen 42 bases in 80 career games. However, as the old axiom goes, you can’t steal first base. Lacking any real prospect pedigree outside of being named a DSL All-Star in 2023 further cements Batista into Tier None for the time being. Risk: 9 Ceiling: 3 Auto Only
Gavin Dugas, 24, 2B/3B
Dugas was a fifth year senior at LSU in 2023, and played well enough to garner interest in the Draft, where he was taken in the 6th Round. Don’t get it wrong – Dugas could’ve just as easily been signed as a UDFA – he was taken that early as a bonus-saving pick that was used to sign Travis Sykora. Dugas started this year at Low-A, where as you would hope, his maturity as a hitter shone. But the true colors of who he is are now being seen at High-A, where his K% is over 30 and his ISO is under .075. That’s a cliff that simply can’t be written off, and somewhat unexpected. He showed enough power throughout the course of his collegiate career that it should be playing in some aspect – it was his hit tool that was the bigger question. His performance has even trailed off even further as the season has progressed. Since July 1 he’s slashing in the .150/.370/.170 range. On-base skills will only get you so far, and for Dugas, it may only be one more year in organized baseball. Washington likely never expected Dugas to be more than organizational filler. As he’s close to falling even short of that, he’s not close to a name to consider for the hobby. Risk: 8 Ceiling: 1 Auto Only